FancyCat

bushfire probably.

According to Politico, the Biden Administration has reaffirmed Ukraine can attack targets inside her de jure borders using NATO provided weapons, including Crimea, so maybe Ukraine might start taking responsibility for the blasts ongoing in Crimea? (Maybe not, easy trolling instead) https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/08/17/u-s-approves-of-ukraine-striking-russian-occupied-crimea-00052364

Final point on Afghanistan, Biden was strongly opposed by many top brass in the military to retain a token force in Afghanistan. Despite a firestorm of negative news coverage and a drop in opinion polling that occurred at the time of the withdrawal, that has seen persistent underwater marks since then, my belief he is of sound mind, I think I can propose that the decision being made to leave illustrates his ability to not be senile, nor be controlled by other interests, especially when it was a unpopular one opposed by many, that continues to drag on his polling today. Why I see his decision as not being inept, I mean I already laid it out, by the time a peace deal was signed by the prior administration, Afghanistan's security situation was not good whatsoever. By 2020, horrid. For Biden to betray the agreement, with the little remaining U.S forces on hand in 2020, would have probably caused a full scale Taliban offensive to begin, at the least requiring intensive U.S air support to maintain what the government held and I don't bet against the fall of major cities anyhow, and so instead of a quiet withdrawal from Kabul with the Taliban looking onward, we could have had a much more hostile retreat with the Taliban nipping at our forces and again, the force needed to secure a withdrawal and evecuation of civilians requires much more forces than the original remaining drawdown amount. The idea that the Afghan government and military would somehow give their lives for a U.S withdrawal, is ridiculous as well. Once that deal was signed, it was over. You can't sign away your allies and expect them to carry water so you can leave and the amount of Afghan troops needed to defend Kabul or any other major city, that amount does not match the numbers able for them to board the last plane to leave. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/top-generals-afghanistan-withdrawal-congress-hearing-514491 Edit, On that note, if we want another example of a military making the wrong decisions aside from Russia, the American generals arguing for a token force in Afghanistan is a great example. Either they would have been forced to pull out, or as some news speculated, part of Biden's refusal to entertain a token force was the likelihood of it being a tripwire designed to increase American forces. Obviously a few thousand is not enough to hold and when down the line, the Joint Chiefs lay out the dismal situation, with a evacuation more akin to Durkirk, or the option of increasing force and prevent utter humiliation, I'm sure Biden would have felt tricked.

Well the U.S warned Ukraine about a airborne landing operation with the intent to seize the Kiev airport intact, plus special operations teams to hunt and kill the Ukrainian leadership, in January according to the article, I don't see why Russia would want to kill the Ukrainian leadership if the objective is to simply take the Donbas, and a landing force at a airfield requires a larger offensive to open up supply lines to Kiev as well. The U.S also disclosed prior to the invasion, (actually disclosed, I remember pointing it out pre-invasion on other online forum locations) plans for cleansing the occupied regions of Pro-Ukrainian civil society, government and other important figures, and that applied country-wide, so again, indicating annexation of most or all of the country. As for Ukraine's leadership and much of the country not believing in a full scale invasion....well i dare say part of the reason for the destruction of Russian-Ukrainian relations and rabid anti-Russian attitudes in Ukraine has to do with the full scale invasion occurring and willingness on the part of Russians to let (or support) Ukraine be turned into a puppet state and puppet people. A betrayal of what was familiar relations that many Ukrainians had still subscribed to somewhat till recently. And in regards to not believing, not believing is different than preparing, and we know that Ukraine did prepare, whatever Zelensky and co's sentiments on it actually occurring.

I will point out withdrawal where you are effectively abandoning thousands of people, and millions overall, there is no solution that you can salvage out a controlled, planned withdrawal that isn't effectively reinvading Afghanistan. How are you supposed to bolster a government that was collapsing that quickly in order to maintain evacuation routes? (A deal signed by Trump mind you) You can't, so you need to send in a significant force to secure the capital, except what about the rest of the major cities, now you have what, several tens of thousands of U.S personnel reinvading the major cities of Afghanistan? And obviously, you need to expand logistical footprint to ensure those thousands of U.S personnel are effectively supplied.... Afghanistan is surrounded by Iran on one side, Pakistan on the other, the central asian republics to the north, none of them have U.S bases to set up the logistics needed for U.S maintenance of long term presence in Afghanistan and i severely doubt any of them would be willing to allow it. Part of the deal was the withdrawal of U.S personnel, if the deal was violated, sure the U.S could relaunch air operations to reinforce the country but how would the U.S overfly these units? Pakistan? Sure, where did the Taliban leadership operate from until Kabul fell? Quetta. We all stare at Russia defending the west bank of the Dnieper, meanwhile we were trying to prop up a government that was land locked and surrounded by countries that are hostile to the U.S and would happily let the U.S burn itself forever in Afghanistan. No, i seriously doubt the evacuation could have turned into something of a "clean withdrawal", had we decided to "properly plan" it, all that would have resulted would be flooding it with thousands of troops against a insurgency about to achieve victory, I'm totally sure they would have sat down and let us retake their gains in the urban regions without a single American death.... In 2018, 70% of the country was already controlled or had active Taliban presence. 2015, nearing the end of the drawdown to about 15k NATO forces, this NYT article states that the UN considered half of the country's districts to have high or extreme violence threat levels, High or Extreme levels mean usual UN presence or movement is curtailed, half the country was off limits for the UN in 2015. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/12/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-united-nations.html Again, we absolutely tut tut at Russia thinking it could conquer a country of 44 million with only 200k troops, meanwhile you suggest keeping a country of 40 million under control with what? Only 10k-20k troops from collapse? Say only the urban areas, thats 10 million, not nearly enough either. Moving on from unrealistic notions, In a GUR controlled unit of the International Legion, serious allegations of abuse, violence, and failed leadership have arose, and this occurred despite higher levels of the Ukrainian government being informed. https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

