Panserjeger

Interpreting of last Mashovets posts
During last 5 days Russians have been crossing to active preventing of further advaning of AFU on Svatove - Kreminna section. They are trying to win a time for more solid defense establishing and want to seize more advantageous forward positions
NW from Svatove Russians are counter-attacking in area Kolomyichykha village with forces about 1,5 BTG of 1st GTA, mainly consisting of 27th MRB units
W and SW from Svatone Russians countering UKR troops on the line Raihorodka - Karmazynivka and also on direction Krasnorichynske - Makiivka. Here Russian forces consists of mainly of 3 BTGs of 254th MRR of 144th MRD and 55th MRB (moutnain), elements of some Spetsnaz brigade (likely 16th, but maybe 3rf too), elements of reservists volunteer battalions BARS-13 and BARS-16
Most active attempts not only to delay UKR forces, but even to retake the line Terny - Torske, enemy has conducted 4-5 days ago, atatcking of Terny and yesterday, shifted attack of Torske. Initially they have thrown forward 6th assault detachment of Wagner PMC, completely consisting of former jailed - 110 men. They attacked by two groups per 40-45 men with recon groups ahead, but anyway were spotted by UKR troops and shelled with mortars and artillery. Later Russians moved forward 2nd echelone - reinforced company of 752nd MRR of 3rd MRD, two platoons of BARS-13 reservists, and a rifle company of DPR mobiks (on the map mistakingly depicted as LPR) from 119th rifle regiment. Ememy had too small number of armor (likely only in 752nd MRR company and likely abot 50 % of full composition), but actively used artullery and mortars fire to support own troops. Russian attack was repelled, Wagner assauult unit lost about 30 % of personnel, at least one jailed was captured. He told about on their section soon will arrive one more assault detachment from the former jailed and about 30 % of personnel have high motivation to fight. Yesterday assault of Torske also was repelled, though Russians likekly could reach outskirts of the village - one soldier wrote "Russians are really in Torske, but only dead"
If we will take whole sector Svatove - Siveroidonetsk, Russians formed here two conditional groupings - "northern" (Svatove area) and "southern" (Kreminna - Rubizhne - Siverodonetsk).
Total their defense consists of 10-11 BTGs in first line and 6-7 BTGs in second line as tactical reserve. 4-5 more BTGs are in deep rear on replenishing.
Theese forces are from 2nd, 20th, 41st CAAs, 1st TA and elements of one Spetsanz brigade (16th or 3rd): 2 BTGs of 21st MRB, 2 BTGs of 30th MRB, 2 BTGs (remains) of 200th MRB, 1 BTG of 55th MRB (mountain), BTG of 27th MRB
Also here 2 BTGs of 4th MRB of LPR, 4 rifle battalions of mobiks from two rifle regiment (one of them 119th rifle regimeny of DPR), 7 battalions of LPR Territorial defense and mobiks, 6 detachments of different BARS and regional voulunteer battalins (total strength is about of 1,5 standard battalions)
Need to know, that Russian BTGs after Balakliya disaster in real in better case are "2 company-sized" or "reinforced company-sized". BTGs also lost from 30 % and up to 50-60 % of own vehicles
Russian grouping wich covers remained part of Kharkiv oblast and border area (Tavilzhanka - Troitske - Nyzhnia Duvanka) has 6-7 BTG: 2 BTGs of 55th MRB, 1 BTG of 15th MRB, 1 BTG of 252nd MRR of 3rd MRD, remains of BTG of 200th MRB,  remains of 59th TR of 144th MRD, combined battalion - remains of 18th coastal MRD of 11 Army Corps 
   
 

For those scoffing at Russia preparing defences prompted by the Tweet showing a linear obstacle being created, I might suggest that many would say something along the lines of "they've had months to prepare defences but didn't bother ... how amateurish" had they not done so - in fact there are a bunch of posts to this effect on this thread regarding ground that Ukrainian forces have recently liberated.  Integrated obstacles are a key element of any deliberate defence and are as relevant in the 21st Century as they have been since the advent of warfare as I'm sure @The_Capt will pitch in and confirm.  If this debate is to remain informed, we need to beware the confirmation bias that is evident from this criticism of Russia preparing defences as well as other related influences.  Objective and informed analysis should be our watchwords.

When viewed from space Elon musk’s ego causes a minor eclipse of Zelensky’s balls, but only briefly. 

