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exsonic01

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exsonic01 last won the day on May 26

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About exsonic01

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    Somewhere middle of the dusty valley CA
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    Chemistry, Tanks, and Games

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  1. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    After long while, I returned to here, but why this thread become warzone about Trump? Lets focus on Korea guys. As a thread starter, I feel some responsibility to open such battlefield. If this thread flows in this way, this thread will be closed.
  2. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    This is the true reality of DPRK. No propaganda, no politics, but the true testimony from a person who escaped from DPRK for her life. (Not only her, but also the most of DPRK defectors have more or less similar opinion) True face of DPRK communism is pure evil. I really can't understand why everyone is hyped about such peace deal with crazy Kim. Everyone knows what happened after Neville Chamberlain made Munich agreement with Hitler!! PEACE always looks cool and sounds great. But if anyone too obsessed with PEACE and commit a stupid mistake, then the outcome will be unfathomable. Peace without weapon and will to fight is just surrender, nothing more. I would rather be a person who prepare more weapon and ammunition, rather than a person who open the door to pure evil in the name of PEACE. http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/391788-graham-anything-trump-negotiates-with-north-korea-will-have-to-come-to Trump's deal need to pass the congress. Let's see what will going to happen. But many senators and congressmen are worrying about the deal.
  3. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    Yesterday's summit deal was really really bad deal. I think Trump is dreaming of Nobel peace prize way too much, so that he is doing the same mistake again. http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/06/12/trump-should-give-kim-30-days-to-produce-denuclearization-plan-or-intensify-sanctions.html This is just opinion, not official news article. But I agree with this one. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/12/asia/kim-trump-success-for-north-korea-intl/index.html?no-st=1528824033 And yeah, I agree with this one too. Crazy Kim doesn't even need to give up anything. There's no "CVID" in the agreement paper. If Trump really thinks that he can "deal & solve" with crazy Kim dynasty and DPRK with the same methods of last two decades, then this mistake will eventually return to him, maybe during his re-election campaign or other time. They will cheat us again and they will come back with better nukes in their hands. Then, what Trump will going to say? He can't do anything at that moment if he is under other burdens on his hands. I don't know what is the mind of Trump and his cabinet. But if we can't do strict and broad CVID within very short period of time, we will fail. If DPRK does not accept that, we need to cancel the deal and increase the level of pressure to DPRK. https://www.jpost.com/International/Did-Trump-achieve-what-Obama-couldnt-559770 Look at this, even Israeli paper is criticizing this talk and Trump XD lol I really didn't expect this. All of those shows how bad the Trump's deal was.
  4. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    Hmmmmm... at least I tried not to be political about this topic, I only do when "someone" being political first. I will try not to be political more in the future.
  5. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    Pompeo and Kim Yong Chul is having a meeting now. Pompeo mentioned that there is a "real progress" but "significant challenges remained and predicted more “tough moments and difficult times” as the two sides negotiated." And he mentioned it is not clear yet whether the talk will be held at 12th June or not. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/05/31/pompeo-says-north-korean-official-to-deliver-personal-letter-from-kim-jong-un-to-white-house.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/31/world/asia/trump-kim-korea-summit.html https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/31/politics/us-north-korea-talks-new-york/index.html Besides, Taiwan and HongKong news suggests the possibility of Russia - PRC - DPRK summit talks before US-DPRK talk: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3443887 SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) is the block of Russia, PRC, and old-soviet nations except Pakistan and India. While I'm not sure would whether Kim will really be at Shanghai, maybe very high ranking profile might be there and have a talk with Russia and PRC. This is not a good sign for US-DPRK summit talk.. If this talk (Kim-Putin-Xi meeting) really happens, this might be a good indication of incoming era of "new" cold war. Personally, I'm really not sure, is the talk really good idea. Strict level of CVID will require a lot of things, I'm suspicious if DPRK will accept it. Even though they agree with strict CVID, what if they lie to us again? What would we do if they dig a nuke in very deep deep mountain of the northern part of DPRK or somewhere very ordinary & plain place, and bring it later in their convenient time? Also, some sources say DPRK already hide key scientists by "identity washing" like our Witness Protection program. How do we find those people if they lie to us? Any "talk" requires the trust between each other, but they have so many ways to cheat us again. Recent CIA report suggests that DPRK will never give up their nuke program: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/cia-report-says-north-korea-won-t-denuclearize-might-open-n878201 Let's watch what will happen from Pompeo-Kim talk, and see what kind of DPRK reaction will be there.
