Kraft

Well, if it is that simple we should tell Putin we'll nuke him in 2 weeks, but gesture that we are willing to settle on him leaving Ukraine as a compromise. Has someone nuked Korea, or Vietnam? Are the Taliban a heap of ash because of the USSR or the US? Nukes arent a win button, unless you fall victim to nuclear blackmail (good luck trying to prevent future blackmail and conflict). Besides, what should he nuke first to aquire Ukraine? The Black Sea to test the water? Start immediately with London and Washington? Or choose the conservative option and nuke Zelensky? That will surely give him what he wants.. unless some world power already made some conventional promises about the fate of the Russian Armed forces should even a tactical nuke be deployed. It also somehow does not solve the issue of the UA military still standing in his way, or does he intend to nuke the frontlines as well? It would solve none of his issues but create a thousand more. And when push comes to shove, as you say, I have high hopes that random Russian officer #13 wants to live more than Putin does. Since you brought this up, nuclear Holocaust involves the whole world dying, so I somewhat assume it is not in Chinas & Indias best interest if the biggest and wealthiest markets seized to exist, not to mention the Ice Age that would wipe them out a little later. If you also include them profiting from the war in general, yeah they already do, but a recession in Europe hits China harder than if Russia, its xx-th most important trade partner buys more military boots. The oil/... profits for Russia will also be abysmal, as the new pipes will have massive costs and Russia has no leverage than to ship it and hope someone buys it at whatever price below market value to customers that originally didnt seem as attractive as the EU.

Diplomacy is for civilised countries following international laws and conventions, not terrorist states. Putin himself has also said that he does not feel obliged to anything discussed with the west and will do what he wants. Thats not someone you have a discussion with. This "gun" to his head is his own, forged in 20 years of dictatorship and revisionism. Nobody in the west cared about Russia, the cold war was belived to be over. Well, it turns out Putins grande opus is not about improving his country but turning its sons into fertiliser so can look at his imperialist ambitions on a map and go thats mine now! What do you think will happen if he says, we won! The jewish nazi is no more, lets go home. Do you think the cattle that was actionless while being herded into the slaughter would rise up? Because he didnt kill every last one Ukrainian? They will care more about having McDonalds return to their ****ty village. He can return to being King of the **** hill. Who doesnt have an out is Ukraine and its not because the evil west is puppeteering it, its because Russians tend to leave mass graves and unburied bodies litering the streets. The West has collectively I think 60 times the economic power of Russia, Ukraine will fight to the last and what do the Russians have? Another unwinable Afghanistan at best, one that even by conservative estimates they already trippled in death count. Do you think Russia could ever rule this land?

I hope they use her as a Pawn to tie all that no-MBTs bull**** too and throw her down the well (figuratively)

You can compute NE/SPE in a game of imperfect information, regardless of game length or mixed strategies. How to precisely apply that to poker I am not going to work my brain around

Actual visually confirmed and geolocated artillery pieces/SPG/MLRS/.. losses. So not ammo dumps but rather counter battery, drones,.. Iirc "lost" here includes captured. I'd argue that we have a clear break where the Ru losses slope increases, compared to the parity situation before. How much of this is captured and a result of frontage movement would need a new graph.

Supposedly dead Wagner PMCs using MM-14 camo, but with white armbands? Their MT-LB was hit and the occupants neutralized as seen here: Not sure what to make of it. Maybe they planned on removing their white armbands once near UA positions?

I think UA withdrew completely what could be withdrawn from Soledar today or yesterday. Red boxes are geolocated areas of Wagner presence, in the videos there was not even gunfire in the background.

At 2:36 the footage is from this here: The location named in twitter doesn't match the YT video description but the video is still worth a watch!

They were confused and in shock, you can see another fallen UA soldier already laying between them. In the longer video there is another one a couple meters away. The one who is holding on to his rifle was not realizing that the guy with the weapon who jumped into their foxhole from behind is an enemy, he tells him multiple times that they are on the same side. The attacker realizes that once he figures it out it with the rifle in his hand it may not end well for him. A ****ty situation all around, especially for the other one who raised his arms to surrender and was killed regardless. Both Soldiers have had their social identity revealed.

I dont think that is the case, atleast I didnt see any yellow armband on the Russian in that video. If you watch the full version that Russian is part of a group that flanked right behind the foxhole. In that group multiple Russians were wearing red armbands and their own camo.

The close proximity of Russian troops just walking down the street showing off the fallen UA soldiers. That area, at the time of the video, was not contested. Whether these vehicles were destroyed prior by something else and not shown on propaganda drone video, possible, my point is not that this was an ambush but that this situation is not as stable as some people seem to think. It rubs me the wrong way when the fighting there is being downplayed as unimportant tactical development, or that an imminent counter will kick Wagner right back out.., a lot of soldiers have died defending it and the videos yesterday were pretty gruesome.

I dont think the situation is stable. Russian units have been advancing on the outskirts today. A video of 2 ambushed UA vehicles (French VAB btw) with crew killed in the streets was geolocated here The fact that these vehicles got knocked out driving past Russians tells me this was not expected / communicated, an indicator that this area is not well defended, also that the Russians were just walking down the sidewalk sight-seeing. Very close to the only road in and out as well. I think this M113 MedEvac video shows that this is not a place resupply trucks can go. For reference this is the Russian location, spotted in Madyars video from todays morning:

3 or 4 high security convicts for 1-2 ukrainians is not a trade in favor of Ukraine I'm afraid. Himars don't help when some conscript throws a grenade in your room,.. those street battles are far more even in losses sadly.

