Chibot Mk IX
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Posts posted by Chibot Mk IX
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37 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
Im curious if those US Reaper drones would be usable v Russian kilo subs...
No, they won't be helpful in a conventional way. ASW warfare changed a lot since WW II, these Kilos are not U-Boats. They don't need to surface to release their weapons. Occasionally these diesel electric submarine will come at periscope depth for communication and recharge the battery, but that is still too deep for an ATGM. They need dedicated ASW plane to take care of. The only one in the region that has the capability is the USN. Even assume Ukraine got a squadron of P-3C tomorrow ( plus couple more squadron of NATO fighters to protect Orion) that would not be helpful. ASW is a black magic that cannot be mastered by reading "ASW for dummies 101". It needs years of trainings, trails.
The only way I can think about is the Reaper caught Kilos resupply in the naval base. But how to get rid of the SAM umbrella is another question.
Or, maybe, in best case scenario, one of the Kilo captain decided to surface, because he is bored with underwater patrol..... everything is possible.
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2 hours ago, dan/california said:
Does the TAC AI know that? I mean sometimes they spot the ATGM team and shoot back, and sometimes they don't? Honest question on game mechanics
Yes, I have plenty of saved replay to prove that. An AFV with poor optics will turn the turret and hull toward the missile even though they have not spotted ATGM team.
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a little bit OT
The war approaches its 3rd month. In a Parallel Universes (one of the battlefront universes) the RuAF has almost reached Carpathian Mountains. (I am playing the scenario interdiction)
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a criticism on how TDF Bn was incorrectly managed and used, guess this is related to the battle around Popasna
UKRAINE'S TERRITORIAL DEFENSE FORCES AT WAR: LESSONS LEARNED
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Yeah, It’s not the end of the world
The current situation is just like a mini-me version of Battle of Kursk. The German's AGS achieved a breakthrough but AGC stopped cold by Central front. A single axis breakthrough definitely will create some crisis . But it’s going to be very hard to make the whole UA line collapse unless UA become panic in the next few days.
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4 hours ago, Hapless said:
So... lots of BMP-1s? I can kinda get seeing a few MTLBs because they're semi-ubiquitous utility vehicles, but not so many BMP-1s.
I mean, could be DPR/LPR vehicles, but committing the second-rate cannon fodder to an important operation is probably a sign of something worse.
Also: there's a chunk of BMP stuck in a tree!No surprise, it could be one of the Russian BTG participated the battle around Chernihiv area who suffered relatively light causality (based on RA standard) but lost most of the heavy equipment during the retreat. So they probably took the equipment from a central Asia military base, refit and resupply for two weeks then be sent to the meat grinder again.
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3 hours ago, akd said:
Khodaryonok singing a different tune today:
Poor Misha.
BTW, Mikhail Khodaryonok wrote an article back in early Feb. He predicted that a blitzkrieg won't work, Ukrainian are determined to defend their homeland. The war with Ukraine will be a long difficulty struggle. The armed conflict with Ukraine at present does not fundamentally meet the national interests of Russia.
The article can be found here.
https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html
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I know a while ago people discussed if M1 or Leo2 can be easily incorporated into UA, as they have the 3 tanks plt
https://twitter.com/battle_order/status/1526201049492733955?s=20&t=rOv21hirQ-RyM0woJzh_QA
https://twitter.com/battle_order/status/1526201049492733955?s=20&t=rOv21hirQ-RyM0woJzh_QA
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The enemy is on the rooftop . The TacAI may consider using RPG is the best option (against the target in building). So that may overwrite the target light order.
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Hi Chelentano
What is the recommendation for the 2nd scenario Tiger hunt? vs RedAI, vs BlueAI? or is it for PBEM only?
Thank you , the first scenario looks great
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10 hours ago, Canada Guy said:
Everyone here seems to be stating that the Russians have already launched their offensive. With so little movement, are we sure? When I think of offensives, I think of Bagration. These seem like pinpricks at best - company or company+.
Nah, no Bagration v2.0
Before Bagration , Soviets spent at least two months on rest & refit, training , stockpile the ammunition, POL and other supplies. How long did RA spend on these? Less than 10 days.
Many people believe RA offensive has already reached its climax. As many other members on this forum and UKR MOD’s AAR indicated, RA conducted lots of probe, slowly grinding forward along 4 axis. That’s the best they can do.
RA’s artillery looks formidable but how to use them effectively is a different story. Situation awareness is always the lowest board in RA.
