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Russian Tanks Invade Georgia

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costard,

The equivalent of this thread (p. 7) on the CMSF Forum has a real find: a Stratfor geo-strategic analysis of the war and related matters, complete with the best map I've yet seen of the area. Left some of my own commentary on the article there, too.

http://www.battlefront.com/community/showthread.php?t=82992&page=7

Regards,

John Kettler

IMO: Doesn't look very intelligent, nor particularly knowledgeable at all.

Basically it's level looks to be a little short of newspaper editorial, with a somewhat fascist sounding apologist bent, all in all which doesn't really convey anything special or valuable for any reader with an IQ over 100 and capability to think critically.

It contains several grave factual errors that if it should be produced as a short essay or somefink, it would get an F grade from any self-respecting high school or college. I have seen better High School essays than this. Makes one to believe the writer is an academic fraud, or getting deranged lately, given he should know better from that background.

If his views/writings are somehow connected to ufology/conspiracy theories, I retract my comment, as I lack qualifications of the area (medicine, psychology).

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Thanks Abbott - I'm not sure H&J would care to agree.

I do think that we (Oz) should have offered Vlad a job having a go at running this country whilst sitting around waiting for his four years to pass; the guy seems to like the challenges of his profession - and is capable of rising to them. Unlike Junior.

Oh, and thanks John - I'll go take a squiz.

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Kettler, I hate to break the bad news to you, but your 'proof' is so full of holes, it is no proof at all.

All laws have exceptions.

Hell, if you did not ignore the Laws of Physics, then your pseudo-scientific believe system would not work.

RV, (and all of ESP) for example, violates the speed of light.

Your wording of your counter proof is horrid - it says 'It is common sense to refute what I (Kettler) say.'

The claim I am boorish and all that is not provable at all. That is an opinion, not a 'fact'.

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" Are we clear?"

Uhoh, here comes the threats. If you can't win the debate, shoot those who disagree with you.

So Stalinist...

BTW, Kettler, using 10 dollar words only gold plates the tinfoil.

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You know, vBulletin also has an extension that is a "global ignore". The admins can put a person on everybody's ignore list without either side knowing. Should be fairly effective.

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The counteroffensive will smash Russia.

Hey, when do we expect that counteroffensive to finally come through and 'smash Russia'?

I bet poor Pooty-Poo & Medvedev are hiding under their desk right now, holding each other tight, teeth clattering, shaking in fear of the inevitable retaliation from the mighty...oh wait, I forgot, the EU and the US are full of hot air and not much else.

Awww...too bad for Georgia.

The whole situation strikes me as funny. I've been expecting Russia to begin flexing it's muscles sooner or later, now that the US has as much military and political credibility as a junior high school bully who just got his nose smashed in by the little kid in the horn-rimmed glasses.

Maybe I'm just biased, as a Russian, but I don't see this whole thing as 'wrong' on the geo-political level (because there is no right or wrong on the geopolitical level, imo), even though the whole 'civilians dieing by the thousands' never looks quite right on the moral compass.

Why SHOULDN'T Russia try to expand as it becomes stronger? Isn't that what every country has been doing whenever it got half a chance since the beginning of civilization? Isn't that what the US has been doing, albeit more with an economical domination approach in recent times as opposed to military domination? Isn't that why we're at the top of the pile - because we ****ed over the blacks, the Native Americans, the South Americans, the Middle Easterners, the etc., etc.?

Plus one can argue that within those former Eastern Block nations, like Ukraine and Georgia, many are still divided on which side they want to ally themselves with - the West or the East. The reason they had been left-leaning so far is of course the fact that Russia didn't have much strenght of influence in the past two decades, allowing the US to install West-leaning politicians through 'elections' - how the times have changed.

Moreover I can't bring myself to care too much how it plays out, because in the end, we're all kind of ****ed when the resources start running out in a few decades. National boundries and flags won't mean much when there's no food or fresh water. A thermonuclear appocalypse almost seems like the preferred way to go out when you have mass starvation to look forward to.

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IMO: Doesn't look very intelligent, nor particularly knowledgeable at all.

Basically it's level looks to be a little short of newspaper editorial, with a somewhat fascist sounding apologist bent, all in all which doesn't really convey anything special or valuable for any reader with an IQ over 100 and capability to think critically.

