danfrodo

I'm with SBurke on this. A 3 day campaign was the only planning, supplemented nicely by a coup. And so before the world could even begin to talk about sanctions this would be a fait accompli. for example, Germany would not be shamed into support for something which the world had no real agency (not to pick on Germany here, just an example of how hard it would be to get voters to accept inflation, shortages, over something that was over already). Plus Putin's general belief that the weak, dithering west would fold. That appears to be the thinking, at least to me. Instead, Ukraine fought and all of Sauron's plans have turned against him, in incredible ways. To the point where Putin now feels so in danger he's jailing everyone in sight.

Erwin, et al, I wasn't saying "Putin is going down!". I was saying that it looks like theirs purging going on at the highest levels and this must be by Putin's command. And these purges aren't just firing/retirement of the incompetent. It's large scale jailing of powerful people. That does NOT say "Putin is fine", it says "Putin is SCARED".

I am not very interested in the nuke discussion, he will or he won't and it could go a million different ways. And he probably won't. What is for sure is he has a war to fight and also needs to hold on to power when it would seem that lots of folks want him out of power for this mess. And we see things like the above -- this is big stuff. We hear that an entire security branch was jailed/sidelined. Generals being imprisoned. At first one might say "punishment for incompetence". But the numbers that are being reported seem to indicate Putin is purging based on fear of these power centers staging a coup. He may or may have evidence of coup planning, but high level purging is a big indicator of serious problems at levels close to Sauron's idiot twin. When we think of collapse we think of the russian army, but collapse can also happen at the top. Things like this make me think there's possibility of that.

Kudos on the comedy today, Gents, several times I laughed out loud. So another day passes in Ukraine, and as I am wont to do, I notice that Putin's great offensive has not materialized. And it seems to be raining. And raining again tomorrow, then a few days mostly dry then some more rain or at least showers. While this is surely miserable in the trenches for both sides, it certainly hampers mobility, which I think favors Ukraine for now. And every day that passes means more gear and more training and more ready reserves for Ukraine. And so my hopes now start turning to that ~800km long line that Russia is going to try to hold, and wonder how it's going to keep Ukraine from locally overrunning and destroying weak sectors, one after another.

maybe the money was allocated to upgrade the radar. And it was instead to used to upgrade a yacht.

Folks here haven't played CM? Didn't know that. Welcome! And note that it's a realistic military simulation -- meaning bad guys try to destroy your forces and your men don't have any healing powers once sufficiently wounded, or killed. Like in real life. Winning happens only one way: through the use of real life proper tactics and combined arms. Losing, unfortunately, happens lots of ways! Bad luck, bad decisions, mud, soft sand, lucky enemy shots are all part of the action. This aint Assault Squad or company of heroes. I started on the modern titles a few years ago after some years in CM-WW2. What fantastic fun and intellectual challenges. Modern weapons systems are crazy deadly, crazy fast, and crazy in variety.

Indeed, didn't this bulls--t get squashed in the first 100 pages of this thread? "West is responsible for the war because it made Russia feel sad". Which is ridiculous, because the only thing keeping the baltic states free is their NATO membership. What a clown. Like saying Greece was responsible for Hitler's invasion because it had the temerity to beat the Italian invasion.

Putin's pearl harbor.... yeah, makes sense. Instead of trying to un-do his stupid 2014 mess via some peaceful compromises he doubles down. And economically he's trying to do this war despite sanctions and coming off a global pandemic that already made a big mess in global supply chains. And during spring rasputitsa -- once again his genius is like a blinding light to us mere mortals.

Once again it's like Tolkien: hero from the unlikeliest of places.... Ukrainian hobbit saves a nation of 44 million from enslavement and endless oppression (with a little help from his ATGM & artillery wielding friends)

yes, to all of these new posts. It all boils down to Putin, through his genius, has managed to accomplish everything that he did NOT want. Expanded NATO, stronger NATO, Russian weakness made glaringly obvious, sanctions, worthless ruble, Zelensky is a super popular hero, Russia-curious folks in Ukraine now ~completely on side of Ukraine independence, and Russia is a (nearly) worldwide pariah, and at the mercy of whatever China will pay for it's fossil fuels once Europe weans itself. Was totally worth it, Putin says, as he doubles down yet again.

