NamEndedAllen

Because they do not believe he is wrong! You guys up North breathe the calm cool vapors of reason, of evidence for and against. Much like the Russian tv videos that are linked here that many in Russia do indeed believe…we here in the USA have a significant percentage of citizens who believe in alternative “ facts”. And perhaps of much more explanatory value, they limit quite severely the information sources to which they attend. Definitely not including the primary sources in print, video and internet. Mountains of independent research have supported this unfortunate tendency. And so, we have a large body of people living in a small information bubble. To be fair, we ALL do this to some extent (except those here in the greatest information aggregator on Earth, where reports are vetted and chiseled pro and con by every one and the actual experts until a redo above best provisional judgment remains - but is up for revision if facts warrant it. What a concept!

Ok two last points: 1. Of course they are far different! Fox is in the tank with Putin! Tucker Carlson on Fox is the highest rated cable news show in the USA. And absolutely adores Putin. 2. I keep reminding folks, it isn’t a question of will or won’t USA Republican Congress fund Ukraine! At least until 2024, the USA will continue military funding. The issue is HOW MUCH funding, and even more so, HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE to pass. Yes, the Fascist slanted Pro Russians in Congress are a minority. But the Republican majority hangs by a thread, so each member of a small minority wields enormous power. Because their vote is needed to pass funding bills. And as Steve has said, they will drag us through the coals using their misbegotten soapbox. While Ukrainians due defending their country.

It’s the sausage making, folks! The problem with these opinions about the USA new House of Representatives Republicans and what they will do or not do is too often missing the actual legislative process. It isn’t so much about YES OR NO, WILL REPUBLICANS SUPPORT UKRAINE FUNDING crystal ball gazing! The issue is how much the isolationist AND pro Russia/Putin elected Congress persons will slow down all funding legislation, and what special interests demands they will tack on to Ukraine funding in order to get to a floor vote. Both parties ALWAYS add in pet partisan items into must pass legislation, because, duh! Must pass. Then they haggle over what price will be paid to drop some of these, or to keep them. It gets ugly. Remember, it is the House that makes spending/Appropriation bills. The bottom line is that the establishment of increased oversight (a bipartisan move underway now, actually) along with getting *any* Appropriation legislation passed and then negotiated with the Democratic Senate is going to take more *time*. Time is the 500 ton monster in the “room”, killing Ukrainians daily, freezing them in their homes, hobbling businesses. And moving the USA closer to the 2024 Presidential election which is guaranteed to be fierce and unpredictable. Ukraine needs more military options NOW. They need an answer to Russia’s crimes against humanity missile attacks against civilians across the country. And quickly.

Unfortunately that is highly probably, almost a given. What is desperately needed is a change in focus from “only what will help me and my Party - screw the rest”, to what is going to help my country, and my Allies especially in the struggle against the worst human impulses against one another”, and ultimately, facts and reason over fantasy and ego/selfishness. Putin is a master in stoking the latter impulses in the West. It remains one of his only strategic weapons that can and is being used. In a war that has become a grind of two battered fighters striving to stay in the ring and standing up, time is increasingly critical. Neither has an unlimited amount of it.

For those keeping track of the USA government long term commitment to supplying and supporting Ukraine in similar degree as the Biden Administration, the incoming Republican House members and their newly powerful positions as Committee chairpersons keep signaling what likely Speaker of the House promised: much tougher examinations and scrutiny of Ukraine and money for weapons. While this may not turn the spigot off, make no mistake that their loud parallels to Russian propaganda to undermine USA public support will shift public opinion. It will be tied to loud indictments about the USA economy, inflation and inevitably as announced already, Hunter Biden. We do not yet know how much this may slow or reduce support, but the 2024 election cycle is obviously in their sights. House Republicans, who will hold a slim majority in the next Congress, have warned the Biden administration to expect far tougher oversight of the extensive military assistance provided to Ukraine in the war with Russia, The Washington Post reports. Ukraine live briefing: Republicans call for thttps://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/27/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

Taranis, thanks for the advice about militaryland.net. Those maps are excellent.

