Homo_Ferricus

This is very sad, but looks like Avdiivka battle comes to the end and, alas, not in our favor (not counting about two divisional vehicle sets, which Russians lost here). 
During last three days Russians captured quarry area on the NE of the town and gained foothold in dachas and first streets of northern part of Avdiivka. Yesterday they broke through overpass bridge in front of coke plant. Also reportedly for last two days Russians dropped on Avdiivka about week amout of gliding bombs. 
110th mech.brigade, defending the town itself is completely exhausted, drone operators almost don't sleep by days - FPV attacks and Mavicks maintaining resistance in conditions of artillery shells shortage. But bad weather in last days limited their flights and this immediately gave opportunity to the enemy, having overhelming advantage in manpower. Russians continuously replenish own troops with fresh meat, they go forward, die and next meat come behind of them, death conveyor is working, but Russians achive own goals in this way. 
Our artillery near Avdiivka keep almost full silence already four days - no shells. So 110th brigade command moved to positions as riflemen almost all rear services soldiers, because no more opportunity except FPVs and contact clashes to hold this horde. 
But not only ammunition shortage led to this situation. 
- OTUV "Tavria" command (gen.Tarnavskyi) again repeated all mistakes of Bakhmut defense. Expecting that Russians will assault stronpoints (like factories in Bakhmut and coke plant in Avdiivka) directly, when they use enough flexible tactic and after first fails attacked on flanks, made many bogus small assaults to confuse about real attack directions
- passivity of OTUV "Tavria" comamnd, as far as before October, when Russians recently captured Krasnohorivka and began to fill this northern "balcony" above Avdiivka with troops. 
- no reserve fortifications on flanks of Avdiivka. Only when Russians crossed railways, we started to establish some positions, but in conditions of unstable weather when frosts change themeselves with rains and mud it was belated idea
- manpower lack and fatigue. 110th brigade two years fights in this place and never was rotated for rest in full composition. Other units, who were moved here from Zaporizhzhia front also weren't rested and replenished after summer clashes, when Russians continously were replenishing own units. 
- weak air defense capabilities. For whole Avdiivka battle Russians lost only one aircraft. 
The map of northern part of Avdiivka for 5-6th of Feb. Avdiivka is on 90 % is private 1-2 storey cottages, only on the south east from coke plant there is small "Khimic" ("Chemestrian") micro-district with multistorey urban type buildings for coke plant employees. These are so-called "Old Avdiivka" and "New Avdiivka"
 

Mobilisation needs to happen sooner rather than later. Not acting because its unpopular is just brushing issues under a rug until the issue spills out and someone pays for it, either because mobilised dont get full training to hurry them to the front or formations that are spent and need rest having to stay despite worsening performance and dropping morale because russia outnumbers everywhere in men, machine and ammo.

Or with a Russian spin on events:
General Tatarenko bravely personally intercepted an incoming missile and prevented it hitting the airfield. He is said to be lightly injured. 

If you are watching the back and forth between Zelensky and Zaluzhny today, I would warn against the way in which most commentary is treating if as if it's a football game...as they do much of what has happened in the war so far. Shashank Joshi at the Economist is going to drop an article soon that looks more deeply at the reasons and the forces motivating the move. I would recommend it in advance. 

Isn't it great that we live in a time where third-person plural possessive can spark social controversy?  

The one explanation I can come up with is that it is not really about hitting civilians but about forcing Ukraine to defend the cities. Those highly capable long range systems like Patriot and Iris-T could otherwise be used at the front and probably prevent Russian aviation from using gliding bombs etc.

UKR drone operator spotted with thermal camera wounded UKR soldier in grey zone. Because of evacuation team can't reach him, operators in next fly dropped him hot tea and a note "Pal, drink it and crawl follow the drone". They pointed him a way back. Soldier was resqued
 

As a graphics programmer for a major studio who's worked on some AAA titles (Yes! This is my moment to be a grognard about something on here!), I think particle collisions like this are actually one of a handful of graphical effects that has actually gotten a lot more difficult to do over time.