Can you recommend a book on this little episode, because I think I am a history nerd, and I am clueless on this one. Comments that folks think I am clueless on everything are unnecessary, I know how you feel, you are only right half the time, and I am a stunning genius about socks. 😝

He who invented these cartoons deserves Nobel prize, forget guys from click chemistry.

Most obliged, sir. We are dying breed in this brutal postmodern world. Herodotus and Plutarch are ok, but if you want something really entertaining I suggest Characters by Theophrastus. 2300 years passed but still comedy gold, Monty Python- style.
In this context, it is worth to look at video of this guy. He is True Bob Ross of military food:
He probably wanted to cheer up Ukrainians on the eve of invasion, so made this lengthly video highly praising its new (post-2014) military food. Beware, this channel is strangly addictive. It will probbaly open another 20-page discussion about MRE-s. But still better than discussing winter socks.😎

In Norway we use these:

You wear them over your regular boots. They are waterproof and can even be used while skiing. Every soldiers favourite piece of equipment 🙂

Hey guys! Finally after 3 weeks offline (covid) I have an occassion to come back to this glorious thread...and I instantly find several pages of people talking about their favourite winter socks and shoes. What the hell?😉
A lot of things in this war changed in those 3 weeks, more than in last several months actually...
1.Ukrainians are seriously kicking Russians assess - as predicted in this forum.
2.Putin's mobilization is going as predicted as well, i.e. resembling slow, painful and pathetic road of Tsarist fleet of Rozdhestvensky to Japan, expecting probably similar fate- of long farce ending in short drama.
3. I see Russians Nats still didn't rebell but need tampons to dry their tears every day...We are at the stage Russians apparently even lacks vatnik clothes for winter, which sounds like satire.
Things seem to be very promising...did I miss something? 😎
 
Oh, btw interesting video:
 

this thread has turned into a foot fetish...
here's my winter wear.   baaahhhahh (not really, but not too far off either)
 

In Norway we use these:

You wear them over your regular boots. They are waterproof and can even be used while skiing. Every soldiers favourite piece of equipment 🙂

I will start to get worried if I see anything like this in the RUS mobilization (Finnish exercise for reservists):
footage from gearing up the troops
 

https://babel.ua/en/news/85129-estonia-transferred-drones-to-ukraine-it-was-them-which-the-russian-tried-to-export-for-the-needs-of-the-army-of-the-russian-federation
A historic event here. For the first time in 8.5 years of war common russians actually did something to help Ukraine.

I really like Perun but he is a civilian that appears to work deeply on the corporate side of things.  Sometimes when he wanders into military operations he gets a little off-menu - he has stated this multiple times.
So in order for the Russia mobilization to become “extremely significant” the Russian military needs to overcome much more than it mobilization challenges - it would have to rebuild a better military than it had on 23 Feb.  The RA is demonstrating it lags significantly in the stuff that really matters at this level of warfare - C4ISR, logistics and joint capabilities.  I have watched the RA repeatedly conduct unsynchronized and uncoordinated operations, while the UA does the opposite.  The Russian missile campaign should have been able to cut up Ukrainian infrastructure, both physical and information, if it was coordinated and armed with comparable ISR - they have not done this, instead leaning on terror strikes like this was 1940.  The closest we have seen was the strikes on those dam-locks but I am still not sure of the military value of that action.
If the UA managed to pull off two river crossings it is also a sign that the RA is lagging.  As we saw last spring, a major river obstacle crossing in an environment where ISR is everywhere should be next to impossible, yet the UA appears to have done it. So what? The RA can’t see them, or if they can, they can not act on it.
It will not matter if Russia can get 1 million men in uniform with rusty AKs on the line, if they cannot command, support and coordination those troops they are just going to die - pretty efficiently based on what we have seen from the UA.
I suspect that this war will go down as “the last war of the 20th century versus one of the first of the 21st”.  We have had the preludes in Iraq, Ukraine in 2014 - where the symmetry was reversed, Ukraine fighting like it was 1989 and the Russians fighting like it was 2005, and Armenia.
If the RA suddenly started to demonstrate a 21st century C4ISR architecture, I would be shocked and frankly we would have to rethink this war.  However, despite attempts (see Iranian drones), this is not about sensors, it is about boring things like All Source Intel Fusion and communications. - that takes years to build, years that Russia does not have.
Finally the fact that Russia thinks that mobilization of mass is a solution demonstrates that amateurs on the Russian side are running their war.

