Calamine Waffles

Neptun has a range of only 280 km. The straight line distance from the nearest point in the frontline is already 218 km, and that route is over land.

Usually the ammunition storage at airfields is hardened, though obviously I cannot exclude Russian stupidity in handling ammunition. As for Sapsan, well, parts of it already exist (TEL/rocket engine), so it doesn't seem impossible they may have completed it since the last report in 2021 (1.5 years), but we will see. After all, Neptun was not yet in service when the war began either.

That would be viable for the targets near the coast, but I don't know if they are accurate enough to hit specific targets on an airfield. This person has first-hand knowledge and training on the similar Harpoon, and this is his opinion Neptune does have a bigger warhead, though. As for Sapsan, Defense Express reported in 2021 that the Ukrainian MoD restarted the Sapsan project and gave it funding, so I don't know what its status is. https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_defense_ministry_to_finance_creation_of_sapsan_missile_system-1808.html

AFAIK it only has INS with terminal radar homing, but if it has TERCOM like Tomahawk that would be surprising to me.

Personally, I think it is unlikely Neptun was used for these strikes: they are too valuable as a deterrent against the Black Sea Fleet and they do not have TERCOM for land-attack (similarly, Harpoon only has very limited land attack capability) If it was a Ukrainian missile system, I'd probably conjecture it was Sapsan, which was reported to be 80% complete in February 2021: https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/weapon_and_tech/otrk_sapsan_dlja_zsu_u_minoboroni_rozkrili_shljah_priskorennja_prijnjattja_na_ozbrojennja-2847.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Shrike is a lot more primitive than HARM, but HARM is still relatively independent of the carrier's sensors when operating in the PB mode compared to something like the Sidewinder or the AMRAAM.

HARM is inertially guided with terminal radar-seeking. It doesn't need a lock to be fired. http://www.ausairpower.net/API-AGM-88-HARM.html Based on the wreckage, it is also the AGM-88D, which has GPS guidance supplementing the inertial guidance. This allows it to accurately hit radar emitters even after they have been turned off.

Remarkably honest for a Russian analysis: https://wartranslated.com/russian-defence-research-expert-on-afu-performance-the-effect-of-western-weapon-supplies/

The range for ground-launched Standard ARM was described as "several dozen km", which has a 90 km range when air-launched. HARM has an air-launched range > 111 km.

Ground launching air-launched ARMs is not unprecedented:

AGM-88 HARM has entered the chat: https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/smart/agm-88.htm

This was fairly interesting: https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/army_and_war/skilki_chasu_potribno_na_vidnovlennja_trofejnoji_tehniki_i_jak_v_poljah_znajti_defitsitni_zapchastini-8442.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

The most interesting part was he said he was using a T-72B. This suggest he was in one of the reserve tank units. On a different note, I think Nielsen has the right assessment on how Russian gas tomfoolery will affect the war: it relies on way too many questionable assumptions, like Europeans being spoiled weak people unable accept any sort of privation.

This is the tank commander who was filmed earlier in the war ambushing that Russian convoy near Nova Basan

It's been claimed that the more modern Nona can fire Western 120 mm mortar ammunition, but obviously I've never tried it so I don't know for sure.

Would be nice if Europe would just send 120 mm mortars en masse. I believe French 120 mm mortar ammunition can be fired from the Soviet/Russian types?

Actually quite a significant donation from Azerbaijan, since they only had 15 MiG-29s (I guess now 12)

Lack of ammo/assets.

I would expect them to still be able to replace their losses with BMP-2s, although BMP-3 has probably become rarer now. They haven't actually built any new BMP-2s since 2005/6.

Up until the very end of the Soviet Union, the BMP-2 never actually replaced the BMP-1 on a one-for-one basis. It only ever supplemented it.

Oh wow, Pavel Felgenhauer is still around?

Serbians want to FAFO it seems. For their sake they better hope they've gotten better at hiding their weapons than 25 years ago.

Every party has a pooper, that's why we invited you, party pooper

There is a good paper that just came out by B. A. Friedman about war and non-linear dynamics: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol75/iss2/5/

Calling for Ukraine to get its own Iskander equivalent https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/news/jakbi_zsu_mali_otrk_grim_2_z_tisjacheju_raket_zhodnih_bojovih_dij_ne_bulo_b_rechnik_komanduvannja_ps_zsu-8303.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp