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Zeleban

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  1. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from panzermartin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The quality of public services did not have any impact on the morale of Ukrainians. Moreover, this year the situation with electricity supply is much better than last year. Last year at this time I was freezing in a cold apartment without electricity (light was provided once every 4 hours, and this is at best). There is nothing like it now. There is constant electricity, all services work uninterruptedly as in peacetime. 
    Last year, even during difficult times, when there was no electricity and there were constant air raids due to missile attacks, there was no panic or depressive mood. Our invincible armed forces have just liberated Kherson, European countries have promised to send us a bunch of tanks, and so on. No one had any doubts about victory
    Ukrainians in the rear are now living in what appears to be peacetime mode. If you find yourself in Kyiv now. you won't feel any difference from Berlin or Paris. Ordinary daily life of a peaceful metropolis. Only occasionally does Russia launch a single missile strike or UAV attack. Of course, in Kherson or Slavyansk the situation is completely different. There are daily artillery strikes and gliding bombs. 
     
    Therefore, I think that the problem is the information security of the Ukrainian population. Russia is trying to undermine the morale of Ukrainians by all means available, and unfortunately it is succeeding.
  2. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Meanwhile, there is literally a blockade of Ukraine. It seems that every day Ukraine is becoming more and more cut off from its Western neighbors. No supplies from volunteers to the front, no quadcopters, thermal imagers, hemostatic tourniquets. In addition, there are excellent prospects for pitting nearby neighbors against each other. What else does Putin need to successfully defeat Ukraine? 
  3. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Meanwhile, there is literally a blockade of Ukraine. It seems that every day Ukraine is becoming more and more cut off from its Western neighbors. No supplies from volunteers to the front, no quadcopters, thermal imagers, hemostatic tourniquets. In addition, there are excellent prospects for pitting nearby neighbors against each other. What else does Putin need to successfully defeat Ukraine? 
  4. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hey now, not all crazy racists are conservative, so why would you think that Wilders is one?
    Wilders and his party are not conservative, he is a populist or neo-fascist whose party program is mostly filled with demands the Dutch constitution doesn't even allow. 
    Fascists are not really conservative, even though conservatives tend to be the first to align with them and help them into power because they tend to be the more emotional and gullible parts of society.
    Original fascism is an eclectic mix of writings from a wide spectrum of political views (Italian fascist theory was created by communist, socialist, nationalist, reactionist, esoteric, mysticist and dadaist writers and who knows who else I forgot to list), and the new post-millenium neo-fascism didn't get any less weird and inconsistent.
    That is why Wilders can be an outspoken supporter of militant zionism and yet feel closely aligned with neo-rashism and not feel one iota of cognitive dissonance. Or why Meloni in Italy can be quite Ukraine-friendly despite hugging a Mussolini body-pillow at night.
    Now, if the coalition negotiations in the Netherlands put Wilders in the seat of the prime minister, the relevance for Ukraine is mostly through the EU council.
    Hungary's Orban is another of Putin's stooges in the EU, and quite openly so. When the EU is trying to sanction a country, it needs the agreement of all other countries except the target country. Thanks to the populist conservative PiS in Poland, Orban had had an ally who would always block any sanctions against Hungary as long as Hungary blocks any EU sanctions against the authoritarian policies of the PiS in Poland. But the winds changed in Poland and Orban looked like he would end up alone.
    With Wilders he would have an ally again who keeps the EU off his back while he works on further turning Hungary into a pre-invasion Russia, a hollowed out democracy where rule of law has collapsed. 
    And that means the positive Ukraine policies of the EU can become really, really delayed or prevented, as with two veto countries which protect each other, the EU structure becomes paralyzed. It was never designed to deal with this situation.
  5. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    who told you that HIMARS can be stopped with the help of electronic warfare? The main guidance system of these missiles is inertial (the same as that of the Shahed UAV). GPS is used only for INS correction.
    I think that the regularity of HIMARS missile attacks on Russian positions indicates the opposite.
  6. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Shahed is not controlled by a person from the ground; it does not have a control channel or video signal. He flies along a pre-programmed route. It is controlled by a gyroscopic autopilot. It has very poor maneuverability due to small steering surfaces
  7. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    who told you that HIMARS can be stopped with the help of electronic warfare? The main guidance system of these missiles is inertial (the same as that of the Shahed UAV). GPS is used only for INS correction.
    I think that the regularity of HIMARS missile attacks on Russian positions indicates the opposite.
  8. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Shahed is not controlled by a person from the ground; it does not have a control channel or video signal. He flies along a pre-programmed route. It is controlled by a gyroscopic autopilot. It has very poor maneuverability due to small steering surfaces
  9. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    But how do you think you can intercept the Shahed UAV, which has a speed of 160 km/h, using a quadcopter whose speed does not exceed 90 km/h? We all know from the history of the Second World War that to intercept a bomber using melee weapons (machine guns), a fighter must have a speed almost twice as fast as the bomber.
    In general, shooting down the Shahed UAV even with the help of an assault rifle does not seem to be such a big problem (Shahed flies along the same trajectory at the same speed, without even trying to dodge). The problem is that the fighter with the rifle is at the right time and in the right place (on Shahed's flight route).
    The Russians know this and therefore set Shahed's route in the most unpredictable way. First it flies south, then turns west, then north, and so on. It is very difficult for our air defense forces to guess what the real target of this drone is and thus plan how to counter these drones.
    The real problem is not how to shoot down a drone (which is not really a problem), but how to detect it in the first place. We need a small and cheap "anti-drone" radar or something like that. By placing hundreds of such radars in populated areas of Ukraine, it would be possible to react much more quickly to changes in the course of drones and successfully coordinate the actions of mobile anti-UAV teams
    In general, I am surprised that, faced with UAV attacks, Ukraine has not yet adopted the experience of World War 2. When barrage balloons were actively used to combat bombers. We could surround critical infrastructure and cities with such balloons (which should be much smaller than their World War II counterparts, because they must withstand not a large bomber, but a small UAV) with anti-drone networks. This method is much simpler and cheaper than creating high-tech radars.
  10. Like
    Zeleban reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    To be followed by: "we completely want to support Ukraine, but since the HIMARS don't work we sadly must remove all aid going forward".   
  11. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh yes, I completely forgot about these “leaks”.😅
     
