Billy Ringo

If this is solely about Russian elites, my perception is that this is a very valid statement. If it's about right leaning elites in North America and many parts of Europe, I think it's painting with a VERY broad brush as my personal experience indicates otherwise.  And much of that work is done quietly without the need to seek attention.  But---I'd rather not take this discussion further into unrelated topics so I will not reply further.
Maybe it's just me, but second guessing or questioning Poland's contribution to Ukraine over the past 12 months would put one on the deep side of a losing argument. But that's just me.
All the talk about the delay in getting weapons and training to Ukraine, shortages of ammunition and questioning whether Ukraine can hold the Russians off until the cavalry arrives late Spring or early Summer, makes me wonder whether the arms and ammunition are already in-country and ready to flatten a Russian advance.  It makes no sense to hear so much discussion about what Ukraine doesn't have, their weaknesses.  
Would Russia be able to accurately detect a large buildup of Ukrainian forces?  Tanks, new airplanes, additional long-range missiles, etc.   Is it possible that Ukraine is simply waiting for Russia to expose themselves by going on the offensive, then unleash holy Hell only on the Russians?  Is it possible to "hide" or conceal a significant amount of new military hardware?

If this is solely about Russian elites, my perception is that this is a very valid statement. If it's about right leaning elites in North America and many parts of Europe, I think it's painting with a VERY broad brush as my personal experience indicates otherwise.  And much of that work is done quietly without the need to seek attention.  But---I'd rather not take this discussion further into unrelated topics so I will not reply further.
Maybe it's just me, but second guessing or questioning Poland's contribution to Ukraine over the past 12 months would put one on the deep side of a losing argument. But that's just me.
All the talk about the delay in getting weapons and training to Ukraine, shortages of ammunition and questioning whether Ukraine can hold the Russians off until the cavalry arrives late Spring or early Summer, makes me wonder whether the arms and ammunition are already in-country and ready to flatten a Russian advance.  It makes no sense to hear so much discussion about what Ukraine doesn't have, their weaknesses.  
Would Russia be able to accurately detect a large buildup of Ukrainian forces?  Tanks, new airplanes, additional long-range missiles, etc.   Is it possible that Ukraine is simply waiting for Russia to expose themselves by going on the offensive, then unleash holy Hell only on the Russians?  Is it possible to "hide" or conceal a significant amount of new military hardware?

If it is going to take another half a million, or a million, Russian casualties for the Russians to get the point, we might as well give the Ukrainians the means to get there as quickly as reasonably possible. Yes The_Capt, I know we shouldn't give them nukes...

Talk about a non sequitor.  I meant that in no country on the planet is the public/very high profile reveal of strategic ISR assets a good thing - all us talking about it because it is all over the news is evidence that this is an intelligence failure, pure and simple. Name me one example in the modern era where this kind of exposure of strategic intelligence gathering was a “good thing”.  Hell the US took a lot of risks exposing the intel it had on Russia in this war. It was a good risk but they gave a lot away doing it.
To call this anything else is to start digging a mythological dread trap.  That is a major analytical failing - projecting out fears onto an opponent and building a mythological framework around that, as opposed to what is the most likely (and simplest) explanation.   
We see it right here - the Chinese have been investing in balloon technology for years, they must know what they are doing.  They just had four platforms detected (one of them by freaking amateur astronomers) and shot down. Well that can’t be what it looks like, they must be up to something…hmm, let’s invent all sorts of weird and wonderful theories that create more fear and uncertainty, and then build more theories on those.
This is not good analysis of the situation.  But it is all sorts of flexible thinking. We also saw this in this war.  
“Russia must have a magic rabbit behind its back because we all know they are really dangerous and we can’t possible understand their strategic mindset.”
”Well no, they just really pooped the bed on their strategy.  There is no deeper plot here, this is straight up desperate attritional warfare leading nowhere (again).”
“That is projecting our thinking rigidly and failing to consider the mystical Russian strategy.”  
“Uh no, it is just really bad planning and execution, and roughly 300k casualties agree with me.  Look they are doing it again.”
Most times it is just a freakin duck.
Oh and for the record if I did have classified knowledge of the Chinese calculus on this whole thing I sure as hell would not be sharing it with strangers on a public Internet forum.
We get some more data, sure we can build out on that but it should come with indicators.  If the Chinese start fielding equipment that can exceed our response times - because we gave it all away scrambling to shoot down balloons (honestly not sure how that would work given physics) or if Russia can actually pull off a break out battle and gain an operational objective. Then we re-assess and quickly reorientate to a new situation.  
That is how professionals do it.  Can we get caught off guard? Sure, but most of those are human error or outright political filtering, not some clever ploy by an opponent. Making masterminds out of idiots is just as bad, maybe worse, than underestimating an opponents capabilities.
 

