NamEndedAllen

I doubt China would want to have the diplomatic headache, constant distraction and sheer embarrassment of having to shield a notorious war leader wanted for high profile war crimes trial. Bad for the image, you know.

Technically, NOLA does matter. Because food, music, a big battle there although perhaps getting to be a long time ago. So it is exempt from the East (loser) v West (clearly the winner at the end of the day…ha!) debate. Now we return to our regularly scheduled program.

Will do! The sun sets properly over the ocean as it should, on the West Coast. Safely, in beauty and splendour. Clearly better than seeing it descend onto the land as a blazing ball of nuclear fire, consuming our women and children. I don’t understand how those in the East stand the daily horror.

Well I have never played CM against a human/PBEM in all these years. Used to do TacOps that way, in the previous millennium iirc. Otherwise, with those “humans”, only co-op sims and such. And my skills in CM are minuscule relative to those sims. Which are doubtless not THAT great anyway! So I lean to co- op type entertainment. But in the sort of atmosphere you describe, maybe time to try. BTW, Time zone an issue? I see you are standing in the Mother Country, and I on the far Western (better!) edge of North America.

She does display that all too uncanny quite annoying ability. She is sooo fortunate I stay with her! And yet, 32 years later, here we are. She remains One Fine Gal.

Yes it is, throughout the West and also Japan, and as was mentioned China too. It is the choice in the wealthier nations to have fewer children per family. But Russia had its guts practically torn out during WWII and they’ve never really recovered from that demographic catastrophe. Alcoholism and assorted woes have contributed in modern times to the overall ethnic Russian population becoming static, or iirc actually shrinking for the first time. This general tendency in the other economically strong nations is well recognized for many decades in Population Studies research journals. And it is an interesting but off topic struggle for nations to address falling younger demographics/working population with increased productivity per worker. But even that is creating issues; technologies replacing existing workers creates social tensions and disruptions. The world is always@ complicated place in which to make large scale decisions. My wife buts in and reminds me of decisions we, um, I made during the summer. But let’s not get into that! ;-:

Here is January’s Russian demo pyramid. It is…sick. Normal population pyramids are broad at the base and gradually shrink as the age groups age. Like a…PYRAMID shape! But look at this from a Wikipedia chart: It means BEFORE the war, Russia will soon be a nation if old and elderly people, supported poorly by a much smaller number of those who will enter working and child bearing ages. A number of nations have been experiencing a lesser version of this because wealthier nations tend to reduce the number of children per fertile woman. Japan has a really big problem but maybe not THIS bad. I have to check. It’s been a while but I used to do this stuff for various pro work. In fact the USA is the one nation apart from Euro/Russia/Japan with a better demographic pyramid, ironically because immigration has helped steady its base and deliver larger numbers to the workforce now and in coming years. However, it is still a problem, as the USA Social Security projections of number of workers to support one retiree has shrunk. But RUSSIA? A nightmare scenario of misery.

Thanks for these thoughts. Also, small point, when reading the PERUN summary, something like don’t underestimate the impact of 300,000 troops. “Troops?” Might be getting to persnickety semantic, but might the term “troops” be extremely misleading? At least as widely described, many if not all are either being thrown in practically just of the streets - or supposedly after a flawed Cliff Notes version of that was less than a CM single Tutorial. Even that 3rd AK was well equipped and had maybe the CM Training Campaign level. And has been badly ineffective. Rather than calling a mass like that now…amassing!…”troops”, aren’t they really nothing much more than the apt label, a mob with guns”? Add to that your insights about the utter failure of any degree of modern intelligence, planning and leadership. The result of the mobilization looks like the destruction of a significant percentage of the productive male demographic. In a country already challenged demographically. Can the sum total of the highest Russian authorities actually be THIS suicidal?

You teach, I learn? In CMx2 I have recently FB, CW and BS. Also BfN demo only. Perhaps better learning? Waiting for Steam release. Plus the three main CM1x.

Ignoramus #2 here. Thanks, chuckdyke.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

Isn’t it worth a toast or two to how strongly Ukraine’s military has gone from zero major offensive coordination, to THIS? The first time in strength?

You have made up for lost time, though! I however am as a lost child, walking in dark woods where all the trees suddenly look far too much the same. This way? That way? Oh…UH OH! But thank you for your kind offer. I most likely could offer you the fine feeling of major victory.

The raw, heavy, heart-breaking price of freedom that time will never erase. I am forever grateful that my precious little girl died in my arms, surrounded by love and care, not in violence and the horror of what people can and will do to one another.

Likely these and similar sites for ammo etc. are among those on the list for NATO retaliatory strikes in the event of Putin crossing THE red line. High ratio of matériel vs lives. Immediate crippling of mechanized war fighting ability.

Don Cherry! Don Cherry! Respect!! Amidst the mass of true and actual horrors of war and human capacity for evil…this nod to the opposite spirit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Cherry_(trumpeter) oh. Wait… you meant THAT Don Cherry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Cherry never mind…

Indeed! What the forum has done best all these pages. And so valuably. Predicting how this war will end, let alone what happens in Russia however it ends…pretty shaky branches.