    Now we can be sure that New York Times and Economist articles can change the laws of physics. By the way, don’t you find it strange that articles from such well-known publications literally echo Russian propaganda?
    The only way for Russia to effectively counter HIMARS missiles is to stop supplying these missiles to Ukraine. And I can say that the Russians have had some success in this direction (largely thanks to famous American publications)
  12. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Shahed is not controlled by a person from the ground; it does not have a control channel or video signal. He flies along a pre-programmed route. It is controlled by a gyroscopic autopilot. It has very poor maneuverability due to small steering surfaces
  13. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    But how do you think you can intercept the Shahed UAV, which has a speed of 160 km/h, using a quadcopter whose speed does not exceed 90 km/h? We all know from the history of the Second World War that to intercept a bomber using melee weapons (machine guns), a fighter must have a speed almost twice as fast as the bomber.
    In general, shooting down the Shahed UAV even with the help of an assault rifle does not seem to be such a big problem (Shahed flies along the same trajectory at the same speed, without even trying to dodge). The problem is that the fighter with the rifle is at the right time and in the right place (on Shahed's flight route).
    The Russians know this and therefore set Shahed's route in the most unpredictable way. First it flies south, then turns west, then north, and so on. It is very difficult for our air defense forces to guess what the real target of this drone is and thus plan how to counter these drones.
    The real problem is not how to shoot down a drone (which is not really a problem), but how to detect it in the first place. We need a small and cheap "anti-drone" radar or something like that. By placing hundreds of such radars in populated areas of Ukraine, it would be possible to react much more quickly to changes in the course of drones and successfully coordinate the actions of mobile anti-UAV teams
    In general, I am surprised that, faced with UAV attacks, Ukraine has not yet adopted the experience of World War 2. When barrage balloons were actively used to combat bombers. We could surround critical infrastructure and cities with such balloons (which should be much smaller than their World War II counterparts, because they must withstand not a large bomber, but a small UAV) with anti-drone networks. This method is much simpler and cheaper than creating high-tech radars.
  14. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    But how do you think you can intercept the Shahed UAV, which has a speed of 160 km/h, using a quadcopter whose speed does not exceed 90 km/h? We all know from the history of the Second World War that to intercept a bomber using melee weapons (machine guns), a fighter must have a speed almost twice as fast as the bomber.
    In general, shooting down the Shahed UAV even with the help of an assault rifle does not seem to be such a big problem (Shahed flies along the same trajectory at the same speed, without even trying to dodge). The problem is that the fighter with the rifle is at the right time and in the right place (on Shahed's flight route).
    The Russians know this and therefore set Shahed's route in the most unpredictable way. First it flies south, then turns west, then north, and so on. It is very difficult for our air defense forces to guess what the real target of this drone is and thus plan how to counter these drones.
    The real problem is not how to shoot down a drone (which is not really a problem), but how to detect it in the first place. We need a small and cheap "anti-drone" radar or something like that. By placing hundreds of such radars in populated areas of Ukraine, it would be possible to react much more quickly to changes in the course of drones and successfully coordinate the actions of mobile anti-UAV teams
    In general, I am surprised that, faced with UAV attacks, Ukraine has not yet adopted the experience of World War 2. When barrage balloons were actively used to combat bombers. We could surround critical infrastructure and cities with such balloons (which should be much smaller than their World War II counterparts, because they must withstand not a large bomber, but a small UAV) with anti-drone networks. This method is much simpler and cheaper than creating high-tech radars.
  15. Like
    Zeleban reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine remembers how everything began 10 years ago.
    When the diplomatic takeover of Ukraine did not work, Putin pulled out the guns.
    The EU parliament and EU commission seem generally working on pulling Ukraine in quite diligently, but the EU council always has a veto, and the council is made up of all the heads of government of the EU members. This is where Hungary can throw wrenches into the gears. There are also, however, a lot of paperwork processes the council is actually not that involved in.
    The bureaucracy of the EU is like an elephant. Its starts very slow and never gets fast, but once it set its sights on something, it is generally picking up almost unstoppable momentum.
  16. Like
    Zeleban got a reaction from Chibot Mk IX in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Post translation:
     
