billbindc

This feels right to me. It conforms with what seems to be happening in Xi's China at a slower pace but as Russia is in a nose to nose Darwinian struggle to remain competitive (it thinks in global terms but realistically more as a local spoiler) it is lunging backwards to the older silovik elite's half remembered Soviet bet on war economy productivity. In that light, putting in a grey economist to run the MoD makes perfect sense. 
 

This feels right to me. It conforms with what seems to be happening in Xi's China at a slower pace but as Russia is in a nose to nose Darwinian struggle to remain competitive (it thinks in global terms but realistically more as a local spoiler) it is lunging backwards to the older silovik elite's half remembered Soviet bet on war economy productivity. In that light, putting in a grey economist to run the MoD makes perfect sense. 
 

This feels right to me. It conforms with what seems to be happening in Xi's China at a slower pace but as Russia is in a nose to nose Darwinian struggle to remain competitive (it thinks in global terms but realistically more as a local spoiler) it is lunging backwards to the older silovik elite's half remembered Soviet bet on war economy productivity. In that light, putting in a grey economist to run the MoD makes perfect sense. 
 

This feels right to me. It conforms with what seems to be happening in Xi's China at a slower pace but as Russia is in a nose to nose Darwinian struggle to remain competitive (it thinks in global terms but realistically more as a local spoiler) it is lunging backwards to the older silovik elite's half remembered Soviet bet on war economy productivity. In that light, putting in a grey economist to run the MoD makes perfect sense. 
 

Similarities to the sidelining of Sergei Ivanov in 2016 seem to be happening today in Moscow. Worth noting that the direction of Russian policy didn't change appreciably but instead Putin curtailed the status of potential competitors:  
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/20/world/asia/myanmar-civil-war.html
It will be weeks before the meaning of all of this will become clear but I'd say watch what happens with Patrushev's sons, watch Diumin, watch if there are any changes made in leadership at the Rosgvardia. And whatever you do, don't spend a second on what office Patrushev is offered when all is said and done. He's unlikely in any case to have the influence he exerted up until today unless he overtly or covertly usurps Putin.
 

Similarities to the sidelining of Sergei Ivanov in 2016 seem to be happening today in Moscow. Worth noting that the direction of Russian policy didn't change appreciably but instead Putin curtailed the status of potential competitors:  
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/20/world/asia/myanmar-civil-war.html
It will be weeks before the meaning of all of this will become clear but I'd say watch what happens with Patrushev's sons, watch Diumin, watch if there are any changes made in leadership at the Rosgvardia. And whatever you do, don't spend a second on what office Patrushev is offered when all is said and done. He's unlikely in any case to have the influence he exerted up until today unless he overtly or covertly usurps Putin.
 

My anecdotal experience with The Kids™ is actually quite different. Without any education in nukes/deterrence, they tend to assume the most hysterical posture when someone like Putin flexes his ICBMs. I get it. It takes some getting used to when someone keeps talking about putting a gun to your head but the understanding of these things is woefully inadequate. And by The Kids™, I should be clear that pretty much covers everyone under 40...to include a whole lot of journalists in this neck of the woods. 

Three things it is important not to underestimate: 
1. Trump's essential physical cowardice. 
2. Trump's affinity for dictators. 
3. The chaos a Trump victory will create in the effective use of American power.

My anecdotal experience with The Kids™ is actually quite different. Without any education in nukes/deterrence, they tend to assume the most hysterical posture when someone like Putin flexes his ICBMs. I get it. It takes some getting used to when someone keeps talking about putting a gun to your head but the understanding of these things is woefully inadequate. And by The Kids™, I should be clear that pretty much covers everyone under 40...to include a whole lot of journalists in this neck of the woods. 

Ok...I gotta dozen Krispy Kreme jelly donuts for a stake. 
How many dollars you want to bet?

My anecdotal experience with The Kids™ is actually quite different. Without any education in nukes/deterrence, they tend to assume the most hysterical posture when someone like Putin flexes his ICBMs. I get it. It takes some getting used to when someone keeps talking about putting a gun to your head but the understanding of these things is woefully inadequate. And by The Kids™, I should be clear that pretty much covers everyone under 40...to include a whole lot of journalists in this neck of the woods. 

Ok...I gotta dozen Krispy Kreme jelly donuts for a stake. 
How many dollars you want to bet?

Three things it is important not to underestimate: 
1. Trump's essential physical cowardice. 
2. Trump's affinity for dictators. 
3. The chaos a Trump victory will create in the effective use of American power.

My anecdotal experience with The Kids™ is actually quite different. Without any education in nukes/deterrence, they tend to assume the most hysterical posture when someone like Putin flexes his ICBMs. I get it. It takes some getting used to when someone keeps talking about putting a gun to your head but the understanding of these things is woefully inadequate. And by The Kids™, I should be clear that pretty much covers everyone under 40...to include a whole lot of journalists in this neck of the woods. 

My anecdotal experience with The Kids™ is actually quite different. Without any education in nukes/deterrence, they tend to assume the most hysterical posture when someone like Putin flexes his ICBMs. I get it. It takes some getting used to when someone keeps talking about putting a gun to your head but the understanding of these things is woefully inadequate. And by The Kids™, I should be clear that pretty much covers everyone under 40...to include a whole lot of journalists in this neck of the woods. 

Ok...I gotta dozen Krispy Kreme jelly donuts for a stake. 
How many dollars you want to bet?

Whatever reasons the Russians give are as a rule bogus. But there was some panic in the Kremlin and Western intelligence and diplomatic sources picked it up. 

Whatever reasons the Russians give are as a rule bogus. But there was some panic in the Kremlin and Western intelligence and diplomatic sources picked it up. 

The was a moment there in 2022 when the possibility came closer than usual but I'd argue still not very close. This is much less significant.

The was a moment there in 2022 when the possibility came closer than usual but I'd argue still not very close. This is much less significant.

The was a moment there in 2022 when the possibility came closer than usual but I'd argue still not very close. This is much less significant.

Worthwhile: 
 
 

An interesting analysis of Russian fighting age demographics: 
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/2022/02/26/the-stats-guy-what-the-numbers-are-telling-us-about-putins-russia

An interesting analysis of Russian fighting age demographics: 
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/2022/02/26/the-stats-guy-what-the-numbers-are-telling-us-about-putins-russia

An interesting analysis of Russian fighting age demographics: 
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/2022/02/26/the-stats-guy-what-the-numbers-are-telling-us-about-putins-russia