danfrodo

I keep thinking that. They'll run out of arty tubes, IFVs & tanks, we think, based on the loss rates. But I also keep questioning whether we are being the german general staff circa 1941/2, where we continually think they are running out of everything but turns out.....

One point missed on the Trump thing: he has borrowed money from RU oligarchs. We know this because his son admitted it on video ~10 years ago or so. He was mocking the US banks the wouldn't loan to the serial defaulter anymore and said (paraphrase) 'we just borrow from RU instead'. Also RU oligarchs had bought some of his properties at oddly non-market prices, leading to some wondering about money laundering. So when we talk about what Trump would do we need to recognize the very high probability that he is on some level a leveraged RU asset. And his behavior toward Putin/RU has certainly been like that over the years. Plus Zelensky refused his extortion racket which led to Trump's first impeachment (he was completely guilty, by the way). So pretending he'd be doing anything statesmanlike or diplomatic is absurd. He would serve Putin and abandon Ukraine.

A few good bits here today. Videos showing RU dead and destroyed. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/7/2239426/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Ukraine-arrests-two-colonels-in-plot-to-kill-Zelensky?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web So there's been posts that RU is running out of tubes/arty systems, yet they seem to still be firing, a lot. RU losing tanks & IFVs at a shocking pace, but they still keep coming. Personnel loses are shocking, even if we cut UKR reports by 1/2, yet they keep coming. I can see how RU won't run out of meat, but the other stuff seems in endless supply, though of dwindling quality. So what is Putin actually up to? He's taking massive losses to gain small amounts of ground. Does he think UKR will actually buckle? Or is he simply and cynically getting every hectare he can because he just doesn't care about cost? He's burning up a lot of resources and so it would seem he has zero fear of UKR exploiting his depletion of forces. Meanwhile, I suppose he's hoping somehow UKR or the west loses the will to continue and seeks a bad settlement. But at the same time his own infrastruture is starting to take a beating. This is classic, where the dictator starts war and then just keeps doubling down no matter the cost to the country. Meanwhile, we wait until probably summer of 2025 for UKR to be able to somehow challenge this on the battlefield?

wanna weaken Putin even more? how about this kinda stuff? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/battery-electricity-solar-california-texas.html California getting huge amount of its energy via solar in april and adding batteries to the mix starts to provide that ~free energy on-demand. Imagine Putin w/o the petro money spigot. The more big energy users that move away from fossil fuels, the smaller the market, the less money to the monster. For more good fun, imagine the loathsome saudis w/o petro money. They would have nothing but dry, worthless sand.

Which brings us to the question of what is China really doing? Are they just trying to make a few bucks while also keeping their old adversary weak? If they wanted RU to actually win they'd be giving the good stuff like the west is giving. Are they just trying to play both sides where they support RU enough to save face w Putin but also not so much as to anger the west? And make a few bucks at the same time?

holy moly, huge body count from UKR strike on a RU training site. ~100 bodies. Plus bradley pounding MTLB & russian armor getting mauled, always a pick-me-up. Plus some further tragedy for UKR people in the form of lost young heroes & other stuff. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/1/2238296/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-ATACMS-destroys-Russian-training-site?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

Thanks for the info @ThathumanHayden and @Halmbarte But y'all are making me sad. I want to destroy T64s, by the dozens. Nothing worse than rounds bouncing off a T64. A sherman or T34 vs panther frontal armor I am used to bouncing shells, but in the cold war I really want to win. Once the module arrives I am sure I will welcome the challenge. I suppose I should think of how I handle shermans, where I need to be creative if I'm gonna win against superior armor. I wonder if we'll get a brit module someday with the challenger 1s? Will those shred T64s?

So the chieftain gun not any better than the M60 gun? Maybe some experts here have some insight on this?

Thanks for sharing this. I knew very little about chieftain except that it had weird engine. This was a really good primer. I really like the sloped turret on the chieftain, nice design. Looking forward to using it against them dang commies.

This youtuber continues to post really good frontline analysis. His youtube channels have been under attack, which I think says something good about him. The headlines are over the top, but the video content is much more serious.

wow, that was close! I bet you were shouting at your screen "FIRE FIRE FIRE YOUR WEAPON FIRE YOUR DAMN WEAPON!!" Or maybe that's just something I do

We expect UKR to exploit these vulnerable salients, and sometimes they do make attacks on them. But in general we don't see UKR choosing to do this in any meaningful way. These are new, unfortified flanks, yet UKR hasn't the will or strength to contest them as strongly as one might hope. Is this due to lack of artillery (thanks to the US delays)? Is it RU FPVs/arty making cutting those flanks too costly? Is UKR simply too weak or too casualty averse? Is it UKR just wanting to play the delay/attrit card and is willing to lose the territory? Is UKR building up for something else? Every time I see these salients I hope to see it cut off and right now it's just not happening, for whatever reason.

That's a painful one for sure! Lose the tank, lose the men, lose your well laid plans, all w one shell. Or was it an FPV drone? -- awfully precise for artillery. Thanks for sharing, as always.

I think first we'd want to invade Canada & dethrone the woke socialists in Ottawa. "First we take Hull, then we take Berlin!" as the old song goes.

Much thanks to @The_Capt for the excellent analysis over last few pages. So yer sayin' there's a chance UKR to actually go on the offensive someday...... I think recruiting in UKR might go better if there's a clear line to offensive action. Easier to get folks to sign up for offense & victory than for getting ground down in a trench for weeks at a time doing holding actions. I'm hoping there's a big chunk of UKR army actually training & preparing for offensive action, I suppose in 2025? Or if things go right maybe later in 2024. As TheCapt said (paraphrase), keep shaping and be ready for offensive action when there's an opportunity.