FancyCat

Medvedev has published a new telegram post accusing Poland of preparing to seize Western Ukraine, something they have been spouting for a bit now.

Germany benefits a lot from the trade imbalance and EU. https://www.politico.eu/article/eurozone-problem-country-germany-coronavirus/ Of course the above article does not apply to Ukraine, but the boatloads of Russian gas and oil that help feed Germany do, and fed Russian delusions about European inaction do. End of the day tho, investing in Ukraine, and assisting the European south, aside from being the right thing to do, will ultimately ensure the economic growth and prosperity that the EU is associated with remains true.

why is he holding cooking oil, a can and bread? i saw photos of people holding money and a caption that it was payment for the deaths of their relatives but tbh, i ignored it as fake cause, it looked absurd.

I wouldn't be so harsh on DMS, what he's listening to and what we are listening to are vastly different. Russian state media has been painting a narrative of Russia being surrounded by NATO and co who want to partition and destroy it for a long time, and that has been a part of Russian thinking since during the USSR. Again, DMS, the reason why Russia will never be invaded, or partitioned, or destroyed is cause Russia has nuclear weapons, and there isn't anything to stop a nuclear war from destroying both sides when started, and Russia has made clear that actions that threaten the existence of it as a state constitutes a valid reasoning to initiate nuclear war. Unless you can explain how NATO and Ukraine are going to denuclearize or partition Russia without having Putin launch the nukes, please stop asserting that Russia is fighting to preserve its existence as a state, as again, if Ukraine or NATO invade Russia, Russia can start the process of Mutual Assured Destruction.

If Russia wants to seek out normalization with the West, overthrowing Putin would do it, not necessarily handing him over. But realistically, its doubtful at this time that Putin will be overthrown, you need a lot more conditions for that to occur. More likely, the most probable result is Ukraine retakes all territory, including Donbas and Crimea, and either Russia comes to the table to settle that reality, or Ukraine and Russia simply spar at the borders, but Ukraine will probably never invade in force. Ideas like partitioning Russia, disarmament of nuclear weapons are just fantasy ideas, and not entertained seriously by anyone in government in the West or Ukraine. I would suggest anyone talking seriously here should explain how this is possible, yes Russia can't win a war against Ukraine, but certainly crushing internal revolts and dissent is well within the wheelhouse. Kamil Galeev has a winding thread on mobilization, some things to take away, LNR and DPR are already at full-scale mobilization, to act as cannon fodder, (literally crap equipment), but his last idea, that if mobilization is declared, will be localized to the nearby regions of the border with Ukraine, will avoid revolt, I seriously contest that is better than mobilizing regions closer to Moscow. Why? Imagine if conscripts are sent to fight, break and flee, and try and return home to their regions just over the border? It would be way more achievable than the current Russian forces largely taken from poorer, minority areas further away from Ukraine. Would also produce tons of discontent when they don't come back home, or disappear and their bodies aren't returned.

The reality for Russians is going to be different than the reality for someone in the West. Just off the top of my head, you have to deal with: 1. NATO vs Russia was never a contest. 2. Ukraine vs Russia was never a cakewalk. 3. Ukrainians are not accepting of Russian rule. Couple with a very long paranoia of invasion that comes from pre-Soviet history till now, and its a very difficult worldview to break out of cause its very comprehensive. Let's just get the most dangerous and obvious one out of the way, "derussification", there is no attempt to wipe out Russian culture, or the Russian people. If you see the calls to do so, they stem as a emotional response to the Russian attempt to wipe out Ukraine, and Ukrainian culture. But derussification has no basis in reality, nuclear weapons ensure external actors cannot overthrow or destroy Russia. MAD, mutual assured destruction. The same principle underlying MAD, ensures Finland, the Baltics, Poland, or Ukraine can not become launching points for the invasion of Russia, cause again, MAD. As for Ukrainians expressing their contempt for Russia and their society, I have no idea what DMS thinks of the repeated assertions by Russian state media, and the Russian government to crush Ukrainian culture. I'm not sure if he agrees that it isn't real, or that it is anti-Russia in its entirety and therefore needs to be destroyed to ensure Russian security, or whether its just bombastic rhetoric. You have to deal with the emerging reality that Russia isn't as strong as it figured itself to be, that Ukraine isn't as weak, nor Ukrainians as accepting of Russian brotherly embrace as Russians have been led to believe. Now, I'm not sure what DMS means by this, is he saying that yes, its real, yes, the government of Russia admits it, but Ukraine should hide the information to ensure the population isn't angered and out for blood? Or just that Russia is lying about this, but...is lying to strike terror into Ukrainians? And since its a lie, Ukraine should censor it and not spread the lie around?

