danfrodo

as per videos by The Vulture and Steve above: Steve's bottom video about the arty smashing RU bridging operation: IT'S RAINING, HARD!!! Yeah Putin, definitely time your invasion for March/April. The Vulture video: That takes some real courage. Those RU soldiers could open up on the protestors and they wouldn't even get reprimanded probably. Good to see some restraint by at least some RU soldiers. Might help them once they are cut off and captured

We are in an interesting time -- and remember that "may you live in interesting times" is actually a curse. But I'm sure most of the folks here are reasonably knowledgeable in history and know the cardinal rule for history: "don't read history backwards", meaning most folks look at history and knowing the outcome look at how everyone and everything was driving toward that outcome. but that's not reality -- the players in real events are in the dark as to what will actually happen, they are all gambling all the time. And here we are with pretty good information, but still we are in the dark as to what will happen next. Sometimes there are very nonlinear tripping points, like Midway. The US didn't know it was going to win at Midway -- a few unlucky breaks and it would've been all the US carriers burning, but it had good odds due to intel and surprise. But in one day the Japanese Pacific fleet was dealt a blow from which it could not and did not recover. Every day, all day, Putin is plotting how he can turn feces into chocolate. We are pretty sure he can't win big w conventional offensives, maybe he's trying to just hold on to Donbas and the landbridge. But what does he think? How far will he go? How delusional is he (if at all)? If he believes that the linear (conventional) paths are all blocked, what will he do? I do not like this darkness.

oh great, now we have one of those 'round earth' people on the forum. It's obviously flat and the sun goes around. I know this because it was clearly demonstrated by a cartoon video on youtube, so it must be true. But seriously, I do wonder if the level of deliveries to UKR has stepped up recently. Those reservists being trained probably need just about everything to come in from the outside world.

I thought this guy was a clown. But he's shown more guts than many of the 'respectable' leaders. And he's shown leadership -- he didn't wait around for focus groups and polls to tell him to help Ukraine, he started pouring in aid. So hats off to the bugger for proving me wrong!

totally roger that, Chuckdyke. I misconstrued where you were going.

Europe is imploding? They seem rather unified at the moment to me. I think I am missing your meaning?

So again night falls in Ukraine w/o any breakthroughs or dangerous advances by Russia. And every day it doesn't happen it seems to me less like to happen at all. UKR bringing in reserves and building defenses in depth I presume. So RU taking a village or a couple kilometers at heavy cost are probably part of URK game plan. Stay dispersed, ambush, use depth.

Whoa, invade Russia? Attack China? I certainly am not calling for any of that. I do want to see NATO drone & air forces attack Russians inside Ukraine -- yeah, that's maybe over the top & irresponsible but at this point this war is so heinous I don't care. Only a lunatic would talk of invading Russia. And only a greater lunatic would talk of invading China. I also advocated early on military forces from willing countries, w invite of Ukraine, to set up a safe zone for displaced Ukrainians in western Ukraine. Daring Putin to attack those safe zone forces. China may or may not decide to become increasingly aggressive. China is and the rest of the world are very strongly interdependent economically, so it would be really stupid to push too far. And Xi or whoever is next hopefully is not as personally empowered as supreme dictator Putin.

That's what I was wondering.....

I burst out laughing at that one, well done Taranis

videos above: Yet more wrecked gear. So as UKR forces move more & more into the liberated areas I wonder how much the vehicle count will increase? This is crazy, how can these units even function after these losses -- oh, wait, they can't.

how does one set targets for these? Drone? Satellite? AWACS? Once UKR gets over these horizon anti-ship missiles it's gonna be fun fun fun fun

Not tanks but a lot better than brightly colored Hyundai mini SUVs. And unlike tanks & AFVs probably not much to learn?

So does anyone know what France has done for Ukraine? I see some humanitarian aid, but not seeing much else? and please tell me that fascist pig is not gonna win the election??

What are you thinking here Harmon Rabb? I've been wondering about this myself -- could anti-ship missiles be provided that could somehow reach Russian ships out of sight of shore? Guided by drones? This is one of my favorite dreams, where UKR unleashes a surprise anti-ship missile attack and knocks out a large number of Sauron's naval forces in the Black Sea. My other dream is to wake up and see headlines like "gunfire and fighting going on at the kremlin".

This is what Aragorn and I have been saying from the start. The chickens are fighting back but if you bring a goat to a bird fight you win right away and a lot less chickens die. So unleash the goat (NATO, that is). There's enough war crimes here to justify it. They hawk can choose to flee or get trampled by the goat. 'course best outcome is if the hawk looses all his feathers (heavy weapons) while fleeing.

too funny

Womble is on to something. A silicon fab is an insanely expensive and complex system with bunches of multi-million dollar machines that aren't made on some filthy factory floor in some cheap labor factory. These machines are super precision and are only made in a few countries by a relatively small number of companies. The processes are very very sensitive to dust particles, temperature, humidity, vibration. Some processes are done in inert gas environment. and those fancy missiles aint gonna hit nuthin without some fancy silicon chips that don't grown on trees. I've only gone in the fab at my workplace a few times, but it's a huge hassle of prep to suit up for a clean room environment. So Russia needs chips, like everyone else, and can't just turn the ability on the way it could change kentucky fried chicken to Vlad's Chicken Palace.

So Russian murderers targeted train station filled w civilians, as has been reported here & elsewhere. Does no one in Russia ever read a history book? No one? Killing civilians like this does not make the unoccupied portion of the population want to surrender, quite the opposite.

To close the inside pocket it looks like each pincer has to move 50-70km -- does that sound right? The outer pocket would require ~100km for each. Even if Russian broke through how are they supposed to protect their LOCs given the distance, lack of infantry, and the 'partisan' activities. The roaming SUVs w ATGM teams would have a field day against the supply columns. To counter this Russia needs to control at least 2 km either side of the road I would think. How they gonna do that? I hope RU does move its best remaining armored units up these roads in the usual way. They'll be out of gas in a couple days. And to stop these thrusts UKR doesn't need highly trained soldiers. Just trained enough to know how to shoot and scoot w ATGMs. Whereas RU new recruits have to be coordinated and have good leadership at multiple levels and know how to fight as part of a company sized unit. I am betting on Ukraine for the next round, but I am still scared for them.

I am picturing small ATGM pre-sited and manned ambush sites at intervals along all the main the roads, along w IEDs. THis on top of the dug in regular units and artillery. Plus mobile groups in SUVs moving rapidly to any places the russians try to sneak through on unimproved or dirt roads. And it's supposed to rain 3 of the next 5 or 6 days.

So now we get down to some very nasty realities at the level of the soldiers. The one hope one might have is the end of enlistment period. And now that gone. Pay is behind (allegedly), constant danger, inadequate supplies, bad leaders, bad comrades, and now having their 'contracts' abrogated due to war that is not a war. So the mutinies will increase.

And another day draws to a close in the Ukraine time zone. And another day w/o the great Russian Donbas offensive. Lots of talk out in various media about Russia making some giant terrifying competent army. Instantly. Uh huh. All while under severe and increasing economic sanctions and tech boycotts. Uh huh. And folks think that Russia is going to attack Europe or Finland in the near term. Uh huh. Meanwhile, Finland under cyber attack and air probes -- and, weird coincidence, it's non-NATO. Almost as if there's a connection b/w level of Russian aggression and NATO membership. Maybe NATO drops Hungary and we see how the folks that voted for Urban like that.

Makes one wonder if UKR retreated from those towns specifically to draw Russians farther into the trap. I hope so.

funny and terrifying