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Zeleban

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  1. Like
    Zeleban reacted to keas66 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't understand this line of thinking .  Who ever claimed   Western  Armor is invincible ? - We have Seen Leopards , MI1A1's , Bradley's  blown up before in multiple theaters over the last few decades ( Saudi Arabia , Iraq , Turkey , Syria  etc )  - it is no surprise they are doing so  and will continue to do so in this theatre of action .  This is  the same set of delusions now being packaged around  F-16's  as some sort of wonder weapon  . You analyze the success rate of a class of vehicles - success in terms of completing its designated mission goals  over several months if not years of use . Whether a single  tank is destroyed or captured in a particular  tactical encounter  is utterly irrelevant .
  2. Like
    Zeleban reacted to pintere in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    From telegram:
    https://t.me/pilotblog/5624
    German Interior Ministry for the first time reported how many Germans are fighting in Ukraine - Welt
    According to them, 39 people left Germany with the intention of participating in hostilities. It is noteworthy that 27 of them are on the side of Russia and 12 are in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
    There are both right-wing and left-wing extremists among them.
    If this is accurate then… it’s rather disappointing. Though these numbers are hard to verify, they seem plausible enough as up until now I’ve never actually heard of any Germans in the ranks of the international legion. I’ve seen videos/reports of volunteers from the US, Canada, the Baltics, the UK, Taiwan, Japan, Poland, Georgia and even Colombia, but not a single German.
    And considering how many Germans fought bravely and determinedly against the Russians in the last two world wars, it’s also a bit surprising.
  3. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Billy Ringo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/27/republicans-support-ukraine-war/
    Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion more than a year ago, the anti-Ukraine right has been working to convince the American people and the Republican Party that it is not in the United States’ interest to support Ukraine. They are failing miserably.
    The House recently held its first votes on aid to Ukraine since the GOP took over in January — and on vote after vote, the vast majority of Republicans repeatedly voted to beat back amendments proposed by the anti-Ukraine faction.
    I'm still up on my hill, US support for Ukraine is solid.
  4. Like
    Zeleban reacted to kraze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is why I hate "human rights" organizations.

    https://www.unesco.org/en/articles/unesco-director-general-deplores-death-journalist-rostislav-zhuravlev-ukraine

    One thing that I don't quite understand is "Journalists serve a critical role in informing the world about conflict situations and must be protected."

    The guy looks pretty protected to me.


  5. Like
    Zeleban reacted to kevinkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We are not going astray. It is THE discussion from a strategic and policy making POW.  Let's acknowledge the current landscape is defined by nuclear blackmail. Russian should not be in this game as a society. It's only possession of WMD that allows for Russian conduct.  There is a reason that WMDs have not been used so far despite the west's large assistance to Ukraine. Some are open minded enough to want to know why that is and if the envelope can be pushed even further into Putin face. Pretty simple. 
  6. Like
    Zeleban reacted to kevinkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not sure how many mine clearing vehicles the allies have since they never intended to fight a static war like we are now watching. If they have them, they date back to the cold war. I also think ATACAMS are a bit harder to shoot down than a cruise missile. I might be wrong in both statements since I am working off of memory. 
  7. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Of course!
    That is why we can't give Ukraine Javelins, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
    Oh but that is why we can't give Ukraine HIMARS, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
    Anyway, this is definitely why we can't give Ukraine tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.
    But it definitely is why we can't give Ukraine proper air defense systems, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
    This time though, this is why we can't give Ukraine Western tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
    It is however most definitely why we can't give Ukraine long range missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.
    And of course we can't give Ukraine the cluster ammo, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.
    But this time. This time for sure! This time we can't help in any other way, whether it's the grain deal (also known as "Russia manufacturing famine in the third world", something Russia does for fun every once in a while) of jet fighters or more missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do!
    ...
    I took a tram in the city the other day, and saw a teenage girl with Ukraine pin on her backpack. She was wearing a glove over the stump where her right hand should be, and had some black cloth covering part of her thigh where something took out bunch of flesh. World doesn't need more of these.
    But keep coming up with reasons why Russians should be left alone murdering and crippling more and more Ukrainians. Keep calling looking for solutions "bloodlust". I'm sure it's easy and fun thing to do. I wouldn't be able to look myself in the eyes, if I did, but you do you.
  8. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    - In response to the current back and forth on the forum here -
    With regards to certain enemy capabilities which we spend oh so much time discussing, I do not worry about it, though I respect it. It can be managed.  Personally, I (and many of my colleagues) are readier than ever to finally get into the fight and help win this. Everyday I wake up waiting for them to do something stupid and finally give NATO a clear, unambiguous, reason to intervene directly in this war. That’s the solider in me - - it hard to see all of our (combined) power not being used when everyday Ukrainians have to bear the burden alone (at least physically). That doesn’t sit right with me, never did. 
     