Fun with mines. Sorry if it's a repost, but definitely worth seeing:
 

"Capital" (with an "A") comes from the Latin caput, for "head," and it refers to the city that is the center of government. "Capitol" (with an "O") also has a Latin origin, confusingly—it refers to the Capitoline Hill in Rome and to the Capitolium, a particular building on top of that hill.
Capital = a city / Capitol = a building
The U.S. Capitol Police work for Congress, not for the Executive Branch, and they normally exercise jurisdiction over the Capitol Building, the surrounding office complexes, and some of the adjoining streets and sidewalks.
The U.S. Secret Service protects the persons of the president, vice president, and their families; as well as some other senior officials, visiting dignitaries, and a dizzying array of former White House residents. The agency also operates a large, roughly 1,300-officer Uniformed Division, which guards the White House, Vice Presidential Residence, and foreign embassies and consulates all over D.C. I live in the District, and I note that USSS uniformed officers are some of the only police who make traffic stops, and that they respond enthusiastically to calls for service near their posts. A couple weeks ago, a dozen Secret Service cars descended on the supermarket near me after a customer got in a fight with the manager.
The White House's communications, transportation, mess, and medical services are run by military personnel under the White House Military Office.
The U.S. Army's 3rd Infantry ("The Old Guard") has two battalions in the D.C. area, mostly tasked for ceremonial roles, but trained as light infantry and for DSCA. Similarly, there's about a battalion at the Marine Barracks. Employing any of these federal forces within the U.S. is legally complicated under posse comitatus, so commanders usually call out National Guard units for civil disturbances or public event support. If I remember correctly, most of the initial force of Guardsmen on January 6th came from the D.C. National Guard—they know the area, are based nearby, and are weighted toward MPs.
Most of the deployable units in the area report to Joint Headquarters National Capital Region, a part of U.S. Northern Command, at least for non-routine operations. 

Those kind of measurements are *really* hard to do from a balloon with any fidelity because there are a lot of outside forces acting on the balloon and it's hard to maintain an inertial environment somewhere inside.  Local gravity measurements are tricky to do in a stable lab subbasement with good isolation.  

With reference to Russian industrial capacity....
In my experience, it takes 6-12 months before major supply chain disruptions really start affecting the economy.  My customers, (I work with large industrial supply, repair parts, etc. wholesalers) were able to leverage pipeline inventory, source inventory from one domestic location or another, cannibalize parts from assembly and/or production sources for about 6-12 months depending on the industry during Covid and the recent supply chain disruptions. Then it got ugly.
Russia may be getting to the end of that window before industrial production really starts taking hits.
That's basically a long winded way of saying, just because some Russian manufacturing sectors have been running for the past 12 months doesn't mean they will keep running at the same capacity.  Or at all.  And when one sector fails, every other sector dependent upon those products suffer as well.
 

With reference to Russian industrial capacity....
In my experience, it takes 6-12 months before major supply chain disruptions really start affecting the economy.  My customers, (I work with large industrial supply, repair parts, etc. wholesalers) were able to leverage pipeline inventory, source inventory from one domestic location or another, cannibalize parts from assembly and/or production sources for about 6-12 months depending on the industry during Covid and the recent supply chain disruptions. Then it got ugly.
Russia may be getting to the end of that window before industrial production really starts taking hits.
That's basically a long winded way of saying, just because some Russian manufacturing sectors have been running for the past 12 months doesn't mean they will keep running at the same capacity.  Or at all.  And when one sector fails, every other sector dependent upon those products suffer as well.
 

Agree with both of you and so it may take a little longer than 6-12 months, but it will eventually catch up with them.  And when it does is when we'll see a much larger impact from sanctions.

