FancyCat

Been waiting for someone to mention how most of the world is neutral, or Russian leaning. Big reminder, most Russian trade is with Europe, or Western aligned nations, so end of the day, combined with the fact that NATO is the big dog of military alliances, really, it does not particularly matter that South American nations are neutral or aligned with Russia, same for Africa, the Middle East......the economic trade, any "volunteers", any military support is not going to tilt the balance vs the West (theres a big lesson here in a future China vs the West conflict, im sure there is some loud cursing at Putin in China right now)(i mean yes, mutual economic destruction but its mutual). As economics and military spending, there is good money in Ukraine entering NATO, for the military industrial complex that would equip Ukraine that would outweigh Russian imports of NATO country arms. As for accusations of prolonged war being good for business, nah, I don't subscribe to that, Ukraine is a essential exporting country, the loss of that is going to generate way more instability and loss of profits vs money made on a eternal war. Now, mind you, NATO military industrial complex will be arming Ukraine, whether it wins the war or is in stalemate forever, as Russia will most likely never be permanently defeated, so the faster Ukraine wins, the sooner Ukraine can get charged for buying arms. Hell, Ukraine has oil and gas reserves aplenty, if I were Germany, I would knock some sense into their crying business Elite and refocus them on a emerging EU candidate that might well be willing to do the needed measures to join the EU. Part of the focus on interaction with Russia is based on its hard power, well, that issue is being resolved right now, and yeah yeah, corruption, but any look at the civil society of Ukraine, a mob that isn't afraid of tossing their leaders, having done so twice since independence, my money is on Ukraine.

Ensuring the Kherson Peoples Republic never comes to fruition is probably the most important goal. It will spook Crimea, be a decisive blow to Putin’s wargoals, empower further Ukrainian occupied resistance, and impart to all potential collaborators to not rise.

I don't think Snake Island is too terribly important, but a Russian garrison and defenses exist, but footage below shows 2 Raptor class patrol boats being turned into flaming wrecks near it, courtesy of TB2. Armament is heavy machine guns, maybe grenade launchers. Twitter thread states with the loss of the Moskva, attacks on Snake Island are easier, as it was patrolling the area, and the remaining ADS of the BSF seemingly need to be held close to Crimea's S400 ranges for protection. Ukraine claimed a Strela-10 destroyed on the island plus a command post earlier last week so with this, I think Russia should probably evacuate the island.

Definitely, the pro-Ukrainian public sentiments in much of Europe, are some of the levers Ukraine can use to push for their viewpoints to be accepted but as we saw with Scholz having to spar with the leading members of his coalition government over tanks and heavy weapons to Ukraine, the viewpoints of the public majority and the government/ruling elite/business class don't always align. Its one thing to reinforce a weaker power defending vs a great power, another thing when Ukraine is about to reconquer the Donbas and Crimea. There are still levers for Russia to pull on, economic damage from the loss of oil and gas to Europe, and one reason why I caution against the idea of Ukraine taking its sweet time mounting a counter offensive, imagine a counteroffensive is pulled off and Russia is forced to defend Crimea and Donbas, let's assume for one reason or another, Ukraine can't conquer the remaining territories in the summer without another few months of regrouping, I can see Russia cutting off Europe just in time for winter, and while measures to bulk up energy imports are proceeding, it's far too much to get cut off from to prevent economic downturns majorly in Europe. Russian political influence is waning, but I think economic burdens, a Ukraine seemingly paused amid a "stalemate", and a Russia switching to more of a willingness to negotiate to retain Crimea and Donbas, may allow factions of European governments to argue for Ukraine to settle. Now, if Ukraine gets Europe to enact the oil and gas bans first before Russian cut off, sure thats much harder for Europe to repeal the ban, than a preempt measure by Russia to force Europe to persuade Ukraine to settle. And if Ukraine can undertake the offensives needed before the economic and time passing measures bite, than not much for the West to get cold feet on. Why I think Ukraine can't dally with retaking Kherson, once Russia starts shifting the view to holding its taken lands instead of gaining more, Ukraine needs to ensure Western support does not get meek at the idea of a long stalemate, by illustrating the capability of a Ukrainian offensive and the inevitability of Ukraine regaining all lands.

Or the regional governor has a good excuse for why the local war effort is failing.... sabotage by Ukrainians is a great way at covering up their own failings, as the blame game for the performance of the Russian military and security services continues. Sharp disagreement? Eh....I daresay once Ukraine shocks (and I will stand by the use of "shock", I don't doubt there are still people in some sort of disbelief that crappy Ukraine is going to defeat Russia and not just be graciously allowed to retain their independence with only some land lost) the West and the World with their counteroffensive, I'm sure the calls for ceasefire will start, only this time to prevent Ukraine "unfairly" seizing the Donbas and Crimea and causing nuclear war to boot. Germany, France, Italy are the major western powers i think may be most willing to say something. Now, certainly I may be wrong in that the cracks will form sooner than Putin's overthrow but I still think while the influence of Russia is waning, and Ukraine is gaining, it certainly won't be long before Ukraine needs to forcibly assert that it is fighting the war, and tell the meek Western powers to shove it and that Ukraine will take back her legitimate territory, western criticism be damned. The mindset of Ukraine being a weaker power is quite entrenched and I'm not sure heroic resistance has banished all of that perception.