LNR Steve, obviously not anyone important, and besides, they aren't really Russians anyway. The article i linked in a post above, Russian attitudes to their colonized peoples, "brother peoples" are that they are inferior. They are "Russians", but there's a clear hierarchy of status that separates them. As long as Putin illustrates his absolute terror at mobilization of the general Russian population, I daresay Russians will regard these videos as looking at a far away war as long as nothing occurs against Russia itself. The opposition head of Echo Moscow, made a amazing point, 11 million Russian families have close relatives in Ukraine, or nearly 40 million with close ties, and yet this full scale invasion occurred, despite 40 million? 144 million is the population of Russia, nearly 25% of Russia's population has ties to Ukraine, and yet the full scale invasion of Ukraine was done. The idea proposed by the head of Echo Moscow, that these are traitors, and therefore, why Russia's invasion continues is just quite a match to my ears.

The article linked has so much more information on Russia and attitudes to war. The head of former station Echo Moscow, a opposition oriented radio station, which was closed following the invasion, ill quote below, which is only part of the long article. Nevermind, look this stuff as well. Just part of the long article, please do read it all. https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/how-putin-s-war-changed-my-moscow-a-3b5049e7-93fd-4c2a-9c9f-742635ae2099 I think when looking at Ukrainian anger at Russia, this comes to mind, from article, Ukraine has "Within three decades, Ukraine has experienced five genuine changes of power, whereas Russia has seen none." for a people who have regularly seen changes in government, and experienced two revolutions (Orange and Maidan) since independence only 30 years ago, Russian attitudes towards their government must be near infantile. Also, the article has a interview with Alexander Borodai, who was appointed PM of the DPR in 2014 (after helping to annex Crimea), despite not being from Ukraine, says this: just absolutely dripping antisemitism.

On one hand, I think I see what your asking, who are the people most strongly pushing for Ukraine aid and assistance and who is more cautious in regards to supplying Ukraine, and is a tempering voice on high level discussions on Ukraine, on the other hand, the way you are framing it, makes it seem that Ukraine aid is more of a pet project, a operation that certain sections of the government can opt out of providing support or can drag their heels if not comfortable with the state of policy on Ukraine. Which is certainly valid, but something to emphasize, the U.S government has been acting with precision and clarity on Ukraine. Whatever Biden and co's failings, they have enabled a U.S government response that is not piecemeal or unfocused, where confusion can reign and people can drag their feet. With that out of the way, let's talk about various factions in the U.S government that will influence Joe Biden who is shot caller. I have not seen anything to suggest that the one who signs off on Ukraine decisions is someone other than him so I'll stick to him being the shot caller. We know that there are cautious/pro-peace/timid factions in the White House, I believe National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is part of and the most prominent member considered timid on Ukraine. We know there are more pro-Ukraine individuals pushing for more aid to Ukraine, my impression is the Joint Chiefs and more broadly, the U.S military is most in favor of this. Something else to bring up, Ukraine has done amazing in ensuring U.S strategy is what it is. Had Ukraine been less able to defend it's territory, or manage worldwide perception of Ukraine's struggle, you would see more cracks in the U.S response, that you do not, is a testament to the Ukrainian resolve and intelligence on fighting this war. Another thing to look at, is Russia's current outlook and strategy for fighting this conflict has essentially shut down more timid policy influencers and has strengthen U.S clarity of response. By continuing maximalist goals in Ukraine with seemingly no attempt at creating doubt at Russian goals and strategy in Ukraine, they have stopped making cracks in the U.S response. Russia has not given any meat to more cautious people in the U.S to say, "Russia is backing down, let's give our own backing down responses to hopefully facilitate mutual de-escalation." Things like advancing towards a annexation of Ukrainian territory are maximalist goals that make it impossible basically for the U.S to initiate de-escalation.