Steve, it’s good that this happened. I posted a couple links on the prelim vote back on page gazillion-fifty-eight. It was described as “a non legislative resolution”. Unlike the USA they don’t have a legal basiis for this characterization, unlike the sanctions already passed. But it certainly underscores their assessment of what Russia *is*.

I obviously chose the “wrong” side! Total Victory first try, a slaughter. Just testing for mods etc before trying the “Wiltz” scenario, in advance of the CMFB version inspired by this one. Wiltz is such a storied battle early in the Bulge, and the CMFB version looks magnificent. CMBB Iron RoadBlock Stats.pdf

And in other war crime related news of massive crimes against humanity: Ukraine's western city of Lviv is without power after a wave of Russian missiles pounded the country. Critical infrastructure in Kyiv was also targeted, and the city's officials said three people died in the attack. Across the border, Moldova also reported "massive" blackouts, although it has not been directly hit. Moscow has recently increased strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leaving half of the country's power grid in need of repair. Ukraine's national power grid operator has said the damage sustained by power generating facilities in recent weeks has been "colossal" and warned that Ukrainians could face long power outages over the winter months. Early on Wednesday, an air-raid alert was issued across Ukraine, followed by reports of explosions in a number of locations. Ukraine's air force said over 70 cruise missiles were launched by Moscow, with air defences intercepting 51 projectiles. Officials said five drones were also launched. But the attack has caused significant damage to infrastructure across the country. Ukraine's state energy company, Energoatom, said three nuclear reactors were taken offline due to the blackout. And in the capital Kyiv, parts of the city have been let without water and completely without power, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. Lviv mayor, Andriy Sadovy, said children had been taken to shelters with their teachers - and urged parents not to pick them up until the alarm was over. Shortly before the fresh reports from Kyiv and Lviv, officials said southern Ukraine had come under renewed assault. The governor of the Mykolaiv region warned of "many rockets" arriving from the south and east. In the nearby Zaporizhzhia region, a newborn baby was killed when a missile hit a maternity unit, emergency services said. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63729427

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/some-russian-commanders-knew-sexual-violence-or-encouraged-it-says-lawyer-2022-11-23/ KYIV, Nov 23 (Reuters) - There is evidence that Russian commanders in several instances were aware of sexual violence by military personnel in Ukraine “and in some cases, encouraging it or even ordering it,” according to an international criminal lawyer assisting Kyiv’s war crimes investigations. British lawyer Wayne Jordash told Reuters that in some areas around the capital of Kyiv in the north, where the probes are most advanced, some of the sexual violence involved a level of organisation by Russian armed forces that “speaks to planning on a more systematic level.” He didn’t identify specific individuals under scrutiny.

Well said. Though it is helpful to have the legal points brought up and clarified for our edification. Focusing pages of debate on one such incident in a brutal genocidal war with literally thousands of equal or in most case far worse circumstances by the invader feels as if it only furthers the propaganda/PR value for Russia. I for one do not expect Ukrainian forces to be perfect in defense of their homes and families, especially after all this time and horror. I do expect that reckonings will come AFTER the war. At least in the West, where our shared values strongly incline us to. My support for defending Ukraine against this illegal invasion is not so thin and weak as to be shaken by this.

A positive step! But not a legislative, legally binding act. See statement below: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/agenda/briefing/2022-11-21/1/meps-set-to-declare-russia-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism By declaring Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, MEPs want to prepare the ground for Putin and his government to be held accountable for these crimes before an international tribunal. The debate took place during the October plenary session. Vote: Wednesday, 23 November Procedure: Non-legislative resolution

Apoears far from an official adoption, and not a legally binding measure https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/11/15/meps-mull-declaring-russia-a-terrorist-state-over-brutal-and-inhumane-crimes-against-ukrai The European Parliament should declare Russia a terrorist state for the "intimidation and destruction of Ukrainians as a nation," according to a strongly-worded resolution being drafted by the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) and seen by Euronews. At least two other political groups, Renew Europe and the European Conservatives and Reformists, are preparing similar texts, Euronews can confirm, increasing the odds for a formal declaration to be issued by the hemicycle as early as next Wednesday. The groups plan to put their resolutions, which could be eventually merged into one, to a vote during next week's plenary, where they would necessitate a majority of MEPs to be formally adopted. Parliamentary resolutions are not legally binding but can carry a heavy symbolic weight.