    The Ukrainian Armed Forces use tactics with master UAVs for FPV. FPV with a heavier charge refers to the mother drone at maximum distance and height. After which the FPV “disappears” and flies towards the target. The mother drone also acts as a repeater. This way the drone saves battery and flies over a longer distance + the weight of the warhead increases.
     
  17. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Post translation:
     
    The Ukrainian Armed Forces use tactics with master UAVs for FPV. FPV with a heavier charge refers to the mother drone at maximum distance and height. After which the FPV “disappears” and flies towards the target. The mother drone also acts as a repeater. This way the drone saves battery and flies over a longer distance + the weight of the warhead increases.
     
  18. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Post translation:
     
    The Ukrainian Armed Forces use tactics with master UAVs for FPV. FPV with a heavier charge refers to the mother drone at maximum distance and height. After which the FPV “disappears” and flies towards the target. The mother drone also acts as a repeater. This way the drone saves battery and flies over a longer distance + the weight of the warhead increases.
     
  19. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A sobering thread from a pro-Ukrainian Russian, for adherents of “effective sanctions”.
    ...An old acquaintance from Moscow writes to me, who knows firsthand about the habits and expenses of the upper stratum of metropolitan society (at the same time, he is sober-minded and not a beneficiary of the war):
    “Moscow has noticeably increased the number of luxury cars. This year’s Range Rover models cost from 300,000 euros and above.”
    "We flew to Thailand on vacation. Aeroflot, Dreamliner, separate cabins, everything. Boeing sanctions? No, we haven’t heard" “We are flying to Chamonix for New Year’s Eve. As of December 23, all Moscow-Geneva tickets via Istanbul have been sold, the business price is 2 million 700 thousand rubles (27 thousand euros)”
    Moscow is bursting with money, military orders, and rising oil prices. TC Kolokol XXI writes: “Since the beginning of the SVO in Ukraine, Russia has earned 550 billion euros from the sale of oil and gas. Such data was published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The EU remains the largest buyer of Russian energy resources. The main buyers are Germany (28 billion euros) , the Netherlands (18 billion euros) and Italy (17 billion euros). After the EU, the list of main buyers is followed by China, which spent more than 143 billion euros for these purposes. In addition, the Russian Federation exports energy resources to India, Turkey and South Korea.
    Just think about it. Over the course of a year and a half of war, Putin spent about $170 billion on the extermination of Ukrainians. This is three times less than the money he received from trade with the world and in particular from the ever-preoccupied West.
    You can throw stones at me, claim that everything is really bad, Russia is in a hole, and the current fever is just a blush on the cheeks of a terminally ill person, but in fact, Putin has settled down very comfortably in this hole. While we read with bated breath about the square meters won by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and about the brave landings on the left bank of the Dnieper, the war is going on as scheduled, and just as scheduled, Russian missiles are killing Ukrainian civilians every night.
    In Russia itself, the flow of people wanting to play Russian roulette during the war is not decreasing, so the authorities can completely do without the drama of a new mobilization; there is enough meat for minced meat from both former mobs and contract soldiers and conscripts. The state defense order is working, Kim and Iran are customizing shells and drones. The United States is distracted by the Middle East, and the calendar is already 2024 and the shadow of Trump hangs over the world (if he doesn’t win, he will definitely shift the aid agenda to Ukraine). And from all sides, from Kyiv, and from Brussels, and from Moscow, serpentine speeches about a dead end and a truce are heard. Everything is going according to plan - a long, decade/s, hybrid world war.”
     