  6. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    I mentioned in previous post that current RoK leadership is very pro-DPRK and pro-PRC. Those Korean liberal groups are mostly stands for Korean-ethnic nationalism and socialism. The most of cabinet members and president himself of RoK were members of ultra-left organizations like "University student front" or etc, almost all of them were linked with DPRK directly or indirectly. They only little bit changed their attitude toward US and DPRK. This is not the first time RoK behaves strangely like this. RoK liberal leaderships in the past were also pro-DPRK and pro-PRC, more or less. Robert Gates once mentioned president Roh as "anti-American and probably a little crazy" in his book. Current president Moon was the secretary general of president Roh at that time. Novel peace prize winner, president Kim dae jung was also involved in illegal money transfer to DPRK back in 2003. http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/02/13/kim.scandal/ Under this circumstance, I don't see why and how we are played. It is current RoK leadership who doesn't want to stand with us, not us who want to push them or being fooled by DPRK's plan to create space between US and RoK. See what current RoK advisor said about US-RoK relation: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/05/moon-south-korea-us-alliance/560501/ I think Koreans, especially Korean liberals, are very two-faced. I'm curious about whether they consider us as an ally or not. They want to sell their car, steel, phone, and all those goods to us, and they want to "look good" with us so that foreign investors & banks keep invest to RoK and they can keep their credit rating high enough. Yet, at the same time, they wish to turn down the relationship between us and them when we need their help as an alliance. I'm very suspicious that some of current RoK cabinet might be DPRK spies, maybe or maybe not. Anyway, what I want to say is, it is not our fault if RoK get away from us, it is their fault. And I don't think we need to beg to RoK to keep alliance with us. If they don't want us, fine, let them go. But considering the dependency of overall Korean economy on us, I think they can't just neutralize US-RoK alliance. In some sense I agree with you, I already expected and mentioned that there will be a US-DPRK talk, but any draft or agreement will be very ambiguous, and deal will be crushed due to collision on details, like recent Iran deal was broken. Key is, DPRK can't accept CVID, while we wish to push not only CVID but also hacking issues and overall NBC(Nuke Bio Chemical) weapons. And "maximum pressure" will be applied. Kim wants to earn some time before full weaponization of their nukes, so we better hurry if we want to do something. But I don't see what kind of advantages he get. I agree with this. I also think those talks with commies might be a waste of time honestly, because DPRK will never accept CVID. (I think Bolton expressed his concern in similar fashion) But at the same time, this can work as the final warning to DPRK, and I think Trump maybe wish to check by himself about what Kim is really willing to do. After this talk, they will be forced to choice something. If they keep their nuke program after the talk (which I expect), then the pressure will never be the same as before, and I think this time the pressure will include PRC. Honestly, I think all of those recent events are aiming towards PRC, and DPRK issue is just one of the way to find a good reason to take an action against PRC. This is just my guess, but I think Trump himself maybe knows that DPRK will not accept CVID plus etc, then pressure will be applied, then PRC will support DPRK, then we can start big sanctions against PRC and so on.... Not sure about this part regarding PRC so take a bit salt on this opinion XD I think they are doing typical good cop bad cop approach towards DPRK. When Bolton throws very hard ball, then Trump and Pompeo try to look "soft" during interview or etc. In some sense I agree, maybe PRC can playing against us using ZTE network and machines in the future, but I think it is not such a huge disaster like your claim. This can be an another leverage for us. ZTE sanction is another warning sign to PRC, let them know what can we do against them. Remember, we can give sanction again whenever we want, or when we find ZTE doing suspicious. So that PRC won't do any stupid things against us in the future regarding DPRK issue, South china sea and Taipei China issue and etc....