Yes, good points throughout. Including: “Discussions about the desirability of Ukraine negotiating from a position of strength, while its forces are winning, are based on a mistaken premise. Ukraine has liberated nearly half the land Russia has seized since renewing its invasion in February 2022—meaning that Russia still has more than half the territory it illegally occupies. Ukraine has momentum in this conflict, but not yet the upper hand. Its negotiating position is stronger than it was when Russian forces were advancing on additional critical cities and regions, but not yet strong enough to have created good conditions from which to negotiate.” AND “Freezing the conflict where it is now invites renewed Russian invasion sooner and badly undermines Ukraine’s ability to prevail in either a renewed hot war or in the new cold war. Allowing Russia to keep some or all the areas it currently holds also condemns millions of Ukrainians to the ongoing Kremlin efforts to Russify them; to identify, torture, and kill people who still give their allegiance to Kyiv; to abduct Ukrainian children and adopt them forcibly into Russian families; and to continue the ethnic cleansing campaign Putin is pursuing to eliminate the Ukrainian national identity everywhere he can.“

Thanks! Interesting historical perspective to set the stage. Am in the midst of it now.

Absolutely. On a day when Ukrainians were being devastated by a deadly rain of terror missile attacks throughout the country - again! - ONE missile in their own defense may have gone off course while trying to stop an incoming Russian attack. And it IS a tragedy. Along with the other thousands of tragedies suffered through Ukraine on that day. Chapter 42 in the far too long book, “Why The Allies Must Decide Winning NOW Is The Way To End This War”.

Yes! Amazing perseverance- and mysterious failures by Russia to disrupt. Couple of quotes from the Times article: “In ways large and small, Ukrainian National Railways, with its 230,000 employees, has been a vital player in this war, helping to keep the nation bound together as Russia tries to tear it apart. The railway has enabled the flight of refugees and of those who are internally displaced, the movement of goods and weapons and the reunions of families.” AND: “The longest any train has been delayed is 12 hours, when, in the spring, Russia unleashed a fusillade of missiles at railroad infrastructure, taking out a key power source. Strikes on the lines themselves can often be repaired in under 30 minutes. When bridges are hit, trains can be quickly rerouted.”

WCT Tanks! I have that, and Rifles, too. As a kid though, I had only one nearby friend who also was interested in wargame board games. I had Avalon Hill’s D-Day and Tactical Ops, he had Afrika Korps. But he didn’t have the patience for the time those games took. Years passed. Decades! After years of solo computer sim and wargaming, I found TacOps. Ventured into the mailing list for it, made friends with someone who made scenarios and reviewed games, and we began PBEM exchanges. First time ever dipping a cautious toe into the wild and dangerous online gaming world everyone knew was filled with horrors! Falcon 4 quickly took over, along with OFP, ArmA, Longbow 2, etc. He went on to design scenarios used in Steel Beasts which we play periodically until this day - and eventually was hired by the Army for such matters. I still fly Falcon, DCS, IL-2 online…and weekly ArmA3 sessions with the same group of long time online friends.

