Kraft

Lots of captured Russian soldiers on Telegram today, I saw atleast 4 different occasions with half a dozen or more being captured. I assume this is the result of the counter offensive, being uploaded / reaching us just now. Seems the kindness is starting to fade a bit, on several occasions they were stripped almost naked and transported. I feel the worst is yet to come though, with Azov starting to run out of space in Mariupol. I do not think the Chechen thugs will try to take many prisoners. What will also be interesting is to see how the international volunteers there will be treated. I know Russia announced hardline treatment, but I am not sure Putin will risk obvious war crimes against them, atleast not openly in the street.

The fact that several unupgraded T-72A's have already been spotted in the 2nd week with Russian markings! not belonging to DPR/LPR shows that Russia is lacking in armor to field. Their operational high value assets are already in a poor state, I do not think much care was given to the tens of thousand rust buckets sitting in a snowy lot somewhere since 1991. And once they manage to cannibalize a working tank unit out of those, who is going to drive them without full mobilisation? Surely not the charred bony remains of what used to be semi trained troops. And whoever posted the vice video about Kharkiv.. just tragic. I saw a twitter video today of corpses in Mariupol being stacked in trucks and on the stairs and hallways of the morgue as the personel is unable to bury any bodies and the inventory is filled. I wish Zelensky strengh in withstanding the Russian Terror doctrine to hold and keep the Russians engaged. A ceasefire / negotiations are not wise atm in my opinion.

Map of Russian MoD, probably dated pre-counter offensive. I expected more lunacy given their ridiculous fatality figures, but maybe someone adviced them that geolocating is a thing and they didn't bother faking the "gains" made in 4 weeks of pointless bloodshet.

I have seen first video of seperatist saying Ukr soldiers came to them to surrender while filming a line of 7 shot up bodies

There seems to have been quite an uptick in frontline activity today, atleast I am seeing lots more equipment / personnel losses being posted than usual over the last days. Below is the first "properly equipped" weapon on Rus combat troops I've seen. I wonder if the Invader parted with it willingly

There was a discussion here some time ago about anti war conscripts, notice the useless comradery Z on all vehicles in Syria. That is not what you paint to show you are against slaughtering your neighbours.

Since vehicle audio is available, vibrations and muzzle flashes visible (look at the window frame) when shooting I am certain it is live recording during combat, you can also see the camera guy getting moved by inertia as the vehicle breaks during the tank engagement.

I am no ballistics expert, could the 30mm penetrate the side of the tank in question?

Incredible combat footage from inside a BTR-4. Close range street fighting against T-72 ? and BMP-1 + dismounts in Mariupol with autocannon.

Video has subtitles. Some nice propaganda from Moshchun, outskirts of Kiev.

I was thinking the same, the only reason I can think of that legitimises it is that if they were to fake a number, they would pick one thats higher than the ukrainian one

It is and it is suicide for any FDI for atleast the next decade. This is something only failed states and dictators on the edge of collapse do. No legitimate business will take on the risks that come with even a slither of >0 probability of having their investments nationalized. Even if Russia were to compensate those companies, the internal disruptions and uncertainty would make Putinland an economical Best Korea.

but that bush is owned by time traveling Soviets, blast it.

The Instagram Battalion has been posting close to Kyiv.

Maybe v1 has not had a 100% success rate, but v2 looks promising.

So many Ex-military turned students in that coup, kind of strange. I wonder why they left their tanks in base.

Every Russian soldier knows that Putin dropped Gas into city centers in Syria and what happened to Grozny. The pilot who pressed release on the 1000kg bomb knew perfectly well what he was hitting. Just like the Pilot who got captured the other day had countless experience hitting hospitals and markets with double strikes in Syria and got a selfie with Assad for his heroic deeds. Those advancing troops very much see where their Grad and Smerch cluster munition drops and what they did to the local residents. I have seen half a dozen videos of unarmed civilians fleeing in their cars to the west getting gunned down by Russian troops with no warning shots or engine disabling. For anyone who thinks the average fighting Ivan is a dissident in disguise should join some Russian Telegram channels. Besides that, surrendering has never been easier, I heard you get a lofty $ sum on top and running away at night shouldnt be too hard, I've only seen a singe Soviet era NVG from the Russians so far. If I was a conscript forced into a war against a country I had no quarrel with I'd be gone by the first night, those that stay and continue to operate are complicit.

I doubt the people cheering in the comments about dead children being pulled out of the rubble are going to change their minds because a couple of planes were or werent delivered. If they accept Putin propaganda that a jewish nazi president has been mass murdering russians for 8 years they dont need much convincing proof to whatever Putin serves them on state tv. You either believe that or you don't, there is no middle ground. Thankfully similar voices have been silent in this thread as of late.

Now imagine if Russia had to send an additional fighter section to protect the Ka52 that is protecting a dozen rusty trucks driving hundrets of KMs. I think they'd rather just order new trucks and find someone to drive it.. Thats atleast the main implication I see behind those MiGs, I do not think it would be wise to just throw them into the mix for a couple of days and mourn the Pilots.

Its not about the Ka52 being shot down (which it will be regardless) but the resource drain forced on the Russians to prevent it from being easily shot down from the Air. Constant CAP protection around those assets that could also hold its own against a massed Ukrainian effort would require a lot more and would definelty limit the ability of the RuAF to send those choppers out

As mentioned earlier by akd, the simple threat of them intercepting Russian missions would significantly hinder the deployment of bombers and air assaults as Russia would have to move a lot more assets to keep it's weaker air units protected, in the form of CAP and mixed loadouts. As an example those single Ka52s protecting supply convoys (as seen in a video some pages ago) would be more exposed and would require protection closeby themselfs, same with the bombing missions. With the number of MiGs in question Ukraine could very much gain the upper hand locally and take out a number of Russian air units, especially with US/UK/.. intel.

Russian Foreign Ministry said it does not seek regime change in Ukraine (anymore). I guess the Nazi ordered Genocide of ethnic russians is something Putin can work with. Sounds like someone is ready to tap out soon, but I doubt Ukraine is going to accept current Russian demands

Besides the obvious worries of escalation NATO is reserving actions short of declaring war to be able to deter Putin from escalating his use of force in Ukraine. Looking at Syria, the scale of civilian suffering has an almost unlimited ceiling, if all tricks are out of the hat there is little that would stop Russia from using chemical weapons and precisely targeting hospitals (ie not just collateral damage).

Lets compare them very roughly with Germany. (source) Ger pre-Invasion budget 55bn USD < 62bn USD for Russia. Out of 263 Ger tanks 43.7% or 115 are operational. Out of 343 IFVs ~30% or 102 are operational. Out of 220 APCs 60% or 132 are operational. With slightly +12.7% more budget russia apparently has a fleet of 1200 (+456%) tanks operationable? While also spending a lot more on Naval, a lot more on Airpower (~4000 vs 465 ger planes), and keeping ten thousands ot APCs / trucks up and running? I dont think so. Even if we are generous and say Russia can maintain 4 times as many tanks (+ all their naval, air force,..) on slightly bigger budget that leaves them with 450ish, of which atleast 120 are already destroyed So give it another 4 weeks; 2 if they decide to drive them into Kyiv ? Caveats: I assume the higher wages, pensions, healthcare and bureaucracy in Germany far outweight the cost to what is lost to corruption in Russia, so more money in russia goes directly to vehicles. Russian tanks are probably cheaper in maintenance and there are more spare parts available. On the other side, Germany lacks body armor, helmets, ammunition, and winter clothing, so it definitely wasnt just the vehicles getting starved for cash.