NamEndedAllen

These attacks can also be seen as the Russian version of Ukraine’s often discussed pushing past red lines. Blowing the Nord line(s) = no big response. Now followed by a wider attack on NATO nations’ infrastructure targets. Russia doesn’t need to fear a NATO nuclear response. It can test how far it can poke which countries in the eye, before seeing a damaging conventional response. Russia knows that agreeing on triggering Article 5 would entail a great deal of political debate first. In a way, the Article 5 threat is similar to Putin’s nuclear war threat. A secondary result is the always active efforts to undermine any and all Western democracies and their citizens’ faith in their own governments. In these incidents, the fallout whatever it may be in the public’s mind comes as winter nears.

“Knock knock knocking on Heaven’s door…’ https://www.bobdylan.com/songs/knockin-heavens-door/

Cooking with gas! Gas central heating! Crank it up! Gas Turbines! We in the USA have been very good for a long time at using tons of energy without too much thought about it efficiency until recently. I think efficiency here has been improving in recent years, with a bunch of tax rebate incentives and regulatory changes. But nothing here or in most places has really changed the huge appetite of modern civilizations for stuff that requires lots of fuels.

Except when you need it (see “Florida Governor DeSantis”

Some context. The USA is already the largest oil producer in the world. Even with compromises to avoid the worst damages that occur. And we cannot keep up with the demand from other countries besides our own. This does not include or reference NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION. USA also Numero Uno. See at bottom. Using up even more of what USA has remaining in the ground plays into OPEC (and Russia?) hands. In grander strategy, USA needs to find multi pronged means to address demand. While still able to be largest energy producer. Top 10 Oil-Producing Countries (barrels per day): Country Monthly Production Reference Month United States 11,567,000 12/2021 Russia 10,503,000 11/2021 Saudi Arabia 10,225,000 02/2022 Canada 4,656,000 11/2021 Iraq 4,260,000 02/2022 China 3,969,000 11/2021 United Arab Emirates 2,954,000 02/2022 Brazil 2,852,000 11/2021 Kuwait 2,610,000 02/2022 Iran 2,546,000 02/2022 Top 10 Countries that Produce the Most Natural Gas (Cubic Meters, 2020): United States — 914.6 billion Russia — 638.5 billion Iran — 250.8 billion China — 194 billion Qatar — 171.3 billion Canada — 165.2 billion Australia — 142.5 billion Saudi Arabia — 112.1 billion Norway — 111.5 billion Algeria — 81.5 billion Top 10 Countries that Consume the Most Natural Gas (Cubic Meters, 2020): United States — 832 billion Russia — 411.1 billion China — 330.6 billion Iran — 233.1 billion Canada — 112.6 billion Saudi Arabia — 112.1 billion Japan — 104.4 billion Germany — 86.5 billion Mexico — 86.3 billion

Terrible thing to even think to suggest, but maybe possibly we back in the cheap seats might have to actually suffer a bit too. And pay higher prices. War is expensive in many ways. Ukraine is paying in lives and entire cities.

Snyder is a smart guy. And this is certainly a well written projection combining several of the many scenarios explored in these 1,500+ pages. But he makes a ton of assumptions, “if this, then that…and if that, then this other, and if that other, then this…” becomes a gradual relatively smooth winding up of the war. Nice! But nations’ crises also result in sudden, abrupt radical change. In evolution this is called “punctuated equilibrium.” In the moment of the crisis, it is certainly difficult to foresee the ultimate outcome.

This is certainly a more desirable outcome than…nukes. And it is the storyline we tell a lot when needing to replace the previous one, that Putin is too rational to risk blowing up various levels of his own country’s future and the world’s as well. It’s what we think we would do if we ourselves had the choice at the critical moment, in our own Western countries. But it relies entirely on hope as a war strategy. Here in the peanut gallery, we don’t have perfect knowledge of the protections and mindsets involved in protecting Putin. The former KGB guy. In the Cuban Missile Crisis, we now know that just one rational and determined man stopped the besieged depth charged Fox Trot’s Captain from launching his “special weapon” nuclear war head torpedo at the USN, as per his orders. Another ranking officer in the three sub flotilla was also aboard and blocked the captain’s given order at the critical moment. Talked the rattled captain down. And WWIII was averted. One guy. Could have not been there. Boom… Question: do we know whether any of the Russian subs have nuclear-armed cruise, not ballistic missiles that could be used in lieu of a land or air launch?

Putin’s mentality increasingly resembles an eerie channeling of That Adolf. Fantasy offensives with a crumbling army, living in a bunker, genocidal slanders and oversight of many war crimes. Most deeply concerning - it’s a nuclear war bunker.

October 5th Update from ISW Key Takeaways The Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in Kharkiv Oblast has not yet culminated and is actively pushing into Luhansk Oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin took measures to assert full Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Russian forces conducted the first strike on Kyiv Oblast since June with a Shahed-136 drone. The Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced that Putin awarded him the rank of Colonel-General. Increasing domestic critiques of Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Ukrainian troops likely consolidated positions and regrouped in northern Kherson Oblast after making major gains over in the last 48 hours. Russian sources reported Ukrainian offensive preparations northwest, west, and northeast of Kherson City. Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 5. Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the implementation of the Russian “partial mobilization” on October 5. Russian citizens who are economically disadvantaged and ethnic minority Russian communities continue to bear a disproportionate burden in mobilization rates and casualty rates according to investigative reports, suggesting that Russian authorities may be deliberately placing poor and minority Russian citizens in more dangerous positions than well-off or ethnic Russians. Russian President Vladimir Putin completed the final formality in the process for illegally annexing Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories on October 5. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-5

Good point. Regarding that “warning” though, why not always appending a similar labeling for links to any conservative sites that might also have headlines with political slants. Or maybe better to simply drop the whole political labeling thing and assumptions about tender feelings among the huge population here. Because the emphasis simply underscores the politics, not the information itself.

