danfrodo

busy night (day for y'all) it seems. I'd say the validity of the various phone calls, texts, etc of atrocities are utterly irrelevant at this point. Mass murder by Russian troops is beyond any reasonable or even unreasonable doubt. The implications of the murders are many: Putin is radioactive globally; nations that were 50-50 are now more pro-Ukraine or at least less pro-Putin; Ukrainians have even more to fight for; and countries supplying aid to UKR have much more justification in doing even more; and a bunch of innocent people are very much dead by purposeful, violent murder. Do the anecdotal bits about individual soldiers even matter at this point? And I didn't even mention the looting. The mass murders are equal opportunity atrocities -- arguing about Russian mindset, Muslim ethics, blah blah blah, it's all f--ing noise. Soldiers of many backgrounds are doing horrible things w one thing in common -- they are all in the Russian army. Meanwhile, the battlefield seems to be a mixed bag. W UKR making gains and Russia making small gains. But can the UKR counterattacks really unhinge things? What matters is unhinging Russian forces such that there's local collapse or at least major reshuffling of RU combat power to thwart UKR advances, taking the heat off other areas. We'll see, the question is whether this becomes WW1 stalemate or not.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, I am on battle #3 and noticed that twice I didn't get my mortars at the battle start. Then I looked at the date on my campaign vs the date of this patch. I gotta start over. And only myself to blame. I feel like Putin right now, simply not properly checking the data before starting a war.

I wonder if for Erwin it's just the local bread factory had a breakdown. Bread is made daily and has a relatively short shelf life. Since a lot of different brands of bread get made in same factory, a breakdown of just a couple days could see shelves start going bare.

I am still hoping that any Belarus invasion takes wrong right turn and crosses Polish border -- that NATO reaction would be fun to watch.

that's some really sick s--t on Putin-TV. Can't wait for the 'stab in the back' mythology to take hold in Russia to explain this. The groundwork already being prepared. How stupid does a country need to be to not see how utterly self destructive this is? And China I think very much does see that. They are way more interconnnected w the world than Russia. I wonder how much of China's nationalistic talk is for domestic audience. That's what happens in US -- politicians posturing to be the tough guy, blah blah blah, spouting uber nationalistic stuff that outside world doesn't realize is really just for domestic politics.

not to get too snarky, but I suppose if LePen were elected these weapons would've been sent to the Russians? I thank all the gods she did not win, both for Ukraine and for the world.

I think it's pretty safe by this point to assume that just about everyone in FSB and military wants Putin dead ASAP. The trick is getting to him (and then getting out). Classic autocratic bureaucracy where no one trusts anyone else so it's hard to form cabals. General A is scared Putin will kill him at some point, but when General B says "let's kill Putler" General A turns General B in, thinking Putin will then trust him more take him off the death list. I agree most likely outcome is some kind of right wing fascist oligarchy, followed by another dictatorship once one of the oligarchs manages to get a monopoly on power. but they still might decide to focus inward instead of outward, which would mean ongoing hell for russians but at least they'd leave the world alone.

Definitely one or the other, as Steve said. He certainly can't be saying what he's saying w/o permission from Putin et al or protection from folks Putin doesn't want to cross. And if he's criticizing Putin that probably means he has protection. 'course, one day he might just decide to do a murder-suicide. Dangerous games being played in Russia these days.

yeah, we can't know if this happened. But take some 19 yr old kid, throw him into a brutalized system, then present him w tons of casualties and a feeling of no escape from an inevitable death, and anything could happen. The 'alleged' intercepts that UKR publishes always have someone talking about how they are being sent to slaughter by the system.

"Herr Putler, the flanks are very vulnerable to enemy counterstrokes" I understand that not all terrain is equal, but I wonder which side has actually taken more territory in the last week? When zoomed in it looks like RU has actually done something, but then looking at the scale I realize it's only like 10km. Whereas UKR is now taking a lot of land west of the severtsky-donetsk.

wow, that is really thin in some areas in the south. 22.8km and 10km per BTG. I kinda like those odds. Unfortunately it seems to be terrain where UKR can't mass anything w/o being seen. The leaves on trees will certainly help hide things, but only if the area actually has trees.

Swift approval is expected according to reporters covering this. There's wide bipartisan support. The bleeding heart lefties and the Trumpers nearly all agree, along w all the folks in the middle. My peace and love and rainbows wife says she'd shoot Putin the head (she's never shot a gun) -- Putin certainly knows how to attract a gal. So I think will go fast.