You have a much higher opinion of western states than I do, certainly Poland, the Baltics, Finland, will hold and follow Ukraine's wishes, Germany, France, Hungary, Italy? Nah, Ukraine will certainly have to do work to keep them toeing their line, and they will definitely want to make peace with Russia sooner than Ukraine. Britain will reflexively counter on the side of Ukraine since you know counterbalance in Europe, the U.S will probably lean more towards EE and Ukraine, but certainly it won't be a united front.

Certainly that is one reason for the bridge to Crimea to stay upright, to facilitate the movement of Russians back into Russia than trapped on Crimea. I suspect one of the reasons why Ukraine isn't too intent on surrounding Russian units or pushing into Russian controlled urban regions and risking urban combat is seeking to minimize both their own casualties, civilians, and to maximize the potential for Russians to cut and run. With the way the SBU seems on top of pursuing Russian operations, I do feel like sooner or later some of these war criminals are going to reappear in Ukraine after the war despite being in Russia.

Big thread but I wanted to show apparently Ukrainians have deployed new units into the Donbas.

Let's assume the Russians arent lying about a million Ukrainians in Russia now, how many Ukrainians lived in the occupied areas in total? Trying to figure out the suspected percentages between willing pro-Russian and unwilling, (but wouldn't willing pro-Russians stay on the occupied land?)(or do you suppose the supply situation is such that pro-russian civilians can't access Russian supply lines? That could explain some depopulation ongoing to safer locations with access to food and shelter. I'm not sure Ukraine is gonna just let a million ****ing people disappear from Ukraine.

Assuming Russia isn't attempting to bluff it's way into either nuclear war vs favorable peace, the use of a tactical nuke to gain a advantage in Ukraine is pretty useless. It won't give Russia a military advantage, it would utterly poison Ukrainian defeatism, it would shatter Russia's international image and invite escalation by NATO. If Russia is intent on securing peace thru deployment of nuclear weapons, mind you it opens the door to new precedents, like the ability for nuclear armed states to strongarm non-nuclear states, it would allow Russia to threaten NATO in a future conflict over Eastern Europe, etc. If it's meant for a terror weapon, I don't think it would work that way, if it is to secure a tactical advantage, it won't fix Russian disadvantages preventing their offensive into the rest of Ukraine. While Putin may want to persuade the world into considering his position on nukes is dangerously close to launch, it is really vital the world holds against the viability of nuclear weapons in a war of aggression.

What I'm saying there's a decent chance there isn't any profit at all. Would wager that it becomes a black hole of money even.

How much profit can a sanctioned Russia give tho to China? Yes natural resources but....Russia needs that money more than China needs the resources, plus the infrastructure for Russian natural resource extraction is aligned with Europe, so not only does China have advantage with Russia in trading already for favorable pricing so further discounts mean virtually nothing, since Russian capital is gonna be not enough to fund resource extraction, China is gonna need to spend money and investment that could go to much more profitable investments and less on safer sources of natural resources and profit. China does not need a basket case showing to the world why militarily fighting the West is a bad idea. They needed a strong ally to compete with the West together and Putin has ****ed it up hard.

maybe just a effort at showing off Russian hacking prowess. that the list isn't real is irrelevant, if meant for domestic consumption in Russia.

If I were NATO, I wouldn't undertake any offensive action beyond Ukrainian borders in the event of war being declared. Not even airstrikes on targets firing onto NATO land. Defensive only on NATO soil. If Ukraine wants to undertake it, that's fine, but NATO should absolutely stay away from offensive action that could threaten Russia on home soil. That twitter thread concerning EU oil and gas being cut off from Russia, we are already seeing this occur, I think assuming if the infrastructure is there for it, the EU will move to allocate supply for cut off members.

