danfrodo

Sounds like there's lots of Russian science & tech folks fleeing right now. I think they'd make any country better. I've been on two business trips to Israel. It was interesting how the Russian Jewish immigrants had changed Israel into a tech leader since so many of them were very highly educated engineers and scientists. Most of the engineers I worked with had Russian names. What a great bunch of folks! And much better food than I think they would've had in Russia. "Dan, have you tried the schnitzel, it's very good today!" So yes, best of Russia's most educated citizens -- please leave and come and enrich the the free world instead of being forced to make computer viruses by Putin. Your children and grandchildren will thank you.

when looking at ways Putin could fall, the most likely is from the powerful staging a coup of some sort. Not easy considering Putin has his own security organization (two of them). He's led Russia into an epic disaster and there's lots of crime bosses who's klepto-empires are getting badly hurt. So maybe the Russian organized crime lords can find a way. Sad that that's who I look to for hope. As far as a popular uprising, if the people show up in the streets it all comes down whether or not the soldiers will fire on their own people (-- whether they consider those people to be their own). If they fire, the uprising will probably fail. If they don't, then Putin will swing from a lampost, metaphorically speaking. Though I am hoping that the I can someday change out 'metaphor' for 'literal'.

maybe that's the way to go. And mask these offensives by conspicuous shows of heavy weapons in other sectors to draw Russian forces & attention. I wonder if UA now or soon has the the ability to dictate the action. If Russia can't make any significant offensive action, then UA can thin line w less risk. Kind of like eastern front after Stalingrad. Russians could locally mass because they could thin lines without much fear of major german breakthroughs -- where were the germans going to go that was going to threaten soviets in a strategic manner? The russians were able to locally have big numerical advantages locally despite not having huge numerical advantage over the whole front (until late in war).

Some clown in the propaganda department got advanced screening of Operation Mincemeat movie. (based of Ben Macintyre book on the brits sending dead body ashore w fake invasion plans in the Mediteranean) So once the movie comes out they'll show it as proof of British perfidy.

So maybe now certain folks can praising Putin as a 'genius' in america? Calling for Putin being charged as a war criminal is a big deal. It makes it toxic for companies to deal w him. So it seems China is still totally cool w him, though. All the autocrats and wanna-be autocrats look at this and say "yeah, that's what I'd like to do to those who oppose me"

I wonder if those were human shields they simply shot and threw out of vehicles once no longer needed, along steve's idea in earlier post

It'll be interesting to see how Ukraine plays this. Big offensive into some weak point in Russia line (hard to mask the buildup)? Or infiltration / drone-arty war for a while? Try to strike soon or just wear them down? Big decisions. Maybe the separatists are weak and can be exploited, though I suppose Russians have enough sense to reinforce them.

so in a somewhat 'crazy' kind of question, what Russian assets are near Ukrainian border that might be opportunities. I know this is an escalation and only to be used if necessary. But if Putin takes the Donbas hostage, I wonder if there's some things Ukraine to take to use in negotiations. Anything valuable near the border I wonder?

ah, thanks for that LethaFace. Good to know.

So now Belarus & its dictator might finally get some international attention, meaning sanctions & war crimes charges I hope

I think all the above assertions are more correct than what I'm about to say. I am picturing Putin looking over a map w units on it, and doing the Hitler thing and moving his units around like they are whole and not shattered remnants or severely depleted. "steiner's army will cut them off as they advance toward Berlin!" And what a difference a day makes. Yesterday there was still at least some question about what happened in Bucha and eslewhere and the extent of the massacres. No question any more. And it's getting worse by the hour it seems.

I think at the end of another day in this war I am on the same page with Aragorn. This fight aint over. The south is yet to be decided. Hopefully RU forces will either be stopped or will overextend, yet again. And hopefully UA forces can prey on RU supply lines. I wonder how much infiltration opportunities there are for UA along that very long front line? The gods always punish hubris. Putin still has seemingly powerful forces so I am still worried about just how much territory and people Ukraine will still lose.

well put. Scared monkeys. with a penchant for mob psychology & mob action. And Putin decides on risking everything instead of simply doing the right thing for Russia. It aint rocket science. They have a strong history of science education, at least at the university level. They have a lot natural resources. No one is actually going to attack them. They have customers for their fossil fuels right next door in china & europe. Putin could've made Russia 'great' in the sense of prosperous happy people. Instead he went for the Hitler version of 'great'. And is getting worse result so far. At least hitler had France. For a while.

