Sekai

Well, it's began. Soon Israel will hear "mopeds" in the air. I wish good hunting to Israeli AD and to wipe out Iranian militray industry for Israeli missile troops
Pro-Iranian group Katib Hezbollah in Southern Iraq claimed military operation against Israel. I suppose, South Lebanon Hezbollah will do the same later. It's a good opportunity to bomb into stone age one country of the "Evil Axis". But balls are needed

But here and good news. After despearted interview of UKR Foreign Affairs minister about "Patriots", something moved in Eurpore
 

$666 per kg to LEO (assuming $100M launch cost, 150T payload) is around a quarter of Falcon 9’s cost. So right now, even if you expend the rocket, it’s a massive advance.

For everybody’s fun and entertainment, the third launch of SpaceX’s Starship just made it to orbit and will re-enter in a half hour or so. < $100kg to LEO, here we come.
Obviously being able rapidly re-use a rocket that can put 150 tons into LEO will make it easy to rebuild satellite constellations in a war, but the logistics possibilities are really cool.

For those interested in listening in on two world leaders talk about Ukraine before the war. More to follow....
 
 

...you have heard of a small event called "Iraq War" during which Germany, France etc. did not participate?
Your input for this thread is truly invaluable, but I am afraid when it comes to this sub-conversation on international law, there must have been some misunderstanding between what you read how it works and how it actually works. Because I simply don't recognize what you say in the treaties nor in how it was applied in the past.

They are not charging forward. They crawl. This is their advance in 4 month and 16 thousand dead.

Their wild charge after capturing Avdiivka is 3.5 km. They aren't charging anywhere. They crawl and push. It is not strategically relevant. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/26/europe/sweden-nato-accession-hungary-intl/index.html
Sweden is finally in NATO 

Why "strangely" silent? I alone twice descibed the situation in more detail, page 3050 if you missed it and several pages before. I just came back from mountains mate and it's monday; we have RL too. And now 8-page backlog.
They are for pay-offs of sort but (as they claim) together with unions from several other states are ruined by unfair competition by Ukrainian transport companies. They demand bringing back the previous quotas on transport, moratory on which was extended lately by EU Comission and stop to corruption practices along the border, like (they claim) unfair e-registration system on other side and using aid/military channels to transport private business from and to UA.
A complicated business matter, most people here strongly condemn form of protest (curiously, far-right ONR send demand to stop it) but we are in a power limbo for a week, don't have functional government that would take decisions of such weight, up to circa 11th December, when new should be sworn in. Today is some meeting in Brussels in that matter so perhaps some decisions to alleviate situation will be made. But yeah, I hope new gevernment will soon scrutinize connections of several members of far right Confederacy more closely now. Postulates are partly fair and movement seems grassroot and multi-national, but form and timing for interregnum period here is perfect from Moscow  point of view.
 
Quite interesting article regarding Russian FPV drone production capacities, from one opposition outlet:
https://www-agents-media.translate.goog/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true

Wow, this thread has really derailed lately into a generalised college dorm bull session on world affairs. A lot of opinionating and emoting by the same 15 regulars. Only @Harmon Rabb is trying to post anything remotely factual any more.
...Actually, the Twittersphere in general seems much the same. A lot of scolding and 'on message' broken record slogans, and What Now Must We Do emoting. Fragments of anecdata only,  and analysis (body counts, wreck counts) seem stale and repetitive. Just marching in place, yet things are changing.
 
1. What the hell *is* happening in Poland? I'd love to hear from our Polish comrades who seem strangely silent of late: @Maciej Zwolinski, @Beleg85?
What's the beef with the truckers? Are they just looking for a payoff, or do they actually want to hobble Ukraine's war effort?  Why?
 
2.
@Haiduk, how are things in Kyiv?  Are Zeleban's views on fatigue and disillusionment on point? (I for one don't doubt his sincerity or his goodwill, nor do I believe he's parroting Russian troll farms)
@kraze what are people saying in your corner of the Austro-Hungarian empire?
Angry denunciations of betrayals and foot-dragging by the West aside -- real or imagined -- what are you guys seeing or hearing about going downhill there?
I'm going to suspend posting for a bit myself, since I have far more questions than answers on the macro situation, and no one here seems much interested in the battlefield itself these days.

UKR troops activated on Hola Prystan' direction (SW from Kherson) - they set control over Bilohrudove village on Bilohrudnyi island. Likley this happened sevaral days or even week ago, and changes was spotted due to footage of Russian drones. No official information from UKR General Staff. About week ago they strictly rejected to comment any info about Dnipro-crossing operaton.