My latest thread on twitter. Its in Finnish, but the twitter translation function seems to work rather decently. I will probably translate it in english at some point if I have the time. 
Cheers!
-H1nd/Pasi Paroinen

God love you Haiduk you are making all sorts of sense.  I apologize for grouping you into the genocidal narrative, as I was taking your position as being caught up in some previous rhetoric.
I think I have a bead on what you are saying now.  This is directly connected to the prosecution of this war during and after all we are really unpacking Russian Will - this is central to the questions such as:  possible nuclear response, the depth of Russian resistance and the viability of a lasting security for Ukraine.
Based on a read of your definitions it would appear that Russian Will is in fact brittle.  They have built an edifice of self-importance; however just how invested how each Russia is on this point appears highly variable.  All war is sacrifice - and one question that has bugged me is “what are Russians willing to sacrifice?”  We all know Putin and the power system has almost zero room to negotiate with their own people right now because they sold them a false narrative in line with a lot you are outlining.  This was is existential to Putin and his cronies, but what is the sacrifice calculus for the Russia people and what is the best way to influence it?  This will likely be variable but my sense is in fact one of apathy resting on long held assumptions.  So long as Putin can validate those assumptions they mostly more passive than active - with obvious exception on different poles.
This is interesting and lines up with the whole “we would rather lose to NATO than Ukraine” lines.

Sorry for the delayed response but am on the road. Your effort deserves an answer. Couple points:
”Wokism” is not being enforced by a central authority, at least not in my country.  It is a social movement made be people free to do so.  Governments are getting onboard because in a democracy they need to in order to remain in power”
Japan was successful in expunging its imperial ambitions, which is clear evidence that a nation of people can reinvent itself.
The picture that you and others paint of Russia and all Russians make that impossible.  By the metric you are employing in your very detailed post Russians are irredeemable, all of them.  In fact that has been a central argument on this topic.  Now if you are arguing that Russians can change themselves over time, then we are now talking solutions and not revenge fantasies, which is excellent.
I would argue the best strategy is to pull Ukraine into collective defence and security mechanisms that Russia has never directly challenged.  Rebuild your nation.  Compress and contain Russia and its influence.  Leave sanctions and restrictions in place until Russia finds a leadership that is willing to cooperate in prosecution of war crimes and payment of reparations.  Then influence and encourage an internal Russian government that can conduct and support an effort to reduce the imperial impulse the nation has demonstrated - along with corruption, oppression and lack of democratic freedoms.
However in my vision, it need be accepted that Russia is not irredeemable, nor is every Russian a heartless invader nor active participant in this, or any other war.  One must accept that that are people of varying ideology and beliefs - they just keep turning to the wrong ones as their leadership.  
 

