NamEndedAllen

Politics = “Strange Bedfellows”

Those are good points. However the rub is that after the voting, it is Congress and not voters that make the decisions, whether funding or other policy matters. This is not a partisan comment, but as Steve mentioned earlier, purely procedural. The Republicans in office have fairly consistently opposed policies that the majority of Americans favor. This includes bizarrely enough even matters involving gun controls and abortion. Both quite hot button issues. I point this out only to underscore that financial support for Ukraine is not guaranteed in a Republican House (the House is where spending bills begin). The likelihood is that efforts to cut taxes and domestic and foreign aid spending will occupy the House. Ukraine aid could suffer as a result as divided government grinds most legislation to a halt. And all bets are off after 2024. None of this is to say it WILL happen this way! Only that the scenario has a significant probability. Other events can and will affect future decisions, whether on the battlefield in Ukraine, the USA and European economies, or unforeseen other events. Nonetheless, in my opinion, Putin sees the American political landscape proven vulnerable to outside manipulation. And that it represents a decent Hail Mary play for his prospects, even survival.

Putin and his inner circle are acutely aware of the implications of American politics for his prospects for prevailing in this war against democracies. And the seeds he planted in the 2016 elections are blooming in a large number of the candidates in next month’s USA midterm elections. Adding the shaky economy strengthens their chances. American economic woes are historically a strong indicator for removing the Party in power. While Russia tries to determine how to attack Ukraine’s will to fight - its center of gravity? - arguably Ukraine’s center of gravity for international support is the USA’s military assistance and sanctions’ enforcement. We’ve seen Russia’s well-documented and relentless attacks on the USA through every non-combat means available since at least the 2016 Presidential campaign. Undermining the USA’s faith in its own governance, in its democracy, and its internal cohesion as a means to weaken USA foreign policies - especially towards Russia. Republicans are quite likely to control both houses of Congress and the Presidency. They already have a significant majority on the Supreme Court. Polls in 2021 and 2022 consistently show that Republicans view Russian President Putin more favorably than the President of the USA. Let that sink in. Have we ever seen that before? Ever?

Summation of recent Russian terror attacks on civilian sector of Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63297239

You did! At least that was my recollection from not too long ago. I’ve been a member there since Thomas Edison founded it, before the Clone Wars. Also from Frugal’s back when Marconi gave him the coding to launch it. You posted some good CM AARs in response to someone gabbling about campaigns. I though that was an interesting overlap, having thought I was largely a loner in that Venn Diagram. Trying to remember the forum that we early Australopithecans fled, joining the early, junior at the time Frugal’s. It exp,oded in flames and died.The name was of a computer manufacturer or internet service iirc. Probably a huge sub of an overall set of interest/hobby forums.I never posted there or at Frugal’s until later years as it was obvious that The Stark Fist of Internet Horror would punch your house into the ground if you poked your head up.

Good catch! I forgot to use the label, “Puppet Master”.

These make a lot of sense. BTW, you remind me of DBond at SimHQ.

From the article. This seems about right. No matter who next occupies the Russian hot seat, it's a pretty safe bet: “What I think happens next,” he added, “is probably a time of troubles.” - Laurie Bristow, a former British ambassador to Russia.

Good call on “Command Ops”. I think you have a strong chance of enjoying it, but yeah - tutorials. Like any sim worth its salt there is a fair curve to climb. That price is pretty fair also.

Musk has consistently failed to mention these figures -EIGHTY-FIVE PERCENT - that USA and others have been subsidizing “his” costs. As posted a few pages back. He is among the least trustworthy communicators but has a very loud voice.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-will-keep-funding-ukraine-even-though-starlink-is-losing-money-2022-10-15/ Musk tweeted: "the hell with it … even though starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we'll just keep funding ukraine govt for free".

Any progress to report on further scenarios?

Agree completely. Excellent sim game. But it is a lot to wrap one’s head around if time is limited. The new edition is near release and looking like a significant leap forward.

Except the actual story linked says: “Though Musk has received widespread acclaim and thanks for responding to requests for Starlink service to Ukraine right as the war was starting, in reality, the vast majority of the 20,000 terminals have received full or partial funding from outside sources, including the US government, the UK and Poland, according to the SpaceX letter to the Pentagon. SpaceX’s request that the US military foot the bill has rankled top brass at the Pentagon, with one senior defense official telling CNN that SpaceX has “the gall to look like heroes” while having others pay so much and now presenting them with a bill for tens of millions per month. According to the SpaceX figures shared with the Pentagon, about 85% of the 20,000 terminals in Ukraine were paid – or partially paid – for by countries like the US and Poland or other entities. Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity, which SpaceX says costs $4,500 each month per unit for the most advanced service.” https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html

Recidivism in Norway is very low. Especially when compared to rates in certain other Western nations.