  20. Like
    Zeleban reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  21. Like
    Zeleban got a reaction from Panserjeger in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don’t care whether it’s true or not that Russia has increased profits from selling oil to the West. I don’t care whether it’s true or not that Russia has found an opportunity to operate its fleet of civilian aircraft. I don’t care what Moscow residents drive or where they fly on vacation. I only care about the fact that Putin has enough money to buy meat for this war and that’s a fact. The only way to defeat Russia is to deprive it of money.
  22. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The Russians note that cases of Ukraine using Tochka-U missiles have become more frequent. Although it was previously believed that the reserves of these missiles had long since run out
  23. Upvote
    Zeleban got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A sobering thread from a pro-Ukrainian Russian, for adherents of “effective sanctions”.
    ...An old acquaintance from Moscow writes to me, who knows firsthand about the habits and expenses of the upper stratum of metropolitan society (at the same time, he is sober-minded and not a beneficiary of the war):
    “Moscow has noticeably increased the number of luxury cars. This year’s Range Rover models cost from 300,000 euros and above.”
    "We flew to Thailand on vacation. Aeroflot, Dreamliner, separate cabins, everything. Boeing sanctions? No, we haven’t heard" “We are flying to Chamonix for New Year’s Eve. As of December 23, all Moscow-Geneva tickets via Istanbul have been sold, the business price is 2 million 700 thousand rubles (27 thousand euros)”
    Moscow is bursting with money, military orders, and rising oil prices. TC Kolokol XXI writes: “Since the beginning of the SVO in Ukraine, Russia has earned 550 billion euros from the sale of oil and gas. Such data was published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The EU remains the largest buyer of Russian energy resources. The main buyers are Germany (28 billion euros) , the Netherlands (18 billion euros) and Italy (17 billion euros). After the EU, the list of main buyers is followed by China, which spent more than 143 billion euros for these purposes. In addition, the Russian Federation exports energy resources to India, Turkey and South Korea.
    Just think about it. Over the course of a year and a half of war, Putin spent about $170 billion on the extermination of Ukrainians. This is three times less than the money he received from trade with the world and in particular from the ever-preoccupied West.
    You can throw stones at me, claim that everything is really bad, Russia is in a hole, and the current fever is just a blush on the cheeks of a terminally ill person, but in fact, Putin has settled down very comfortably in this hole. While we read with bated breath about the square meters won by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and about the brave landings on the left bank of the Dnieper, the war is going on as scheduled, and just as scheduled, Russian missiles are killing Ukrainian civilians every night.
    In Russia itself, the flow of people wanting to play Russian roulette during the war is not decreasing, so the authorities can completely do without the drama of a new mobilization; there is enough meat for minced meat from both former mobs and contract soldiers and conscripts. The state defense order is working, Kim and Iran are customizing shells and drones. The United States is distracted by the Middle East, and the calendar is already 2024 and the shadow of Trump hangs over the world (if he doesn’t win, he will definitely shift the aid agenda to Ukraine). And from all sides, from Kyiv, and from Brussels, and from Moscow, serpentine speeches about a dead end and a truce are heard. Everything is going according to plan - a long, decade/s, hybrid world war.”
     
