Kraft

1 yes and mortars 2 US officials say that, which they always will. UA was always in a situation where shells were needed and every additional one would find its use immediately. Large US stockpiles meant for Israels defense were tapped and to be sent to Ukraine. These are now being backordered and the flow of fresh shells split between the two countries. As for 777, I have seen plenty footage of Shahed used against them this year, so they were active.

Not to turn this into a tech support thread but the same is the case for me, I can only use mobile.

Shell shortage due to much of the supply going into Gaza https://www.axios.com/2023/10/19/us-israel-artillery-shells-ukraine-weapons-gaza

Im conviced the only way to really win this is completely outproduce russia in the drone department. If the monthly fpv strikes happened per week/..day across the front, the war would quickly become unsustainable, even in the manpower department. If there is a drone or three for every little hideyhole, no trench can be held and reinforced and the mines dont matter all that much anymore. Bonus point Id get to watch a lot more russians blow up instead of the occasional F16 flyby.

Just as a side note, this was posted on a Personal channel ~2 months ago. The official release cut out some parts, including one WIA being treated from one of the shells landing nearby and the KIA and WIA in the other trench from the FPV drone at 6:16.

Not sure if it has been posted yet. Russian military expenditure increased to 30% of GDP. A 70% increase. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-approves-big-military-spending-hikes-russias-budget-2023-11-27/?utm_source=reddit.com

Not sure how reputable this source is https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-u-s-leave-nato-1234860016/ But according to them, Trump, even after the invasion, wants to get rid of article 5 or else pull out of NATO, if reelected. --- Money means only so much though, how could the Taliban take Kabul, since their army got subsidised by 90 billions in aid and two decades of training from the best army in the world - if the soldiers dont fight its worthless. Why would Germany or Italy commit to a fight for Lithuania with a thousand KIA each day - If not even a quarter would fight for their own country? https://winmr.com/willingness-to-fight-for-ones-own-country-and-attitudes-towards-safety-and-war/ survey from after the Invasion. The budget of the Bundeswehr plays a very minor role in that. You can force conscript the males and throw them like Shtorm-Z away. I doubt they would perform any better than the unmotivated russian rabble that is dying right now, they dont complain about it atleast, doubt that would be the case for the guy who was living a great comfortable high end life before, his family will not be happy with a bag of potatoes As to actual size, ie how many soldiers/km, not how expensive his procurement program was, I think europe would be far behind in active combatants if Russia does mobilise. But it will not come to that anyway, as Ukraine will not collapse

I believe any of those plans are really not all that likely while SMO goals have not been fullfilled. However US troops will not deploy in the hundred thousands to die by FPV drones in a muddy trench if Trump is elected. Whatever else Europe has (left) in terms of military is tiny in scale and wouldnt stand a few months of current war attrition. How many Germans, French, Hungarian.. citizens would really give their lives for say Lithuania? Russia is absolutely fine throwing a thousand lives away per day, are europeans too? All it takes is some political instability in Europe and mass mobilisation in Russia, which by the absolute lack of anti war movement doesnt seem that unsuccessfull in pulling off.

More ambushes in Sumy region. Indicates a lack of units to properly guard this region. Mashovets claims atleast 14 rus sabotage teams are active here. In an armored vehicle the crew would likely still be alive .

A simple step that is a few years below 1984 would be to just block any and all political party "donations" coming from some unknown strongly moved spectator, that cares so ever deeply about <insert country> politics as to involve himself in their funding campaigns, while residing in russia.

3 rus special forces infiltrating into Sumy region spotted by a drone.

I dont think there will be an 'okay we give up', before lack of support forces this decision as the war is not really sustainable without western aid. Will it happen - I dont know. Rise of far right anti-EU (often Putin funded) in Europe is very worrying and US elections I think will prove decisive as I believe Biden Admin is keeping support temporarily low to keep chances of winning higher. But then again I thought ATACMS would be the deciding factor for Taurus and I was wrong, so maybe I am biased in my judgement of political will .

Claimed atleast, hopefully this time the claims are right, but I do hear his phone is just damaged

I went through the PVVs election promises, under defense on page 36, they say in rosey terms no aid to Ukraine to stop islamic terror in the netherlands. And appearently because the country needs to defend itself too Add on top his Ukraine is divided and its all the EU/NATOs fault anyway from some years ago For me that is enough direct evidence.

If you take Reuters word for it it would spare me going through his cesspool twitter Btw, I consider any anti-EU politician as harmful, as this weakens Europe as a whole and strenghens US (indifferent) and China, thereby Russia.

The Dutch have made very sizeable contributions, this however seems to come to an end now with (another) anti-EU alt right wing populist getting elected in Europe. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-election-dutch-wilders-idUSBREA3G1CS20140417/

Yes look at Pyongyang and count the amount of times these poor starving farmers have risen up and disposed of the people responsible for their suffering.

Before this nuke topic reheats for the gazillions time, it changes nothing about minefields, artillery and fpv drones. A tac nuke will kill a company or so of infantry and irradiate the sturmoviks riding into the minefield.. All the while crossing a red line that has promised NATO air strike retaliation written all over it. So please spare this pointless could russia win by nuking some atgm waste heap position discussion. As for gas, both sides have used it in several instances, not systematic because even when dropped into a dugout, it still only works somewhat well at flushing it out, incendiary works better and has 0 international baggage.

Even with the increased budget, very weird

I want to add that UA needs to maintain a 3(4) to 1 ratio just to keep force parity. A 1-1 ratio is only ever good if it leads to strategic payoffs, which it did not. Assuming ofc a constant, not declining.. supply of vehicles from the West. This is a big if too, because I dont see another hundred or so european tanks/.. coming next year, even if the will is there. This can only be really done by the US. Meanwhile Russia will continue to restore and produce with increasing numbers in 2024. Now before its brought up, these Russian losses will have paid off if Avdiivka falls. So its too early to judge that in my opinion. The initial push overcame the most defensible and difficult part, albeit at huge losses. But alas, new brigades will take the place of lost ones and the Infantry may well grind this out in favor of the invaders.

Why is it so difficult to fix the demand for basic vehicles, not even armored ones. Often I see donation posts for a simple jeep or van (that offers 0 protection for the medics/.. inside) having to be funded by generous donators. As far as I know most European car manufacturers have declining orders, should not be impossible to get a large quantity contract for a simple offroad vehicle.

Automatic translation is okay. No new crazy new insights but a cool tank

About 105.000 trained UA soldiers in the west this year. https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-france-military-f70fb490a8e4fd5ea472e3d81de7a176