Kinophile

Unfortunate choice, in relation to invasions of Russia... 😛

This article may explain an increase in Russian ISR:
Russian Shahed-136 With Camera, Cellular Modem Could Be A Big Problem For Ukraine (twz.com)
Co-pilot summary
 

All america literally needs to do is make shells. Buy shells. Just make some goddamn artillery ammunition. Just buy some shells from a 3rd party, stuff them into a C-5 or a cargo ship and send them to Europe. And yet for months, months we have simply been unable to.
Disgraceful. There is literally no evidence that certain someone who benefits from this situation will should he be elected, not change this stance of non-assistance. This entire fiasco is due to him not pushing for this to be passed in the first place. This isn't a case of stuff that is in short supply, or needs to be hoarded (the money to buy the shells is the money to open more production lines!!!!!!), it is simply for one reason.

Truly America is so stupid. We can't provide a tiny portion of our gdp to a cause most Americans are fine with, to which no American lives are at risk, to degrade the ability of a enemy, and strengthen our own standing in the world....and we are willingly throwing it away. Holy ****, why would any nation ally with us vs China.
We are starving our ally of life for literally no ****ing reason. No reason except as a favor to a certain someone. And no none of the flimsy excuses pass, most Americans, most senators, representatives support Ukraine or at least espouse sentiments to such.

UKR drones, attacked Ryazan' oil refinery were UKR developed "Lyutyi" ("Fury") drones (the second from above in right column). They very similar to Chineese Mugin-5, also used by Ukriane in strikes. By rumors this drone can fly on 1000 km and carry up to 75 kg of warhead. But real data unknown. 
Reportedly during the strike on Ryazan refinery were taken out two from four fractioning columns AVT-4 and AT-6, different by year outpit. Because of this Ryazan refinery lost 70 % of own output capabilities. Most of production of this refinery have been sending to Moscow oblast. Intersting that today was claimed about death of top-manager of "Lukoil" company Vitaliy Robertus - the fourth, since the war began. There are rumors he was kileld diring drone strike, but no confirmation yet 

Per our earlier conversation, I think this gives a good sense of how willing the House is to defy the former guy when something is really popular: 
 

I'd argue it's already routine. This is the 4-5th video I've seen of deep strikes in the last month. 
But, UKR typically doesn't sit and suffer like the Ivans.

The thing to understand right now is that the Speaker already has no authority. His sole leverage is that nobody wants to go through another debac-tacular leadership election again. And with Buck's retirement and NY23 coming up, the Republican margin will be down to 1 vote for a while. It will then go back up to...2. So, there is little Johnson can do to punish recalcitrant members and plenty they can do to ruin his day, every day.  
The inescapable fact the derives from the above is that there is no plan or agreement. Johnson is a cipher...and Trump's cipher at that...in the House. He has no party loyalty to rely on (as Jefferies does) and his team is made up of pols who have more experience, cliques that support them, etc (i.e. Scalise, Jordan). What plan there is, is simply to stymie aid as long as possible because that's what Trump wants. Thus, the discharge petition.
To the vote, that the discharge petition is even happening tells you it has legs and in this case there are actually two (one from a Democrat and one from a Republican) but it is a hard road to travel and it takes time. How would the vote go? You probably lose about 10 to 15 Democrats but you also probably gain 70 to 100 Republicans. If the vote were a secret ballot, you probably would get 150 plus. Ukraine aid is that rare thing...it is truly popular and bipartisan. If they get the discharge to the finish line, it almost certainly passes...Johnson be damned. 

Where the heck is the RuAF... 
 

Where the heck is the RuAF... 
 

Where the heck is the RuAF... 
 

Where the heck is the RuAF... 
 

Lies, damn lies, statistics, and economic statistics. Reminds me of the old joke!
Two economists are walking in the park. As they're walking, they come across a pile of dog ****.
One economist says to the other, "If you eat that dog ****, I'll give you $50". The second economist thinks for a minute, then reaches down, picks up the ****, and eats it. The first economist gives him a $50 bill and they keep going on their walk.
A few minutes later, they come across another pile of dog ****. This time, the second economist says to the first, "Hey, if you eat that, I'll give you $50." So, of course, the first economist picks up the ****, eats it, and gets $50.  
Walking a little while farther, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $50 to eat dog ****, then you gave me back the same $50 to eat dog ****. I can't help but feel like we both just ate dog **** for nothing."
"That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $100

Who is sponsoring the discharge petition?  If it's a Democrat I wouldn't put too much into that - it's possible it could go through, but every Republican who pushes this forward is basically torpedoing the speaker's authority and he would then become ineffective at moving future legislation going forward (the Speaker of the House must be able to get his caucus to agree to different things to pass legislation and if his authority is undermined then he would be ineffective).  So that basically means the Republicans would need to find a new Speaker.  I'm not sure how many Republicans want to go through that again just to pass this (as important as this is to some here, the US has a lot of big issues to tackle).  Besides, none of us on this board know what's going on within the Republican caucus - the leadership likely already has a plan / agreement on what to do.
There are a lot of Democrats who will refuse to vote for this as well simply because they don't want to agree to anything that sends money to Israel.  I haven't seen anyone talking / writing about this Discharge Petition and if nobody is talking about it then I doubt it has any legs - but we'll see.  The votes might be there to pass it if the Speaker brings it to the floor, but just because the votes might there for regular order that doesn't mean that a Discharge Petition will succeed.  Even if every Democrat signed it (and not every one will) you would basically have to get enough Republicans to sign on and then look for a new Speaker of the House. 

Novorossiysk in the crosshairs? 

First time I've seen footage from a s400 crew during a HIMARS attack on it. 
 

"Lawmakers are discharging a special rule from House Rules. Process slightly faster than discharging legislation from a standing committee. Only 7 legislative days to pass for discharge, rather than 30 days to discharge a bill."
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/724415/how-a-little-used-parliamentary-maneuver-could-decide-the-fate-of-ukraine-funding/?unlock=3941GNX9JJY9R4NM