Russian Army lacks reconnaissance assets. At Army level they have one reconnaissance brigade in which only has one Bn to commit into the frontline. And it looks like the RA Recon. Brigade were kept as elite infantry units to counter ATGM threat, committed into the battle only after the main UKR defense line has been identified.
The infantry has neither the training nor the moral to take on the recon job.
Drones are in their arsenal, but numbers are limited.
The only assets that can stand ground long enough and mark targets for their Artillery are the AFVs.
So what we have seen last twenty days is, 1, pre-planned artillery, 2, BTG probe UKR’s defense line (and many time its just a company size team move forward) , 3, BTG took some ATGM, sometime they lost couple AFV, sometime lost dozens then fall back, 4, UKR defense line has been identified then artillery can be called upon. The next day they just repeat this procedure
It is a slowly grinding forward. A WW 1 style warfare in 21 century. Can this tactic causing the collapse at some area of UKR defense and later develop into a pursue at operational level? It is possible but very hard to achieve, I guess. RA’s BTG can probe here and there but overall, their OODA is very long, situation awareness is poor. There could be some hole on UKR’s defense but it will take some time for RA to notice that. By the time they noticed that UKR side may have already take action to plug the hole.
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meanwhile Zelensky gave a powerful motivational speech.
QuoteThis is not a war of two armies. This is a war of two worldviews. The war waged by barbarians who shell the Skovoroda Museum and believe that their missiles can destroy our philosophy. It annoys them. It is unfamiliar to them. It scares them. Its essence is that we are free people who have their own path. Today we are waging war on this path and we will not give anyone a single piece of our land. Today we celebrate the Day of Victory over Nazism.
QuoteOur enemy dreamed that we would refuse to celebrate May 9 and the victory over Nazism. So that the word "denazification" gets a chance. Millions of Ukrainians fought Nazism and went through a difficult and long journey. The Nazis were expelled from Luhansk, the Nazis were expelled from Donetsk, and Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk were liberated from the occupiers.
The Nazis were expelled from Yalta, Simferopol, Kerch and the entire Crimea. Mariupol was liberated from the Nazis. They expelled the Nazis from all over Ukraine, but the cities I named are especially inspiring us today. They give us faith that we will drive the occupiers out of our own land for sure.
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On 4/21/2022 at 6:43 PM, Grey_Fox said:
I know that in the modern games it's to differentiate between normal smoke, which only blocks normal vision, and multispectral smoke, which blocks thermals. Idk if that was the rationale for CMCW.
Note that artillery smoke, despite being white, isn't multispectral in any title.
in CMSF and CMBS, the white smoke generated from AFV's smoke discharger is IR Blocking smoke. But that's not the case in CMCW.
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AT Gun in action
one shot, two kills
Poor Rus recon troops never stand a chance
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Please ignore this, found the answer from the manual.
QuoteThe M240 is typically equipped with the M145 Machine Gun Optic. This American variant of the Canadian C79 optical sight has 3.4x magnification, an illuminated reticle and is optimized for use on machineguns. For low-visibility operations, the M240 can also be equipped with a
Medium Weapon Thermal Sight (MWTS) and AN/PEQ-16. -
Update
Crap, my bad. I should double check the manual before I complaint
QuoteM249s are typically equipped with an ACOG or M145 Machine Gun Optic for daylight sights. For night operations, an AN/PEQ-16 multifunctional laser sight is attached and an AN/PVS-13(V)2
Medium Weapon Thermal Sight (MWTS) is issuedthe M240 can also be equipped with a
Medium Weapon Thermal Sight (MWTS) and AN/PEQ-16.M2 : However, for low-visibility operations a Heavy Weapon Thermal Sight (HWTS) can be attached.
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OK, thank you, I post this in general tech support.
21 hours ago, chuckdyke said:I think it may have a thermal scope. I had a quick look in the SF2 manual and some of them have IR.
Yes, this could be the reason. I did another test, adding some US infantry team on the map. HMG, MMG and even LMG team (M249) they all have thermal sights. Infantry squad/team can do that because the squad leader and team leaders have TWS sights on their M4. Barrett , yes. But M110 and MK21 PSR do not have thermal sights
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Please see the screenshot from the link below
save file and scenario attached here
https://www.dropbox.com/s/jp69o9f7iax08mp/01 Thermal sight test 0025 1.bts?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/zwlukchycqx49n8/01 Thermal sight test.btt?dl=0
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screenshot attached
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On 4/20/2022 at 8:25 AM, BeondTheGrave said:
My wargaming what-if for this war is quickly becoming "How would things have changed if the Russian army had retained a stronger Regimental system and not the BTG." Seems like a combined arms (combined function) Regiment would be in keeping with Russian warfighting practice, its numerical strength, and its lack of command flexibility.