It contains several grave factual errors that if it should be produced as a short essay or somefink, it would get an F grade from any self-respecting high school or college. I have seen better High School essays than this. Makes one to believe the writer is an academic fraud, or getting deranged lately, given he should know better from that background.

If his views/writings are somehow connected to ufology/conspiracy theories, I retract my comment, as I lack qualifications of the area (medicine, psychology).

I'm assuming you are commenting on this article, originally posted by Kettler, and not on one of Kettler's own opinions/posts:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russo_georgian_war_and_balance_power

If so, please do explain the factual errors present - I guess my IQ is inferior to yours (must be those superior Finnish genetics), since I found the article well written and seemingly accurate.

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That is quite a good article, if obvious to anyone, which is what SSGT seems to be saying. It also contains little specific 'fact' - it is editorial.

I'd like to know what Bush is thinking - if he is thinking.

Today we are told he has ordered C-17s to deliver aid to Georgia - aid that might be better, for the needs of Peace, to have been delivered by UPS, not the USAF.

He is poking the Bear - never a good idea.

Bush is dangerous - the sooner he gets out the better.

His complaints against the Russians ring so hollow - he is guilty of everything he pins on Putin and Friends.

We have all seen these scenarios in the past we read about, and the Balkan Wars of the 90s.

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That is quite a good article, if obvious to anyone, which is what SSGT seems to be saying. It also contains little specific 'fact' - it is editorial.

I dunno, SSGT said it could be appreciated by only those of below average intelligence and would get an F as an essay, which to me sounds like he doesn't agree with it. That's fine, I'd just like to know why.

I'd like to know what Bush is thinking - if he is thinking.

Today we are told he has ordered C-17s to deliver aid to Georgia - aid that might be better, for the needs of Peace, to have been delivered by UPS, not the USAF.

He is poking the Bear - never a good idea.

Bush is dangerous - the sooner he gets out the better.

His complaints against the Russians ring so hollow - he is guilty of everything he pins on Putin and Friends.

We have all seen these scenarios in the past we read about, and the Balkan Wars of the 90s.

Well US humanitarian aid is OK - though Georgia's pres immediately said that the US was sending military aid, when in fact that seems not to be the case. I think Saakashvili is so terrified at the moment, with Russian armor within 40 miles of his capital, he will say anything publicly that will make it look like he isn't up **** creek without a paddle.

Russia wouldn't attack American aid workers obviously, but they can still continue the occupation of Georgia while saying there's a cease fire and in fact all operations have come to a halt - which is precisely what they've been doing ever since Sarkozy thought he'd solved the situation with the cease fire agreement on Monday (or was it Tuesday?).

Bush is of course the very reason this shift in power has occured. Rather ironic considering how conservatives thought they were actually making America's influence stronger by supporting him.

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Heh, the difference is between proximate and ultimate causes. Most people above average intelligence are interested about the latter, because searching them can widen their understanding.

The proximate causes presented in the article, are based on obsolete views about power politics, and even if we would accept such views as our guiding principles, let's say for academic exercise, we should recognize that Russia's military is not even close of becoming a real threat or factor, apart from her aging nuclear deterrent, many observations about it on the popular media are grossly exaggerated and despite of the raw materials trading she has recently engaged herself into, Russian economy is not even close of becoming diversified, let alone self-sustainable, meaning that she would face almost an instant collapse and social turmoil without imports and other key services from the West. Russia needs the West more than vice versa. Only a salesman belonging to a military-industrial complex would try to imply otherwise. Or a tabloid press reporter. Russia has not developed infrastructure to either sell or buy enough to keep her economy going with Asia alone.

One cannot eat balance sheets or foreign financial investment. Aggression and propaganda is something that can quite easily turn against its sender.

The CSCE was not about committing the Soviet/Russian' Empire to eternal perpetuity, let alone rest of Europe's borders, it was about Human Rights. Ironically, the Soviet/KGB planners missed this CSCE's true meaning, and once again it's quite likely that such unforeseen happenstance is waiting Mr. Putin and tabloid press analysts, on all sides of the political spectrum.

Back to proximate causes: Serbia captured and extradited Mr. Karadzic, a war criminal, recently. Why did they do that? Especially if we were somehow to believe that the Russian Empire is back with a full throttle and vengeance?