Well, Mr Rabb, this is not crazy after all. I've been following the intrepid undercover investigators who have blown this whole thing wide open: https://birdsarentreal.com/ Turns out all the birds died out some years ago and have been replaced by robots. Given that truth, then why is it not plausible some of the robot birds have been repurposed as weapons systems? Duh! Open your eyes, CM forum, the truth is all around you if you just have the sense to use the internet, and the courage to face the facts! I've done the research, and I know this is all true -- would they make shirts to sell if they weren't telling the truth? -- of course not! Bird Truthers unite! And now the MSM tries to explain away the truth by calling the conspiracy a hoax, a parody. Clearly some double reverse psychology psy-ops by the CIA and Putin and George Soros, all in cahouts. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/14/the-lunacy-is-getting-more-intense-how-birds-arent-real-took-on-the-conspiracy-theorists https://www.cbsnews.com/news/birds-arent-real-origin-60-minutes-2022-05-01/

Remember that the 100 guns and the gavins are just part of what's being sent. A lot more is there and coming. I suspect UKR will look for targets of opportunity wherever it arises -- bottom quality troops that will rout easily, yielding more & more ground here & there; RU simply doesn't have enough troops, let alone troops of quality, to handle that huge line. There's 2022 version of Romanian and Italian units all over the place. And I think they will focus their artillery on destroying RU artillery -- it's the only part of RU armed forces that is a difference maker.

OMFG GANDALF IS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MEN OF THE WEST RISE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good points, SBurke. Who would make new long term business deals w Putin's Russia? No matter how craven or greedy some westerners might be they would still be investing a lot of money into a business partner that is completely unreliable. They'd be happy to overlook all that if they weren't so very likely to lose their entire investment at any moment in the future (ask the airlines about that one!). And the optics of striking new deals w serial mass murdering war criminals? Not good. By next winter hopefully the energy situation in Europe will look a lot better and RU won't be getting all that money.

He does realize that Stalin would've killed him, right? His chances or survival in that regime would've been below zero. Yet he does pine for the good ol' USSR.

That is quite a long line for RU to defend, I bet they've got a lot of areas that will ripe for exploitation once the ground dries. Some heavy artillery strikes on some low quality units followed by mechanized infantry & armor, perhaps?

so you mean from point east from Zaporizhiia, UKR to push south toward Melitopol? Am I seeing that correctly?

So, getting back on track: time to lay down your bets, if you have an idea of what's coming, on where/how Ukraine will begin it's counterattack phase. What will be the first big goals? I look at the map and am confused as where to even begin.

No problem, LLF, you da man. Keep posting. I appreciate the thought that goes into your posts and usually learn something. Sorry I misunderstood your meaning. I actually have the same fears as you, that the west will sell out Ukraine, though I think because of economic pressure more than anything else.

Hey LongLeft, I generally agree w your analysis here. Except that it aint liberals who are the problem in the west when it comes to supporting democracy & freedom. Biden & Obama haven't been kissing Putin's ass, that other feller and his enablers are the ones doing that. I am sure there's some lefties calling for no war at all cost. There's been a daily peace protest by a bunch of old hippies in front of the county courthouse in my town for years now, and I saw them the other day w signs about Ukraine, wanting to negotiate -- as if that's an option! But those lefties are the fringe, not the mainstream. So how about you think before you throw around these outdated tropes? It's not the lefties that were trying to destroy NATO, wreck western partnerships, and empower Putin for four recent long years. The most popular nightly news commentary show on TV is so pro-Putin it'd be banned on this forum -- and its viewers are all righties, not lefties. But overall, keep up the good work, I do really like your posts.

sounds like me on Black Sea. My drones seem to be target practice for RU AA folks.

Well said, BeonTheGrave. The closest comparison I can think of to this is Barbarossa -- most excellent wonderful plan on paper. All that's required is that your assumptions of quick enemy collapse come true. Make sure to not think through the consequences of what happens w/o quick enemy collapse. And most importantly, double down and double down and double down militarily in a lost war while continually moving the goalposts and spouting out ever more ridiculous propaganda.

what utter b--ls--t. Syria has nearly zero comparison to what is happening now. In Syria, we couldn't even get our aid to the right folks, it was all ending up in the arms of ISIS. I really want to get a gig as one of these clowns so I can be paid to say utterly ludicrous things.