I have the same opinion with you, a function Regiment—Division—Army structure should have a better result compared to current BTG-Brigade-Army structure in this crazy full scale invasion war.
But the question is: can Russian afford a function Regiment system in the first place? I guess the answer is a no. and that’s why they went through all those reforms.
On 4/20/2022 at 9:17 AM, The_Capt said:I think maybe the Russians were reaching for some western concepts here but wound up with an unholy compromise. Decentralized and dispersed, highly empowered tactical units are theoretically capable of rapid exploitation and accelerating decision cycles but they come with significant costs. They need a lot of ISR support and integral enablers. They also cannot avoid the realities of a long logistical tail, or you employ them as one-shot fire-and-forget but have a whole bunch more in the operational magazine.
Further, this also greatly increases the load on the operational level to make sense of what all these tactical units are doing and provide clear and concise task command when needed (everyone forgets this in the warm liberal glow of "do whatever feels good" mission command - which is not that either]. That is a lot of C4 architecture to plug everything into and a significant training bill to make sure everyone knows what they are doing.
It is like the Russians built an impression of this but did not understand how all the parts fit together. That, or they were shooting for something else entirely and I am not seeing it.
Here is my thought:
Instead of a proactive change, the Russian military reform is a result of admitting the de facto status that they lack manpower, resources to keep the old structure functional.
What is a 20% strength regiment good at? Why you have to cut paychecks for those officers while you cannot find enough cannon fodder to fill the ranks. There are a huge nuclear arsenal needs maintenance, nuclear attack submarine and nuclear ballistic missile submarine fleet have the higher priority, flying boys also asked for a budget increase.
In short, Mother Russia cannot afford everything. So, the Army must cut their budgets to adapt to the new reality. That’s the background of Serdyukov’s reform. It shrinks the OOB, cut a lot of branches (Logistics, always logistics personal be fired first) while keep Artillery and armor strength relatively intact on paper. I have read some studies on this topic, basically Russian Army converted 136 BTGs from 120 Brigades/Regiments. So it is a big lay off + assets sale to keep a healthy cash flow. Regarding ISR support and C4, that’s not the focus of the reform. Neither the treasure chest can afford that nor the big boss is interested in (How can you put a military concept on a May 9th Parade?).
On the bright side , a reform is good opportunity to have new equipment and dedicated professional personal enlisted. Of course due to the corruption the fund for new equipment are used for expensive Italian yachts, dedicated professional personal actually means the mistress in Paris. But that’s belongs to different topic.
Not everyone is happy about the reform. A flat organizational structure means less promotion opportunities. After Shoigu was appointed as Minister of Defense, he made some changes to restored to the old traditional way. He pretends that the dissatisfy from the young officers group has been heard, but in reality he is a genius good at office politics. He appeases every faction and make them think he is one of their close allies. So he restored some of the old division but that’s it. He didn’t solve any manpower shortage problem for these divisions (aka didn’t significantly increase the budget mother Russia must afford) . As some of the analysis indicated, these Guard divisions have nothing but shrining insignia, their battlefield performance are even worse than those BTG/Brigades.
On 4/20/2022 at 1:31 PM, The_Capt said:These BTGs look like they were prepared for a internal security operation and not a conventional war.
Indeed, they are not fit for a conventional full scale war. IMHO, I think they will do a far better job in a low scale border conflicts (Sino-Vietnam war 1979 and the conflicts between 1979-1991 came into my mind)
That is a solution similar to cavalry carousel, one Army put two BTG in the frontline, and support them with the whole army’s assets. After two days operation, withdraw the two BTGs from the frontline and sending two new fresh BTGs into the meat grinder.
But I guess anyone who dare to speak the truth in Jan will be shot by Putler, so here we go with a full scale invasion
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Sorry, I am 20 pages behind the latest updates.
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just finish this.
What a fight!
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In a fast paced society, we can look into something happened two month ago and call this a history study
I don’t see anyone mention this.
Росія планувала захоплення України під виглядом стратегічних військових навчань (gur.gov.ua)
The captured order was issued from 1st Gds Tank Army to ind. 96th reconnaissance brigade on Feb 23rd evening.