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(snip) Maybe I'm just biased, as a Russian, but I don't see this whole thing as 'wrong' on the geo-political level

Is that just yours and Putin's point of view or do many of your fellow Russians feel the same way? (do you know)

I mean is the general Russian public opinion "feck Georgia"? If so is there a why other then everything's fair in politics?

Anyway it's good to hear an opinion from the other side, I hope you keep posting.

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Heh, the difference is between proximate and ultimate causes. Most people above average intelligence are interested about the latter, because searching them can widen their understanding.

Ah, in that case I can solve all further discussions on military politics for us by 'revealing' that the ultimate cause here is the same as always in matters of war - lust for power, of which no nation is not guilty of at some point in their history.

So what? It's human nature after all.

If I'm down and you're up, it's only natural for me to feel envious of your position and try to better my own, possibly by toppling you. Been going on forever, probably not going to stop until we're all either a) dead, or B) constantly stoned on LSD to the point where the most aggresive action we can muster is to gather in a circle and play drums.

Some nations, through their unique geography/culture/etc. will naturally be more able to express and act on this lust for power then others - like the United States and Russia today.

The proximate causes presented in the article, are based on obsolete views about power politics, and even if we would accept such views as our guiding principles, let's say for academic exercise, we should recognize that Russia's military is not even close of becoming a real threat or factor, apart from her aging nuclear deterrent, many observations about it on the popular media are grossly exaggerated and despite of the raw materials trading she has recently engaged herself into, Russian economy is not even close of becoming diversified, let alone self-sustainable, meaning that she would face almost an instant collapse and social turmoil without imports and other key services from the West. Russia needs the West more than vice versa. Only a salesman belonging to a military-industrial complex would try to imply otherwise. Or a tabloid press reporter. Russia has not developed infrastructure to either sell or buy enough to keep her economy going with Asia alone.

One cannot eat balance sheets or foreign financial investment. Aggression and propaganda is something that can quite easily turn against its sender.

Interesting. Please let me know which of the causes presented you view as obsolete views.

Now as for Russia's military. As well funded, trained and equipped as the United States? No, not yet ;)

Does it matter? Nope! For all it's capabilities, the US military is stretched thin and even had it not been, there is no way the American public would support a confrontation with Russia. Even with the most optimistic, pro-Western, anti-Russian lens, only a fool would expect such a confrontation to be easy for the United States. And Americans have no stomach for blood, unless the cause strikes very close to home.

Most Americans probably couldn't find Georgia on a map, much less care to die for it.

Your general opinions remind me with some amusement of how some of the editors of The Exile had commented on 'The Economist' magazine's constant criticism of Russia throughout the last few years. Basically along the same line 'Their economy ain't that great!' 'Sure they're getting stronger but not that strong!', 'Putin's a thug and murdering Chechnians!' etc.

Basically the Exile editors (Americans living in Russia, btw) mocked the Economist as really trying hard to play down Russia's resurgence all the while knowing that American influence, economy and military was doing the complete opposite due to the Iraq war. All the while Russia's economy kept improving, the military kicked the crap out of the remaining Chechnians and now - well, here's Tom with the weather :D

Of course, you MIGHT be right - only time will tell how this will play out, but I don't think Putin is dumb enough to sacrifice YEARS of work building up to this moment if he wasn't quite confident that the best the West could muster would be a limp-wristed whimper. Once again, we will see. Say what you want about Putin, but he ain't stupid.

Back to proximate causes: Serbia captured and extradited Mr. Karadzic, a war criminal, recently. Why did they do that? Especially if we were somehow to believe that the Russian Empire is back with a full throttle and vengeance?

While I don't have a comment on the Serbian war criminal, I do not think that the Russian Empire is back on full throttle - 1/3rd throttle perhaps, but certainly not full yet. These events do mark the stages of resurgence though, as this war would not have been possible a few years ago.

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We have heard all this before....if Russia were to push too hard, they might get into real trouble. If they thought for a moment they could get completely away with it ala 56, 68, then Georgia would be completely crushed and no amount of US/Euro political influence would stop them, but they have stopped.

This goes well beyond military policy, as we all know, and Russia is mistaken if thy think their only source of being taken seriously is to practice war.

