danfrodo

I keep catching myself digging for confirmation bias that Ukraine will win. When I look at it objectively all I know is there's a lot of murder & mayhem ahead. Skinny russian conscripts 19 yr olds being killed or forced to mow down amateur fighters in urban areas who are trying to immolate them. This is awful. What happens at dawn Sunday in Kyiv with all the pressure Putin is putting on the military commanders?

They do know what a bad idea it is to have all those molotov cocktails in one big pile??

Bold move. Emotionally I absolutely love it. Let's see what those russian forces do against that! Dangerous but would definitely get all the cards out on the table. I wonder how ready forces on Polish border are for that? Maybe if that column comes down toward Lviv they could intervene there at least.

BeondTheGrave: Russian mutiny? now that would be great if it spreads. Russian soldiers have their cell phones with them I wonder?

Aragorn, what would you do at this point? Folks, it was asked earlier what we would do in Putin's shoes. So now what to do in NATO's shoes? Aragorn gets to go first since he brought up more action from west -- go, my friend! And hopefully the Dutch will be there in force.

So I suspect Putin is running the show, doing like Hitler and micro-managing more & more as the mess gets worse. And he knows there's nasty weapons coming in from Poland so now is going to push down toward Lviv from Belarus to cut the roads? So are those Belarus or russian forces massing there? If it's Belarus army, then they are going to get the same sanctions as co-aggressors. Considering the dictator there just called in Russian troops to save his neck, not sure what choice he has. So opens a new front. And also opens new possibilities of clash w Poles if they stray. Also opens possibility of outside intervention to protect refugees from that thrust. My oh my when Putin goes stupid he just don't stop!

So shelling Kyiv is a war crime, isn't it? Hasn't been discussed much here but Putin could be labeled war criminal. Especially if China and India find the backing him or sitting on the fence is worse for them than jumping on the bandwagon.

I can't believe nukes being discussed and yet it's certainly plausible given Putin's words & imbecilic actions and the corner he might find himself in. Uh oh. A week ago my biggest worry was that baseball wouldn't start on time in the US due to owner/player fight, which is a catastrophe, of course. ANd now nukes? I guess that puts baseball in perspective.

and in the end China wins a big prize: a super hostile population and a country with wrecked infrastructure and economy. And if it all goes badly could lead to popular uprising against Chinese leadership, again w possibility of hanging from a a lamp post. Seems totally worth it to me, I'd definitely risk my dictatorship and insanely lucrative and powerful life over that. Makes total sense. Spain's Franco, evil m-f-er, did get one thing right: the only thing that was gonna unseat him was getting involved on the wrong side of WW2. And so he festered like a giant, disgusting tumor on spain for three more long decades.

Ahhhh, I see. Yeah, that sounds likely.

Wow, SNols, that is some serious intel, thanks much.

Aw c'mon fellas. You know us americans don't speak no euro stuff. Translation? If you're gonna post, ya gotta share

Putin surely wants the Baltic states back in his empire, just like he wants Ukraine. But how insane would it be for him to even try? He'd get smashed. Euro/US states could mass some really high quality, super deadly forces before he's massed his invasion force. So how could he pull it off? We'd see it coming and be very well prepared. If he put the whole russian military up there he'd make some progress, but in not very long the force would be degraded beyond offensive capabilities and would be out of supplies, which are burning on the roads behind the front. Of course, Putin's not looking like the most rational actor at the moment, so you are probably right

so that is russian fuel depot?

Hopefully Ukranian ambushers were able to loot some good stuff from the vehicles that were abandoned, maybe medical supplies, hopefully lots of RPGs.

Haiduk's video is amazing. That is a huge number of destroyed russian vehicles, mostly supply and support. No wonder the logistics are crumbling. Maybe that's the way to fight. Hold the cities and attack the soft supply lines via back roads.

What's amazing to me about all this is how incredibly stupid it is for Putin. He is dictator for life and there's no conceivable way that changes unless he does something that unites the people and the elites against him. So he decides to do the one thing that could leave him swinging from a lamp post. And for what? To own a super hostile, wrecked country and the eternal hate of most of the world? Clearly he is having issues w risk/benefit analysis.

So weapons, including panzerfausts now, are being shipped from Poland to Ukraine. But how do those weapons get to those in the big fights I wonder? By truck it looks to be ~200 miles to kyiv, ~300+ to the east. So one day truck trip but can they get the weapons those last few miles to the troops in need? I sure hope so.

Interesting that Putin, who could've done this anytime, chooses to do it right about time of spring rasputitsa (sp?). Keeping those russian columns on main roads is a nice bonus for the defense I suspect.

So I get up, US west coast time, do big dog walk in the woods, some chores, and then sit down to the most informative and clear thinking Ukraine war coverage available -- this thread! Y'all are really something. Thanks much!

Great points, Butschi. One can only hope that Russian people have access to information. If he did go against NATO while counting on nukes to back us off, then maybe there would be an uprising. Or someone would step in. If he really starts threatening nukes then he's clearly insane. There's just too many intelligent military men, hopefully they would step in. Hopefully. Then again, I thought invading Ukraine was bats-t crazy, but here we are.

On a little side note about perceptions: I have heard from so many folks my generation or older how soft and weak young people are today, they're pansies who can't stop staring at phones, blah blah blah. Yet thousands of those pansies are lining up to recieve AK47s and will probably die in the hundreds over the next few days. Every generation has the ability to be tough and brave, it just doesn't show until they are tested. Like all those kids who signed up for the military after 9-11. I salute all them all. Now if one person could just somehow find a way to put a bullet through Putin's face. What a monster. Threatening nukes, threatening Sweden & Finland, threatening everyone. He is completely insane and out of control. I hope the russian people rise up and their brave soldiers refuse to fire on the crowds. Those soldiers are the only thing between Putin being in charge and Putin strung up on a lamppost. I guess I'm just upset seeing what is happening to the good people of Ukraine, minding their own business, living in an independent country w a lot of freedom & culture & history.

F- YES!! I just heard expert saying that some of this seems rather ill-planned, and believes Putin was figuring he was just gonna be bluffing everyone into doing his bidding. Then he got caught in his bluff and decided, late, that he was actually going to attack but the detailed plans were somewhat hasty. Just conjecture but does fit the operation market garden mess at the airport. Or maybe Putin thought the Ukrainians would all just run away??

I hope you don't get in trouble for posting that stuff, Husker. I don't want any soldiers dying in this. This is murder not just of Ukranians but also of Russian soldiers just doing what they are duty-bound to do. There's only one Russian I want to see suffer, and that's the one that doesn't seem to understand that men his age should wear a shirt outdoors, especially when riding a horse. Dude has some serious body image delusions. Amongst his now more dangerous delusions.

Haiduk, I really really really hope that is true!!!!! You are saying Ukrainian forces expelled the russians from the airfield? I hope that's true. And may all your javelins and stingers fly true! If Putin wins he gets a super hostile populace w a wrecked infrastructure and economy -- how the F is that worth all this murder and expense?