Calamine Waffles

Would the Russians put a Msta-B so close that a tank could engage it even with indirect fire? Have the Ukrainians also modified the tank FCS for indirect fire?

Msta-B claimed to be hit by a tank unit, but I think it's probably from the attached artillery, rather than by a tank. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=443804901139390

Quite a good talk held by RUSI on the Galician campaign of 1914 and parallels to today https://rusi.org/events/open-to-all/russias-war-eastern-front-1914-precedents-current-ukraine-conflict

I wonder if in the future there will be dedicated ECM/anti-drone tanks

"Mit dem Angriff Steiners wird das alles in Ordnung kommen." "Mein Fuehrer..."

I strongly suspect the future game plan for the US is going to be more like what they do in Ukraine: training, funding, weapons, but no direct intervention except in the most extreme scenarios.

Oh that will be most helpful! Yes, I'd appreciate any help you can give translating them (I don't understand spoken Ukrainian/Russian, only a little bit, mostly rely on translation of text)

Which one? This interview? I'd appreciate any others you can send me.

This is something that comes up a lot in Soviet/Russian weapons design and it basically boils down to the fact that their systems are designed to meet challenging specifications on a budget/technology base that's much smaller than the US has, so what ends up happening is that they will prioritise "hard" factors that can be easily quantified (like number of missiles etc.) and compromise on the "soft" factors (like how compartmentalized your design is and its ability to survive damage). A good example of this is Soviet jet engines. Soviet engine technology and metallurgy was backward compared to the West, but they still needed to put out comparable amounts of power to Western engines in order to maintain performance (basic physics) in a useful airframe, so they compromised by having engines with very short lifespans/TBOs compared to Western counterparts. I'm actually writing a paper on this comparing the Russian T-72B3 obr. 2016 and Ukrainian T-64BV zr. 2017 showing how Ukraine's more Westernised approach to modernising its tank fleet has different priorities to that of the Russians.

Probably one of the best overviews of the sinking of the Moskva and the factors that probably played a role: Basically, the ship was unfit for combat.

With regards to active radar-homing AAMs, there actually is one that could be integrated into the MiG-29 and Su-27, and it is the I-Derby ER. https://caucasuswatch.de/news/4341.html It has a range > 100 km and is known to be integrated on Azerbaijan's MiG-29s (some of which are now in Ukraine), and it is also advertised as being compatible with the Su-30MKI (India is acquiring it). However, I-Derby is an Israeli weapon, and thus far Israel has been reluctant to send weapons to Ukraine, so I am doubtful of that occurring in the near future.

Sidewinder I could see (it's just a heat-seeker), but AMRAAM is more difficult, as it will need to interface with the aircraft systems to provide targeting information and location for the inertial guidance phase before the missile's own active radar guidance takes over, even if you choose not to use the mid-course update capability. There is a free guidance mode, but that's basically the equivalent of hip-firing and hoping the missile hits the right thing.

Actually I think it would be hilarious if the US gave them a ton of MALD-Js and use the A-10 purely as a MALD platform to troll the Russians. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/a-10-warthogs-tusks-are-being-sharpened-for-a-high-end-fight

Tom Theiner tends to be a bit overconfident with his analyses, though he has good knowledge. However, it does look like they bothered to cover up the rear of the launcher.

It makes sense to integrate HARM with the MiG-29, since that is the primary fighter-bomber asset of the PSU with the kinematics most suitable for HARM usage (Su-27s are more valuable as fighters and Su-24s are too few and a bit too vulnerable). Justin Bronk suspects they might also be using it against EW assets, but no hard evidence of that yet.

The other thing of course is that the top attack mode is not some 100% guaranteed instant kill even against T-72s etc. You've got things like the big gun breech that can potentially absorb a hit and prevent a K-kill in the top attack profile.

Bronk is usually pretty good but I have some issues with his claim that the Russians have a 1.6 million man mobilization pool under the current plans.

That may be a problem because the manufacturer of BMPs, Kurganmashzavod, has not exactly been managed well for the past few decades

There's some speculation they might attempt an offensive towards Zaporizhzhia to try and force Ukraine to divert forces away from Kherson and regain momentum.

Also re: US intelligence, the fundamental fact is that not all US allies are equal when it comes to access to intelligence. There's the Five Eyes tier (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) where pretty much everything is shared and then there's the "other" NATO ally tier (Germany, Italy, France, Poland, etc.).

I think you're mistaking me for someone else. I agree with you that Biden is not just a "placeholder" and is an active participant in formulating this administration's policy.

Or, you know, he could just be a normal 79 year old man who's clearly slower and not as sharp as he used to be, but is not "non compos mentis". Honestly, it reminds me of all that speculation that Putin has Parkinson's/cancer and is going to die soon, that's why he chose to invade Ukraine now.

I think an anti-drone Switchblade type loitering munition would be acceptable if it can be done cheaply. Cooper is based in Austria and he's, errr, not terribly fond of the US media.

Tom Cooper did an interview in Czech with a few interesting claims: https://eurozpravy.cz/zahranicni/evropa/rozhovor-letecka-valka-na-ukrajine-ukazala-ze-vychvalovane-ruske-zbrane-maji-zasadni-slabiny-rika-letecky-historik-tom-cooper.18ddfd22/ That is a pretty long kill chain. I think the Coalition was managing better than that during Desert Storm 30 years ago.