    All of this to say I get it, it’s hard to watch this from the sidelines, whatever the reasons for that up to now. Still I read, learn about, and appreciate the challenges of leading the combined West through this crisis, with all of the diverse perspectives that it comes with. 
     
    I trust the Alliance, and I trust the Ukrainian General Staff. I have my own opinions on what I would risk, which is more than current, but that isn't up to me. In the end, we are all on the same side here, let’s remember how important that is, even when it gets testy. 
     
     
  9. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah this seems to be a mistake Western politicians (except for Biden, despite half his country calling him weak) seem to be hellbent on making again and again and again. There is no diplomacy with mafia. Mafia thinks "if they're talking to us, that means they are weak and we can keep pushing" and Russia is a mafia as a state.
  10. Like
    Zeleban reacted to kevinkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No, it's far more important and therefore worth the added risk. 
     
    All that can be managed. That's why we spent so much money on the technology and training to enforce a no-fly zone. If Russia lights up an allied a/c they would be toast. Yes, there is risk. But I think it's worth it to save Ukraine. I do respect your thoughts on this. Tough call. 
  11. Like
    Zeleban reacted to kevinkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    When I visited the Cliffs of Moher I marveled at the view the cows had every day. Never thought about nuclear war. But I guess those winds from multiple directions sum up life itself and we carry on regardless. 
  12. Like
    Zeleban reacted to kevinkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's the point. You get it. We can't let evil regimes have a place in the world order merely because they threaten mass destruction. At some point a confrontation has to take place or evil will run roughshod across the planet. 
  13. Like
    Zeleban reacted to kevinkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No, the west's proxy is being held out to dry having to fight a war without the resources to obtain their stated goals and the goals of stuff shirts in the western capitals. sumfink like that anyway. 
  14. Like
    Zeleban reacted to kevinkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What the heck going on now? Seriously, I understand your point and fears of escalation. I just believe a war of the scale we are fighting can't be nuanced if the end result is something other than an ugly stalemate where Ukraine struggles to recover for years. Our so called leaders have to fess up and tell the world what their real goals are. Their actions do not support the stated objective that Ukraine will re-take its stolen lands. Something else is going on and it's as cold as a witch's tit. 
  15. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Billy Ringo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So worried about Russia's reaction,  Russia's red-lines and what might they do if "X" happens.
    What about NATO's red-lines? EU red-lines? US red-lines?
    They've bombed and killed citizens. Intentionally targeted civilian infrastructure and residential areas. Raped.  Tortured.  Kidnapped children.  Blown up dams resulting in the destruction of 1,000s of acres of prime farmland, blown up ports important to international shipping of food supplies and who knows what else.
    Does NATO or the US even have red-lines? Are we so GD'md spineless to even dare state them publicly and hold the Russians accountable?
    I've negotiated with major retailers for over 3 decades and one thing I've learned without exception--they'll keep asking for more until they are finally told NO.  A hard NO, and not before.   Maybe it's time to draw a hard line in the concrete, state it publicly and take control back from the Russians.
     