Oh, this requires many writing, but this is impolite to ignore a question, so... 
On my opinion, rashism is a new form of agressive expansionistic and revanсhist ideology, offered by ruling elites to wide mass of Russians as state ideocratia.  This ideology based on of Euro-Asian philosophy of Dugin, "Russian World", "Moscow is Third Rome", USSR 2.0 conceptions. Motivation - whishes of revanchism and domination of Russain elites, which want a redistribution of economical and political influence spheres in the world, contesting the West in hybrid way in the form of restoration of lost Russain Empire (even not USSR) influence sphere and its expanding on other countries. 
Derashization will be VERY long process, which will take maybe two next generations and like said Poesel it will be almost useless for most of curerntly living population, because people over 35-40 years with big difficalty can change own mind settings. 
Because rashism is a product of symbiothic system of power and people's aspirations it has two forming components - outer and inner. Thus, to derashize a nation we have to strike on two components simultainously. Germans in most, I think, were affected only by outer component of nazism. German nation was more civilized and educated, than nations of USSR in 30th. So, German way: punish nazi + force demonstration to Germans consequenses of nazism + "don't ask don't tell" will be insufficient, because in Russian case big role plays inner factors of Russian mentality. So, I think, more proper example should be Japan, where local militaristic ideology also leaned on local mentality and traditions.    
So, outer factors:
- Neo-imperial phylosophy.  New authorities must recognize and condemn publicly Euroasian/ Russian World/ USSR 2.0 conceptions as neo-imperialistic and colonial. Their place should be near Mein Kampf for learning by hystorians.
- Ideocracy. Rashism now is a obligue state ideology like communism of USSR time. All state media provide only ideocratic messges. Alternmative thoughts and critic allowed only for minor aspects. If oppopse thougts appear on state TV as opponents of state mainstream, it's usually give like marginals and freaks. Remedy -  ideocracy must be destroyed. Returning real pluralism in media, like this was in early Yeltsin's times. Media have to show widely crimes of former Russian elites - both against other nations and against Russian people. Though, I must point that several investigations of independent Russian journalists about Putin's palaces and luxury life of oligarchs, which posessed almost all Russian actives and have been turning  income in own huge palaces and yachts, instead to develop Russia, almost didn't have responce from society. Most of Russians consider this is natural order of things for Russia. Though, anyway,  the big role in quick falling of USSR ideology played a role of Gorbachov's "glasnost", when millions for relatively short time learned about communist crimes and that West is not "rotten", but much more successfull, that Soviet paradise.
- "Ruling and ordering" party. Like Communist Party in USSR, modern "Unite Russia" plays the same role, providing ideocracy to regions. All other parties just a puppets, imitating democracy, even they criticize main party, lile Communists or LDPR. Remedy - establishing in future of real diffrent democracy political platforms. But on the time of "crossing period" Russian have to be ruled by "steel hand in velvet glove", leaning on some political force.
- Educational system. Ideocracy complete occupied all education system - from kindergardens to univercities. The vertical region government - educational department - director - teachers maintains state ideology line. Kids from small years have been learning "Russian supremacy" ideology, based on lessons of hystory, when Russia always held just wars for the sake of defending of oppresed, carry enlightmnent and freedom and always won, glorifying Russian weapon. All this backed up with endless cult of war with dressing in WWII uniform, kids "military parades" and as final stage membership in state paramilitary organizations like "Junior Army" or cossacks, studing in numerous classes in many usual scholls with reinforcement military and phisical training. All this also to the statemant "kids are not guilt". Of course, their choice can be caused by parents or teachers, but membership in "Junior Army" usually their deliberate choice. On other hand teachers are obedient performers of election falsifications, because voting points mostly located in schools and teachers usually are most of committee members. So the remedy - demilitarisation of schools, new course of history, releasing of teachers from the brutal pressure of officials, demanding to execute.
- Orthodox church. Despite in Russian Constitution claimed separating of church from the state, but indeed like in Tsar times, Church became a lean of state ideocracy and a tool of state power sacralization. The Church is a main conductor of "Russian world" and "Moscow is a Third Rome" conception as well as huge amount of weird anti-semith conspiracy. Church blesses Russian agreesision, Church is a provider of intolerance to other Christainic confessions and intolerance to other thinking. Church supports the cult of war - all can recall real devilish Main Military Cathedral, which looks like a God of War temple. The Church interferring more and more in everyday life of Russians. Church more and more sneak to education system, but not for some sort ethic or religion knowledges, really need for youngsters, but for implementing of "Russian world" ideology and typical Russian life principles, which form inner factors of rashism. Remedy - changing of Church leaders on more moderate, real expelling idecracy influence of Church from educational system.
- Cult of war and Great Victory. All Russian life pierced with mentions about wars and victories, public interactive demonstrations of weapon, parades, rallies like "Immortal regiment" etc. As I told cult of war tied with education and church. And Great Victory Cult now became the secob religion in Russia.  All this should be completely removed especailly on cross period. History of wars and role of Russian in its have to be studied based on science, not on ideocracy. 
Inner factors. There is very tough to fix moods and patterns, composed during centuries.
- Church role. Russian version of Orthodox faith provide several dangerous mind settings - do not rise against powers (sacralized power!) and be obedient to powers, abasement of person with a word "slave of the God", suffering and humility is a right way (so Russian belives that their dads and fathers sufferes and built great country, so they have to suffer for the some great goals), "pray, all the Will of God" (brings up life passivity and expectation some high-ranked official or some happen will help in their question), do not keen to achieve mundane goods and modern knowledges (for example several years ago Church representative stated the learning of English and other languages is really do not need for true Orthodox and number of school lessons of foreign languages in schools should be shortened). And in the same time Church leader lives in luxury mansions, use luxury cars and spent own time on yachts. This is Russia. 
- povetry breed to the craving to ostentatious wealth and envy to prosprity nations. Despite Church influence, all people want to live in prosperity. Though children of generations, who lived in communal flats with one toilet and kitchen on dozens persons and stood in long queus for Yugoslavian high boots inherited this wish to show own success, posession of expensive things and as a consequence own higer place in social hierarchy - from poor Buriatian village inhabitant, which son brought looted washing machine to middle class, to Russian businessmen and oligarchs, buying up expensive real estate around the world in order each can see his success. So, povetry traumas born an envy to prosperity nations and whishes to stockpile of wealth. Putin, for example, because of his tough childhood has this mind trauma.
- swaggering and feeling of own supremacy. This feature of national menthality was discribed many times by Russian classic writers. Because of "Special mission of Russian nation - nation of God-Bearers" ideas of Russian World concept, most of Russians believed they are special "spiritual" people, all around owes them ("because we won in WWII"). Even if he is "poor Buriatian", which took bank loan to spent own vacation in Egypt or Turkey he will behave himself as a middle-east sultan. He will be humilitate personnel or demonstratively disrespect the culture of other country or nation. Even Russian middle class, which fled to Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan is rescenting that there no road things in Russian, no Russian-speaking service (you must know Russian! Are you russophobs?), no employment if you doesn't know local langauge, no cinema in Russian, no school in Russian and too much "non-Russian" around at all, but well, we will change here everything soon!  So, this fearture of mentality is good soil for growing of chavinism.
- cruelty and inner agression. Despite "humanistic Russian culture", the value of life in Russia didn't cost even broken penny. Tough life, hard work, povetry, small salary, especially in deep province have been generating inner agression, developing into carving to alcohol and drugs, showdowns, crimes, harrasments in families, bullings in scholls. In many regions of Russia in last years developed "A.U.E." mass jail cruel sub-culture, involving teenagers. Such spite of so embitterd people enough easyly to support by agressive rhethoric on TV, steering in right direction, blaming in their misery "anglo-saxes", "US and FRS", "Eurogays", "NATO", "jude-massons conspiracy against Holy Russia ", "khokhols, traitors of Russian World" etc.
This list can be continued, but I stop here. There is need to re-educate at least two generations to fix some mentality bugs and instill humanistic values in order to turn the country of Orwel's 1984 into normal peaceful and potentially prospering state. Else the cycle depicted on the cartoon below will be endless