You know programming excellent pathfinding is a nontrivial simulation challenge. The Player wants to get both safely and efficiently from Point A to his goal, wherever that might be. But quite often in simulations and gaming much can go awry. At each waypoint, you can suddenly find yourself heading out of cover, into terrible terrain, or taking an impossibly long path that renders the goal moot. And with several waypoints set, the possibilities for bad outcomes increases as the waypoints go by. And that’s not to mention the abrupt fail even if things go as planned at this or the next waypoint. The opponents may have foreseen your moves, or made their own moves that radically chsnge the battlefield - and you need to change your goal. Or maybe are now a smoking wreck. This is how I think of the predictions about what will happen in Russia in the months and years to come. Each assumption is a waypoint in that game. And each prediction’s goal has too many waypoints along the way. Lots of chances for each underlying waypoint assumption not to turn out as needed for reaching the predicted outcome. Shakier and shakier branches! Many a slip ‘twixt lip and cup! The value lies in identifying many scenarios rather than hanging on to a single point prediction of the future. Consider even the outlandish ones, and work out the most critical factors that could affect these scenarios. What are the most powerful variables most affect those factors? And then watch everywhere, in nooks and crannies for indicators of which way the winds are blowing. I think Steve follows this sort of map when he speaks about “reading the tea leaves”.

Strongly agree - we don’t need to put an ALL CAPS warning label on every link in order to protect every sub set of members here! If an article is good enough to link, that should be all that is needed.

I look forward to hearing their testimony at what will be the new Nuremberg Trials for the 21st Century.

Thanks so much for linking this, Oh Grand Dan Of California! Some pithy portraits of the state of affairs and the consequences in the West: “I think that we Europeans are facing a situation in which we suffer the consequences of a process that has been lasting for years in which we have decoupled the sources of our prosperity from the sources of our security.” AND THIS: “You - the United States - take care of our security. You - China and Russia – provided the basis of our prosperity. This is a world that is no longer there. “ THE UNCERTAINTY AND FULCRUMS FOR RUSSIA: “Inside our countries, there is a radical shift, and the radical right is increasing in our democracies, democratically – it is the choice of the people, it is not an imposition from any power. It is the people who go and vote here and there. I am not going to blame anyone, but you have in mind what I am talking about. The radical right is increasing their grasp in European politics.” “our cooperation with the United States and my friend Tony [Anthony] Blinken [US Secretary of State]: we are in a fantastic relationship and cooperating a lot; who knows what will happen two years from now, or even in November? What would have happened if, instead of [Joe] Biden, it would have been [Donald] Trump or someone like him in the White House? What would have been the answer of the United States to the war in Ukraine? What would have been our answer in a different situation? ” BIG PICTURE HEARTS AND MINDS FINALE: “authoritarianism is, unhappily, developing a lot. Not just China, not just Russia. There is an authoritarian trend. Sometimes, they are still wearing the democracy suit, but they are no longer democracies. There are some who are not democracies at all – they do not even take the pity to look like democracies.” “This is a battle that we are not winning because we are not fighting enough. We do not understand that it is a fight. Apart from conquering a space, you have to conquer the minds. The Russians and the Chinese are very good in that. They are industrialising, they have [troll] farms systematically repeating, reaching everybody in the world - once and again, once and again. We do not have a Russia Today or a Sputnik, not even Radio Liberty. But I think that all of you have to do much more on communication.”

Yes- this war has demonstrated how much vaster than anticipated the requirements for artillery rates in particular, and other munitions as well. Perun had a typically in depth video last week that worked through this issue while analyzing Ukraine’s vision for its announced 2023 military requirements. Your point was underscored. He did point out that voters in democracies understandably have not been enthusiastic to increase spending for storing vast quantity of munitions around the world - that may never be needed. The rub is when they are needed! The war also has made glaringly evident the need for well-trained infantry.

And Russia will be joining the company of groups like ‘“Lord’s Resistance Army” and Boko Haram unless it manages some sort of the most successful humble groveling and reform ever witnessed in the history of mammals on Earth. The scenario of a replacement autocrat who is just Putin and the rest but somewhat less warring has been suggested as the best we can really hope for in terms of stability. The crimes against humanity would still be hanging around his and Russia’s neck. I doubt they would graciously embrace it and make humble amends. Nor would Ukraine and it’s close neighbors find any solace or trust in such a “ next dictator up” bench move. Internally? Lots and lots of speculation here and around the world, from breakaway warlordism to utter collapse into complete chaos. And everything in between. We can speculate, but man oh man, this next year is going to be a doozy. Followed by what promises to be the even more bizarre 2024!