  16. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Nastypastie in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That thing doesn't look close to the sort of yield needed to shift that span. Troll farm out in force in that comment section too.
  17. Like
    Zeleban reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yep that fits perfectly my definition of a moron! 
    Same argumentation used as for not delivering tanks because the Orcs still have anti tank capabilities and tanks.
    But keep on defending these folks. It is your call.
  18. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    One would think that totalitarian empire keeping largest mechanized force on this planet in constant readiness for 45 years, with only one goal in mind- offensive (preferably over nuked battlefield), would be enough to convince some people Russians indeed were/are a threat to the West as well. This studio even made entire game about it.
    Just to give addendum to previous discussion about validity of muscovite danger. Since perhaps many viewers of this forum not reading Russian are not familiar with state of collective current Russian psyche, as expressed in myriads of their TV channels, internet discussons on media platforms as well as in private conversations, it is worth to reitorate how things stand now:
    1. Large swath of population seems to be convinced they already wage kinetic war with NATO, but limited in scope to Ukraine. Kinetic, not just proxy- NATO officers and special forces are everywhere in banderistan, according to them. This notion is far more widespread than just core nationalists; it is common among less literate strata of population, probably a minority but still large, maybe 20-40% overall (no hard and undisputable sociological data make assessment difficult). But surely many more than 50% are at least convinced this is purely defensive (= rightous or even holy) war ont heir behalf that West started, though. For quite many Russians hot "war with NATO", even if geographically limited*, wouldn't be totally new quality, but just formalization of current state of affairs. Many would probably even be relieved in that case- mental blocks nurished by propaganda of Great War for motherland, heroic soldiers, imagined social solidarity would finally fit in right place. It is minority of population, but growing.
    *Yes- basically CMBS setting.
    2. I don't even enumerate soft actions like spy attacks, use of nerve agents on foreign soil (let's count this as "Whoopsie..."), countless provocation by planes and ships, political meddling, etc. Many of them in other historical context, and with actors less patient than the Western states, could lead to war by themselves.
    3. They made artificial flood on largest river in Europe, stationed tanks in the centre of Chernobyl zone and are possibly not far from considering blowing another nuclear power plant.
    4. Western Europe in popular Russian imagination (especially older generations) starts on Elbe, not even Odra river. Just a reminder for our German friends. Reason? Beginning of this post. ^
    5. Again, perhaps many people are unfamiliar with Russian media (or understandably unwilling to dive in this sewer)- potentiall use of WMD was long ago inernalized and is opnely being discussed daily. To the point they have special programms in public TV (with folks who claim to personally dine with the Tsar) dedicated only to this issue of "preventive" nuclear attacks, with real specialists discussing potentiall fallout, how many nukes would be needed to blow off Amsterdam, Hague ("Hehe, you know why..."  as Skabaieva once giggled joyously with her guests) or London. Highest Russian officials, including twice the president of this country, routinely throw their nuclear phantasies publically. Public, sory for words, intellectual mastrubation with Cossacs drinking their horses in Paris 200 years ago or Soviet Army soldiers "teaching German women proper behaviour" in 1945 are part of very normal, mainstream discourse now.
    Now of course this is internal game and a pose to bargain something, one could say; they surely really don't mean it, right? Perhaps. But sole fact that nuclear devastation became a casual topic they are very proud upon, touched even during morning breakfast with kids or being shared by Russian teenagers with girlfriends in chats, should make us much more worried of Russia than we did for last 30 years. I am pretty sure many professional people dealing with MAD in Washington and other places are scratching their heads how to proprely assess what is real in this nev environment, and how to differentiate between real and token danger. Muscovia AD 2023 is much less predicatble even than late Soviet Union in this respect. Especially after we saw how its internal system of power is vulerable in last months.
    So yeah- even if you live in charming Provence countryside, well-connected commercial megalopolis like Amsterdam/London/Berlin or some Greek island- it doesn't matter, Russian madness and never satisfacted urge to being proper Empire can reach you in various ways.  Don't fool yourself folks; there are many more ways to do this than just conventional military power.
     
    Sorry for long post. As a bonus, clip of Kornets bouncing off of Leopards 2A6 :
     
  19. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Astrophel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Wallace reveals why he is not the calibre for a Nato chief and how he ranks in the second division of the already doubtful Tory government in UK.  We should be thankful that Ukraine is fighting our war and give them everything they need.  All the Ukrainians who have lost life and limb in this war deserve an apology from Wallace.  
    What does he want to preserve his stocks for?  Is he planning to invade Argentina?
  20. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh, it's very simple.
    West = NATO = imperialism = colonialism.
    Russia + China = Anti-West = anti-imperialism = anti-colonialism.
    It is of course extremely idiotic, but it is simple.
  21. Like
    Zeleban reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Many years ago when I was just a snotty teen, what would now be termed a millennial or something I got involved in some radical circles. Didn’t get a lot of what was happening but there was a lot of factionalism. (Cue the forum scene in “Life of Brian” splitter!). I recently had reason to recall one I’d completely forgotten. An organization called the African People’s Socialist Party. They just got indicted for collaborating with a Russian agent. The world is a pretty f’d up place with a lot of f’d up people.  They have this view that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is an anti-colonial struggle.  Some serious drugs would be needed to get to that conclusion. 
  22. Like
    Zeleban reacted to MSBoxer in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As I sit reading today's posts, my house has been rocked by low flying F-16s, F-22s and an assortment of other aircraft.  Fortunately, it is all in prep for this weekend's Quad City Airshow.  As I run from my desk every few minutes to catch a glimpse, I also realize how lucky I am to experience this as entertainment and not during wartime use.  

    This **** in Ukraine needs to end and Putin needs to be put down like the rabid dog he is.  Hell, empty the whole infected kennel and eradicate the entire breed of those that use force to satisfy their own twisted desires.
  23. Like
    Zeleban reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We are not yet seeing the amount of violence implied by the multi sided information op that seems to be underway on the Russian side. Still not quite sure if this is a real break, or some sort of scripted show.
  24. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Think this Sacks character was discussed here before. Well if anyone wanted to know how Elon really felt about this war, here it is.
    I may buy an electric vehicle one day, but it will definitely not be a Tesla.
  25. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Audgisil in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's my understanding that surrendering is one of the most dangerous things to attempt during a firefight, likely even more so at those ranges. Those Ukrainian soldiers had less than a fraction of a second to determine if the enemy moving toward or past them are armed, carrying a grenade, attempting to engage in hand-to-hand, etc. The fact that the Ukrainian soldiers called out at one point in the video for the Russians to surrender speaks very well of them. However, this is a clear case of "when in doubt, open fire."
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