With reference to Russian industrial capacity....
In my experience, it takes 6-12 months before major supply chain disruptions really start affecting the economy.  My customers, (I work with large industrial supply, repair parts, etc. wholesalers) were able to leverage pipeline inventory, source inventory from one domestic location or another, cannibalize parts from assembly and/or production sources for about 6-12 months depending on the industry during Covid and the recent supply chain disruptions. Then it got ugly.
Russia may be getting to the end of that window before industrial production really starts taking hits.
That's basically a long winded way of saying, just because some Russian manufacturing sectors have been running for the past 12 months doesn't mean they will keep running at the same capacity.  Or at all.  And when one sector fails, every other sector dependent upon those products suffer as well.
 

With reference to Russian industrial capacity....
In my experience, it takes 6-12 months before major supply chain disruptions really start affecting the economy.  My customers, (I work with large industrial supply, repair parts, etc. wholesalers) were able to leverage pipeline inventory, source inventory from one domestic location or another, cannibalize parts from assembly and/or production sources for about 6-12 months depending on the industry during Covid and the recent supply chain disruptions. Then it got ugly.
Russia may be getting to the end of that window before industrial production really starts taking hits.
That's basically a long winded way of saying, just because some Russian manufacturing sectors have been running for the past 12 months doesn't mean they will keep running at the same capacity.  Or at all.  And when one sector fails, every other sector dependent upon those products suffer as well.
 

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/873/260/a5b.png

I disagree😉

So Russias economy is airtight and bulletproof, and Putin as glorious leader/dictator for life can demand his people die in the millions for him?
I mean that is where this line of thinking is carrying.  We as weak western democracies cannot possibly impose enough pressure, nor will our willpower survive as long as a dictatorship because our system is inherently weaker.
I am sorry but I am not buying any of these points and nor does history bear them out.  Sure Russia has put in fallbacks and economic bastions, but how long can they last?  Every dictator you mention had a very different economic system to sustain their society.  Russia will need to re-wire theirs (already have) in order to make this work in the long term.  We have posted a plethora of charts and graphs on how the Russian economy has taken sever hits and has had to prop up its currency and system in many dangerous ways.  Now the IMF makes a two year prediction in the middle of a shooting war and we leap to “negotiate!”…?
Economic systems take time to shift - in 2014 it wasn’t like the sanctions were felt over a weekend.  In fact it took 2 years to see full effects on GDP, maxed out in 2016.
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp
And then recovered but never back to 2014 levels.
Yes, let’s look at the long game for a minute.  If Russia gets away with this stunt and we blink, then we are back to anarchy of states.  China, Russia or whoever is aligned with them are going to be able to fall back on Rule of the Gun.  If we didn’t stick it out in Ukraine then why should we in Taiwan?
We built the system.  If we want to keep it, we have to be willing to fight for it.  Russia is not a bunch of extremist yahoos, it is a global power that went “ya, whacha gonna do about it?”  So we either push it back in line or the whole drug deal starts to unravel. This is not about national identity, it is about a global order (warts and all) that put us all on top.  We defend it or lose it.
This war is a test of western will and resolve as much as it is for Ukraine or Russia.  Dictatorships are notoriously fragile, normally collapsing with the death of the dictator.  A few have bucked the trend - North Korea, but that freaky state is a whole thing on its own.  Russia is a modern and developed nation, with a capitalistic economy.  It does not get to illegally invade another nation and get away with it.  And if we tap out, we’ll what happens next is all on us.
Can they be beat?  They already have been.  Someone (other than Macgregor) paint me a scenario where Russian strategic aims are accomplished.  We can construct a new Iron Curtain if we have to, hell we split Germany in half and pulled its western side into NATO.  Europe is weaning off Russian energy, that is going to have effects that last a generation.  Russia has not regained operational offensive initiative, they are doing the same tactical pecking they have been doing for months.  And even if they did retake the initiative, how long can they hold onto it?

No, our main threat is western attention spans.  We are used to everything being fast, especially our “real” wars - the low level stuff we can always change the channel on.  So now that we are in a real test of resolve we either buckle down and finish this thing, or not.

Well I can only hope they are not smoking the same stuff as Russia.  I would not have pegged Russia as dumb enough to engage in a land war in Europe when they had been so successful on the subversive front…yet here we are.  