Yes, certainly along those lines of a *conventional* body blow that we are certainly capable of delivering with truly catastrophic impact. Responding with one nuke only leads to *somebody* in the Kremlin tossing three nukes, and then and then and then. So, no. The most likely response (although WE certainly don’t know for sure!) is not recklessly tossing nukes around at a guy with thousands of them in his pocket.

And that = 0 winners. Bad game! Disheartening to see a growing tendency to embrace the Russian doctrine of winnable nuclear war. If it can reasonably be termed “winnable”. Too many players with too many very bad toys, and too many unknowns at least on the Russian side. This is why unpopular as the cautions by some here may be, the Allies have only proceeded up to the leading edge of caution. But not leaping over the edge with both feet - right into the cow plop.

Agreed! But then the question is right back to the same one of a great many pages: exactly *how*?

Who actually wins a nuclear war? I might have misunderstood but does that mean an extended exchange of nukes until Russia can’t fire more? But Europe, Britain and USA still have some (plus radioactive capitols and military industrial complexes? It really begs the question of whether we can really know that one and only nuclear weapon would be used. And sure that in the face of a significant incoming slap down whoever is actually making decisions in the Kremlin and elsewhere, a far more serious set of nuclear weapons are launched. And then we…

Thanks for the link. And a good reminder.

What the heck?? https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/politics/us-army-doctor-anesthesiologist-russian-government-medical-records/index.html CNN — A wife and husband from Maryland have been charged with conspiring to provide the Russian government with personal medical records from the US government and military, according to a newly unsealed federal indictment. Anna Gabrielian, an anesthesiologist practicing in Baltimore, along with her husband, Jamie Lee Henry, a major and doctor in the US Army, allegedly provided “individually identifiable health information,” which is protected under federal law, to an FBI undercover agent posing as a Russian government employee. Both Gabrielian and Henry were arrested Thursday morning, according to the US Attorney’s office in the District of Maryland. After appearing in court, they were released on home detention with 24/7 location monitoring. Gabrielian also has a $500,000 unsecured bond. According to the indictment, Gabrielian was contacted by the undercover agent – who claimed to be an employee of the Russian embassy – in August, after Gabrielian had reached out to the Russian embassy to offer her and her husband’s assistance to the Russian government several months earlier

“A mob with guns”.

Steve thanks for your thoughtful and in depth response. Last night I wrote back an even more in-depth response filled with insights and scholarship - brilliant, really. And when I hit “reply”, it disappeared into a crack in space. On this tablet apparently I get logged out after not too long an interval. Lesson learned. Serbia and Vietnam both interesting cases, reasonable success in forging new international relations after bitter conflicts. Both might offer ideas for how the nations who opposed them managed their relationships in the aftermath. Serbia is a good call, reasonably close to the Russia scenario of the aftermath of unoccupied bitter country after that conflict. But no one really expects a similar full on NATO bombing campaign in Russia - unless of course it crosses that one Very Big Bright Red Line. It would be useful to know how the various NATO nations managed relations with Serbia afterward. Vietnam also similar in being a country in war and invasions against its neighbors. But it was the victor, not bitterly licking its wounds after withdrawing in battlefield defeats. It decided its own future un impeded “unmanaged” - by the exhausted losers in that war. But those losers and Vietnam did develop surprisingly decent relations over time. Not a terrible outcome from Vietnam’s perspective. I don’t see an analogous template for the other Warsaw Pact/former USSR republics you mention. They were not invaders of their neighbors, and then defeated on the battlefield and withdrawing w/o surrendering. On the contrary, most seemed eager and delighted to be out from under the thumb of the Soviet Union, aiming at joining a wider brighter world. Taiwan and ROK did fight bitter wars but they were civil wars, both with outside major power involvement. But like the former Soviet republics, they were embracing the West’s opportunities not struggling against it, having lost to Western intervention. There really isn’t any close analogy for managing the shaping of a huge power like Russia. Defeated on the battlefield but not surrendering. Bitter and angry within its borders, its territory untouched by invasion. Once again seeing itself ganged up on by the West,“unfairly” denied re-acquiring its own lost territory (Russian perspective!). Just like last time but WORSE, when the USSR collapsed and it trusted the West. And it happened AGAIN! This time, with tens of thousands dead or maimed for life. I think that is the likely emotion and mindset within Russia after a Ukraine victory. Turn to the Strong Man, the “only I can fix it” savior man. This might be one of those strive for the least bad outcome crises. The idea that the world would be safer after a collapse, with several anger chaotic splinter states armed with combinations of nuclear weapons, boomer subs, chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction - all embittered against LOSING… no way! The EU, the USA, Britain would have a *lot* more to worry about than just Ukraine’s well being! The Capt’ iirc many pages ago argued eloquently and in detail not only for thoughtful caution but for a still terrible but reasonable dictator who could hold Russia together and be contained by the rest of the world. Until next time. Because you can’t alway always get what you want in a world. And I hate that.