Or as I like to say "I am interested in military history .....as history" This live action kind of war makes me sick. I mean, this is some really really sick stuff. why do any of this? Why why why why? Russia has everything it needs to be prosperous. (oh, except the will)

"Special Operation and Peace". Professional quality humor

I think I am on option 3 here: Ukraine attacked targets of opportunity that had low risk. they would not want to jeopardize combat ready forces in any risky attacks of RU units that are already in bad shape and out of business for some time. And it allows redeployment. I think UKR did attack retreating forces and did not make a deal with RU. UKR just decided on cost/benefit/opportunity analysis. Plus Russians ran away w Monty Python like determination (was in a post some days ago)

That's what I thought, Haiduk, very sorry to hear that. I think I was hoping for a more optimistic answer though not expecting one. By the way, VERY GLAD you are no longer personally under threat from Russian artillery. I won't be surprised if Putin throws some missiles your way but at least you and Kyiv are 'safe'.

Dumb question, and I've seen that Ukrainian officials say there's no way they can relieve Mariupoll in time. But is there actually anyway UA can relieve Mariupol? What would it take? It looks like RU can get supplies from both east and west -- is that so? So would have to cut russians on two sides or make thrust to the city itself. What's the terrain? Where would someone who knows the area strike?

Wow, the Ukrainians spare no expense on their "crisis actors". They even smell dead. -- this will soon be appearing on your favorite Russian propaganda feeds.

I think Trent Telenko has risen to his level of incompetence, which is just one step higher than maintenence/repair master sergeant. His early postings on tires, maintenence, etc, were quite informative. Since then he's just a clown chasing shiny objects. Like Steve said, Ukraine has no logistics for these vehicles. But they would look very lovely in an updated CMBS that has lots of NATO in it...... Having said that, it absolutely abhors me to disagree w DesertFox on anything. So I agree the Germans were, early on, behaving like cowards and had to be shamed into doing the right thing. They were in a bind over the natural gas and that made them vulnerable to extortion by Putin. But now, lesson learned, and Germany seems to be doing better. The german govt is not pro-Putin, that's just worthy of a tabloid. Germany is in a bind over energy. And it needs to do the right thing, take the pain, and fix it's energy problem (which will take time). NOTE: posted this before seeing DesertFox's reply. So maybe I am way off base on the logistics issue

if you use "woke and PC" you are just another brainwashed tool. This is just a shiny object meant to ignite culture wars. We have much bigger problems. Like in the USA we are considered now a failing democracy. And it's not because of some "woke & PC" horses-t. It's because of a very different brand of propaganda. So how about we all call a truce on this foolishness and get back to Ukraine? Do we not (nearly) all here have a shared interest in seeing the new Hitler defeated? What I care about is that the west (and the world) stays united and that Ukraine can emerge 'victorious', although that's an odd word for having a big part of one's country laid to ruin.

As was mentioned somewhere above, need to get objective investigators into the atrocity areas ASAP. The more these crimes can be shown in an orderly, evidentiary light, the better. Makes it harder for folks to be in denial. Of course some folks don't really live in an evidence based reality, they live in a propaganda reality (in Russia, in USA, in most places), but that can't be helped. So I wonder what's going on down south today? I wonder if this will be like Kyiv, where every day we wondered "will there be a new russian offensive?" and every day it didn't occur, until we finally realized that the calculations on this forum were correct -- there was no ability to have that offensive.

Maybe there is some of that, Kinophile. I am more disposed to the thought that US/NATO were fearful of escalation (to the level of stupidity on jets & AFVS & tanks), but as Putin has become more ruthless decisions were being considered to increase the support w heavy weapons. And a perfect time to announce this publicly would be when we see these war crimes. It's not like they only just began to consider these complex arms deals over the last day or so.

days? Within days? We can haz tanks tanks to Urkaine in days? So are we finally gonna give them the gawdamm jets??? The whole "don't upset little Vlad else he'll throw a fit" bull-t has driven me crazy from the start. I know I am feeding into my wishful thinking but if these are combat worthy and can be on the southern front in next couple weeks that could make a big difference. We'll see if UA can do a better job against ATGMs than russia did, though I suspect morale will be a big factor. Takes some guts to ambush an armored column from RPG range. Putin is gonna completely flip out over this. And he'll send jets and missiles to try to stop the trains. And hopefully those jets & missiles will be shot down w the AD systems that have been sent.

FIFTY BTGs out of the game!! w 16 destroyed!!!!! That's 10% totally gone and a nearly 1/3 of entire Russian complement of 168 BTGs (is correct number?). And out of the original 120 that's nearly half. That is astounding! (well, astounding to me, at least). Dang, I feel better already