Calamine Waffles

Doctrinally, S-300Ps (the ones on wheeled launchers) are usually deployed near important locations like military bases, cities, and infrastructure. Basically, it replaced things like the S-125 and S-75. The tracked one you are probably referring to is the S-300V1, it usually protects troop concentrations and forces, and is on tracks for better cross country mobility for that reason. It replaced the 2K11 Krug, and is basically what the Patriot is to the US Army.

Yeah, the same Kherson poster later clarified it was a mistake, they are the same helicopter in Donetsk.

Article on Kropyva, the Ukrainian artillery automatic tactical management system (ATMS) https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/kropyva-ukrainian-artillery-application-e5c6161b6c0a

Why would they want to show it in action? Why would they want to disclose the area where those things operate? How could you tell it's a different S-300 system from the ones Ukraine already operates? Did the Ukrainians give it a very special paintjob as a thank you to the Slovaks?

If it was credible, they would have published photo evidence of it and the Russian propaganda TV would be crowing about it. And Slovakia sent S-300s. Not S-400s.

Also, with all the stuff Ukraine has been capturing during this war, you can be sure the US is already studying key components of the Russian air defence and ECM systems that have been captured.

I mean, at the end of the day, it's kind of a moot point because the only likely scenario is going to be a NATO vs. Russia war, where the US will be involved anyway. But the main point is that an IADS of S-400s is not some magic impenetrable shield. The history of modern warfare is full of examples where air defence systems overpromise and underdeliver.

I don't know. I would expect the US helps them train and equip for this kind of scenario.

They just shot down an Mi-24 near Kherson: That's just what happens when you send an air force with zero SEAD capabilities and experience against a country with fairly reasonable air defences.

If there's been one thing consistently shown in the history of 20th century warfare, it's that air defence systems are usually much less capable than advertised.

Tom Cooper, who writes a lot about the Arab Air Forces during the Cold War, gives his view on the performance of both the VVS and the PSU: https://theaviationgeekclub.com/the-failure-of-air-power-during-the-russia-ukraine-war/ Also talks about the Kh-22 being fired by the Tu-22Ms (which have a CEP of 3 miles) https://theaviationgeekclub.com/russian-tu-22m-3-bombers-are-hitting-ukraine-with-kh-22-as-4-kitchen-1960s-missiles-but-since-they-have-a-circular-error-probable-of-3-miles-they-are-missing-their-targets/

Yeah, that's not really something you want in a nuclear state. The same for a civil war.

Are we really bringing up the whole Ronson myth again? In 2022? https://www.theshermantank.com/category/ronsons/

I don't think Medvedev commands enough respect/fear in the Russian hierarchy to be able to succeed Putin. But really, who does?

Both sides downplayed each other's contributions to winning WW2. But there can be no doubt that Lend-Lease was absolutely critical to providing the Soviets with raw materials to make weapons, explosives, and material, as well as in feeding their army and keeping it supplied, something that even Stalin himself acknowledged. They lost 2/3rds of their chemical industry for making explosives when Ukraine fell in 1941, and it was Lend-Lease that gave them the lifeline. Without Lend-Lease, then the Red Army probably fights with sticks and bayonets in 1943/44.

EDIT: accidental double post

Yes, but the entire reason the Chinese people accept the various authoritarian things the CCP does for the past 30 years is because the CCP claims to be doing all of this in order to bring prosperity and a higher standard of living for the Chinese people. This has been how they have operated since Deng. Now, can that eventually change to one where it's more like North Korea, i.e. brainwash the population into ultranationalism and paranoia against the West under Xi? Maybe. But for now at least that is not completely the case, and probably won't be for another generation or so.

It's not 2002 anymore. China doesn't need Russian tech. They already have bought everything they need or want to steal from the Russian technology base over the last 30 years since the end of the Cold War.

Ah, but you see, China is also running on a timer, because they have their own demographic crisis looming on the horizon, much like Russia. That can change the calculus a lot, and is also one of the reasons why Russia invaded now. If they didn't do it now, they would never be able to field enough manpower to fulfill their geopolitical ambitions in the future. In fact, given what's happening right now, it may already have been too late for Russia.

At the end of the day, it's a combination of two things: 1) China doesn't gain anything helping Russia in their Ukrainian debacle militarily. What is Russia going to do? Cut off oil exports to China, their largest remaining export partner? China doesn't want a strong Russia on its borders. A weakened Russia perfectly suits them, as they pretty much see Russia as a cheap resource extraction site, and the weaker they are, the more China can dictate terms. They already buy oil at a very substantial discount from Russia. 2) Even limited Western sanctions against China would be very hurtful, especially while they are still battling Covid and their economy has been battered by the lockdowns. China needs the Western markets much more than the West needs China, and they know this. These factors mean that there is nothing for them to gain providing military help to Russia, or even trying to bail out the Russian economy. Even sanction busting is risky for them, and doesn't provide much gain. The only real gain for them is political, and Russia is already pretty much forced to cozy up to China. Who else are they going to turn to? India? Brazil? Nicaragua? Iran? Venezuela? Cuba? It doesn't matter much to the Chinese politically whether they help Russia or not, and they don't gain anything providing anything more substantial than words of support. They are no different from the British Foreign Office in Yes, Prime Minister

Well, that's part of the globalised system the US established during the Cold War. But if they cut off US rare minerals imports and the US retaliates by cutting off oil and food imports to China, the latter are an existential problem for China. China *has* to import basic needs like those, the US is pretty much self-sufficient, and it is not yet at the level where the PLAN can establish maritime supremacy over the US Navy. The Chinese cutting off rare mineral imports is a major inconvenience for the US, yes, but not fatal.

For the past two decades or so, this has been changing, especially with relation to the US. China mostly makes low-level electronics for Western consumption, and as their population has been ageing and the labour costs have been going up, companies have been moving out to other places that are cheaper and/or more convenient (SE Asia, Mexico). Only companies like Apple have stubbornly remained in China, but even they are starting to see the writing on the wall. Especially with the zero-Covid lockdowns. If you tell companies "no, you can no longer do business with China, you can no longer do tech transfers, or invest in Chinese businesses," in the West the cost of stuff will go up and you suffer some inconveniences, but for them, it will be fatal, economically. We had countries like Syria gas their own people with chemical weapons with no real reaction from the West either. Bluntly put, as long as China doesn't actually launch an invasion or war against its neighbours and engages in purely internal affairs, the West + Japan/Korea will not act. But the moment they actually invade Taiwan or send actual military forces to Ukraine, it will be a very different story.

You strongly underestimate how much more Chinese sanctions will hurt them compared to the West. It will hurt the West, yes, but if you apply the sanctions Russia is facing now to China, the result will be the destruction of the Chinese economy and industry.

The ACE Models (Ukrainian model kit maker) homepage

There was an optionally manned A-10 programme at one point... https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2012-02-24/unmanned-10-studied-future-close-air-support