Now maybe joining the territorial defense isn't as much a life ending event these days but a Vice President of Gazprom deciding to become a traitor to Russia and joining Ukraine is very...funny? He could have had a comfortable existence in neutrality but then again some of these killings are in Europe so I suppose Ukraine may be the safest place for those on Putin's **** list. I hope the Ukrainian government and people give any Russians (citizens) who decide to flee/defect to Ukraine the ability to become Ukrainian citizens, service for citizenship if needed. Not really relevant to military victory, but social-politically, it lays out that Ukraine has won already and in my opinion, is quite persuasive in backing it up. Very interesting at 20:41, about the death of Russkiy Mir (Russian World) and the rise of the Intermarium, a concept of a central European geopolitical bloc to compete with Russia and Western Europe, and it's something that makes a lot of sense to me. Combine Belarus, Poland and Ukraine and you get 90 million people, that would outnumber Germany with 83 million. Just Poland and Ukraine alone would be population wise be competitive with Germany and out number France. A very potent amount of human capital. Europe would be a fool to turn it away, especially after now, but I'm sure Europe will welcome Ukraine with open arms and it will be extraordinarily positive for European integrity, to have a member state who gave it's blood for Europe. A inspiring sight, one sure to renew (is renewing!) the European project. In that sense, Putin and Russian imperialists are entirely correct, without Ukraine, there can be no Russian Empire. With his invasion, he has buried the Russian world.

it's a well worth read. Astounding, I mean I knew the Russians had sent units to Kiev to decapitate the government (a la Afghanistan anyone?) but to hear it described as gunfire being heard, and his wife and kids right beside him, Christ, very brave for him not to flee to Poland or even to a bunker in I suppose in Lviv. The article states many officials and officers fled. Zelensky did not threaten for their return or give them a ultimatum, he let them secure their families and then asked them to come back, and most did. Very interesting, and how fortunate Ukraine has Poland and Moldova and Romania to safeguard her people while Ukraine fights.

There is a lot of reasons to show that Russia is actually fighting against NATO. One, gives Putin a escape for why the Russian military is getting trashed vs inferior Ukraine. Two, when Russia gets defeated, the defeat will go down easier than Russians realizing their former imperial subject is a fighter in their own right. That is why it's important for Ukraine to take the lead in peace talks, and for NATO to refrain from great power negotiations that may or may not sacrifice Ukraine's agency as the U.S and Russia hash it out with Ukraine on a map. It may be easier for Russians to accept being defeated by NATO than Ukraine, and certainly that would mean more likelihood Putin keeps his head. Something else to add, as long as Russia has nukes, external overthrow cannot occur, only internally can the Russian state be changed. A former imperial subject dictating peace terms is a major humiliation vs a great power clash. Putin will seek to expand conflict to NATO more overtly, if nothing else than to force a great power peace conference where Ukraine is not the one sitting at the other end of the very long table. In that sense, the restrain shown by Biden and NATO is well suited for opposing Putin.

China was probably content to let Ukraine get eaten up, assuming like the West and Russians themselves were correct in Russia being stronger than they really are, and then have a strong ally to further confront and divide the West, instead Putin has ****ed it all up so badly NATO suddenly looks real good again. Yes, China can gain more influence over Russia, but a Russia relying on financial support from China is not in China's interest, a fellow authoritarian state that can ally with China and oppose Western influence worldwide was the goal, and instead Russia's actions have only strengthened Western resolve and tossed Russia into the garbage bin. The raw resources in Siberia are great and all, but the market China sells to is the West, and their domestic market aint ready to replace that trade, and so like Russia, any goals for opposing Western action involves dividing the West to ensure trade actions and sanctions fail, and all Russia has done is drive Ukraine fully into Europe, driven Europe and the U.S closer, China may punish Russia simply out of anger at the outcome of this.

and a ton of their high-tech workers are fleeing to better pastures.....

Couldn't have the plane gone down into the Dnipro?

Aren't many of the chips in Russian cruise missiles american? Tons of components are European. While probably china can replace most components, it will be expensive and with what money for Russia to pay with? Especially when sanctions raise the cost of business?

So I forgot, and just remembered, historically, Russia has had successful coups/revolutions initialized/joined by conscripted soldiers who usually do it, following military defeats, so for the Kremlin, it's not just unpopularity and civilian protests it's worried about, but a precept with long history. Considering how badly Ukraine is kicking Russia in the teeth, mobilization may be the only route to actually defeating Ukraine even simply forcing Ukraine to a stalemate, but if they miscalculate and suffer military defeats, certainly Putin's head is on the chopping block moreso than this current "special operation". There's a pretty good chance mobilization never occurs, that this is all they have. (What a miscalculation so far...) I suppose Ukraine will try and hold what they can while prepping a counter offensive that it will unleash at the right moment, I hope the front can hold until then.

VDV gets better training/perks no? Could explain why they get briefings, they do the more "risky" missions.

Neptune antiship missiles exist, it would be a suicide run, wouldn't it?

So about Transnistria, let's assume Putin has asked and gotten them to militarily pursue objectives. Would it be expansion of it's territory into Moldovan controlled regions? Expansion into Ukraine? Assume a defensive position with intent to tie down further Ukrainian forces? Sortie into Odessa?