  7. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    Well, Trump canceled the meeting yesterday, which I also didn't expect. I was skeptical about meaningful result, but I thought at least they would have a talk. But I think this was a good decision. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-24/north-korea-talks-trump-can-win-by-walking-away This is just one of the reader opinions from Bloomberg, but I mostly agree with this article. Then suddenly, DPRK changed their mind, saying aggressive comments were DPRK diplomat's personal opinions, and mentioned they want to start the talk. Plus, they mentioned "President Trump" in their official statement. LOL, they never clearly stated "President Trump" before, and it was not long ago that DPRK statement blamed Trump, Bolton and Pence like "crazy warmongers will be on hellfire if they do anything stupid on 'holy' Juche nation". Funny to watch them in panic. Where have all those guts were gone? XD Typical cowards. Not sure whitehouse will re-accept the talk offer, but IMO pressure to DPRK and PRC will be increased. Folks are saying that strict financial sanction like BDA account squeeze will be also considered.
  8. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    Haha. You may say that I'm biased, but I'm not biased, and those examples I listed in previous post are 100% truth. Look at the history, communist nations were used to rely on control and force, and they are still the same. I met a person who escaped from DPRK for better future and human dignity, a person who lived in Russia (including Soviet Union era) and moved to US for better opportunity, and Chinese American who lived the most of his life in China. Conclusion from conversations with those people were always the same: communism is failed system. I can list more and more examples of commie backstabbing in international relation and commie style oppression to their own people. And now you are blaming humanity to advocate the failed system...... lol. You, or anyone can't hide the failure of communism by watering down the truth using 'noble' concepts like humanity.
  9. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    PRC agreed to reduce trade deficit, which they officially and unofficially refused/denied to do so for last several months. Now they agree with that term without any condition. For that part, I think we got a small advantage. However, there are no any details are mentioned about how, so I can understand your concern about this. We shall watch this part. I think part of the reason why we didn't included the detail is to watch the DPRK situation, and resume tariffs and leverages against PRC if it is necessary. On the other hand, I still believe that there are other methods to give some pressure to PRC. I was thinking like you until I watch this: At least one thing is true: There are lots of Israeli spies in wide aspect of Iranian social/political/military infrastructure and hierarchy, and they are good at their job. I think there should be a serious level of mole hunt in Iran now. While I agree with your point that the intention of previous deal was legit and good enough, but it fails to push Iranians to give up their nukes, failed to broke the will of Iranians to continue their nuke problem. Continuation of previous deal might be a losing game to us. Yes, we broke the deal, but they played bad first, why should we? I think this is another declaration from us that we will never going to be fooled again, whoever the opposite is. You have some misjudgment about me. I have a Chinese neighbor, office mate from Guangzhou , and fishing mate came from Hong Kong, and my academic adviser when I was PhD came from Russia. I knew some DPRK defectors when I was in Korea. Me and my wife have a good relation with all those folks, we respect them and their culture and they respect ours, they were truly good humans with nice character, and I'm in still in contact with some of them. I have no emotion towards normal individuals, BUT, still, I hate government and leadership of PRC and DPRK, and overall communism system with ultra maximum prejudice. If anyone who zealously advocate such broken and corrupt system, I will call them 'commies' whatever others say to me. As a half Korean / half American, I have some good personal reason to hate commies. Both of my family (my mom's and dad's) lost some of family members to the communists during battle from Korea and Vietnam. On top of that, I myself served in RoK army for 26 months long time ago and I was able to learn some about history of cold war and communists strategies. Not everyone negotiates in bad faith. Usually, we approached to the problem in good will and hope and good intention, and it is them who exploits the our good gesture and trust to maximize their gain. Similar history repeated over and over again. Their system is corrupt and good enough to compare with mindless block. Communism is failed system and it is too ideal to realize. Unlike its original intention, communism make their own strict authoritarian structure, which largely rely on force and terror from brutal leadership and strong control over communities. Soviet Union crushed, PRC become Oceania of George Orwell's 1984, DPRK become crazy dynasty, Cambodian Khmerokraham made "Killing Field", Mao's Great Leap Forward movement killed huge number of innocent people. DDR is another great example, please check the movie "The Lives of Others", which depicts the true face of communism behind the curtains of propaganda. Speaking of cold war, IMO we are approaching to new cold war era really fast, which is totally different and more complicated from the Cold War in the past. I maybe wrong, but it feels like the war among idealogies is far from over yet, at least to me.
