FancyCat

Thread on Ukrainian reinforcements being higher quality, and Russian reinforcements being of older and usually inferior quality. Now, that said, I'm surprised he considers the estimates of 20-30k foreign fighters for Ukraine to be true. Oh I definitely do not think North American, or European or Russian or Chinese interests in Africa are of the manner I'm referring to, but definitely only time will tell how things pan out.

In my opinion, the old manner of having puppet states relying on you for money in return for resources, is a far inferior manner of control and benefit than economic intercooperation where both economics, the "puppet" and "puppeteer" strengthen each other and benefit from ensuring economic growth occurs in both countries. In that sense, the economic decline of Russia will have a impact on her neighbors and close economic partners no matter what, and increase the cost of doing business in Russia. Again, if the objective of China is accessing now and future resources in Russia, it will cost more in the future, than less despite Russian dependence on China. (if the intent is simply just getting the cheapest cost at whatever can be sent now, sure that will be cheaper, but it will run out, and investment required to get new sources, and that will be way more expensive to do, many high end technologies are from the West) As a result of the recent war, NATO member states are joining Pacific region states in ramping up military spending, any future conflict between the West, China and Russia envisioned a double threat model, Russia vs Europe, China vs U.S that would divide U.S attention and make it more likely for a successful conclusion of the conflict. This new situation, would require China to devote significant attention to Russia, same as say the U.S to Europe, except we can see a stronger Europe able to hold itself without as much American attention. A reversal of the prior expectation.

You think Arctic fishing rights is worth the Chinese pain of having to invest resources, time, and money to Russia to exploit the resources? Most of Russia's economic output is geared to Europe, China can't replace the business done with Europe, to even get the business done with Russia up to the level of Europe requires investment to gear up to be worth the same. Russia has shown itself incapable of competing militarily with NATO, and Russian capital wasn't enough to fund a navy, army and airforce to match NATO or even seemingly compete, and that was before sanctions, Arctic fishing, hell Arctic transit routes would require China to invest a ungodly amount to build up a Russian navy, air force and army worth a damn to compete against NATO. This is way more pain than what China probably calculated before the invasion of Ukraine, and had China known the Russian tiger was actually paper origami, theres a very good chance China would have strongly come out against Russia privately to try and stop them from burning themselves alive as they are doing now.

The problem with pulling Russia towards Europe is the grand bargain Eastern Europeans have suspected would occur with bringing Russia closer to the West, where the West and especially Germany and France sacrifice Eastern Europe to Russian sphere of influence and instead conclude a grand European alliance with France and Germany controlling the EU, and Russia controlling EE. Its one of the reasons why NATO's bulwark has always been the United States and not France or Germany for EE states. As this recent invasion has demonstrated, the Russian demand for her rightful sphere of influence remains intact. I would argue that old guy in 2015 was stating the same endgoals as the rest of the teamwork and capitalism people, only via some nebulous "history and culture" vs "teamwork and capitalism", but with the same reality bringing both to failure, Russia does not seek to join the Western bloc as a partner, it seeks its own Russian world, that may well ally with the West vs China but with the prestige, worldview of equality, and competition with the West and China. In effect, as much of Western Europe is stunned to realize now, Russia was never going to accept joining the West without her own Empire to do as she wished. As I've stated before, China does not need a subservient Russia relying on it to survive. As Russia was never going to join the West without her Empire and the West would never accept a new Russian Empire, Russia was always going to be closer to China than the West, what China wanted to see was a strong Russia seize Ukraine, show the uselessness of the West to stop it, herald a new age of emerging power blocs, and strike a blow against democratic states, in effect become a strong ally to China, yes, China and Russia could compete in Central Asia and the Pacific, but again, the biggest Russian want is the gaining of her western territories. China has to compete vs the U.S, and the fulfillment of that goal via seizure of central asia and pacific areas of Russia, is basically fulfilled by a strong Russia who will economically cooperate with China instead of the West. What is going to happen now is a weak Russia that cannot compete militarily or economically with the West, meaning China will need to secure Central Asia and the Pacific with investments to continue maintaining the exploitation of resources, and invest to rebuild a Russian military to actually contest NATO. Yes, Russia is in China's sphere, but Russia was always gonna orient to China due to competing with the EU, instead of being a equal partner to China, China has to spend money on supporting a state that may well become a black hole instead of something that can stand on its own two feet.