Russian milbloggers complain UKR troops on bridgeheads, especially in Krynky area have just "unlimited number" of FPV drones, which inflicted heavy losses for armor and logistic vehicles. Also they say UKR trops use multiple recon Mavics, so almost each squad can call artillery fire from right bank in short time.  UKR troops defended by probably new EW assets which Russian bloggers called "EW cupola" - by their words Russian have severe problems with own drones and communications, Russian troops suffered a lack of own EW assets, so UKR drones fly impudent and "khokhols became so insolent that use extreme low altitude helicopter strikes at our positions with S-8 rockets and even deploy SHORAD AD assets in 1-2 km from the river on right bank, shooting down most of our drones, which try to spot artillery". 
Our units also have huge support of "Magyar Birds" unit, which likely already became independent UCAV unit maybe regiment of higer subordination. Russians say "some very known personage (Magyar) set in Kherson on residental building powerful transmitter, which allows his unit reach too far and breakthrough our week EW defense". During last 10 days Russians launched two Kh-31P anti-radar missiles on Kherson, very likely against Madyar's radio equipment.
 
 

Sweet, Denmark is letting know Putin we are not going to abandon Ukraine. I hope other NATO countries will demonstrate similar long term commitments.
 
 



 

Russian navy just can't catch a break. This year has been a disaster for their Black Sea fleet.

Russian navy just can't catch a break. This year has been a disaster for their Black Sea fleet.

Video of "Askold" is being hit with three missiles
 
 

Damn you Hapless.  He got first post on page 3000.

Just because you decline to fight the enemy in a unfavourable place, does not mean you get to fight him in a favourable place.
The whole draw to Bakhmut was that Putin needed that headline beyond all reason. It was the place that crippled the Russian army's offensive operations elsewhere. Let Putin have Bakhmut, and the headlines he craved, and his commanders might just have been able to pick their next spot to attack. And it wouldn't have been the easily defended hills west of Bakhmut, I can all but guarantee you that.
And there's the political angle. The long fight over Bakhmut was wildly damaging to Putin's regime internationally and within Russia. There was a pseudo-coup attempt! That's a pretty good result for Ukraine fighting for Bakhmut.
 
To me, fighting in Bakhmut is a no brainer.

Be that as it may, I can say that times have changed. compared to last year. I had a development project. But because of the war, I decided that civilian projects would not benefit my country and decided to join the Ukrainian armed forces. Moreover, recently chronic diseases are not considered an obstacle to recruitment

Wagner lost 10's of thousands in the Bakhmut offensive, if they are determined to do the same here - Ukraine should welcome them with open arms.

Wagner lost 10's of thousands in the Bakhmut offensive, if they are determined to do the same here - Ukraine should welcome them with open arms.

Wagner lost 10's of thousands in the Bakhmut offensive, if they are determined to do the same here - Ukraine should welcome them with open arms.

Even if 1 in a 100 shells blew up in their faces I still think the Russian high command would deem that an acceptable loss ratio.   Human lives are as cheap as a shot of vodka to them.

About yesterday assault of Avdiivka. 
There are rumors Putin yesterday visited HQ of SMO in Rostov and generals decided to make him a "gift" with massive assault of Avdiivka, which had to break UKR defense, but...
UKR servicemen and TGs claims this was heaviest assault of the city, which by number of involved vehciles even spat out the assault of Oct 10. Then Russians used many infantry, supported with heavy aviation and artilelry trikes and armor. In this time they attacked very strong with mass of armor in three directions on northern flank. Their primary objective was the slag heap again. 
Russian armored columns had from 5 to 30 vehicles! 
Also a difference with previous assault - in this time Russians reportedly attacked most;y with regular units with support of DPR, when at Oct 10 main forces of attacks were Shtorm Z and DPR units with some suport of Russian regulars
Here is known episode with BTR column from other point of view  - in elimination of this attack participated at least elements of four units - 1st tank brigade, 3rd SOF regiment, 116th TD brigade and some artilelry unit.
I suppose BTRs are belonged to 15th motor-rifle "peacemaking" brigade of 2nd CAA, Central millitary district, which was moved here from Svatove direction together with 21st motor-rifle brigade. And both were deployed on northern flank. 15th one of few motor-rifle brigades, armed with BTRs, not BMPs 
For yestrday GS isuued these crazy numbers - of course this is exaggregation, but level of Russian losses for Oct 19 was really colossal
By the news of last hours, Russians continue desperate attacks not counting with losses. Reportedly they had some success near slag heap and it in grey zone now. Putin needs a victory to 4th of November - Day of National unity. 

Let’s not make too long leaps here. (And I know you are just summarizing)  Russia may have reserves.  Or it may well have taken risks along line units as well.  Avdiivka was a tactical offensive, that failed - not D Day.  Russia is learning, there is no arguing that.  The question is: are they learning at a competitive rate compared to the UA?
UA takes ground continuously for months = “well ya but it isn’t fast enough”
RA does a post mortem twitch = “Holy Crap, it is the end of days!”