CHEqTRO

We know they run out of fuel due to the conversation with the civilians, which by theway, tell them that they should surrender as a lot of other russians have already done. In the case of Gostomel, they had a big follow-up drop, but, due to the fact that the Ukranian air defense was still up, decided to abort. This air defence will then go to keep being operative and shoot down two IL-76, presumably packed with paratroopers, some time ago this morning. A success in that operation would have allowed Russian forces to deploy a VDV regiment inside the Kyiv perimeter, and could have precipitated a quick fall of the capital. As of now, all attacks trying to breakthrought the defenses of the capital have failed. There are also more reports of logistic problem for the Russian army, albeit coming form the Ukranians, in the Sumy axis. They have failed to breaktrough in the direction of Mariupol as of yet, and also in the direction of Kharkiv. They have broken throught in the Kherson, but as of now that situtation has stabilized. They are pinning the Ukranian forces in the Donbass yes, but the possibilities of an encirclement get slimer any moment they fail to achieve a complete breaktrhought. EDIT: In regards to air superiority, the have achieved air advantage. However, considering the balance of forces and the russian "in paper" deep strike capabilities, they should have achieved complete air supremacy by now

Turkey does not border Russia. On the other hand, Russia unilateraly scrapped the INF treaty and positioned Nuclear weapon in Kaliningrad capabale of striking within minutes all of Europe, and in the border or a NATO country. If the russian want security guaranties, lets talk also some for us Europeans

The invasion, by the way, its going poorly. The russian are conducting an offensive as if this was still the 1980s. Very poor planing (The Hostomel airdrop was esentially a disaster), poor logistical support, they have failed to achieve air superiority, Ukranian armored formations are still able to freely manouver etc. Like I said yesterday, either we have severily overstimated russian capabilities, or they are holding back for something Also, there was a lot of propaganda regarding that the Ukranians were ethnically cleansing the russian speaking population, and that they would recive the Russian Army as heroes. That is not what we have been seeing:

Then there is more than just "they can put missiles near our borders", that was what I was saying The threat to Russia that Ukraine joins NATO resides in that they lose the capability to apply hard power to influence Ukraine, and that any attack into Poland would be meet with conventional strikes into staging grounds in Belarus and Rusiafrom Ukraine; from a military perspective. Ukraine was still not going to join NATO in like 10 to 20 years thought, even being optimistic (Germany and France would have always blocked such inclusion) NATO accesion of Ukraine was not a cause for the current Russian aggresion, at best it was a timer, a timer that still had a lot of time to run its course.

It is a BS reason because we would already have the capability to strike Moscow within 5 minutes, following the logic from Putin, from the Baltic states. I dont know why we should take Kremlin declarations at face value, when they were saying that they were not going to invade Ukraine, neither recognize the republics until like 5 days ago, along other series of lies. Putin and Lavrov are talking now of ""liberating"" Ukraine from its Nazi leadership, not about whatever BS "security guaranties" they wanted. So dont worry, you dont discomfort us, it would be just plain stupidity/ignorance to believe that that is the reason, and It has nothing to do with "emotions".

Not really, no. Like I said, the NATO high officials might feel compelled to approve tactical usage of nukes in such an eventuality, but mostly if they believe that there is a threat to Germany. Such a war will really be won or lost by Russia if they are able to break NATO in continental Europe. And the way to do so is by getting the germans to sue for peace by themselves and get them out of the alliance. They can do so without entering into german territory, just by threaten to actually do so, threat their industrial base with ballistic missiles, and offering them a return to normal trade relations. Wether the german state would accept or not, is doubtful. In case of the Germans sticking with NATO, the war will most likely end up in a phase similar to the one in Korea, with a very extensive DMZ. The loss of NATO in eastern Europe would not mean the collapse of neither France, England or the USA, so doubtfully they will approve a strategic nuclear exchange that would actualy entail the end of their countries in such an occurrance.

Nice to hear from you! Was starting to get a bit worried honestly. Hopefully you can get your family to safety, or at the very least, find some good shelter. Tomorrow it seems that area is going to get heated. I wish you the best.

Yeah I am not surprised by this action from the Russian army. Specially considering the sub-standard performance of the Russian Army till now. Putin is holding its true army back, either in case it needs to escalate against NATO, or to deliver a fatal blow to the spent Ukranians

Hahaha not a bad idea, even thought I highly doubt that we would see full strategic exchange, even if the situtation deteriorates a lot. Also, in reference to the video I posted earlier of the TOPOL-M ICBM, its important to note that technically they are moving to Moscow for the Victory Day parade. Althought the timing is definetively interisting (Most likely just the russians trying to create a little bit of panic, they do not need to move their ICBM to Moscow to be able to attack, well, any place on Earth, really)

They dont need that. Harsh economic sanctions are enough to seriously harm the russian capability to attack into their countries. Also, talking about sanctions: Cutoff of relations between NATO/EU and Russia inminent

It seems Russia is actually sending unexperience conscripts into battle in Ukraine. If this report is to be believed, they didnt even knew they were going to war. There is this video about an Ukranian woman arguing with a Russian soldier asking what are they doing in their city, and the guy respond that they are actually in execises. It is also worth noting that Russia has, as of yet, only employed around 30-50% of its forces deployed aloong the Ukranian border during the buildup. Also, it seems that they have failed in destroying key Ukranian infrastructure and the Ukranian air force and AA is still operative. You have to wonder why the Russians are conducting such a botched attack honestly. Also, the russians are sending a message...