To my mind, the best implementation of this was the original Halo, which came out over twenty years ago. Spark particles from bullet impacts on world geometry would actually correctly deflect off of other world geometry in their path. It was subtle, but really cool. I've obviously never seen their rendering code (I don't work for Bungie), but I think the combination of very simple geometry (by today's standards) and the fact that they still processed their world geometry into BSP trees for culling let them do accurate particle collisions for relatively low cost.

Interestingly, the remastered Anniversary Edition, which came out a decade ago and has much more detailed world geometry and a modern (at the time) game engine, doesn't do particle collisions. Sparks and stuff just pass right through geometry like they do in pretty much every other modern game.

Very true; on the surface it looks not nice for Russia and partly certainly is. The catch is that from Russians perspective, SNG countries where large part of migration ended is not abroad; their status is more akin to what Portorico is for Americans. Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan etc. are considered integral parts of Russian World, called blizneye zarubezye - Near Abroad; these people are hunkering there down for some time, often living off the savings (worth to check their responses- significant part live in a limbo, without plans for long-term immigration). * Others already work digitally, intentionally or not, for the benefit of their country, doing legal an illegal businesses along the borders or setting start-ups in neighbour countries. Naturally Kremlin would love to see them back home, but it is also not some catastrophy if they stay there for several years.
More important for our considerations than sheer numbers is perhaps their attitudes to Putin regime and if they bound together against it...we are talking about predominantly draft doggers, who if asked surprisingly often have nothing against the Kremlin as such, though they do complain about corrupted officials (check surveys below). Russian diaspora, including old one, seems to be overall in 50/50 in favour of it, depending on the country. If so, they are rather proudly displaying their flags, happy that Mother Russia is again opposing entire world. Note also absence of any significant emigree opposition structures (Kasparov is a joke), political parties or nascent military formations, except several hundreds of literal Neo-Nazis/anarchists from RVC, who twice raided northern borders.
No material for Bay of Pigs here or some invisible, widespread subversion by CIA, looking from that angle. If Russia should start breaking any moment, we should first see increased ferment in diaspora, who is always well informed how things stands in country of origin.
 
Also, If you visit side the the researchers who conducted this survey; note Belarus is coloured white...almost no polls there, as data are difficult to obtain despite Mińsk is known to be hosting number of Russians. This is shadowy migration of better connected draft-doggers who "suddenly" started working there, often coming from Moscow elite itself. Numbers unknown, perhaps low tens of thousands.
https://outrush.io/eng
* Also folks check last link from Carnagie, it has several polls relating attitudes to war that many of you may find interesting.
People? About their personal, small lives first and foremost. Public sphere shrinked so much in 30 years that opportunism may even run across families; note those women who willingly send their own husbands to meatgrinder for extra pay-offs. Also for anyone familiar with this culture, lack of influence of organzations like Comitee of Mothers of Soldiers or similar, that were part of wars in Afganistan and Chechnya is very telling.
Political decision-makers? Struggling with giant imperialistic ego.
 
All true- Russia can be beaten like any other country; it was in the past. There is a question of means applied, though; I simply don't see them being here in sufficent weight to cause widespread social ferment, and we are heating this kettle for quite long time.
There is nothing supernatural here- Ukraine is fighting largest country on planet, member of Security Council and former superpower, determined in its imperialistic urge to finish this thing or at least leave with something valuable (be it even sole destruction of Ukraine). It's uneven fight from day one, even with Western help.
Let's also not jump into hyperbolies, usually they are not helpfull...note that we also (me including) planned here campaigns of AFU in Crimea, expected Russian civilian air fleet falling from the skies, Russia bankcupcy long time ago, some even predicted "nations" breaking free from Kremlin. Nothing of this sort happened either. Everybody is wrong from time to time, even best specialists in their fields.