And now there is no good way out. Even withdrawing entirely from Ukraine will not erase the massive crimes against humanity we see committed by Russia. Nor will it in any way make Putin’s Russian political life suddenly fantastic. Nor will all the sanctions disappear over night. Nor will it resolve the demands for reparations for the immense destruction wrought in Ukraine. Nor will it instantaneously end the constant over the top domestic media bloodthirsty hype for smashing the so-called “ungrateful little brothers in Russia’s own Ukraine.”

Yes! Plus we always need to keep in mind that Musk is a person with an autism disorder. While high functioning his condition is prone to all sorts of social problems in communication and understanding others. And he is a billionaire. This is somewhat akin in the financial and increasingly in the political world, to the threat of unstable autocrats with nuclear weapons. https://www.newsweek.com/asperger-syndrome-elon-musk-autism-spectrum-disorder-1590043

Good points. I am still seeing the recent Russian overt and covert aggressive actions as the mirror of Ukraine’s successful blowing past apparent Russian red lines. Like Ukraine, Putin pushing past putative red lines before they are unmistakably etched in public increases his options for future attacks. The covert cyber and other attacks on USA and European nations, the overt strikes against Kyiv and important *civilian* infrastructure, all WITHOUT quick punishing NATO responses grants him desperately needed increases in his cramped option space. The former also attempts to continue his campaign against the emotions of the West’s civilian populations and their willingness to support the war.

Agree, Steve. I still don’t see how Russia gets out of this. I read with interest and know how WE think it does (in many minds, it may no longer own the female personal pronoun ever again…no mother treats her children as we now see). I am often reminded of the important warning that, “Past results do not guarantee future returns.” After WWII, the non-Axis nations learned the true extent of the absolute horrors to which the two primary Axis subjected their POWs and others. While few foresee a ginormous WWIII and the final fate of Russia resembling the devastated landscapes of Post War Germany and Japan, both those nations have become valued important participants and Allie’s in the world’s civilized community. What I cannot foresee is how the eyes of at least 50 nations that are backing Ukraine in so many ways EXCEPT for having their own populations ravaged and in most cases their cities as well will be able to stomach the enormity of more and more mass graves, the dead children, the civilians murdered in cold blood, the attempt at genocide by seizing Ukraine’s children and murdering those who do not profess to loyalty to Russia. Much of these crimes against humanity were committed in WWII as well. But that was a different world than today. And the Allied nations are not themselves experiencing by the millions the killing and being killed, and the knowledge that they too committed crimes well beyond the rules of war. How will the instantaneous evidence in color and sound broadcast worldwide via a hugely more influential media of how Russia has raped and butchered Ukraine be emotionally overcome, without that war experience and self knowledge? The nations of Europe and America have embraced human rights and compassion far more widely and formally than before and immediately after WWII. Once the spectacle of a determined attempt at the genocide of one of the largest countries in Europe is seen in its fullness, how will the rest of the citizens not on this forum wish to co-exist with Russia? And that does not even begin to consider what may be a snarling, angry humiliated but intact Russia. In their coming internal agonies, so long as it is an intact sovereign people, will it welcome any embrace by those who have drove it down? Lastly, after WWII we had an instant NEW powerful enemy of democracy - the Soviet Union. That threat, so quickly turning into the threat of nuclear Armageddon without doubt accelerated both the formal and the informal welcome into the community of democratic nations. It unless we manage to turn China into an equally vivid nightmare of the End Of The World, Russia will not have that wind behind its back. Even so, remember too that Japan has had a very difficult time even simply saying, “I’m sorry” to Korea. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe today’s people are quickly distracted by the next iPhone, by the next scandal, by the next celebrity breakup to give a good crap about the enormity of what has happened. Maybe the insulation of the world from the reality within Ukraine will do the trick for Russia, and citizens in most nations will not really care about the future relations with Russia - as we and our circles do. As long as gas prices go back down, and fuel for heating homes and feeding industry is plentiful, let bygones be bygones. But I have a feeling Ukraine’s new voice in the world will not let that happen. They have not only suffered and endured and are overcoming. They have learned a tremendous amount in the course of this war. That includes not only fighting in combat, but for world opinion. And I do believe that voice will ensure that it has a quite large vote in Russia’s future and how the world perceives it.