Agree thoroughly. We are far far from the beginning stages of this war. All parties know a LOT more about one another, than right after the start. It’s important not to excuse the fighting spilling over into NATO nations, with no unmistakable and serious corrective response. No, of course not absurd red herrings - not declaring war, not air strikes in Russia. Those are straw men type arguments. Yes, accidents happen. But when accidents happen, blame is assessed, and penalties imposed. You are the driver, you are responsible and will be accountable for reckless driving, losing control of the vehicle, carelessness. Especially in fatal accidents. Plus, context. This is Russia trying to rain hell on civilians in their homes and workplaces. Russia has a deep responsibility to keep control over their weapons. If they fail, they need more than some harsh words. They killed Poles, in their own country. And we will never really know whether it was an accident. Some US retired military officers on the cable networks tonight have described this as deliberate, deniable, testing of NATO. So, what makes sense? I agree, no fly zones are a big escalation. NATO would have to cleanse the zone of all Russian SAM and other platforms that could bring down NATO jets - even before any potential ATA encounters. OTOH, long range missiles/artillery. Finally. Just in case of any more accidents. ATACMS. More SAM, defens systems and now. And Russia must pay the family or families who lost loved ones for their losses. Lastly, a clear message about the consequences of any more “accidents”.

SERIOUSLY doubt that speculation stated as fact. Certainly by now both his military chiefs as well as his inner circle realize the enormous disparity between NATO’s huge weapon and troop superiority. Even *without* NATO doing much more than dipping a toe in the conflict, from afar. Nonetheless, this might be a time to try to layout the big reach of the Forum’s thinking in some sort of framework. One powerful way to see which way the wind is blowing is scenario planning. I value scenario planning because it keeps four possible futures in view at all times, rather than pinning all one’s attention on one preferred (biased in some way) outcome. I hired firms to assist university and national news network in their executive/board planning work. It offers a framework for placing the blizzard of weekly events into relationships and becomes a better… TEA LEAVES READER! Scenario planning is simply telling stories about the future. Throwing out all kinds of possibilities, from mundane to outlandish. Like we have here. Ukraine takes back all its territories. Russia collapses into feuding warlord territories. Nuclear war breaks out between NATO and Russia. Or a grinding, endless stalemate develops and the Western Allies get tired of pouring money and equipment into it. Futures are stories. Choose four! And decide what the two biggest uncertainties are that could influence these to actually happen. These are Critical Uncertainties. They are divergent thinking, brainstorming, imagining. But based on solid knowledge of matters about the question at hand. Like the knowledge base of the vast experience on this forum. They become our “scenario logics”: two axes that differentiate our four stories about possible futures. For example, one axis could be direct NATO/Russian confrontation, from none to total war. The other axis could be Ukraine Winning - Losing. The Uncertainties are key, and in practice would emerge from considered discussion and debate, and then voting for the top two. The meat is the “critical indicators” for each future: *How much sophisticated military aid does Ukraine get? *Putin’s political standing. * * *USA election/political outcomes. * * * *Specific battlefield events. Lastly, watch for events - early indicators that put more or less weight on each indicator in one quadrant (future) or another. In this way, we aren’t led by the nose by each day’s news flood. A picture begins to emerge. A story unfolds in more detail A different one fades. Scenario planning serves as a framework for the plethora of events we see, including the external forces, beyond Ukraine and Russia. What to think of each one, such as China’s Xi and Biden together, warning Russia not to use nuclear weapons. Kherson surrendering. Mobilization. No ATACMS, no Western tanks, Kerch bridge. USA elections. And now, missiles killing civilians in Poland.

Thanks for that information, @kevinkin. Much appreciated. I didn’t know it was based on a Panzer Leader scenario. Regrettably, I never played it. Not knowing anything about how it would play out, I advanced cautiously, taking the hilltops in advance but finding no one home. At the outskirts I finally uncovered several guns and AFV back at the rear exit line - at center and right corner. Knocked them out. Three PzIVs and Stugs methodically hunting down the central avenue. Over on the far left, PzIVs and a Stug have knocked out several half tracks, and a foot infantry unit on the edge. The main body is just now reaching the T intersection at city front, beginning turns to the left side for less opposed exit. Lost one empty truck that was probing over on the far right in the city outskirts.