October 2021, the U.S knew that Russia was going to conduct a full scale invasion with multiple axis of attack with the intent to annex most or all of Ukraine. The U.S did not provide Ukraine with tactical information or much detailed information, largely after the invasion began, and only some information about a week before it started, due to worry about a leaky Ukrainian government. November 2021, French and German intelligence failed to predict the full scale invasion (do you suppose France or Germany will try and fix their failings?) Only the Baltics, and the UK were fully onboard with expecting the invasion. After Iraq and Afghanistan, not much faith in US intel. Only the Baltics and UK agreed with the assessment of full scale invasion, with France and Germany considering it diplomatic maneuvering, and other Central and EE states thinking limited invasion of Donbas. Diplomatic offers did include serious attempts at allaying Russian security fears, not withdrawal to 1997 NATO borders, but things like informing Moscow of NATO weapon and troop deployments in EE, and other mutual de-escalation methods. These were rejected out of hand. January 2022, the U.S warned Ukraine of risks to Zelensky, and provided the intel for the lightning attack on Kiev. The U.S saw that Russia was not preparing troops for war, neither planning nor psychologically ensuring they would be ready for war. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/

Uh….Russians better hope it was a OSHA violation that caused this. Other posters are stating explosion in Dzhankoi, google shows a helicopter base there, it’s near Azovske, so who knows if separate or confusion about what got hit. Its one thing for one special ops operation to be carried off successfully, but two now? I wonder how the Crimeans feel now. I wonder how much the difference between Crimea and the puppet republics are controlled and run, allows Ukraine to manage these attacks with deep or inserted personnel? Since Crimea is considered part of Russia, are there checks on the passage of people thru it’s borders?

This was vehicle #2 out of #3.

three mines, there were 2 wrecks.

I doubt its anything that would accommodate Ukraine's demands, probably a attempt at forcing the West to reign in Ukraine and Zelensky from maximalist aims.

A soldier present and took part in war crimes at Bucha confesses to it to Russian opposition news, apparently to try and save what remains of his unit from being sent back to the frontline. There is both a article and YouTube video but I speak no Russian so I can't say if the tweet below is correct.

Maybe....but so far U.S support to Ukraine remains constant. Gas prices are down, bipartisan agreement on Ukraine remains, I'm actually more worried about big price tags for further assistance to Ukraine causing dents in support, in that case, the less noise about Ukraine, the easier for money for Ukraine can pass.

Mind you, there's probably tons of Russian agents in Ukraine for the same reason as Ukrainians in Russia.

I'm sure if its fake, Igor will be quick to say so on his social media.

Some M113s from the U.S are now in Ukraine according to oryx.

I know nothing of internal German politics, but if the most pro-Ukraine party is doing well and Scholz's SPD is doing worse, I think we can say the German people aren't eager to abandon Ukraine.

It was three separate explosions no? One at 15:00 ish, then two at the same time at 16:00 ish. I wish I could find the video/tweet, it was a camera at a grocery store. Missile to distract? Then two explosions at the ammo dumps? Or timed stuff on the aircraft?

Can’t the leadership of the republics just flee to Russia? Also, I highly doubt much of the leadership of the republics won’t just be tried and imprisoned if they get captured by Ukraine, I can’t see them making a deal as a result. How much leeway can Ukraine give that won’t outrage the rest of the country? How independent can they be from Moscow? Didn’t Putin purge most of the troublesome ones anyway? The republics were always on paths to annexation into Russia, PR wise regardless of actual steps in the process, a situation where Ukraine is advancing, it probably wouldn’t want to make a deal anyway, a situation where the republics see the writing on the wall, how reliably can the leadership of the republics control their own troops? Don’t we have reports where the DNR and LPR forces are used first, including poorly trained units? Of course, it could be simply that the Russian infantry are just not viable, but it could mean effective Russian control over units of the republics.

I recall a speech by Putin preinvasion where if I was reading a correct analysis of it, Russians who live in the west and adopt anti-Russian positions are traitors, but as long as your mentally for Russia and against the west, your fine, feel free to live there, stash your riches, enjoy the beaches. Couple that and the fact every single Russian elite and aspiring seems to have a house or more in Europe, and the bank accounts to go with it....and how much they are complaining about being banned....I feel like paying some minor fee won't have much a effect or deterence at all on visitors. I know nothing but if I were Russian, I would probably feel pretty safe in Russia largely, without much or any worry of invasion or war actually approaching my home or family. I dare say the environment in the puppet regimes, the programming has been intense as any in Russia? Sure if I'm Russian, maybe I'm shocked at the images from Crimea, but that's not my house getting bombed anytime soon. If I'm a citizen of the republics, I assume the programming is largely the same, Russian victory was guaranteed? Ukraine would fall, fascism destroyed, the republics entering a golden age, etc? Crimea, that must be some hard whiplash, not withstanding the himar effect all over the capitals and some impending effect of war spreading to engulf civilians in the republics much like that in the recently occupied zones. Russia looks pretty dead on bottom up resistance to war. Any chance the republics civilians can muster some sort of protests, civil unrest to bring peace? Negotiations? Is that even possible?

Others and myself have stated this, but I must say it again, your contributions are so useful to us all. Thanks for taking the time to translate and bring insights to everyone.