With a google translation I can see that Russian Army, at least at Army HQ level, did not underestimate the Ukr force’s war preparation. However as we can see, in the end whole operation become a big failure. What happened? Guess we won’t have a clear answer for next couple months and we will have a lot of debate on root of cause.
A military blogger/twitter made some comment based on this captured order.
https://twitter.com/partizan_oleg/status/1515244184894017538
Before the war , no one will believe that a Tank Army stopped cold by 1 Ukr regular BTG and 2 TDF btns
https://twitter.com/partizan_oleg/status/1515255853586083842
Another incredible defense happens outside 1st Gds Tk Army’s AOR, Hlukhiv-Konotop-Nizhyn axis. On the paper RA has tremendous fire power advantage there. The 2nd CAA assigned three Brigades in this axis, they are facing Ukr side’s 1 x Mot. Inf Btn + 2 x TDF Btns + some militia force. 122mm is the largest caliber artillery in defender’s arsenal. Good road condition and relatively open terrain should make this task a piece of cake. In the end RA decided to bypass Hlukhiv and Nizhyn and paid a high price for this decision. Ukr infantry’s attack on supply convey killed 2nd CAA’s mobility.
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53 minutes ago, db_zero said:
On paper the Leopard1s appear hopelessly outdated and of limited use, but so were the Sherman’s used by the Israelis up until the 70s.
The people manning them mattered more than the specs on paper.
Don't know if L1A5's gunner thermal sights are still in good condition or not. If they still works then it can be a huge bonus to the UA.
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26 minutes ago, db_zero said:
What experience level did he set Moskva at?
Looks like regular, the testing scenario also incorrectly put the scenario at day time, clear weather condition.
I did a testing myself. Even with correct parameter, night time, heavy rain , sea state 5, a novice Moskva can easily defeat a salvo of 16 subsonic Harpoonski.
An EMCON D Moskva can detect the ASM at 16nm away and begin the engagement at 12nm away.
An EMCON A Moskva first detect ASM at 10nm away , the ASM turn on the weapon seeker radar there, broadcast their presence to Moskva . With a 18 seconds OODA cool down SAM left the tube at 7nm away. Most of ASM will be intercepted.
But, there is one trick to make a two Harpoonski strike successfully penetrate a radar silence Moskva's defense. Don't use automatic fire. Use BoL fire. First do a calculation to predict where the Moskva will be when the ASM reach that area. Mark a point on the map then make the ASM aim at that point , in BOL mode ASM will turn on their radar there. It is supposed to be somewhere very close to Moskva.
They will hit the Moskva before her OODA cool down.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
It’s a coincidence that we had a similar discussion on a Chinese forum last week, identical questions.
Take this with a grain of salt. Regarding TB-2 reduced showtime, here is one of the theory. After a three months high intensity operation, these birds need to stand down, repair and maintenance. I guess Baykar won’t hesitate to send a group of field engineers to do an field maintenance, but it is possible they need to be returned back to the factory to do the maintenance work. Another theory is Russian air defense capability improved in this static warfare. they have enough time build an air defense network supported by EW and AEW assets. One vs one, I will buy a Bayraktars’s win. But in a few vs many scenarios ,TB-2 is very likely to be detected and be shot down. Lack of a RWR system not only hurt TB-2 but almost all the drone on the arms trade industry. UAV operator has very limit situation awareness besides the narrowed FOV from the camera. A few destroyed TB-2 should deter Ukraine to use these precious assets for a patrol mission. But on the other hand it is not a big setback to Ukraine side, better to save them for something big, like a surprise deep strike.
For the drone swarm and artillery tubes, we still need lots of arty tubes. No one can generate a drone swarm at this moment, Chinese companies have occupied almost all the commercial drone market, but that doesn’t mean China has the capability to mass produce commercial drone independently, dedicate military drone has more trouble on mass production. Now for the portable commercial drones, they are lack of the range to do the punch. Most of the quadcopter drones are designed with positive static stability, so even a small payload will dramatically reduced the range. In some case DJI drone carrying a hand grenade will have less range than a 82mm mortar.
The discussion leads to one of the conclusions: in the near future at tactical level, drones and Arty are in a complementary relationship not a competition relationship. Let the Drones be the eyes, focus on the recon spotting, and let Arty do the punch.
Another conclusion is, CH-4 Rainbow is a better UCAV compare to Bayraktar TB2. Guess not too many people outside GFW are going to agree on that