danfrodo

Hey all, wasn't trying to get political. I posted it as an example of the kind of talking points that will probably be used to undermine the US efforts to support the war going forward. Note that Chomsky & Caldwell are both on the same page. The message is "the US is at fault for setting up the causes of the war and for making the war continue, and this is nothing but a proxy war for the US" -- which, as I mentioned, ignores the reality of what Russia has clearly stated it would do to a conquered Ukraine and its people. But these talking points are a way forward for undermining US popular support and will probably be amplified.

Op-ed in NYTimes today by Christopher Caldwell, influential conservative writer. He basically says the war is all USA's fault, and we are prolonging it. He even quotes Chomsky -- conservative quotes Chomsky, WTF?? I'm not going to honor this with a link. I'll paraphrase: 'This whole was is fault of the US, and particularly Biden. You see, small minded fools, the US sent weapons to Ukraine, which made Putin scared so he was forced to annex territory. And then we sent more weapons so he was forced to invade and try to annex the whole country. I'll throw in some legitimate facts about naughty things the US has done to distract you from the utter absurdity of my main premise. And now US is keeping the war going and won't be happy until all of Ukraine is destroyed.' Uh huh, yeah, that totally makes sense given how we are forcing those poor Ukrainians to risk their lives fighting to not be part of Russia. And ignores what Russia itself has been saying for months about how its going to basically enslave Ukraine. What I love most about this is that a well armed Ukraine was never going to attack Russia. Russia continually boasted about its every strengthening military, and most experts thought that was true. But if Ukraine gets weapons to defend itself against a known aggressor state on its border, well, that's cause for war! Sadly, lots of folks will fall for this very reasonable sounding, well written horsedung.

"analytical vapor lock" -- that's great. Is it trademarked or can I use it?

wow, what a great batch of posts I see this morning. I am nearly out of likes and it's only 9:30AM. On the "weapons game changer" conversation: excellent views. My two cents is that what matters most now is to take away the one advantage RU has, which is artillery. They use it for their 'offensive' actions and are counting on it to defend what they want to hold. Those low quality troops might hang on w artillery on their side. Without it, they'll actually have to fight, which they aren't going to do for long or be very good at. So the ability of UKR to severely diminish RU artillery is a game changer. And more videos of UKR troops in training. Training the troops is a luxury that RU doesn't seem to have, clearly indicating which side is desperate and which is thinking longer term (meaning ~July?). One thing I didn't see much comment about: what is up w the RU 90 contract thing? Will this cause mutinies when troops that have been counting the days suddenly are told that their legal contract is null & void? Does anyone here have any insights into this?

So sounds like we'll need to have CMPV -- Combat Mission Polish Valor. Poles w NATO/US kit fighting Russia. I like it already. I base this on the upcoming invasion of Poland that is so widely discussed by Russian pundits.

that's a nice link sent by Kinophile. Very happy to see French stuff in the fight. Which does create more work for BFC since they'll need to add French army to an upcoming CMBS module. So, Bradleys: I read that US has a lot of bradleys it's phasing out. I know it might be a ways out in time before those could be used by UKR. Anyone heard anything on this? Wouldn't it be amazing in a couple months to see a bunch of UKR bradleys lighting up some RU defense? I know MLRS is highest need by UKR, but I gotta think IFVs and APCs are needed badly also.

And can extrapolate that overpayment by this whole insane war for Russia. The only person who gains anything is Putin by getting enough victory to survive, literally. The other 140M russians are all losing more every day.

Just goes to show, folks here know their military history

interesting strategic choice. They would regain territory and have an easily defensible line which they could hold w weak units. This would free up resources for elsewhere. Of course, same goes for Russia so hopefully can trap some RU forces north of the river. Maybe another reason for choosing to attack here is simply that it seems possible and not particularly risky. UKR units would gain experience in offensive action w/o facing the power of the best RU units.

Mos Def some Elvis bait there. In a good way

Would the Kyiv offensive occur before or after they conquer Finland and Poland? Seems only slightly less insane than the other offensives the kremlin has been threatening.