Conventional warfare, atleast until they cross the Vistula, and threathen to cross the Oder. After that, maybe there is tactical nuclear use.

More cyberattacks....

Also:

Well, Ukraine represents around 10% of Russia GDP, so that would be nice to incorporate. Also, getting 40 million more people to tax and that can produce goods for your economy is not too bad. Ukranian farming is extremely important for European market, something that now Russia would control. Also its coal mines, making russian coal more valuable. Just as an example. Or maybe the plan its to just loot the Ukranian state to keep the Russian economy, and so its war machine operative for just a bit longer (Similar to the reason why the Germans went to war back in the 30s) Also, the economy of an state is represented by the capacity of such state to produce and consume goods. That its still relevant for a free market country or for a closed communist one. Something in the chain of production of the Russian economy must be disturbed or lacking. What, I dont know, but something that is sufficently problematic to provoque this course of action. There is also the complete shift in the balance of power in Europe, which leaves Russia in a better position to apply soft power, for example.

I think that the economy is always a big factor in this kind of decisions. Covid has been harsh to the Russian people, and so to its economy as well. Maybe the Covid pandemic was not the only cause for russian economic troubles, but just the final straw. The Russian economy has to have serious problems, at the least in the long term, if they are going in this direction, that I can assure you.

For the very least, it has been on the works since April 21. Most likely it was decided to act some time before that. My bet is that they were pushed into this direction by the economic downfall caused by Covid, among other things.

Yeah, they are the weakest link honestly. But I do not think they are going to be able to whitstand the combined pressure from all NATO/EU for too long. I would be surprised if they did, and more if the EU didnt take disciplinary action against it.

So it seems. (Told ya that when the germans accept applying sanctions, so will the italians , they still have to enact them thought, so lets see):

No idea really. Didnt take too much atention to the video. Meh, I disagree. The economic turmoil would be bad of course, but its not like we cant take countermeasures, both in the short and long term. We can get gas for the time being from the Americans, and oil from the Middle East. Long term we will have to start conducting Fracking on our shores and go the french way with nuclear energy. It would be harsh, but not catastrophic. Obviously, if they can avoid taking such action they are going to do so. Hence why the sanction has not being yet enacted. They are most likely hoping that the war ends without Kyiv falling, and they can get the suppossed outcome of a "Neutral" Ukraine. That would not disturb the balance in eastern europe too much. However its clear that the intention of Putin its, at the very least, regime change and taking control of all of central and eastern Ukraine. The problem with that, is that the security situation for Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states deteriorates drastically in such an eventuallity. These countries are going to seek some counter action to mantain somewhat the previous balance in Eastern Europe, both via economic sanctions and military deployment. Taking what it would be seen as Russian side, would push those countries more towards an exclusive alliance with the Anglo-American axis of NATO, rather than the European (Germany/France). Lets remember that this countries are supposedly deep on the german sphere of influence, but you have to keep them that way either via hard or soft power. Considering that the Bundeswher itself recognizes that it doesnt have the capabilities to conduct warfare, they only have their soft power. Lets also remember that the poles are also making moves outside of the EU, by signing an "alliance" with the UK and Ukraine. Its the german government ready to lose its influence in eastern europe, anger the americans (which are going to be the ones bringing the gas), and getting isolated inside of NATO, while esentially making themselves even more dependent to Rusia? I have my doubts. If the French had also being against the proposal I could see them trying to avoid it, but with the French also on board, I think once is clear that the Russians intend to fully take Ukraine they will go ahead with the sanctions. Like always, we will see. EDIT: Also, something tells me that the threats towards both Sweden and Finland today, both EU members, have pushed Berlin into the direction of applying sanctions

Like I said yesterday about sanctions, the germans will come around about applying heavy sanctions, specially now that Kyiv seems threatened.

Two comercial vessels hit by the Russian army in addition to the turkish one yesterday. These ones seems Romanian/Moldavan Edit: An image of the soldiers who resisted russian attacks by themselves against all odds on Snake Island and gave their lives for it. A salute to these heroes.

Also people are talking as if Ukraine has already lost becasue there are Russians troops at Kyiv suburbs. Kyiv was always going to be reached by Russian forces with relative ease due to its position geograhically. Now they have to take it. Lets wait and see how the battle develops. It looks grim but is too early to say that all is lost.

The line at Kherson has been breached true, yet there is not confirmation neither that the region or the city that bears it name has fallen fully to russian invaders.

Putin is ****ing delusional. Also: Are they going to start military operations against Finland now?