New YT video, poor quality, of Springsteen & band playing somewhere.  The only reason I am sharing is because guitarist Steven Van Zandt has a very pro UKR paint job on his stratocaster.  Well played, Mr Van Zandt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EygSxgytxm4
 
 

You just described Cheesecake Factory.

I didn't think Putin was stupid either. But here we are...

I didn't think Putin was stupid either. But here we are...

I didn't think Putin was stupid either. But here we are...

Ok, so I guess it is time for another talk on this.  The main reason there has not been a lot of discussion on the progress of the war itself is because not a lot is happening - or wait, is it?  And being human means we simply cannot accept reality for what it is, we need to start reading meaning and implications at every shadow in the dark.
Nothing is happening because the UA has run out of steam.
Nothing is happening because the RA has rebuilt itself into a lurking monster that can freeze this conflict in place.
Nothing is happening because it is all a [insert boogie-man of you choice] - Belarusian Front re-opening is popular.
Or here is a crazy idea, maybe nothing is really happening because it is the middle of a wet muddy winter.  Or wait a minute, maybe something is happening - https://www.forbes.com/sites/katyasoldak/2023/01/23/monday-january-23-russias-war-on-ukraine-daily-news-and-information-from-ukraine/?sh=72a88a92ba69  but because of unrealistic expectations we think nothing is happening.  
In fact we have become so fixated on questionable criteria of success that the fact that the RA is bleeding out appears to be getting lost in the noise.  https://www.newsweek.com/nearly-5500-russians-killed-last-week-war-defense-ministry-1777316 (that is 1/3 of what they lost in Afghanistan in ten years).
Oh but we all know the mighty Russian bear can generate millions of troops - which it has not - and come crawling out of the snow to retake all of Ukraine and usher in a new era of Russian dominance. 
And then pundits - seriously who are these guys? Say things like "Ukraine can only make progress with a deliberate offensive."  Well no sh#t Sherlock, it is what they have been doing since last Sep.  In fact the only successful defence-only operation was arguably in Phase I when the RA over-reached and collapsed out of the North.  Every major UA success to date has been a period of heavy RA attrition/manipulation followed by deliberate offensive pressure - fast in Kharkiv, slow in Kherson - outcomes the same.
"Oh dear, oh dear, Russia is going to win the war."  Well Piglet, no Russia has already lost this one - we are only negotiating what that looks like here. (The_Capt's all war is negotiation has clearly fallen on deaf ears.) 
"But, but, Russia wins unless we take back every square inch of Ukraine in the next week."  Well, ok by that metric then I guess we have lost this one but that is a terrible metric.  "Russia wins if Ukrainians keep dying" - another bad metric because last I checked this is a war and people are going to die from it for decades - see UXOs and landmines.  "Russia wins if Russia is not a smoking collapsed ruin with Putin hanging upside down from a telephone pole" - ok, seriously?
The worst case right now is that the front does not move an inch.  The conflict is frozen in place, locked in Korean style.  The specter of Russia somehow turning those buckets of Chinese chips into a C4ISR enterprise that can achieve: information superiority; wage a SEAD campaign for the ages and somehow regain air superiority - and invent a CAS/AirLand doctrine while they are at it; then establish the operational pre-conditions they needed on 24 Feb - make Ukraine go dark - literally and information-wise, cripple transportation infra-structure, and paralyze political/military strategic decision making - is f*cking laughable.   I mean if the RA still has those rabbits in its hat I will be absolutely shocked and of course ask the obvious question - "what the hell were they waiting for to pull them out?"
So conflict frozen.  So What?  Russia has already failed on both its made up and real strategic objectives for this war.  The real ones are stuff like:
- Take full control of Ukraine, install puppet government and run the nation like Belarus.
- Shatter the western world through a display of Russian Imperial might and re-assert Russian hegemony.
- Render NATO irrelevant and neutered.  With no doubt a longer term campaign to push them out of the Baltics through subversive means.
- Simply wait for a few months before weak-kneed European resolve collapses and they all start to buy Russian gas again - renormalization, Russian supremacy in its neighborhood, western "rules-based-order" a burning wreck, and sit back and let the autocrat club rule the roost.
Ya so not only did none of that happen, in many instances the exact opposite happened.  So for all you students of history I think I am on pretty safe ground when I declare that this is what losing looks like.  If on the weigh scales of history Russia gets "blasted and shattered Donbas, complete with reconstruction bill", and "Cut off and highly vulnerable Crimea", and "Strategic land bridge to nowhere", I think we can bloody well live with it.  If we cannot and that is what breaks us, then we never deserved to be in charge in the first place.
Russia just burned down its own storefront.  It has isolated itself from it best customers.  Its reputation on the global stage is in shambles, re-normalization is a very far off dream.  It has been militarily crushed - I mean this is 1991 where Saddam drove the coalition into the sea type of thing - by all old metrics of warfare Ukraine should be in an occupied insurgency right now, the reality we are in should not have happened. Russian hard power credibility is a joke.  And it is extremely vulnerable to really weak negotiating conditions. 
Further NATO has not been this unified since the Cold War.  Western defence spending has been re-energized for a decade at least - I mean seriously Vlad, read the f#cking room, we were half-way to debilitating defence cuts in the post-pandemic economy but then you made your "genius" chess move.  Europe is actually agreeing with itself.   The US has finally found something they can agree on, mostly.  And most importantly, I think the West finally woke up from its "New World Order" hangover and realized that one has to actually keep fighting to stay on top.
And finally here is the thing....this entire affair is not over by a long shot.  We have not seen anything that suggests the UA has run out of gas.  We are pushing more and more offensive equipment at the UA, which suggests that they are lining up for another operational offensive.  The RA is still flopping around with leg-humping in the Donbas.  Spending thousands of lives for inches, just like they did last summer.  So before we declare this thing "over" why don't we just buckle in and show something that most people do not get in the least about warfare...steady patience.  Games and movies are terrible at teaching this because they are entertainment.  War is more often a slow and steady grinding business, until it is not.   