Intermarium. It would be nice for all the prior conflicts between Eastern European states to get firmly buried like in Western Europe in a united anti-Russian, pro-EU future forward. I was skeptical of Kamil Galeev on Lukashenka but you know strip out the idiocy, strip out the obvious rhetoric supporting Russia and the dude sounds very much like he wants to get away from Putin's decisions, wants Putin to give up in Ukraine, warns the West that Putin won't fight NATO and therefore I think, if your saying the threat of nuclear war is fake and the war should end, your saying to NATO, hurry the **** up and finish it, give Ukraine all the weapons you want, and publicity placed himself against nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine, I think a good sign if Putin uses nukes, Belarus is gonna beg Ukraine to not invade it and Lukashenka would stab Putin in the back. As is, he is definitely stabbing him a bit with that war with NATO comment. Clown he needs to be, Putin has been cleaning up oligarchs for less.

A extremely important thread, where the NCO training provided by the West is actually less impactful than stated by some, if already posted, should be posted again to emphasize the agency of Ukrainians independent of the west in warfighting. Interviews with members of the Ukrainian military emphasize that the model of NCOs was too early to be widespread, and that the model of rotating units and conscripts and specialists allowed widespread training to be undertaken despite being a weaker country than Russia for example with more resources and manpower, Ukraine has been able to seemingly equalize the equation. In this sense I think emphasis on unity of purpose and morale is very important. Russia and Ukraine both have conscripts, but so far the reserves Ukraine is bringing up are showing higher quality than that of Russia's contract personnel.

OBrien thinks this is aimed at Russia, but I'm of the opinion it's Lukashenko doing his best to persuade the West to restrain Ukraine from walking into Minsk after finishing the war.

I saw some Twitter replier state that when the Ukrainian General Staff announced a offensive in Kiev, Russian forces began withdrawing within a week later. Interesting if really true this occurs again. This is being reported from Ukraine so grain of salt is important. 4th Guards Tank Division, or the Kantemirovskaya Division is the same unit that got kicked out of Trostyanets in Sumy Oblast no? Christ, the pain Russian elite units are taking must be huge. I hope the Ukrainians are doing better. I also hope we get a chance to learn more about the units on the Ukrainian side from a western perspective. I'm sure Ukrainians know things like brigades and units that fight hard as hell (tho I'm sure all do) but unfortunately aside from Azov, the Ukrainian Marines, JFO, and TDF, I can't name anything else off the top of my head.

According to this reporter, these SU-25s are Ukrainian, and in Eastern Ukraine. Some nice visual confirmation that the Ukrainian Air Force are active still.

A nice visual showing the front lines changed by the recent Ukrainian action near Kharkov.

I'm very surprised that Ukraine is launching a counteroffensive at Izyum, isn't that where supposedly the Russians placed a ton of offensive power? It must mean that power is exhausted.

Even if i ignored these accusations of rape, (which I ain't) I think I'm comfortable calling Russian soldiers savages when they go thru town and kill every male below the age 50. Or bomb a theater full of civilians. Or deport thousands of Ukrainians to Russia without proper ICRC supervision and monitoring. Or any other number of warcrimes being done with evidence piling up.

Thread on Ukrainian reinforcements being higher quality, and Russian reinforcements being of older and usually inferior quality. Now, that said, I'm surprised he considers the estimates of 20-30k foreign fighters for Ukraine to be true. Oh I definitely do not think North American, or European or Russian or Chinese interests in Africa are of the manner I'm referring to, but definitely only time will tell how things pan out.

In my opinion, the old manner of having puppet states relying on you for money in return for resources, is a far inferior manner of control and benefit than economic intercooperation where both economics, the "puppet" and "puppeteer" strengthen each other and benefit from ensuring economic growth occurs in both countries. In that sense, the economic decline of Russia will have a impact on her neighbors and close economic partners no matter what, and increase the cost of doing business in Russia. Again, if the objective of China is accessing now and future resources in Russia, it will cost more in the future, than less despite Russian dependence on China. (if the intent is simply just getting the cheapest cost at whatever can be sent now, sure that will be cheaper, but it will run out, and investment required to get new sources, and that will be way more expensive to do, many high end technologies are from the West) As a result of the recent war, NATO member states are joining Pacific region states in ramping up military spending, any future conflict between the West, China and Russia envisioned a double threat model, Russia vs Europe, China vs U.S that would divide U.S attention and make it more likely for a successful conclusion of the conflict. This new situation, would require China to devote significant attention to Russia, same as say the U.S to Europe, except we can see a stronger Europe able to hold itself without as much American attention. A reversal of the prior expectation.

You think Arctic fishing rights is worth the Chinese pain of having to invest resources, time, and money to Russia to exploit the resources? Most of Russia's economic output is geared to Europe, China can't replace the business done with Europe, to even get the business done with Russia up to the level of Europe requires investment to gear up to be worth the same. Russia has shown itself incapable of competing militarily with NATO, and Russian capital wasn't enough to fund a navy, army and airforce to match NATO or even seemingly compete, and that was before sanctions, Arctic fishing, hell Arctic transit routes would require China to invest a ungodly amount to build up a Russian navy, air force and army worth a damn to compete against NATO. This is way more pain than what China probably calculated before the invasion of Ukraine, and had China known the Russian tiger was actually paper origami, theres a very good chance China would have strongly come out against Russia privately to try and stop them from burning themselves alive as they are doing now.