I wouldn’t worry unless you find yourself beginning to say things at work like, “Fire for effect!”

Perhaps in politics and war not everything is always quite so simple. Trump’s signal of withdrawal and other such past precedents were certainly not universally applauded as wise strategy. But there it was, handed to an incoming President with a clock of a few months ticking away. One should never forget that management focus in any organization, large or small is a scarce resource. Among the various scenarios bandied about, a not unreasonable one is a mixture of a bad hand deprioritized and handed to the quick and dirty “it’s going to be a mess but you guys are stuck with it” C or D or worse team. Because a storm is coming, NATO is in shambles, we have a pandemic killing hundreds of thousands, and an economy that is once again teetering (except for the stock market!). The military is worn by decades in a no-win not a war again nation building futile exercise. And Europe is a greater strategic and national interest than that Graveyard of Empires. So that’s our immediate priority focus overseas. Tough decisions, never guaranteed to be right until the dust settles. Pretty clear the new USA Admin was repairing European relations and sharing intelligence well ahead of the storm of the century in Europe. And it looks as if Afghanistan was viewed as a write off - just as the in the previous Administration. It is an ugly ugly world. We end up grabbing our Bright Moments when and how we can. I must say how good and pleasant it is to see the USA unequivocally backing the good guys.

I doubt China would want to have the diplomatic headache, constant distraction and sheer embarrassment of having to shield a notorious war leader wanted for high profile war crimes trial. Bad for the image, you know.

Technically, NOLA does matter. Because food, music, a big battle there although perhaps getting to be a long time ago. So it is exempt from the East (loser) v West (clearly the winner at the end of the day…ha!) debate. Now we return to our regularly scheduled program.

Will do! The sun sets properly over the ocean as it should, on the West Coast. Safely, in beauty and splendour. Clearly better than seeing it descend onto the land as a blazing ball of nuclear fire, consuming our women and children. I don’t understand how those in the East stand the daily horror.

Well I have never played CM against a human/PBEM in all these years. Used to do TacOps that way, in the previous millennium iirc. Otherwise, with those “humans”, only co-op sims and such. And my skills in CM are minuscule relative to those sims. Which are doubtless not THAT great anyway! So I lean to co- op type entertainment. But in the sort of atmosphere you describe, maybe time to try. BTW, Time zone an issue? I see you are standing in the Mother Country, and I on the far Western (better!) edge of North America.

She does display that all too uncanny quite annoying ability. She is sooo fortunate I stay with her! And yet, 32 years later, here we are. She remains One Fine Gal.

Yes it is, throughout the West and also Japan, and as was mentioned China too. It is the choice in the wealthier nations to have fewer children per family. But Russia had its guts practically torn out during WWII and they’ve never really recovered from that demographic catastrophe. Alcoholism and assorted woes have contributed in modern times to the overall ethnic Russian population becoming static, or iirc actually shrinking for the first time. This general tendency in the other economically strong nations is well recognized for many decades in Population Studies research journals. And it is an interesting but off topic struggle for nations to address falling younger demographics/working population with increased productivity per worker. But even that is creating issues; technologies replacing existing workers creates social tensions and disruptions. The world is always@ complicated place in which to make large scale decisions. My wife buts in and reminds me of decisions we, um, I made during the summer. But let’s not get into that! ;-:

Here is January’s Russian demo pyramid. It is…sick. Normal population pyramids are broad at the base and gradually shrink as the age groups age. Like a…PYRAMID shape! But look at this from a Wikipedia chart: It means BEFORE the war, Russia will soon be a nation if old and elderly people, supported poorly by a much smaller number of those who will enter working and child bearing ages. A number of nations have been experiencing a lesser version of this because wealthier nations tend to reduce the number of children per fertile woman. Japan has a really big problem but maybe not THIS bad. I have to check. It’s been a while but I used to do this stuff for various pro work. In fact the USA is the one nation apart from Euro/Russia/Japan with a better demographic pyramid, ironically because immigration has helped steady its base and deliver larger numbers to the workforce now and in coming years. However, it is still a problem, as the USA Social Security projections of number of workers to support one retiree has shrunk. But RUSSIA? A nightmare scenario of misery.

Thanks for these thoughts. Also, small point, when reading the PERUN summary, something like don’t underestimate the impact of 300,000 troops. “Troops?” Might be getting to persnickety semantic, but might the term “troops” be extremely misleading? At least as widely described, many if not all are either being thrown in practically just of the streets - or supposedly after a flawed Cliff Notes version of that was less than a CM single Tutorial. Even that 3rd AK was well equipped and had maybe the CM Training Campaign level. And has been badly ineffective. Rather than calling a mass like that now…amassing!…”troops”, aren’t they really nothing much more than the apt label, a mob with guns”? Add to that your insights about the utter failure of any degree of modern intelligence, planning and leadership. The result of the mobilization looks like the destruction of a significant percentage of the productive male demographic. In a country already challenged demographically. Can the sum total of the highest Russian authorities actually be THIS suicidal?

You teach, I learn? In CMx2 I have recently FB, CW and BS. Also BfN demo only. Perhaps better learning? Waiting for Steam release. Plus the three main CM1x.

Ignoramus #2 here. Thanks, chuckdyke.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

Isn’t it worth a toast or two to how strongly Ukraine’s military has gone from zero major offensive coordination, to THIS? The first time in strength?