NamEndedAllen

Yes, exactly so. You ID’d yourself at SimHQ. As originally mentioned, have been there since before Thomas Edison. Or thereabouts. Had to re-register at some point when my computer at the time dissolved into scrap or something else caused my original one to disappear. As Discord has flourished, SimHQ has gotten a bit threadbare. But Discord’s privacy policy is so terrifyingly in your face bad I’ll stick with SimHQ. And continue to read your reports.

Yes! Delphi!! It was terrific. And then blew up and burned down. Frugal’s was the refuge as an up and coming location for some of the survivors. Now I see your sim racing posts, and enjoyed reading about your getting acquainted with a number of those sims I also use. But am far too slow in them for competition purposes.

indeed. And then a huge amount of people, would be a lot happier!

Don’t worry, be happy” Honestly, I think you are missing the point. Which isn’t about cheerleading. Or about in looking at the future, necessarily predicting one outcome. My point all along is simply not to *assume* what you hope will happen, but to be aware that regardless in what country, the wonderful world of politics can and will surprise you. The topic is important because of the masssive support the USA provides Ukraine. And that Putin is quite aware of it. Period! ‘

You should always be prepared to be shocked. The voters are not the deciders once the election over. Congressional Republicans most likely will be. Factually speaking, they quite often vote against policies both the majority of Americans and of their own constituencies support. Both parties agree *now* on Ukrainian support. What comes after is often quite different. Taxes! Foreign aid! Tucker Carlson/FOX - Russia is GOOD. Putin is misunderstood. Trump remains an overpowering voice for Republican *elected* persons. And he is no friend of Ukraine. Unchanged iron clad continued support is certainly *one* scenario. Another reasonable scenario is that the absolutely predictable increase in slowing down or attempted ending of all Administration legislative initiatives by a Republican House will be a *decrease* in aid to Ukraine and a slowing of its delivery. An end to all aid is a highly unlikely scenario. At least through 2024. Again, the future is not written. But we ought not to assume too much in these volatile and bitter times. Especially given the worldwide upsurge in right wing political success, and at least in the USA its accompanying embrace of “America First” and isolationism.

And that’s the military aid. Billions in financial aid and other support has also been forthcoming. https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/aug-08-2022-united-states-contributes-45-billion-support-government-ukraine https://marketrealist.com/p/how-much-money-has-the-us-sent-to-ukrainie/ https://ua.usembassy.gov/fact-sheet-u-s-assistance-ukraine/

You make a good point about increasing pressure on bringing about an end to the conflict. And by a Party far too enamored with Putin, Russia and toying with autocratic notions. However it would be mistaken to suggest that the question of support for Ukraine has an either/or answer. Far more likely will be BOTH that pressure *and* longer delays and a decrease in spending as sparring over just what gets included in the maddeningly frequent and persistent “stop gap” funding to keep the USA government functioning for the next few months. Over and over again. I do not mean to get mired down in USA politics! Rather, to emphasize that Putin very likely sees attacking USA politics and governance abilities as one of the few high return offensive options left.

Politics = “Strange Bedfellows”

Those are good points. However the rub is that after the voting, it is Congress and not voters that make the decisions, whether funding or other policy matters. This is not a partisan comment, but as Steve mentioned earlier, purely procedural. The Republicans in office have fairly consistently opposed policies that the majority of Americans favor. This includes bizarrely enough even matters involving gun controls and abortion. Both quite hot button issues. I point this out only to underscore that financial support for Ukraine is not guaranteed in a Republican House (the House is where spending bills begin). The likelihood is that efforts to cut taxes and domestic and foreign aid spending will occupy the House. Ukraine aid could suffer as a result as divided government grinds most legislation to a halt. And all bets are off after 2024. None of this is to say it WILL happen this way! Only that the scenario has a significant probability. Other events can and will affect future decisions, whether on the battlefield in Ukraine, the USA and European economies, or unforeseen other events. Nonetheless, in my opinion, Putin sees the American political landscape proven vulnerable to outside manipulation. And that it represents a decent Hail Mary play for his prospects, even survival.

Putin and his inner circle are acutely aware of the implications of American politics for his prospects for prevailing in this war against democracies. And the seeds he planted in the 2016 elections are blooming in a large number of the candidates in next month’s USA midterm elections. Adding the shaky economy strengthens their chances. American economic woes are historically a strong indicator for removing the Party in power. While Russia tries to determine how to attack Ukraine’s will to fight - its center of gravity? - arguably Ukraine’s center of gravity for international support is the USA’s military assistance and sanctions’ enforcement. We’ve seen Russia’s well-documented and relentless attacks on the USA through every non-combat means available since at least the 2016 Presidential campaign. Undermining the USA’s faith in its own governance, in its democracy, and its internal cohesion as a means to weaken USA foreign policies - especially towards Russia. Republicans are quite likely to control both houses of Congress and the Presidency. They already have a significant majority on the Supreme Court. Polls in 2021 and 2022 consistently show that Republicans view Russian President Putin more favorably than the President of the USA. Let that sink in. Have we ever seen that before? Ever?