  24. Like
    Zeleban got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don’t care whether it’s true or not that Russia has increased profits from selling oil to the West. I don’t care whether it’s true or not that Russia has found an opportunity to operate its fleet of civilian aircraft. I don’t care what Moscow residents drive or where they fly on vacation. I only care about the fact that Putin has enough money to buy meat for this war and that’s a fact. The only way to defeat Russia is to deprive it of money.
  25. Thanks
    Zeleban got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A sobering thread from a pro-Ukrainian Russian, for adherents of “effective sanctions”.
    ...An old acquaintance from Moscow writes to me, who knows firsthand about the habits and expenses of the upper stratum of metropolitan society (at the same time, he is sober-minded and not a beneficiary of the war):
    “Moscow has noticeably increased the number of luxury cars. This year’s Range Rover models cost from 300,000 euros and above.”
    "We flew to Thailand on vacation. Aeroflot, Dreamliner, separate cabins, everything. Boeing sanctions? No, we haven’t heard" “We are flying to Chamonix for New Year’s Eve. As of December 23, all Moscow-Geneva tickets via Istanbul have been sold, the business price is 2 million 700 thousand rubles (27 thousand euros)”
    Moscow is bursting with money, military orders, and rising oil prices. TC Kolokol XXI writes: “Since the beginning of the SVO in Ukraine, Russia has earned 550 billion euros from the sale of oil and gas. Such data was published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The EU remains the largest buyer of Russian energy resources. The main buyers are Germany (28 billion euros) , the Netherlands (18 billion euros) and Italy (17 billion euros). After the EU, the list of main buyers is followed by China, which spent more than 143 billion euros for these purposes. In addition, the Russian Federation exports energy resources to India, Turkey and South Korea.
    Just think about it. Over the course of a year and a half of war, Putin spent about $170 billion on the extermination of Ukrainians. This is three times less than the money he received from trade with the world and in particular from the ever-preoccupied West.
    You can throw stones at me, claim that everything is really bad, Russia is in a hole, and the current fever is just a blush on the cheeks of a terminally ill person, but in fact, Putin has settled down very comfortably in this hole. While we read with bated breath about the square meters won by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and about the brave landings on the left bank of the Dnieper, the war is going on as scheduled, and just as scheduled, Russian missiles are killing Ukrainian civilians every night.
    In Russia itself, the flow of people wanting to play Russian roulette during the war is not decreasing, so the authorities can completely do without the drama of a new mobilization; there is enough meat for minced meat from both former mobs and contract soldiers and conscripts. The state defense order is working, Kim and Iran are customizing shells and drones. The United States is distracted by the Middle East, and the calendar is already 2024 and the shadow of Trump hangs over the world (if he doesn’t win, he will definitely shift the aid agenda to Ukraine). And from all sides, from Kyiv, and from Brussels, and from Moscow, serpentine speeches about a dead end and a truce are heard. Everything is going according to plan - a long, decade/s, hybrid world war.”
     
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