 

And just to finally end this pointless back and forth topic of misunderstanding - I want to clarify what I want to all people crying "omg you want genocide". I want russian empire to cease existing, ideally, baring that I want a big wall between us and Russia for at least the next century, until they repaid us all the reparations and made sure we rebuilt everything, until this war is just a bunch of pictures in the books to our grand-grandchildren - and if Russia falls down and disintegrates during this time - then I want a big bucket of popcorn and a front seat atop that wall. That's it. I certainly don't want Ukrainians to bloody our hands any more than how it already is. Our lives are too precious for revenge wars.

There have been two incidents recently where norwegian seabed cables have been cut. One was a fibre optic cable to Svalbard, and the other a combined research/defense cable in the North Sea (probably used is to detect subs). Investigations have found that both cases were probably sabotage, but it is of course almost impossible to get proof of who was behind it. However, a norwegian media outlet investigated the incidents, and found that at the time of both incidents the same russian fishing vessels made repeated passes in the area of the cables.
Here is a link to the article, sadly only in norwegian: https://www.nrk.no/nordland/xl/russiske-tralere-krysset-kabler-i-vesteralen-og-svalbard-for-brudd-1.16007084
In Norway we are pretty much certain that the russians were behind it, but without concrete proof the government did not confront the russians directly. I work with IT security, so this has been a big thing recently as the most important communications cables out of Norway are sea cables.
So for me there is no doubt that Russia has the capability to do sabotage on the seabed, using civilian ships or submarines.