Something to add on to that, Russians consider themselves superior, chosen by God, etc, the famed Russian chauvinism. The turning of the little brother against the elder constitutes a dagger at the throat of the elder. Matches well with the rhetoric of the West being intent on destroying Russia and Russians, and their culture. What better way than for family to kill family? In more practical terms, a successful little brother turning into the open arms of the West may well cause the rest of the Russian family to turn away from Russia and to the West. A Ukraine that is successful inside the EU may well convince Belarusians to turn awag and many Russians themselves to revolt against Russian elite and by extension their society and culture.

When you add in the brutality of Russian culture, and disregard for human life, it makes sense. For example, the minimization of spousal violence in Russia. If the idea of beating their wife is fine, and considered not abusive, well...you start to see the image of a society that does not regard violence as bad. Not to mention their brutality of conscripts, it's built into their military training regime. Dedovshchina. It is entirely within parameters for Russians to treat their "younger brother" with horrible violence for their transgressions.

For those wondering why two "fraternal" peoples can end up this way, leaving aside colonial and imperialist discussion, Ukrainians are betraying their identities as Russians, to accept the West, to become part of the anti-Russia. So in the sense they are "fraternal", Ukrainians have broken the fraternal bond first. It really isn't surprising at the war crimes being inflicted, if you realize the framing. These are simply corrective measures at a wayward little brother (for Ukrainians and Ukraine is a younger brother to Russia and Russians) who has fallen into some very disturbing hatred against their elder brother.

Not exactly, Ukrainians are Russians who have fallen/been infected for/by the West, turned their back on Russia, so they are subhuman, but due to being traitors accepting the devil's bargain. If you want to rejoin Russia, you can! If not the filtration camps will determine whether rehabilitation is possible (if not, the mass graves are your ending) and gulags will turn you back into a Russian via torture over a prolonged period of time. So that the phone call is real matches pretty well with their dehumanizing rhetoric. One thing to utterly emphasize this is not rogue elements, this is state policy. It is state policy to deploy their dehumanizing rhetoric, it is state policy for their filtration camps and mass graves, and it is state policy to inflict terror on the civilian population to force compliance.

UKR General Staff, is reporting fighting in the area of Tomyna Balka, ISW's map shows it as deep in Russian territory right now. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/4/7343874/

Not just white noise, you also need the ability to transfer the data to where it can be used. Certainly the lack of land-air cooperation we see with Russian forces speaks to that. If I were the U.S, I would toss some funding into hiring some of these OSINT twitter people. Admittedly many of these orgs like Inform Napalm and Bellingcat have funding from U.S gov orgs. Tho maybe the U.S has better people and knows this stuff already? Who knows.

Been waiting for someone to mention how most of the world is neutral, or Russian leaning. Big reminder, most Russian trade is with Europe, or Western aligned nations, so end of the day, combined with the fact that NATO is the big dog of military alliances, really, it does not particularly matter that South American nations are neutral or aligned with Russia, same for Africa, the Middle East......the economic trade, any "volunteers", any military support is not going to tilt the balance vs the West (theres a big lesson here in a future China vs the West conflict, im sure there is some loud cursing at Putin in China right now)(i mean yes, mutual economic destruction but its mutual). As economics and military spending, there is good money in Ukraine entering NATO, for the military industrial complex that would equip Ukraine that would outweigh Russian imports of NATO country arms. As for accusations of prolonged war being good for business, nah, I don't subscribe to that, Ukraine is a essential exporting country, the loss of that is going to generate way more instability and loss of profits vs money made on a eternal war. Now, mind you, NATO military industrial complex will be arming Ukraine, whether it wins the war or is in stalemate forever, as Russia will most likely never be permanently defeated, so the faster Ukraine wins, the sooner Ukraine can get charged for buying arms. Hell, Ukraine has oil and gas reserves aplenty, if I were Germany, I would knock some sense into their crying business Elite and refocus them on a emerging EU candidate that might well be willing to do the needed measures to join the EU. Part of the focus on interaction with Russia is based on its hard power, well, that issue is being resolved right now, and yeah yeah, corruption, but any look at the civil society of Ukraine, a mob that isn't afraid of tossing their leaders, having done so twice since independence, my money is on Ukraine.

Ensuring the Kherson Peoples Republic never comes to fruition is probably the most important goal. It will spook Crimea, be a decisive blow to Putin’s wargoals, empower further Ukrainian occupied resistance, and impart to all potential collaborators to not rise.