I don't see any serious signs of societal crack as yet. And partly our differences in perception is cultural thing- for example, from my observation Westerners tend to take Russians openly grudging, cursing and complains as signs of them breaking just in a moment...while this is normal and not even particulary alarming state of things there. Even in military.
Now about Prig...yes and no. Prigozhin "coup" was treated by larger part of population as "war at the top"- struggle between and within Kremlin elites. It was dent in their system of power and authority to be sure, but not societal crack we are talking about here- that means, it was not manifestiation of aversion to this dumb war. Opposite, actually; it is clear that A.D. 2024 many segments of society a posteriori read it as warning of what will happen if MoD will not wage this war effectivelly enough. Plus it was self- made by Putin himself, giving way too much space to Wagner. Note also how much more effective Russian military appear to be when tsar finally, after one bloody year, decided to silence Girkinoids and similar guys. It was also Putin's personal mistake.
Yup, these are even different civilizations, with very different views on individual, collective, hierarchy etc. ...and yet, here we are: they probbaly tanked 350 k casualties, excluding wounded....and they still recruit actual volunteers and support for war, both official and unoficial, seems to be high or at least stable.
In my personal opinion such dynamic of slaughter in unnecessary, conventional war would likely cause serious political troubles even in modern China with its 1400 mlns of atomized consuments and likely break North Korea (totalitarian regimes tend to be more stiff in this regard)... but this is subjective theory.
It probably can. But not under these sanctions. At least - not in timespan that would be acceptable for Ukraine. And that is putting aside big question of what "breaking" actually means, because it is understood very differently, depending where somebody stands.
Like above- people in muscovia grudge constantly; it is character, way of communication and even way of orienting social hierarchy. I would be very surprised if we see any real discontent in the form of true social pressure on Putin to end this war. And even then there are ways of dealing with it by Kremlin. Given ubiqiuty of state controlling and even shaping formal organziations (by traditional ways...spies), only true form of discontent could be spontaneus combustion of emotions in one place - that means, traditional, unpolitical riots. These are usually very local and can be redirected toward scapegoats very easily...like nationalists complains were directed at Gerasimov.

The war is not always victories. The enemy is strong, cruel and learn on own failures. It was big mistake of our state-propaganda to describe Russians so-long as "pathetic chmobiks", "alcoholics" and "stupid". Yes, they have stupid command, but Russian capabilities to survive in aggressive and deadly environment, their savvy, directed to survival, their natural aggression, fatalism and fanaticism make them very dangerous enemy. 

Ten years in historical re-enactment taught me to have balanced point of view, cutting off obviuos propaganda and lie.
Since years this war will become a heritage of history. And researchers will discover many hard things about which shouldn't talk officially right now.   

Haiduk, I have so much respect for you because you are always balanced in your opinion and share even horrible videos showing your countrymen getting killed, no matter how bad it must feel. That's very unique. I hope the best for you and your country.

That is because Hollywood has likely warped your understanding of what SOF does.  It can be argued that the core strategic functions of SOF are sensor, signal, weapon and integration. In this context UKR SOF are signalling.  By removing a few Wagnerites from the gene pool in Sudan Ukraine is signalling that it can 1) project power internationally, and 2) will take this war international as well.  This sends a message to both Russia and the rest of the world.
The overall effect is that Russian forces are not safe anywhere and are all fair game.  This will give Russia pause as now its frontline is no longer Zaporizhya, it is wherever Russian military (or paramilitary) are standing. This projects enormous un-decision onto an opponent.
It is working because we are all talking about it.

I don't think it's about bashing; the guy posts short, often vapid but very controversial and antagonistic opinions and "interpretations".  On a discussion board such as this one the options are either to flat out ignore him or to pull him up and call out his BS.  Doing the latter is not "bashing".  If he really is a good-faith poster who's going through a tough time it may even help him to see his doomsaying argued against in a rational way.
 
This is more the kind of info it would be useful to hear more about:  What direction is the Ukrainian war effort taking and are there more effective types of help that the US/EU can provide to a maturing combatant nation, rather than just rolling old tanks over the border to be blown up?
 