LLF, that is a most excellent post. Had me grinning ear to ear. And so perfectly fits current situation so far w Belarus. So did Franco really do that?

and that Izyum salient is not far from being cut off by attacking north of the city. Wouldn't that be fun?

very very interesting..... So we know UKR likes to wear out RU offensive power via these defend/delay operations and interdicting LOCs. The RU arty is making that very painful but it still seems to be working. And we believe that UKR is planning for counteroffensive(s), somewhere. So an interesting thing about this sector is that RU is basically fixing in place its own forces which won't be able to quickly withdraw to other sectors that might get attacked. Let's say I wanted to attack some other sector, like NE of Kharkiv or south toward Melitopol. It would be very nice if, w minimal forces and only a tactical risk, I could keep RU main power concentrated in some other area. If I retreat from the Lysychansk salient, then RU can claim their little victory and redeploy all that combat power, especially the artillery, in other areas. If I attack somewhere else and RU moves all the protecting artillery and its best units, then I've got opportunities in the area of this salient itself. So this makes some sense to me.

at some point, I could picture the "free UKR" forces moving into Belarus and the Belarus military simply refusing to fire on them. If the officers in Belarus army believe they will get to keep their jobs in new government, they might just not fight at all. It would be like Castro walking into Havana (preferably w/o a new Castro, of course). Power, as we all know, ultimately only exists if the people w the weapons actually choose to fire them.

Great posts, everyone. What a crew this is! I am seeing a couple things: 1. it doesn't matter very much whether RU has BMP1,2,3 or whatever. It doesn't matter very much whether it's terminators or t62s or what flavor of T72. What matters the most seems to be artillery. It's the only thing allowing RU to make its advances. And it's the main thing that will keep it safe when it digs in to hold all its stolen territory. So what matters most for Ukraine is having the ability to reduce RU artillery via counter battery and interdicting LOCs to bring up the shells at the req'd rate. So the donor nations need to send MLRS, switchblades, etc, anything that can reduce RU arty. 2. Lukashenko is going to attack? Even more reason for donor nations to pitch in more. I personally hope Poland will have had enough and will hit Lukashenko's columns if they cross the border (hey, let a fella dream, OK?) 3. The foot dragging of various powers on military supplies (Germany, others) is frustrating as hell. But why aren't they at least making up for it by sending non-lethal aid? Rations, medical supplies, tents, etc? The damn least thing they could do.

wow that's some laughable stuff. And this yard gnome thinks he scares Poland?

ah, was a Spanish Instalaza that did it. Good to see Spain's aid making a difference.

The map shared here via MonkeyKing's post is always great for my mental health. "OMG the RU is in Lyman! OMG they have moved beyond Popasne!" Oh wait, That is a pretty darn small chunk of territory. The only significant UKR loss would be if their units get trapped and captured. Ah, feeling better. Looking at local situation tends to make things seem more serious. Meanwhile, AKD shared a post showing UKR video of destroyed BMP. The thing I noted was that the UKR soldiers drove up in a civilian SUV. I keep wondering why we haven't sent a gazillion humvees & other light vehicles. Anything that could at least stop an AK round or light shrapnel would be better than driving around w a door panels that couldn't stop anything.

good riddance. It's one thing to be forced to fight by Russian army. It's another thing to choose to fight to enslave a free nation. I hope there's lots more downed Russian jets to join him soon. Not a lot of movement in the lines today have been reported, I will assume that's mostly a good thing. Reports coming out about Russians inside Lyman. Did I miss something or is that about it for the news?

I hope he was poisoned w the same stuff that's been used for all the murders he's done of dissidents outside of Russia. That would make me smile and sing a happy song.

Kudos to France on this. Now send more please.

That's what I've been wondering also. Is Ukraine just weak? Or are they holding back for something bigger while trading small amounts of land for attrition of RU forces?

wait, Ukrainians aren't white anymore? Gosh, I can't keep up. First I find out the Irish, Italians, and Poles are now 'white', at least in the US, when they certainly weren't when they came to the US. And now the Ukrainians aren't white anymore? Does this White Club have any rules at all? It's almost as if they are just making it up on the fly -- but that would be ridiculous, right? I mean, if one's whole world view revolves around this I would expect their would be some scientifically solid basis, right? I mean, who would just do this based on nothing? That would be really stupid.

oh, forgot link that discussed the NYT editorial. There's a great UA soldier music video near the end, by the way. NOTE: LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT YOUR OWN PERIL https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5/22/2099655/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-not-interested-in-compromise-or-concessions-nor-should-it