ArmouredTopHat

This footage came out a few days ago, but it seems the Lancet was potentially destroyed. 

Its hilarious watching the Russian government officials get reduced to this level

Could it not contain elements of both? Point defence exists on ships for a reason even if they have various layers of AD well before that. 

Its hilarious watching the Russian government officials get reduced to this level

Its hilarious watching the Russian government officials get reduced to this level

This footage came out a few days ago, but it seems the Lancet was potentially destroyed. 

I really do think people are onto something with the FPV counter UAV usage. This could really have a tangible effect on the battlefield. 

So this is where the future of UAS symmetry lies to my mind.  Not expensive centralized point defence or EW. A UAS CAP able to interdict kms out.  Now we will have a battlespace of clouds akin to naval warfare.  But unlike naval warfare there can be much higher distribution and dispersion.

Its hilarious watching the Russian government officials get reduced to this level

This footage came out a few days ago, but it seems the Lancet was potentially destroyed. 

ah yes, he totally makes sense.  WTF?  Do you have any actual idea what comes out of this lunatic's mouth?  It's hard to even know where to start if you think this anti-competent psycopath is the answer to any of america's problems.  But you might as well dig deeper your ditch of dwindling respectability.  Maybe you can tell us how 2020 election was stolen, despite there being no evidence of this (60+ dismissed court cases are quite the testament to that, plus lawyers who lied in those filings that have been sanctioned & disbarred).  If you think Biden is the real danger, you are so brainwashed there's just not much anyone can do with you.  This is second time you've tried one of your little MAGA drive-bys.  You are just telling us you are a damn fool.
Trump is damn well going to do everything he can to undermine Ukraine & do Putin's bidding.  All his previous words and actions show this and his current words show this.  But yes, you are totally right, he's taken out of context and all will be fine.  

Seems Rheinmetall have some curious ideas with regards to what would otherwise be older / obsolete chassis. I certainly think such systems are going to be an immediate priority for many nations due to the conflict as at least a stopgap while considering long term solutions / force reorganisations. 

Really does show you that the Ukrainians have seemingly kept on top of things when it comes to the efficiency of drones, at least to the point where this particular individuals mind is set on some truly baffling explanations. 

I think it's worth considering this in terms of the Galeotti analysis I posted above. Putin's two modes are to either prevaricate or over react...with what I would argue is a very strong lean towards the former. How he reacted to the challenge Prigozhin presented illustrates the dynamic well. He literally disappeared for a while when it began and then negotiated a bad deal for himself which he revised later with the assassination of Prigozhin and Wagner's core leadership. Putin did not "go nuclear" in any way during the entire episode. No purges, no mass arrests, no lashing out. He did the bare minimum to protect himself without unleashing forces that might get out of control.
The war in Ukraine so far shows a similar mix of aggression and timidity. Yes Russia invaded and yes it is struggling mightily to win but it is quite difficult to find anything Russia has done outside the lines that goes beyond nuisance value. Dragging a Norwegian data line or paying some clown to toss a firebomb at some vans in Prague are not exactly attempts to dramatically broaden the strategic scale of this war despite the fact that Western aid has killed Russian troops in windrows and is very effectively destroying the Russian military.
And why not? Because the elites under Putin as a group simply must have stability to safeguard the control they exert over power and money in Russian society and his primary job is to ensure it. Dropping a nuke, in any context, destroys that compact and as we have seen Putin now certainly knows that large sections of the security state will remain on the sidelines if he is challenged on that basis.
So while I would never entirely deny the possibility of Russia doing something idiotic, I think the invasion itself has used up Putin's allowance on that front unless and until dropping a nuke is seen as the only way in which the current internal order can be defended. That is only comprehensible in the case of a civil war...which goes a long way towards explaining American policy in this milieu.  
 
 

With all the S300s and S400s popping off over the past couple of months, it has been hard to keep track. Here is a handy graphic that lists them

Legend:
17.04 Dzhankoi
30.04 Dzhankoi
15.05 Belbek
22.05 Donetsk obl.
02.06 Belgorod
10.06 Yevpatoria
10.06 Chornomorsk
10.06 Dzhankoi
12.06 Sevastopol
12.06 Belbek
12.06 Belbek
 
It's Friday here so I take no responsibility.

Made me smile..