Exactly my point.  Bakhmut fell (kinda) and the lines have not moved an inch in sum.  We just posted a bunch of "facts" (you know those things becoming scarce here) on this couple days ago - the ground re-taken by Ukraine and taken by Russia equals zero sum.  But by all means lets make a tiny Ukrainian country town freakin Verdun.
You keep pointing to Russian mechanized success as a reason to push more mechanized at the UA...and the evidence of all of last year simply does not support it.
Mr Cluster. Mr FPV drone (which you said were all EW'd), Mr. Mortar and sniper fire, are right next to Mr ATGM and Mr Landmine and Mother C4ISR.  It does not matter how one approaches the front right now...if you do it in any sort of mass, you are going to die.  Just because the RA did "Passchendaele" on some slag heap of zero operational significance is not a reason to double down on mech right now.  It will not work.  The UA CHOD has admitted such.  The support Ukraine needs is something else.  
A MIC that will be self-sustaining for a decade because that is how long this war may last.  The UA failed last summer.  They had the kit and the training and outright failed to move the ball.  The lines went no where.
Investing for the long term makes sense.  Throwing more mountains of steel at the problem, which we are going to run out of eventually is not the best option right now.  This will need to come with a graduated shift of support from tactical to strategic - no one ever said "cut off".
Ukraine needs tanks and IFVs to sustain its defence.  It needs something else entirely for offence, and we are not even sure what that is.  And it needs a MIC to sustain a war that could last much longer.
But hey. Let's all freak out.  

Yes, and the destroyed M-Tac equipment factory in the center of Kyiv (the most protected place in Ukraine) is evidence of this. 
Yes, but what about 2024, because if I’m not mistaken, it’s already 2024 outside the window? or are we still living in 2022?

As opposed to infantry in IFVs getting shelacked kms out?  How many times do we need to see this before we realize we need better ideas?  Frankly moving over open ground on foot look and feels like a better way to go. 
Are we talking about this Avdiivka crisis?

The one where as of yesterday afternoon after losing hundreds of vehicles the RA is poised to crush UA defence...on the same damn lines it has been sitting on for weeks?
This, after endless videos of Russian soldiers getting grenade dropped and freakin chased around trees.  Your deduction after all that is "Gee we really need more tanks and IFVs"?  We need unmanned systems that are resistant to jamming...another thing a Ukrainian defence industry could master.
As opposed to what?  Several thousand armored vehicles coming from German factories in the next 1-2 years?  So Ukraine can move by inches.  Talk about "staying grounded".  We had better figure out a swarm of UAS and fast because it is likely the only way to break this deadlock.
I have no problem in sustaining the conventional suite that the UA has to hold the lines but doubling-down on failures that the Ukrainian CHOD has openly declared - namely that this war is freezing for reasons other than "enough tanks"- is really dumb at this point in the war.

How else would they have been able to take the heap and critically threaten the only way in and out of Avdiivka, that was serious enough to switch from "counter-offensive through winter" to "lets redeploy it all to stop russian advances"?
With infantry running over open ground? 
There were 100% a bunch of jammers up there too, so drones are basically out in precision attacks on entranched positions. 
Go around it? 
The same dilemma exists for the UA and russia. Just russia was able to capture this position, somehow with useless tanks, which essentially ended UAs offensive indefinetely.
Its nice talking about PGM and all that fancy AI drone swarm stuff. Please stay grounded with reality of what the UA has and what it doesnt and what countries in the EU could possibly supply within 1-2 years, when stuff like Taurus is off limits. I dont expect a German drone factory supplying a million suicide drones, do you? Without US support, what is going to defend the UA drone factory when all SAM systems are already insufficient to cover not even the frontline but simply the back of the country?
Denouncing me for 'defeatism', when half the forum here was still in the rosy bubble saying the offensive will break through any day now and republicans are just bluffing.
I remember also being talked to like that when criticising the "recon in force" of driving 15 bradleys (was that 20% of all stock at the time?) Into the same minefield.