So that is simply not true.
Now that part is true.
No, doesn’t really track.  Country went from zero to sixty in the 8 years after it lost a large chunk of Donbas and Crimea.  In fact where the lines on the map are finally drawn really are not critically linked to either security or economic recovery at this point in the war.
Seriously, you are painting this entire thing into a pretty bleak (and maximalist) corner with this line of thinking.  I would have hoped nearly 2000 pages of in depth discussion and counter-points would have done something but apparently we are still at “it is all about the map!”
So what are we going to do if Ukraine retakes all it wonderful land - filled with people who actively supported Russia by the way - and magically Russia does not cease to exist, nor does it recognize an end to the conflict?  A new more nationalist Russia with some other nut job in charge - they have more in the back- who refuses to accept the lot of the “poor downtrodden true-Russians in occupied Crimea and Donbas”?  Based on your absolutist criteria we basically have to win WW3 in order to fully secure Ukraine…pointe finale!
And here is why what you are pitching is such a bad idea.  If we ain’t absolutely winning…we are losing!  Like war is some sort of digital experience like being pregnant.  Based on your underlying strategic requirements as outlined by this narrative, the only way Ukraine and the West can win is through the complete destruction of Russia.  This is not only a terrible idea, it is a dangerous oversimplification of the situation.
I am glad to see we are still on schedule for our monthly “crisis of faith” because the war is not meeting these highly unrealistic goals and timelines.  Based on these metrics we may just have to accept the loss then, I think over on the MacGregor channel they are already talking about pushing Ukraine into negotiations.
Why don’t we just stick with the “a secure western facing free and sovereign Ukraine with a functioning democracy while well supported in economic recovery”.  And work backwards from that?  A lot of scenarios between here and there, and I am pretty sure the grown ups are working through them all.  
Strategy is not a choice between Good and Bad, it is a choice between Bad and Worse.  We are living Bad right now.  We are all looking for something other than Worse.

I think there is only one war criminal and that is the guy who starts it. Pointing fingers just to make war acceptable somehow is losing one's focus.

Ref corruption in Ukraine. Is this thread reasonably accurate, for our Ukrainian friends? 
Im very curious about its effects on the War effort.  We're already fairly informed on Russian corruption and its effects on the AFRF,  as much as open source lets us, but what of its toll on Ukraines fight? 
I've read reports of the West's pleasant surprise at just how controlled and inspectable the weapons tracking system is, and also we've heard of SBU Russian infiltration, corruption and treason. 
I'm curious from a day to day civilian experience and also effects on both the operational logistics and battlefield impact (eg officer quality). 
If uncontrolled there are serious long term implications to both final victory and winning the Peace...