A really interesting read up on the S-500 system. 
 
 

I really did believe he was going to do something of the sort, just abruptly declare victory in his SMO and push for withdrawal / ceasefire after it was clear things were not exactly going ideally. It would of at least given him a reasonable off ramp he could get to stick domestically while preserving his military. Instead he doubled down and annexed four more Oblasts without even actually controlling any of them fully, including one of the four -capitals- of the oblast itself (which was soon joined by a second with Kherson liberated) 

Any fleeting notion to me that Putin was playing some strange form of 4D chess well and truly died by that point. He really is just riding this sorry train ride until it reaches the wrecked bridge at the end of the railroad. 

What I can’t figure is why these guys keep coming back. I mean c’mon, we are at 5.6M views (which has to be a record) but this is a niche little forum - and who under 40 even knows what a forum is?  We are on the outer rim of social media hanging on “A Little Wargame Shop That Could”.  So why anyone would want to keep coming back to try and pull whatever this was just doesn’t make sense.  This is the weirdest Russian IO ever, or maybe just a member of the Russian 5th column doing what he thinks the motherland wants him too.

next time can you just change his screen name to "troll"?  That might be fun for a few minutes at least.

Odesa and Transcarpatia oblast TCCs are most unceremonious. We now in the times when Soviet-legacy enlistment system already completely failed and showed own ineffectivity to supply army with replenishment, but new perspective system of recruitment is too weak and can work mostly in those brigades, who had exellent PR, showed own effectiveness and proper treatment to personnel. Not so much unit can boast of queuves for recruitment like 3rd assault brigade - and most of their recruites are young people 18-35 years, unlike 40+ age in most brigades.
Some other interseting information from Parliament Committee of Defense:
- In May 2024 in Ukraine was mobilized almost as many people as for six previous months. One serviceman, knowing inner "kitchen" of TCCs claimed in twitter in second half of 2023 mobilization was completely failed and gave to army less than 10 % of replenishment. And many of these 10 % are 45-59 y.o. man, with thikness, alcohoilism etc, because military medical committees almost never checked health and capabilities of mobilized.    
-  estimated required need of mobilization volumes are 100-110 thousands (but I think in 1,5-2 times more in real). Initially was planned to mobilize 450-500 thousands, especially if US hadn't given aid package
- since Janury 2024 were opened about 10000 criminal cases for unauthorized abandonment of military units and about 7000 criminal cases for desertion. For first case is developed a law, allowing to avoid a jail for first abandonment, if a serviceman turns back untill criminal case investifation will be completed. In many cases abandonments tied with serious psychological fatigue (and they didn't return from short time vacations), but also many typical idiotic Soviet military bureaucracy, when for example the serviceman is rehabilitating after wounding at the home, but hospiotal diodn't send a paper in time to his unit or HQ of this unit lost this paper and serviceman turned out in "abandonment". This is not the same as desertion, when serviceman abandoned by own will own military unit in combat zone.

I think the most important thing to recognise is that Ukraine has made great strides in combatting corruption in the last ten years, which is really quite commendable even if there is plenty more work to do. Its important to keep that in mind when anyone from the west looks at the country to be entirely honest, as the west has very extensive anti corruption practises and culture (compared to most of the world) The fact that Ukraine is actively doing so while in an existential war is honestly very impressive, while Russian corruption is only getting worse.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-corruption-transparency-index-improvement/32797746.html 

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/wartime-ukraine-ranks-among-worlds-top-performers-in-anti-corruption-index/#:~:text=Wartime Ukraine climbed twelve places,to 36 out of 100.

I think the most important thing to recognise is that Ukraine has made great strides in combatting corruption in the last ten years, which is really quite commendable even if there is plenty more work to do. Its important to keep that in mind when anyone from the west looks at the country to be entirely honest, as the west has very extensive anti corruption practises and culture (compared to most of the world) The fact that Ukraine is actively doing so while in an existential war is honestly very impressive, while Russian corruption is only getting worse.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-corruption-transparency-index-improvement/32797746.html 

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/wartime-ukraine-ranks-among-worlds-top-performers-in-anti-corruption-index/#:~:text=Wartime Ukraine climbed twelve places,to 36 out of 100.

Starting to make sense why Wagner has more or less zero presence in Ukraine anymore...