  10. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    I agree that US is really bad at negotiating, previous deals only allowed Iran and DPRK to let them play what they want. Regarding commie strategy, I think you may right, but I can add more to help to understand. Maybe I can add later in this post, about how "commies" behave during any conflict and peace talks during cold war. We still have some cards to press PRC economically. China surrenders to us regarding trade deficit, but detail is still left to be finished. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/19/us/politics/china-trade-deal.html http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/05/20/mnuchin-says-us-has-deal-with-china-to-cut-trade-deficit-will-hold-off-on-tariffs.html But there are other issues like unfair trade, intellectual property & copyright infringement and etc. IMO copyright issue is the one of the prime weakness of so many PRC companies. We'll see what will happen. Nuclear test site is another show. https://abcnews.go.com/International/north-korea-dismantling-nuclear-test-site/story?id=55287694 "Can the process be reversed? If the political winds change once more, the collapsed tunnels could easily be re-excavated. Ankit Panda of Asia-Pacific affairs magazine The Diplomat reported that a U.S. intelligence assessment determined it would take mere "weeks to months" for Pyongyang to reverse course." They can recover test site whenever they want, and they can rebuild another one in different place.
  11. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    I was very busy with real life so couldn't update, but I think everyone in this forum saw what happened recently so far. A lot of people around me (and in this forum) were very very hyped about RoK-DPRK talk. Some even expected the "perestroika" in DPRK. But see what is happening now. I think people are tooooooo optimistic or too easily hyped/triggered by concepts like 'peace'. We need to see this realistically. Such naive thinking based on hope is the one commies love to exploit and use. When commies says "peace talk", never trust that. Commie's "peace talk" is usually to show something useful for them, or they have another purpose. They never say "peace" when they have good cards in their deck. History proves it, and it can happen again now. See how Kim flipped the RoK-DPRK head talks now. See what happened during and after Paris Peace Accords. I already mentioned that I'm skeptical about talks (Both US-DPRK and RoK-DPRK). Regarding US-DPRK talk, I think it will not gonna happen. Even though they have a talk, I think it will not that positive. Maybe they can agree something, very vague and unclear one, but detail contents will never be agreeable between two parties. Because DPRK will never accept CVID, but US will never allow weaponized nuke in DPRK. Furthermore, US want to include chemical and bio weapons, and hacking issues as well. Kim will never going to accept that. Same goes to 'perestroika' in DPRK. Kim will never give up his dynasty and he knows the opening/exposing his system to outside will surely bring the end of the dynasty. If Kim dynasty ever thought about 'perestroika', they've already done, during grandpa Kim or papa Kim. But instead, Kim dynasty purged anyone who claims about 'change'. So better throw away the hope of any natural change from inside DPRK, unless coup. Also, naivety of RoK is way too serious than my expectation, I mean, IMO they really think they can make peace deal with Kim dynasty, which is total stupidity. To me, it seems that the current RoK leadership desperately want to repeat the same mistake again - trusting DPRK and Kim. I think the next step will be the naval blockade, and increase economic pressure to PRC to prevent any support to DPRK. Let's see what will going to happen.