From CNN's Tim Lister Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said about 10 million Ukrainians are without electricity Tuesday night after waves of Russian missile attacks earlier in the day. In his daily video address, Zelensky said, "In many cities and regions of our country, there are again emergency power cuts. About ten million Ukrainians are without electricity. Most of all — as of this moment — in Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Kyiv and Lviv regions." Zelensky added that Lviv and some other cities suspended the supply of heating and that there also were issues with the internet and other modes of communication. Across much of Ukraine, temperatures are marginally above freezing.

That was a case of incredible precision weapons missing (or not?) a target within a small area in one city. This is in another freaking COUNTRY. After months of claiming we will defend every INCH of NATO soil. I do appreciate your reminder to stay calm and not overreact. But can we not feel the water getting warmer and warmer and warmer? Recall all the other “accidents” and denials, as well as the ongoing cyber warfare waged against all Allied nations. Even now. In my opinion, humble as it may be, there comes a time when a clear and strong reaction must be made, that even “accidents” - perhaps *even* accidents will absolutely not be tolerated.

Or deciding SOMEDAY to actually win. As in game over, Russia is defeated and gone. No more pussyfooting that “they didn’t mean it”, or “only civilians were killed”, or they might attack us with their mighty ferocious devastated military”, “or the best, “Ukraine can attack Russians with our weapons, but only in Ukraine because Russia is sacred.” We’ve had lengthy debates about nukes here, and lengthy discussions about how much Ukrainian territory is wise to regain so as not to upset the fragile Russian psyche. We’ve applauded the delivery of much Western or compatible Soviet weapon systems to keep Ukraine fighting, while lamenting the lack of war winning weapons - even those that would only be used within Ukraine; however intrinsically bizarre that rule is. Speaking of which, Russia gets to lay waste to the largest entirely European country without compunction while Ukraine is saddled with a variety of rules it must follow in order to remain in favor. And it must demonstrate that it can have some victories too. “Don’t back slide, or show lowered morale while you are being tortured and bombed into freezing rubble, and saways remember those Brit stiff upper lips in WWII - you must too! Or we might get tired of supporting you and demand appeasement of Russia.” No apologies for being blunt. This how many MONTHS of relentless war crimes, crimes against humanity,, sheer mass human suffering? And no ATACMS? No official designation of Russia as a Terrorist State? I sincerely appreciate the finely reasoned abstractions about the need for caution, carefully laid out here by our best minds. I really do. And the absolutely admirable and correct defense against demonizing all Russians, because many are not demonic and doing so lowers us to their level. But there comes a time…do you doubt it?

The massive missile attacks on civilians in Ukraine and Poland come after THIS: From CNN’s Masrur Jamaluddin in Bali, Indonesia and Xiaofei Xu President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a 10-point peace plan to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a video speech to G20 leaders in Bali on Tuesday, according to a transcript shared by the Embassy of Ukraine in Indonesia. The steps includes a path to nuclear safety, food security, a special tribunal for alleged Russian war crimes, and a final peace treaty with Moscow, according to a transcript of the speech. He also urged G20 leaders to use all their power to “make Russia abandon nuclear threats” and implement a price cap on energy imported from Moscow. Foundation for victory: In the address, Zelensky compared the recent liberation of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson to the battles leading to the Allied defeat of Germany in World War II. “It is like, for example, D-Day — the landing of the Allies in Normandy. It was not yet a final point in the fight against evil, but it already determined the entire further course of events,” Zelensky said in the address. “If the victory will be ours in any case, and we are sure of it, then shouldn't we try to implement our formula for peace to save thousands of lives and protect the world from further destabilization?” Zelensky also called on Russia to stop bombing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as winter approaches. “Let Russia prove by its rejection of terror that it is really interested in the restoration of peace,” he said. Moscow has been isolated at this year’s G20 summit as multiple Western leaders vowed not to have any contact with its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is in attendance on behalf of the Kremlin.