I've backed off posting a little cuz work, probably to the relief of some here.
But this piece, while not directly war related, is interesting, as China's ability to innovate, refine and mass-manufacture/export is a key megatrend to keep tracking soberly (i.e. without either exaggerating or dismissing):
https://tphuang.substack.com/p/ai-approach-differences-between-china
People often comment that China has turned to mature chip fabs as a result of October sanctions. I would say they always had plans to massively expand mature chip productions. The market for these “mature chips” in future AI controlled consumer electronics product and machines are enormous...
China is at the forefront of consumer electronics and robotics product, so its focus on LLMs are driven by how to make its consumer electronics and robotics product smarter. So, making hard tech better.
American tech companies are the leaders of search, e-commerce, social media and apps. So, its focus on LLMs are focused on how to make these soft tech products better...
As many have observed here, the Ukraine war already has the makings of a test-bed and laboratory for next generation miltech, much like the Spanish Civil War (albeit without the Condor Legion/Italian CTV).
PS: I'm not suggesting 'glorified autocomplete' (LLM) extrapolates directly to fully autonomous drones or slaughterdogs. But the general focus of Chinese industry on using AI programming to enhance the performance of physical devices was an interesting insight to me.

At one point, Leo reports from point J that an assault group has attacked them from the graveyard. Exactly the same route as we took at night. It was 15-30 meters to the house. I give the order from point P to move forward to the crew of Myrny with PKM and Murah, who has already pulled into the street. With table fire, they will turn all bad Russians into good ones in a couple of minutes. At some point, a shot comes from Leo, stop shooting, you're just shooting at us. Costs of flanking fire.
They contact me from the headquarters, by radio. They say repeat what points your people are standing on. I break down: "I ****ing call everything by points (not J and P, but those names of points that are encrypted at the headquarters). Why don't you just follow my explanations. I'm a ****ing platoon commander and I've been shot."
Then there remains the most insane task of dragging the wounded across the rail. On the one hand, next to the crossing point, I give the order to take the position of a duo with PKM Myrny and Sokol. From our side, I ask to take the position of a couple of Archaeologist people. In case of bad situations, for crossfire. Jackson appoints those who will carry the seriously wounded. The first to cross are those who can walk without help. Little by little, the medical center begins to fill up with my wounded soldiers and Poltava boys. By that time, I was almost speechless. The voice was broken into a hoarse voice. The bandage was pressing on the artery on the neck and on the broken bones, and painkillers no longer helped, but I didn't want to drink anymore in order not to lose concentration. I scraped my feet on the floor in pain.
Jackson came with the last wounded. I report to the company commander that everyone has been taken out - take them away. We
sat down with Jackson to talk. I say if the company commander demands to hold on again, take the people to the railway. It will no longer be possible to hold this position, we have neither ammunition nor water. Moreover, the counterattack failed. As it will later become known, the Raccoon car will be hit with an ATGM when it tries to drive away. Delivery of supplies by road will no longer be available. I remember trying to say something in support of Jurist, but he didn't understand where he was at all. It seems he was shot in the stomach. I thought he was going to die.

Disappearing among the buildings, sitting down so that his back was covered by the building and placing his rifle in front of him, he began to wait. After some time, the guys came after me and took me to a nearby street where they set up a medical center. The doc (not the guy who gathered from the point without warning) kindly gave me a new tamponade, began to take painkillers, and put a bandage on top. At that moment, it became clear over the radio that the counterattack had failed. After being kicked, the boys from Kraken retreated.
At this time, position A began to be destroyed by direct fire. Two 300. After some time, one 200. a boy from Poltava was hit in the neck by a fragment. The boys asked to retreat.
The company commander yelled for them to mount lower. So that you understand, from point A down to point J there was just a slope, and the houses were already destroyed - without trenches, it was already real madness.
In the meantime, an armored personnel carrier "Nine" flew into Sil, it will be the last armored personnel carrier that will be able to ride here. Jackson tried to explain to the company commander that there was nothing there. Do not neglect personal reconnaissance. Maviks and maps do not help, if you have not walked in this area.
Realizing that a little more and it will most likely turn into an unorganized retreat. I took a deep breath, grimacing in pain. I took the walkie-talkie and told the company commander:
"There is no position there. It will not be possible to gain a foothold and hold on to that point. I take all the responsibility on myself, we align on J-P Street.” Came out on the walkie-talkie on Nine "Evacuation minus. I'm staying.”
 
