CHEqTRO

Gotta justify that martial law I guess.

Video about the opinion of these particular russian soldiers about their invasion. I wonder how they will react once they return home, if they in fact do, and see what has been the posture of its State towards this war. This """lesson" published by the Russian ministry of Education is some of the more Orwellian **** I have seen in a long time. Supposedly its going to get integrated, or atleast the general idea, in the curriculum of Russian schools:

I disagree. Two years ago the azeris were able to achieve full air superiority over the Nagorno Kharabak, to devastating effect to the Armenians. Plus, the way the Azeris planned and carried out that operation was probably something more resembling a "modern" war than what we are seeing now from the Russians.

In fact, further reading seems to indicate that it crashed on the ground, rather than on the Black Sea, so it was most likely an accident: Will edit the previous post accordingly

No Russian involvment on this case. It seems it crashed on land, so hardly it was caused by the Russians.

They are probably going to do the famous "escalate to de-escalate". The stratetigic situation has completely deteriorated for the Russians, probably to the point of unsustainability, and a long war against Ukraine with the full pressure of European/NATO lend lease and economic sanctions is not viable, not even in the short term. They will probably will seek some form of re-balancement via concession or direct military action from the wst, so the strategic situation gets in their favour. How are they going to do it, I have no idea, but I would not be surprised if things get tense in the Georgian border and in the Baltic sea one of these days. Well, in some way they are going to have to try and control all those conscripts that were lied into war, and now, whatever is the result of it, are going to start trickling back to their homes. I am sure they have their strong opinions about Putin and this adventuro into Ukraine. Thats a long-fuse bomb for the regime right there. Also, in reference to what I said above, its probably part of the whole escalation process. That is, of course, if they go ahead with the enacment of martial law. As of right now we dont have solid proof that they are going to do it. (Althought Martial law was the 4 trending search topic in Russian google today)

Seems like the Russian Aviation decided to comunicate on open channels. Here you can watch supposed Su-35S and their AWACS coordinating sorties into Ukraine from Belarus:

More threats to Sweden and Finland. Also, the Georgians are going to file for EU membership as well: And the best for the end, there is a possibility that Russian authorities may enact martial law this friday: Edit: The Russians have expelled the US ambassador: I had also read this morning, althought I cannot find it right now, that Poland is planning to cut relations with Russia. Dont know how true is that.

I also think that they are likely operational areas, thought in case that they in fact are post war planned borders, Crimea would not be united with the Donbass. Crimea is "oficially" part of the Russian Federation, while the republics are, technically, their own independent states. He is not going to "give back" Crimea, as Kruschev did.

I suppose they have a contingency plan in case of US intervention. Isn´t the 1st Cavalry Division actually deployed in Poland?

Did Lukhasenko just leaked the Russian plans for Ukraine?: To note, that supossedly the map shows a possible partition of Ukraine (althought maybe those are military operational areas, rather than post war planned borders), and a thrust into Transnistria/Moldavia

The EU has, reportedly, accepted Ukraine aplication. It will still take some time for them to oficially join, thought : Regarding Russian planing, It seems that Russian comms were not coded. This thread compiles some of what was heard during the assault to Kharkiv. Some parts are devastating really:

Something interesting that happened some hours ago: It seems that a Russian IL76 tried to make a mad dash to Kaliningrad. It didnt work, and is being scorted by Polish Jets to Bratislava right now. Edit: Here you can see It landing in Slovakia

Let me correct it for you then "Y es que en el mundo traidor, nada hay verdad o mentira, todo es según el color, del cristal con el que se mira". It was written by Ramón de Campoamor

No planes from Bulgaria thought: Understandable, considering the composition of the Bulgarian airforce

70 planes for Ukraine... That is like a third of the full inventory of aircraft, of all types, that they had pre-war. It seems that Ukranian pilots are in Poland and from there they will fly the planes to Ukraine

Operationaly they might still win in Ukraine, that much is true. Strategically? He is losing and very badly

Exactly. Thats why they all look so distressed on those meetings. They have lost all form of economical and conventional deterrence towards the West ( And China really). The nukes is the only thing that they have left at this point

Do not worry, in case of nuclear war the firsts to nuke the chinese will be the russians themselves.

I didnt meant tanks exactly, but rather as a metaphor of their military units. The more military units are tied up on Ukraine, and getting destroyed there, the less that can be used to attack Poland. Right now making a move on Poland or Turkey would be suicidal; the more they keep fighting Ukraine, the more sucidal it gets. That fact is probably not lost on EU and NATO military planners, and as such, they can increase the pressure on Russia, as the threat of retaliation is low. One of the reasons why Europe is acting so decisively is because the Ukranians are resisting the Russian onslaugth. If the Ukranians had folded up, sanctions would probably had been more limited initially, and the thought of giving weapons to the Ukranians would have been dismissed. I mean, you have the example of the closure of the Bosphorus. Turkey has gone ahead with that decision because the threat of Russian retaliation is extremely low.

Yep, and as more tanks are sent to be destroyed on Ukraine, the lesser is the threat (conventionally speaking) to NATO countries, and the more aggresive the EU and NATO can get with sanctions and with weapon deliveries to the ukranians. The russians would be wise to accept whatever peace agreement (as long as it allows them to save face to their public) the Ukranians are giving them, and not allow this to keep spiriling down into disaster.

More on the closure of the Bosphorus:

Well, the reports of abandoned tanks, of stranded columns, and of Russians abandoning their vehicles keep on getting more numerous. So the general situation is definitively not great. It seems that the russians themselves botched the logistics of the operation. Still this attacks are definitively not helping. Also, that the Ukranians are able of using drones to strike deep rear areas, shows that either their air defenses are plain bad, or that their employment is being incompetent (or maybe the TB2/their operators is just that good, who knows)

More TB2 strikes have been released. One interesting one is the last clip were a fuel train is blowed up. The Ukranians sure are not going to make the supply situation any easier:

Some of them are already doing that by themselves...: The face of Shoigu yesterday said it all, really.