This seems right to me also, Womble. I just went through (my) last night's posts and see folks talking about massive Russian forces that could be deployed. Yes, could happen over time. But the economic disruption would be heavy and it would take months. Over those months the Ukrainians as getting stronger also, and have much of the world helping them. How does Russia pay for all this while its economy is being dragged down by sanctions? And RU forces will be at an increasing technology disadvantage over time due to lack of trade. When the Russian public starts to see real shortages, even heavier inflation, their sons dragged off to war, will they still support this mess? And if they don't, as I've said before it all comes down to "will the soldiers shoot?" -- against thousands of protestors in the streets. If they shoot, Putin hangs on to power. If they don't, he hangs on a lamp post.

I think the lack of cyber attacks is just what Steve said: he has more to fear from us than we have to fear from him -- by a mile. Same thing on military side. He struts around saying NATO better keep out while he's secretly peeing his pants every time he thinks of NATO missiles & drones & jets smashing his tanks & navy.

and carries hellfire & other missiles?

Womble, that was my understanding also: NATO said cyperattacks would be treated as physical attacks. And Putin is terrified of NATO getting physically involved, that's why he throws around the nuke threat -- it's from a position of weakness, not strength. I also suspect Putin knows that if the west chose to go all out cyberattacks on Russia, there wouldn't be a working bank machine in the whole country. Putin would have led his country into the stone age.

Yes, very very good point here. Putin may accept that he has lost this battle, but he will never give up his idiotic dreams of conquest. He is Sauron. So he'll try to salvage what he can out of this mess. Then he'll work through social media and other sources to undermine Ukrainian democracy, hopefully ending in the election of some puppet who will be like Belarus.

But they gave him nice silver bracelets to accessorize. The Ukrainians are both kind and fashion conscious. I wonder if they'll also give him a nice necklace at some point? What is the punishment for selling out your country to be murdered by the dozens of thousands?

that is a big catch indeed! So he basically is a 'politician' who was 100% in Putin's pocket. And they catch him in UKR uniform?? I wonder what he's been up to?

Well, UltraDave, the military could've been a lot dumber in a hurry back in the day. I was a few weeks from enlisting in order to pay for college. I was working in a gas station making minimum wage and going to comm college at night. But then lucked into a co-op job at GM (generous motors) plant and made 4x minimum wage and decided to forego the military. And that is why the US military did not degrade to Soviet levels decades ago. Sometimes it's not about attracting the right people it's about avoiding the wrong ones But good points here about how military is viewed in different countries and cultures. Overall in the US I'd say military held in high regard and is considered an honorable sacrifice for our country (yes, there's lots of exceptions to that opinion but I am saying overall) Sounds like not the case in Russia, but is the case in Ukraine. Morale and motivation + good tactics & weapons sure do make a difference.

Thanks Harman Rabb, I was looking for a legit way to help, there's always so many scams when there's lots of folks wanting to donate. Putting some money where my mouth is right now.

Putin sure has an obsession w British intelligence.

Meanwhile.... another day passes and the great offensive does not occur. Just more probes, although those might actually be the great offensive. And Putin continues to makes his own worst nightmares come true. Russia is now recognized as weak, completely uncivilized (at gov't level), untrustworthy, dangerous, poor as heck and sinking fast. West is more unified against Russia than it has been in ages. And everyone wants to join NATO. Genius!!

I'll go ahead and ask the dumb question: What will be the real consequences of a Russian default? Both economically and to their war effort? And the article said they have until around end of April to make things right before actual default, though no one thinks they can fix this by then. And RU is suing the US to try to get sanctions removed on their funds in US banks -- hopefully that will drag out for a while -- and RU aint got a while.

Hopefully he wasn't a spy at all. I like this as Putin continues to eat his own. I hope there's plenty of moles yet undiscovered. And also hopefully west is being sneaky and falsely implicating innocent RU officials of spying

At first I was upset at this. Then I took a step back and pictured German gov't officials going to Ukraine to decry war crimes -- that is a really really bad idea given the history of german war crimes in Ukraine back in WW2. It is ripe for outrage and is excellent propaganda for Russia: "Nazis come to UKR to bolster Nazi cause!" There's plenty of history-neutral folks who can go there and bear witness.

As Steve said early on UKR only needs to "keep kill Russians". And Putin looks like he's gonna keep sending worse and worse troops in. Funny all this LOTR stuff. I am on my 3rd re-read right now this time via audiobook, I do it every 10 years. Currently in 3rd book w attack on Minas Tirith coming up. I think the orcs et al have a better army than RU. RU can't even seem to get Osgiliath (Mariupol). They both lost badly at Helm's Deep (Kyiv).