It's sad, that many of westrerners have rose glasses, considering only "system" responsible for this war. Russian Constitution (like and Ukrainian) says: "The nation is single source of state power". If so, they responsible for all, what this power did. Responsible with direct involvimg, responsible for any form of support, responsible for own indiferense "we are out of politic". The latter is the same sin. Because indifference of millions breeds the tyrany of one. And because this all Russian nation should carry collective guilt. And I can assure you - many of those Russians, which were against Putin's regime from the beginning and tried to struggle with it - they share this opinion and they feel a shame for their nation allowed it.
Putin and other are not came from Mars. As I told recently, Russian political system and Russian society is symbiotic systems. One can't live without other. Russian power is a spawn of Russian nation aspirations. "Strong hand, all world must fear us, we are great, we must rule the world, restore USSR/Russian Empire". Russians supported this power in 2014, when they occupied Crimea - all streets in every Russian city and last asshole village were filled by jubilant people. About 90 % supported. Not a abstract system, but Russian Vanya, murdered people  and looted goods now in 2022. And about 80 % of Russians supported SMO even in May, after blitzkrieg failing. 
I have (or had already?) some friends in Russia. Typical Russian middle class, which enjoys the life and almost completely apolitical. They weren't chavinists or snobs, who consider that only Russian culture, language and face of life  and have many sympaties to Ukraine, they even suppotred our Maidan, but they anyway were adhered to the opinion "why do you so much want to join the West if we are culture&religious close nations and one people at all, though with some minor differences?" So if such moods had "liberals", what sh..t in the heads of more "deep nation" representatives?
Typical picture in airports - this man is going to leave Russia, scaring mobilization, but he weared in Z-marked closes. Now on the border with Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russians are hastly deleting all war-support symbolic from own cars. I belive, 2/3 of theese "refugees" supported the war.
But, of course, we shouldn't kill all Russians, I didn't see this in Kraze posts. They should by derashizied, like Germans were denazified after the WWII 

 About "Kraze doesn't consider Russians as a nation". You just didn't understand his words. In English names of nation representatives "American, Ukrainain, Italian" (nouns) and mean "having feature", like "Ukrianian, American, Italian culture" (adjectives) sound the same. In Russian language the word "Russkiy" means "representative of Russian nation" is adjective, not the noun. It reflects not "who are you?" but "whose are you?". So, this ethnonim really more hystorical construct, including Slavs, Caucasians, ugro-finns, buriats, and many other nations, composing Russian state. 

There have been two incidents recently where norwegian seabed cables have been cut. One was a fibre optic cable to Svalbard, and the other a combined research/defense cable in the North Sea (probably used is to detect subs). Investigations have found that both cases were probably sabotage, but it is of course almost impossible to get proof of who was behind it. However, a norwegian media outlet investigated the incidents, and found that at the time of both incidents the same russian fishing vessels made repeated passes in the area of the cables.
Here is a link to the article, sadly only in norwegian: https://www.nrk.no/nordland/xl/russiske-tralere-krysset-kabler-i-vesteralen-og-svalbard-for-brudd-1.16007084
In Norway we are pretty much certain that the russians were behind it, but without concrete proof the government did not confront the russians directly. I work with IT security, so this has been a big thing recently as the most important communications cables out of Norway are sea cables.
So for me there is no doubt that Russia has the capability to do sabotage on the seabed, using civilian ships or submarines.

There have been two incidents recently where norwegian seabed cables have been cut. One was a fibre optic cable to Svalbard, and the other a combined research/defense cable in the North Sea (probably used is to detect subs). Investigations have found that both cases were probably sabotage, but it is of course almost impossible to get proof of who was behind it. However, a norwegian media outlet investigated the incidents, and found that at the time of both incidents the same russian fishing vessels made repeated passes in the area of the cables.
Here is a link to the article, sadly only in norwegian: https://www.nrk.no/nordland/xl/russiske-tralere-krysset-kabler-i-vesteralen-og-svalbard-for-brudd-1.16007084
In Norway we are pretty much certain that the russians were behind it, but without concrete proof the government did not confront the russians directly. I work with IT security, so this has been a big thing recently as the most important communications cables out of Norway are sea cables.
So for me there is no doubt that Russia has the capability to do sabotage on the seabed, using civilian ships or submarines.

There have been two incidents recently where norwegian seabed cables have been cut. One was a fibre optic cable to Svalbard, and the other a combined research/defense cable in the North Sea (probably used is to detect subs). Investigations have found that both cases were probably sabotage, but it is of course almost impossible to get proof of who was behind it. However, a norwegian media outlet investigated the incidents, and found that at the time of both incidents the same russian fishing vessels made repeated passes in the area of the cables.
Here is a link to the article, sadly only in norwegian: https://www.nrk.no/nordland/xl/russiske-tralere-krysset-kabler-i-vesteralen-og-svalbard-for-brudd-1.16007084
In Norway we are pretty much certain that the russians were behind it, but without concrete proof the government did not confront the russians directly. I work with IT security, so this has been a big thing recently as the most important communications cables out of Norway are sea cables.
So for me there is no doubt that Russia has the capability to do sabotage on the seabed, using civilian ships or submarines.

Agreed.