I don't think Snake Island is too terribly important, but a Russian garrison and defenses exist, but footage below shows 2 Raptor class patrol boats being turned into flaming wrecks near it, courtesy of TB2. Armament is heavy machine guns, maybe grenade launchers. Twitter thread states with the loss of the Moskva, attacks on Snake Island are easier, as it was patrolling the area, and the remaining ADS of the BSF seemingly need to be held close to Crimea's S400 ranges for protection. Ukraine claimed a Strela-10 destroyed on the island plus a command post earlier last week so with this, I think Russia should probably evacuate the island.

Definitely, the pro-Ukrainian public sentiments in much of Europe, are some of the levers Ukraine can use to push for their viewpoints to be accepted but as we saw with Scholz having to spar with the leading members of his coalition government over tanks and heavy weapons to Ukraine, the viewpoints of the public majority and the government/ruling elite/business class don't always align. Its one thing to reinforce a weaker power defending vs a great power, another thing when Ukraine is about to reconquer the Donbas and Crimea. There are still levers for Russia to pull on, economic damage from the loss of oil and gas to Europe, and one reason why I caution against the idea of Ukraine taking its sweet time mounting a counter offensive, imagine a counteroffensive is pulled off and Russia is forced to defend Crimea and Donbas, let's assume for one reason or another, Ukraine can't conquer the remaining territories in the summer without another few months of regrouping, I can see Russia cutting off Europe just in time for winter, and while measures to bulk up energy imports are proceeding, it's far too much to get cut off from to prevent economic downturns majorly in Europe. Russian political influence is waning, but I think economic burdens, a Ukraine seemingly paused amid a "stalemate", and a Russia switching to more of a willingness to negotiate to retain Crimea and Donbas, may allow factions of European governments to argue for Ukraine to settle. Now, if Ukraine gets Europe to enact the oil and gas bans first before Russian cut off, sure thats much harder for Europe to repeal the ban, than a preempt measure by Russia to force Europe to persuade Ukraine to settle. And if Ukraine can undertake the offensives needed before the economic and time passing measures bite, than not much for the West to get cold feet on. Why I think Ukraine can't dally with retaking Kherson, once Russia starts shifting the view to holding its taken lands instead of gaining more, Ukraine needs to ensure Western support does not get meek at the idea of a long stalemate, by illustrating the capability of a Ukrainian offensive and the inevitability of Ukraine regaining all lands.

Or the regional governor has a good excuse for why the local war effort is failing.... sabotage by Ukrainians is a great way at covering up their own failings, as the blame game for the performance of the Russian military and security services continues. Sharp disagreement? Eh....I daresay once Ukraine shocks (and I will stand by the use of "shock", I don't doubt there are still people in some sort of disbelief that crappy Ukraine is going to defeat Russia and not just be graciously allowed to retain their independence with only some land lost) the West and the World with their counteroffensive, I'm sure the calls for ceasefire will start, only this time to prevent Ukraine "unfairly" seizing the Donbas and Crimea and causing nuclear war to boot. Germany, France, Italy are the major western powers i think may be most willing to say something. Now, certainly I may be wrong in that the cracks will form sooner than Putin's overthrow but I still think while the influence of Russia is waning, and Ukraine is gaining, it certainly won't be long before Ukraine needs to forcibly assert that it is fighting the war, and tell the meek Western powers to shove it and that Ukraine will take back her legitimate territory, western criticism be damned. The mindset of Ukraine being a weaker power is quite entrenched and I'm not sure heroic resistance has banished all of that perception.

You have a much higher opinion of western states than I do, certainly Poland, the Baltics, Finland, will hold and follow Ukraine's wishes, Germany, France, Hungary, Italy? Nah, Ukraine will certainly have to do work to keep them toeing their line, and they will definitely want to make peace with Russia sooner than Ukraine. Britain will reflexively counter on the side of Ukraine since you know counterbalance in Europe, the U.S will probably lean more towards EE and Ukraine, but certainly it won't be a united front.

Certainly that is one reason for the bridge to Crimea to stay upright, to facilitate the movement of Russians back into Russia than trapped on Crimea. I suspect one of the reasons why Ukraine isn't too intent on surrounding Russian units or pushing into Russian controlled urban regions and risking urban combat is seeking to minimize both their own casualties, civilians, and to maximize the potential for Russians to cut and run. With the way the SBU seems on top of pursuing Russian operations, I do feel like sooner or later some of these war criminals are going to reappear in Ukraine after the war despite being in Russia.