Bakhmut, failed Russian assault.

Crazy footage, I am amazed the ' drive in and unload' tactic worked that well. I'd be very afraid to meet an MG Gunner who is not looking to maintain his life.. I guess that is also a major issue to program for CM AI. Also maybe a note for others, the video is nsfw, as there are unscensored facial bullet wounds shown and some blood. Deepstate shows Novoselivske as contested still

This is only a partial truth. Marders in storage of private firms are not in use of the Bundeswehr, yet cannot be sold to Ukraine because of political decisions. Or Leo1s to be sold by other countries, who lack the permission by whom? It is a fair question to ask the people in charge, who would the Bundeswehr defend against? France? New Austria-Hungaria? Any and all military equipment with the intend of keeping Europe peaceful has the highest marginal use in Ukraine right now where it would be able to put Russias military back decades, and safe Ukrainian lifes instead of dusting and rusting. NATO obligations are a nice throwaway line to say its not in the hands of the politicans, who for the last how many decades couldnt care less about NATO obligations of >2% GDP, 30days of ammo storage, actually working vehicles,... but it sure is a nice excuse right now. The same one that was used for the Dingos, who then suddenly could be sent quite easily (even though the Bundeswehr does not have a surplus..) after enough political pressure was felt.

Supposedly here in Marinka, hell on earth or Russian world?

This is not the case, as Ukraine is not going to Invade Belarus, just with the Russian border, its a dead end roadblock that will not get crossed to keep a clear and very distinct division between who is the attacker and who is the defender, so Russia does not need to station its armies there in any worthwhile capacity.

The coffer of old rusty soviet gear we can write off to make the MIC happy for new contracts has almost been emptied, there is discussion (again^2) of sending western MBTs but Im pessimistic. IF public support was higher, it would have already happened. Let me remind you, there are hundreds! of Leo1s, Marders,.. some already refurbished, still collecting dust in storage, owned by a private company, that is being denied by the government to sell those to Ukraine, and thats not because Germany hates profit generating firms! As I said in the beginning, there is a difference with a lot of people between "im pro Ukraine" vs "lets risk (no matter how nonrealistic this is) getting nuked because we send tanks". Even in this thread the "nukes" topic has been beaten to a pulp, resurrected several times and still lumbers around waiting to return for another 10 pages of what ifs.. Im sure once the genie is out of the bottle (western tanks, that is) people will ease up but this seems to be a very tough line to cross, despite its necessity in the long run.

Please notice I wrote seemingly, this is not my opinion but what is generally thought. If it were up to me everything would be fair game and NATO would intervene but if you look at what is actually the case, it is even a debated topic whether or not Ukraine should step foot into Russia or stop at the border.. those are political constraints set simply because public opinion in the west matters for the level of support that can be given to Ukraine. Back when the Mi choppers attacked Gas storage inside russia, or back when the Kerch bridge was hit, or the nazi daughter of that ru nat was killed, each time news channels here spoke of escalation and the Risks this brings with Russian retaliation etc, which influences people who do not care beyond those news and as you might see on western europes decisions, politicians are not sending everything they could because of the fear of escalation. Dragging another country into this (even if it is already hybrid involved, but thats details) would fuel this thinking of people who wince when Putin talks about red lines, Nukes for the 100th time.

What I think or dont think doesnt really matter neither does whether Belarus would have any implications militarily for the the publics perception, which is what matters, of people who do not follow this war closer than what major news outlets report on maybe a weekly basis about Ukraine. When it is enough of a scare for people here to change their attitude about supplying weapons just because Putin said we shouldnt, what do you think happens when another Nation gets dragged into the war, seemingly by Ukraines actions because the average Joe doesnt know the fine details of its support of Russian invasion and considers it outside the conflict. And for what? Destroying a few bombers that you can also destroy on a Russian airbase without any additional risk, is not worth it in my opinion.

Belarus would be fighting there, thry dont hace any offensive capabilities vut it would be a frozen front where soldiers die in daily shellings. And Russia cares little if Belarussian conscripts get fed to the grinder. There was a poll done a while ago that showed that while "support" for Ukraine (as in: "Who do you support?") is high in Germany/France, supplying weapons into the conflict is another matter and Putins nuke threats had a noticable impact in reducing the latter as people fear to get involved. Having the war expand would fuel exactly that fear that this is ww3 in the making and we shouldnt risk getting nuked, however unlikely that is. Most people dont perceive Belarus an active participant. They allow Russians on their soil but are not fighting themselfs. Having that country join officially would make headlines everywhere and would not cause increased support..

Wouldn't that be a net loss though? Right now no equiptment and no lives are being lost on that front. If it went hot then ammo and the rest would have to be sent there as well, diluting the front with Russia for basically no gain as that airbase will continue to operate. Planes can be taken out just as well on Russian soil and maybe im judging it wrong but destroying 1 or 2 strategic bombers is nice, but will not prevent Russia from carrying out these attacks that have almost no military value. Another problem would be western support, as many people in Europe would be far more afraid of a further escalation involving more and more countries, thus reducing help coming in for an increased front.

Incredible 27min video from Counter offensive on Kupiansk, by Kraken Unit. Contains NSFW CQB clip.

Oh I really hope one of the many talented scenario makers will create something with this