The problem with pulling Russia towards Europe is the grand bargain Eastern Europeans have suspected would occur with bringing Russia closer to the West, where the West and especially Germany and France sacrifice Eastern Europe to Russian sphere of influence and instead conclude a grand European alliance with France and Germany controlling the EU, and Russia controlling EE. Its one of the reasons why NATO's bulwark has always been the United States and not France or Germany for EE states. As this recent invasion has demonstrated, the Russian demand for her rightful sphere of influence remains intact. I would argue that old guy in 2015 was stating the same endgoals as the rest of the teamwork and capitalism people, only via some nebulous "history and culture" vs "teamwork and capitalism", but with the same reality bringing both to failure, Russia does not seek to join the Western bloc as a partner, it seeks its own Russian world, that may well ally with the West vs China but with the prestige, worldview of equality, and competition with the West and China. In effect, as much of Western Europe is stunned to realize now, Russia was never going to accept joining the West without her own Empire to do as she wished. As I've stated before, China does not need a subservient Russia relying on it to survive. As Russia was never going to join the West without her Empire and the West would never accept a new Russian Empire, Russia was always going to be closer to China than the West, what China wanted to see was a strong Russia seize Ukraine, show the uselessness of the West to stop it, herald a new age of emerging power blocs, and strike a blow against democratic states, in effect become a strong ally to China, yes, China and Russia could compete in Central Asia and the Pacific, but again, the biggest Russian want is the gaining of her western territories. China has to compete vs the U.S, and the fulfillment of that goal via seizure of central asia and pacific areas of Russia, is basically fulfilled by a strong Russia who will economically cooperate with China instead of the West. What is going to happen now is a weak Russia that cannot compete militarily or economically with the West, meaning China will need to secure Central Asia and the Pacific with investments to continue maintaining the exploitation of resources, and invest to rebuild a Russian military to actually contest NATO. Yes, Russia is in China's sphere, but Russia was always gonna orient to China due to competing with the EU, instead of being a equal partner to China, China has to spend money on supporting a state that may well become a black hole instead of something that can stand on its own two feet.

Something to add on to that, Russians consider themselves superior, chosen by God, etc, the famed Russian chauvinism. The turning of the little brother against the elder constitutes a dagger at the throat of the elder. Matches well with the rhetoric of the West being intent on destroying Russia and Russians, and their culture. What better way than for family to kill family? In more practical terms, a successful little brother turning into the open arms of the West may well cause the rest of the Russian family to turn away from Russia and to the West. A Ukraine that is successful inside the EU may well convince Belarusians to turn awag and many Russians themselves to revolt against Russian elite and by extension their society and culture.

When you add in the brutality of Russian culture, and disregard for human life, it makes sense. For example, the minimization of spousal violence in Russia. If the idea of beating their wife is fine, and considered not abusive, well...you start to see the image of a society that does not regard violence as bad. Not to mention their brutality of conscripts, it's built into their military training regime. Dedovshchina. It is entirely within parameters for Russians to treat their "younger brother" with horrible violence for their transgressions.

For those wondering why two "fraternal" peoples can end up this way, leaving aside colonial and imperialist discussion, Ukrainians are betraying their identities as Russians, to accept the West, to become part of the anti-Russia. So in the sense they are "fraternal", Ukrainians have broken the fraternal bond first. It really isn't surprising at the war crimes being inflicted, if you realize the framing. These are simply corrective measures at a wayward little brother (for Ukrainians and Ukraine is a younger brother to Russia and Russians) who has fallen into some very disturbing hatred against their elder brother.

Not exactly, Ukrainians are Russians who have fallen/been infected for/by the West, turned their back on Russia, so they are subhuman, but due to being traitors accepting the devil's bargain. If you want to rejoin Russia, you can! If not the filtration camps will determine whether rehabilitation is possible (if not, the mass graves are your ending) and gulags will turn you back into a Russian via torture over a prolonged period of time. So that the phone call is real matches pretty well with their dehumanizing rhetoric. One thing to utterly emphasize this is not rogue elements, this is state policy. It is state policy to deploy their dehumanizing rhetoric, it is state policy for their filtration camps and mass graves, and it is state policy to inflict terror on the civilian population to force compliance.

UKR General Staff, is reporting fighting in the area of Tomyna Balka, ISW's map shows it as deep in Russian territory right now. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/4/7343874/

Not just white noise, you also need the ability to transfer the data to where it can be used. Certainly the lack of land-air cooperation we see with Russian forces speaks to that. If I were the U.S, I would toss some funding into hiring some of these OSINT twitter people. Admittedly many of these orgs like Inform Napalm and Bellingcat have funding from U.S gov orgs. Tho maybe the U.S has better people and knows this stuff already? Who knows.