The article we are discussing does have one inherent huge factual error - it claims that The former Warsaw Pact was part of the Soviet Empire. It also slights the Baltic States, who the US never recognized as part of the Soviet Empire - a collection of States that were never part of the Russian Empire and should of been set free after WW2. We all know the history of those States. (By the way, I agree the article is on the viewpoint of days gone past and is alarmist at best.)

Now, I am not trying to be all gringo, but one should not think the US is without options, even military ones.

But these words below remind me of a certain cast of characters all throughout history - words that cause an awful lot of trouble post under estimation.

We would not support entering Russia, but we would support our new formerly Warsaw Pact allies, which the Russians dare not attack - they could not handle those States inherent forces with US aid backing them up.

I think the Russians know that.

===================================================

Does it matter? Nope! For all it's capabilities, the US military is stretched thin and even had it not been, there is no way the American public would support a confrontation with Russia. Even with the most optimistic, pro-Western, anti-Russian lens, only a fool would expect such a confrontation to be easy for the United States. And Americans have no stomach for blood, unless the cause strikes very close to home.

Most Americans probably couldn't find Georgia on a map, much less care to die for it.

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Ah, in that case I can solve all further discussions on military politics for us by 'revealing' that the ultimate cause here is the same as always in matters of war - lust for power,

Now as for Russia's military. As well funded, trained and equipped as the United States?

While I don't have a comment on the Serbian war criminal, I do not think that the Russian Empire is back on full throttle - 1/3rd throttle perhaps, but certainly not full yet. These events do mark the stages of resurgence though, as this war would not have been possible a few years ago.

So there is no cause by Georgia? This is nothing more then an act of expansion? Is there anything to support this other then your opinion?

I see your profile says New York, are you in contact with folks in Russia (at the present time), what is their opinions of the war?

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Is that just yours and Putin's point of view or do many of your fellow Russians feel the same way? (do you know)

I mean is the general Russian public opinion "feck Georgia"? If so is there a why other then everything's fair in politics?

Anyway it's good to hear an opinion from the other side, I hope you keep posting.

Not only my fellow Russians, but millions of Ukrainians, Belorussians and Georgians. It's not 'feck Georgia' though, since Russians have always loved visiting Georgia during the Soviet days as an exotic land. Georgians as an ethnic minority have also had a love/hate thing in the general Russian public, sort of like I guess American whites have for American blacks. They're 'different' and often 'cool', but don't let them too close to our girls ;)

There's definitely not the sort of animosity that Russians have for say, Chechnians, who are pretty much despised.

As for 'Why?'

Hmm, well, power on the state level translates into better living conditions and prosperity for the citizenry. Even the corrupt and inefficient system of the USSR was preferred by many to the chaotic poverty of the post-collapse Eastern Europe.

Of course, many Russians despise Putin and think (quite rightly, given the fact that he's still a politician after all, that most scum-sucking of all scum sucking professions) that given the chance he'll bankroll all his buddies and bail, with the country in ruin - and that might happen too. For now, he's still considered by the majority Russia's best bet for a prosperous and powerful future.

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It does seem that Georgia started this, but Russia was hoping it would.

As to crushing Chechens - small enclave - took a long, long time. I think a long time commitment in Georgia would of wrecked the Russians.

Russia might have blinked on this one. Defending SO was one thing; trying to take and cut off Tblisi was another.

As to Americans finding things on maps, I bet the Average New Yorker could not find Georgia, USA on a map :)

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As to crushing Chechens - small enclave - took a long, long time.

Though the Chechens were solidly reinforced by Jihadists from all the usual sources. They marketed it well as a Muslim war. That wouldn't be the case in Georgia.

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So there is no cause by Georgia? This is nothing more then an act of expansion? Is there anything to support this other then your opinion?

I see your profile says New York, are you in contact with folks in Russia (at the present time), what is their opinions of the war?

Well...not being a military analyst closely working with the Putin administration...I can only guess, same as everyone else.

It seems pretty obvious though - Russian funded South Ossetians seperatists provoked Georgia's military response at a time when Russia correctly estimated the US would not be able to offer much support.

Seems to be 'expansionist', or at least a reaction to the other America-Russia confrontations like those over Iran, Kosovo, the missile shield in Poland & Czech Republic, etc.

I live in San Francisco now actually, and even though I have family in Russia I doubt everyone's of the same opinion. A lot of people are rather pleased with Russia's actions, some are horrified.

Sort of like US-public's opinion on Iraq when it first started I suppose...

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