Video - "It's my turn to be holed. This is Doc, he's stitching me up.."

I gathered my combat team and loaded them with ammunition, we are going to kill the enemy group in the area of the railroad tracks. We sneak along the street between points J and P. A man comes out of one of the houses, we briefly exchange words. He says that no one entered his street. Not bad. I say hide in the basement, because the business smells like ****. He hides back.
I send a couple of people to watch the railroad and send a couple forward to check the farthest house standing on a hill under the cover of a machine gun. The yard of the house is clean. We pull into the yard and begin to cover the sectors. The house is located on a hill and it controls the entrance to the railway line, as well as the entrance to the village. We sit down and start waiting.
Meanwhile, the Kraken's counterattack begins (Kraken - a separate intelligence and subversive unit of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine). An artillery duel is taking place all around. The machine gun begins to work at point B. At this moment I receive a report - Jurist 300 (wounded). Appointing East as senior on the point, taking Jackson and Foma with me and going to inspect point J to understand the situation and appoint a new senior. Between the two points there is a street and a small wasteland with dry grass. While we are moving, the mortars are pinpointing the point with the bastards to fire at them.
After the situation with Muraha (was wounded by friendly fire before that), I swear at the mortars:
" - But you won't hit where you need to. Here, everyone is standing too close together." They are offended.
"- Let's see. Make me take back my words"
They put a shell right in the house with the bastards.
" - Oh ****, I take my words back."
We start moving across the field. Bullets whistle when we run over. The territory is shot, but it doesn't matter. Jurist
got a lot of shrapnel on his legs and his second number too. Both were bandaged. The Professor (another conscript) was sitting next to them, he supports the boys with a calm voice, and at the base he was usually the most intimidating...
I am appointing an evacuee group of the healthiest guys from Poltava. I take PKM myself. The plan is as simple as three pennies. At first I run across the wasteland, I with a machine gun and two samurai who came with me. Then we shoot so intensively that none of the scumbags even stick their noses out. The evacuee team is running and we are "riding into the sunset". What could have gone wrong?
 
 

No longer undressing, I hide in the basement and kill myself for a couple of hours. By morning, the frost gradually recedes, and the sun, which shines so wonderfully, does not come out. A leaden gloomy sky completes the ****ing layout on the battlefield.
We are preparing without haste. Carefully. The battle will clearly be for our lives. While I'm preparing the group, a report comes from the Archaeologist boys that the bastards are attacking from their side of the village and one group has penetrated the railway. Damn, I'm already in full circle judging by the reports. ****ing company commander. A helicopter is working in the background.
I move my group to point C. I take out Poltava boys to replace my boys with whom I plan to attack. In addition, I select two of the most experienced fighters from Poltava to join my group. While moving between the points, the SPG with the tank starts shooting. The sense of fear is already so dulled that I walk at full speed without paying attention to the explosions. One of the explosions a few tens of meters away sends a fragment in my direction. He passes right in front of my nose. I feel the heat on my skin and realize that a little more and my face would be ripped off. Yes, a typical ****ing mistake. Indifference is the flip side of panic in war. I concentrate and begin to fall through the force when I hear a whistle.

I took the commander of a platoon of boys from Poltava and gave him three more boys, I set up an ambush in the house of G on the flank. My forces are too stretched and anything is possible. I instruct them to work from the middle of the room (letting the bastards get closer) across one room of G's house. The factor of surprise and all that, we throw bed nets on the windows for camouflage. In the background, the machine gun starts firing again at point A, and reports are being made that guys in camouflage uniforms are already advancing. The games are over.
Video 1 - "I am not a coward at all, but it seems to me that we are completely surrounded"
Video 2 - "Here are my stormtroopers, the fiercest guys, and we're going to kill mother****ers"

Video 1 - chill out between battles on D2
Video 2 - Working Muraha with Johnny