  12. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    Well, looks like we need to put more focus to DPRK
  13. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    This is because Kim Il Sung (first king of Kim Dynasty, the man who initiated Korean War) refuse PLA and Russian forces inside DPRK territory back in 1950s. PLA stationed in DPRK until 1958, and Mao really wanted to continue the station of PLA forces inside DPRK, but grandpa Kim strongly wanted to remove them. DPRK-Soviet-PRC relations were much more complex than nowdays. DPRK-PRC relation was really bad around 1958 after withdrawal of PLA troops, and Kim tried to close to Soviet. On the other hand, after ~10 yrs later, during Sino-Soviet border conflict, Kim supported Mao. In my opinion, grandpa Kim never fully trusted PRC and Soviet. Also, grandpa Kim was afraid of too much intervention or influence from foreign communist nations, and he doesn't want pro-PRC or pro-Soviet communists take power inside DPRK politics (which could be the potential threat to Kim Dynasty) so he purged almost all pro-foreign DPRK generals and politicians after Korean war. IMO politics around Kim family is more cruel and cold-blooded than any mafia around the world. This is the reason why there are no PLA or Russian army in DPRK. Fair now?
  14. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    India and Pakistan developed the nuke during cold-war era and US and Soviet had their own plan and thinking about their nukes. It is totally different story from the situation of 2018. On top of that, the fundamental difference between DPRK and your examples is the stability and reliability of DPRK system. At least modern India and Pakistan is not dynasty. What happens if hardliners of DPRK attempt a coup and get the control of nuke? Another issue is the credibility. DPRK has been ignored every single treaty, promise, agreement and etc.... and they developed long range missiles and weaponized nukes despite of all those talks, supports, or sanctions. Kim's regime just cannot be trusted at all. Risk of DPRK nuke is fundamentally and entirely different problem. Yeah, his nuke and missiles are not even close to the level of US or Russians and hard to threat US mainland now, but it is matter of time after he get one operational. Not to mention DPRK nuke will be threat to our allies like Japan and ANZAC. Plus, DPRK nuke will bring next level of nuke domino. We'll see what will happen. The basic problem of mentioning MICs is that people, including you sir, way too much overestimates their ability and influence. Profit margin and annual revenue of those MICs are barely close to 1% of total GDP of US, and not comparable to top 10 US companies. They are small companies, and they are not 'specially treated' by politicians like liberals or hollywood movies depict. MICs are just same companies like others, wish to make profit and survive. Defense industry is very competitive and it is very hard to make a significant margin from the current system. Jobs? Yes, they can make jobs, but do you know how many jobs GM created, and how many jobs top 5 MICs created last year? Can you find any weapons or defense-related contents are included in top 10 US exports list last year? Position and scale of defense industry is not that massive neither politically influential like some people think. I wish to point this out.
  15. exsonic01

    Next Korean war is coming close...

    http://time.com/5216544/north-korea-kim-jong-un-beijing-xi-jinping-donald-trump-denuclearization/ https://www.inquisitr.com/4842964/kim-jong-uns-visit-to-china-may-mean-north-koreas-nuclear-program-is-complete-according-to-time/ Some experts are saying that the visitation of Kim to PRC may implies Kim wish to show his will to continue the nuke program and will not yield to western nations. Or, Kim wish to talk to Xi that DPRK's nuke program is ready finished, and he wish to assure more support / supply. http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2138797/russia-wants-build-another-bridge-north-korea-so-trade-doesnt https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/03/24/russia-wants-to-build-a-bridge-to-north-korea-literally/ Despite of all those sanctions, Russia recently decided to restart the bridge building between DPRK and Russia, this may suggest that Russia will resume its DPRK support/trade program. This is already cold war 2 in Asia instead of Europe, PRC + DPRK + Russia vs RoK + Japan + US. It seems that DPRK-US tension regarding denuclearization will not going to be finished soon.
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