Big thread but I wanted to show apparently Ukrainians have deployed new units into the Donbas.

Let's assume the Russians arent lying about a million Ukrainians in Russia now, how many Ukrainians lived in the occupied areas in total? Trying to figure out the suspected percentages between willing pro-Russian and unwilling, (but wouldn't willing pro-Russians stay on the occupied land?)(or do you suppose the supply situation is such that pro-russian civilians can't access Russian supply lines? That could explain some depopulation ongoing to safer locations with access to food and shelter. I'm not sure Ukraine is gonna just let a million ****ing people disappear from Ukraine.

Assuming Russia isn't attempting to bluff it's way into either nuclear war vs favorable peace, the use of a tactical nuke to gain a advantage in Ukraine is pretty useless. It won't give Russia a military advantage, it would utterly poison Ukrainian defeatism, it would shatter Russia's international image and invite escalation by NATO. If Russia is intent on securing peace thru deployment of nuclear weapons, mind you it opens the door to new precedents, like the ability for nuclear armed states to strongarm non-nuclear states, it would allow Russia to threaten NATO in a future conflict over Eastern Europe, etc. If it's meant for a terror weapon, I don't think it would work that way, if it is to secure a tactical advantage, it won't fix Russian disadvantages preventing their offensive into the rest of Ukraine. While Putin may want to persuade the world into considering his position on nukes is dangerously close to launch, it is really vital the world holds against the viability of nuclear weapons in a war of aggression.

What I'm saying there's a decent chance there isn't any profit at all. Would wager that it becomes a black hole of money even.

How much profit can a sanctioned Russia give tho to China? Yes natural resources but....Russia needs that money more than China needs the resources, plus the infrastructure for Russian natural resource extraction is aligned with Europe, so not only does China have advantage with Russia in trading already for favorable pricing so further discounts mean virtually nothing, since Russian capital is gonna be not enough to fund resource extraction, China is gonna need to spend money and investment that could go to much more profitable investments and less on safer sources of natural resources and profit. China does not need a basket case showing to the world why militarily fighting the West is a bad idea. They needed a strong ally to compete with the West together and Putin has ****ed it up hard.

maybe just a effort at showing off Russian hacking prowess. that the list isn't real is irrelevant, if meant for domestic consumption in Russia.

If I were NATO, I wouldn't undertake any offensive action beyond Ukrainian borders in the event of war being declared. Not even airstrikes on targets firing onto NATO land. Defensive only on NATO soil. If Ukraine wants to undertake it, that's fine, but NATO should absolutely stay away from offensive action that could threaten Russia on home soil. That twitter thread concerning EU oil and gas being cut off from Russia, we are already seeing this occur, I think assuming if the infrastructure is there for it, the EU will move to allocate supply for cut off members.

Now maybe joining the territorial defense isn't as much a life ending event these days but a Vice President of Gazprom deciding to become a traitor to Russia and joining Ukraine is very...funny? He could have had a comfortable existence in neutrality but then again some of these killings are in Europe so I suppose Ukraine may be the safest place for those on Putin's **** list. I hope the Ukrainian government and people give any Russians (citizens) who decide to flee/defect to Ukraine the ability to become Ukrainian citizens, service for citizenship if needed. Not really relevant to military victory, but social-politically, it lays out that Ukraine has won already and in my opinion, is quite persuasive in backing it up. Very interesting at 20:41, about the death of Russkiy Mir (Russian World) and the rise of the Intermarium, a concept of a central European geopolitical bloc to compete with Russia and Western Europe, and it's something that makes a lot of sense to me. Combine Belarus, Poland and Ukraine and you get 90 million people, that would outnumber Germany with 83 million. Just Poland and Ukraine alone would be population wise be competitive with Germany and out number France. A very potent amount of human capital. Europe would be a fool to turn it away, especially after now, but I'm sure Europe will welcome Ukraine with open arms and it will be extraordinarily positive for European integrity, to have a member state who gave it's blood for Europe. A inspiring sight, one sure to renew (is renewing!) the European project. In that sense, Putin and Russian imperialists are entirely correct, without Ukraine, there can be no Russian Empire. With his invasion, he has buried the Russian world.