Summation of recent Russian terror attacks on civilian sector of Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63297239

You did! At least that was my recollection from not too long ago. I’ve been a member there since Thomas Edison founded it, before the Clone Wars. Also from Frugal’s back when Marconi gave him the coding to launch it. You posted some good CM AARs in response to someone gabbling about campaigns. I though that was an interesting overlap, having thought I was largely a loner in that Venn Diagram. Trying to remember the forum that we early Australopithecans fled, joining the early, junior at the time Frugal’s. It exp,oded in flames and died.The name was of a computer manufacturer or internet service iirc. Probably a huge sub of an overall set of interest/hobby forums.I never posted there or at Frugal’s until later years as it was obvious that The Stark Fist of Internet Horror would punch your house into the ground if you poked your head up.

Good catch! I forgot to use the label, “Puppet Master”.

These make a lot of sense. BTW, you remind me of DBond at SimHQ.

From the article. This seems about right. No matter who next occupies the Russian hot seat, it's a pretty safe bet: “What I think happens next,” he added, “is probably a time of troubles.” - Laurie Bristow, a former British ambassador to Russia.

Good call on “Command Ops”. I think you have a strong chance of enjoying it, but yeah - tutorials. Like any sim worth its salt there is a fair curve to climb. That price is pretty fair also.

Musk has consistently failed to mention these figures -EIGHTY-FIVE PERCENT - that USA and others have been subsidizing “his” costs. As posted a few pages back. He is among the least trustworthy communicators but has a very loud voice.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-will-keep-funding-ukraine-even-though-starlink-is-losing-money-2022-10-15/ Musk tweeted: "the hell with it … even though starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we'll just keep funding ukraine govt for free".

Any progress to report on further scenarios?

Agree completely. Excellent sim game. But it is a lot to wrap one’s head around if time is limited. The new edition is near release and looking like a significant leap forward.

Except the actual story linked says: “Though Musk has received widespread acclaim and thanks for responding to requests for Starlink service to Ukraine right as the war was starting, in reality, the vast majority of the 20,000 terminals have received full or partial funding from outside sources, including the US government, the UK and Poland, according to the SpaceX letter to the Pentagon. SpaceX’s request that the US military foot the bill has rankled top brass at the Pentagon, with one senior defense official telling CNN that SpaceX has “the gall to look like heroes” while having others pay so much and now presenting them with a bill for tens of millions per month. According to the SpaceX figures shared with the Pentagon, about 85% of the 20,000 terminals in Ukraine were paid – or partially paid – for by countries like the US and Poland or other entities. Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity, which SpaceX says costs $4,500 each month per unit for the most advanced service.” https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html

Recidivism in Norway is very low. Especially when compared to rates in certain other Western nations.

You know programming excellent pathfinding is a nontrivial simulation challenge. The Player wants to get both safely and efficiently from Point A to his goal, wherever that might be. But quite often in simulations and gaming much can go awry. At each waypoint, you can suddenly find yourself heading out of cover, into terrible terrain, or taking an impossibly long path that renders the goal moot. And with several waypoints set, the possibilities for bad outcomes increases as the waypoints go by. And that’s not to mention the abrupt fail even if things go as planned at this or the next waypoint. The opponents may have foreseen your moves, or made their own moves that radically chsnge the battlefield - and you need to change your goal. Or maybe are now a smoking wreck. This is how I think of the predictions about what will happen in Russia in the months and years to come. Each assumption is a waypoint in that game. And each prediction’s goal has too many waypoints along the way. Lots of chances for each underlying waypoint assumption not to turn out as needed for reaching the predicted outcome. Shakier and shakier branches! Many a slip ‘twixt lip and cup! The value lies in identifying many scenarios rather than hanging on to a single point prediction of the future. Consider even the outlandish ones, and work out the most critical factors that could affect these scenarios. What are the most powerful variables most affect those factors? And then watch everywhere, in nooks and crannies for indicators of which way the winds are blowing. I think Steve follows this sort of map when he speaks about “reading the tea leaves”.

Strongly agree - we don’t need to put an ALL CAPS warning label on every link in order to protect every sub set of members here! If an article is good enough to link, that should be all that is needed.

I look forward to hearing their testimony at what will be the new Nuremberg Trials for the 21st Century.