danfrodo

Wow, LLF making some really good points about the current situation, bringing in to question a lot of the assumptions that many of us believe. Well done, LLF. Time will tell whether UKR is running Bakhmut this way on purpose, meaning conserving forces for elsewhere, later, in exchange for high RU losses and expenditures of arty shells -- Or whether there's some fundamental weakness in UKR forces. We won't know for a while it seems. There's a cold front coming late this week, but it takes a few days for the ground to get really solid, so the freeze has to last long enough to allow time for some useful operations, at least a week I'd think. I certainly agree w LLF on the point that UKR is going to have to grind the RU forces out of their holes. It's going to require hard ground fighting, hopefully against poorly supplied unmotivated mobiks, but still will require ground combat.

dang, I should've known you were a Vox & tele guy, that explains a lot, in a good way . I am with ya on the tele. I don't have an actual tele but two of my guitars you wouldn't know weren't teles from the sound. AC15, mix of good & cheap pedals -- just picked up a nice keeley compression pedal. No wah wah in your rig? for shame, how does one get super funky w/o the wah? I picked up a vox bobcat s66 a year ago. Super cool vintage sound. Black SG. So you have gone through an Angus Young phase, I presume? Now I just need more dang time for CM. All day computer simulation work fries my brain so it's hard to do more simulation ,even for fun, most nights. Steve's new post promises lots of new stuff this year and I have only scratched the surface of all the new RT content from Satan's Most Exalted Minion, GeorgeMC. He's killin' me! I gotta play smarter when I play his battles.

Combined arms bit in today's thread from this feller: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/29/2149941/-Ukraine-Update-Tanks-are-nice-but-it-s-combined-arms-that-can-change-the-game LOTS more AFVs coming to UKR than I expected. At least the infantry will be riding w a little more style than before.

I am not particularly religious, but I am hoping that if there is a heaven it looks like this. CM, guitar and football, all the time. Oh, wait, chance of me going to heaven? Zero. I am guessing hell has world of tanks, autotune, and syncronized swimming.

Thanks for the tip, Civdiv, I just added it to my library.

Phantom Captain is on a roll! He's got CW & RT battles going at same time it looks like. What RT scenario or campaign are these shots from?

He messed up on the last bit, it should say: Lie and say you are so good at destroying western weapons that you destroyed twice as many as exist. Then when new tanks arrive we already pre-destroyed them in last destroying operation and so they don't actually arrive.

now that is a good post. Good solid points presenting clearly and succinctly. Well done.

Hopefully this is just yet another tempest in a teapot. Someone says something foolish, it creates media excitement and RU propaganda has fun w it. This is the same RU propaganda that has already reported hundreds of completely false things way worse than what was said by German foreign minister. Wait a couple days and it will probably be completely forgotten.

This brings up that ongoing question we just can't answer. How much death can RU populace take before it flips? How much death is needed to overcome the propaganda? I understand that lots of these dead were criminals, but what about when it's family men dying at this crazy rate?

This is my theory 1A also. Which is why UKR will probably have multiple feints or optional paths based on RU reserve movement. Gonna be interesting though I am starting to think it's not until May.

It's almost as if the Baltic countries don't like Russia for some reason? I wonder why?

Great points, TheCapt. The only thing I'd differ w is that UKR has only made significant gains over well entrenched RU forces was in Kherson, where RU left because of logistics not because UKR shoved them out. But my point here is still irrelevant to the other points made by TheCapt. Which brings up the question about why does UKR want leo2s so badly? Maybe they have overly optimistic about what they would gain? I still think better IFVs can make a big difference. basically because upgrade in firepower & off road mobility.

Great take on the tank debate. I just want more better, don't really care which ones as long as they are more & better. My main hope is getting lots of IFVs to the infantry ASAP, w tanks coming later.

Seems China's dictator has realized he is killing the goose that lays golden eggs. Foreign companies now see China as an unreliable partner and many that can are moving to other countries. So it seems he's trying to backtrack some of his belligerence, at least that's what I've seen.

Dang it, now I have to hate him less. But I gotta give credit where credit is due, so here goes: THANK YOU, MITCH.

So a bunch of already violent traumatized inmates are sent to front for further trauma, subjagation & oppression, and are then set free in russian society. Seems like a good plan. The only better idea would be to let them take home their AKs.

wow, great stuff as always, Zeleban. So I have been assuming UKR lack of offensive is due mostly to mud. But maybe UKR is simply "not interrupting the enemy when he's making a mistake"? Maybe UKR has high enough advantage in casualties that it's better to kill RU in the open for now so he'll be weaker later?

Those of us excited about western AFVs of all sorts maybe aren't just stupid World of Tanks players, perhaps? Unless the UKR army command is same sort of stupid? They are asking for this stuff also, screaming for it. If this war goes into 2024 would you rather fight it w T64/72/BMP or w bradleys & Leo2s & abrams? We continually see UKR forces attacking w HUMMVs & MRAPs -- is that all just fine because we have great ISR & drones & precision arty? The ISR & precision is UKR critical advantage but they still need to actually fight for and hold ground w minimum of casualties. Kharkiv offensive was against a severely weakened front that basically had nearly nothing there. Kherson was difficult because enemy was well prepared. Kreminna/Svatove are also difficult, though mud maybe biggest factor. We all get that it will take time to get the systems (crews, unit training, logistics, maintenence) in place. But guess what? August & September are things that will most probably happen. Dropping grenades on mobiks from drones is lovely, but sooner or later that trench has to be taken. And there's gonna be lots more mobiks. Lots more. I remember some hack CEO in ~2006 we had saying "3d printing? that could take 5 years to pay off!". As if 5 years won't ever happen.

On UKR's lack of punching elsewhere, I am still thinking it's the dang mud? Option B is that UKR is actually weaker than we think. Option C is that UKR is waiting for RU to further degrade its artillery shell stockpiles? I dunno. I still think it's probably the mud.

I can picture an interesting debate on this. One side says why fight bloody attritional battle here? Other side says if we retreat we'll just be fighting same bloody attritional battle at the next town and there's too much mud for any major offensive right now and we're killing tons of RU guys.

Is real? as in not some older video? Do you think it's recent?

I don't see tank-tank battles as being the main advantage. The infantry needs support to beat up contested defensive positions full of mobiks, so I think infantry support will be the main usage. Sometimes the infantry needs to be able to counter RU IFVs & tanks. yes, they can do this with ATGMs but having some tanks in overwatch provides both infantry support and keeps the enemy armor at bay -- tanks & good IFVs will keep fighting when mortars & arty are landing while the infantry w ATGMs will be suppressed (or worse). I think it will keep attacks moving forward w alacrity.

May be bigger news than the tanks, oh my. If UKR has increasing artillery superiority RU is in serious trouble.

We should all learn from Der Zeitgeist, who throughout all this noise stayed calm and basically said "it'll happen, just be patient". Many of us, like me, were losing our minds and it's clear we should've just been more patient.