db_zero

I just watched a video about locals in Belarusia about their impressions of Russian troops recently on exercises there on the SE border. ”They drink a lot and sell a lot of their diesel fuel”. nuf said.

Came across an argument that the Russians only have a few days worth of heavy artillery ammo on hand and will have to start conserving. The ammo factories have been partially cut off from raw materials and wouldn't be able to crank out enough in a short amount of time anyway. Prediction is if the Ukrainians can hold out for 3-4 days the Russian big guns will be spent.

Don't know if this has already be mentioned, but looks like the hacker group anonymous has hacked into Russian TV and is broadcasting the truth about what is going on. Besides Molotovs, remember when large sheets were used to blind vehicles crews?

I would think burning gasoline being sucked in through the engine grill isn't very healthy for any vehicle. Saw a video where over 5000 molotovs were being made on 1 street corner alone. This could get very nasty for the Russians.

China is watching this closely. Wonder if their assumptions about taking Taiwan with a sea/air assault and subsequent movement through some very difficult mountainous through highways covered by dense jungle and surrounded by cliffs, with bridges, choke points and caves is going to change. and once they get through all that take very modern and stoutly constructed urban centers.

Hearing that large contingents of Chechen fighters are heading to Ukraine to assist Russia. These include "shock troops" Doesn't surprise me. There are reports of supply and morale issues with Russian units. Don't know how good these Chechen fighters are, but I would guess they have some combat experience. If this is true and accurate then its telling that Putin is asking and sending foreign fighters to assist.

If I were NATO I would say we heard you and extend a guarantee that Ukraine stays out of NATO.

Not only that but imagine if Putin does decide to use a weapon like the TOS-1 in a urban area and Russian prisoners are present there will be hell to pay back home.

I’m hearing the Ukrainians are letting captured Russian troops to call home and talk to family…

If this end up being a complete Russian fiasco I would hate to be the generals who will have to face Putin.

Cut off Twitter? You want to start WW4? Sounds like bad planning or too many bad assumptions. Will this be another 1948 like Arab-Israeli fiasco where David beat Goliath or Russian-Finland fiasco? Stay tuned.

may be another explanation. The US provided advanced tactical communication and command and control gear and training after 2104 and had time to analyze what Russia did in the Crimea. They may have and may continue to be providing some sort of support in the electronic and cyber spectrum area. That aspect is usually very hush-hush. I have no doubt Strategic, operational and tactical intelligence is being fed to the Ukrainians. Drones, recon assets operating in Europe and Satellites are undoubtedly operating at full speed. Think the shoot down of 2 transports loaded with paratroopers was a chance encounter?

Unless the Russians start jamming or knocking out satellites, cell towers and making sure all land lines are cut you'll be able to send and receive communication. Or maybe someone didn't think of it Also keep in mind cyber and information warfare is part of Russia's strategy so they need it as much as Ukraine.

I saw another video where a out of gas AFV crew stranded on a road was asked where are you going and the response was "we don't know" So much has been made of the "New and Improved Russian Army" Does anyone know if enlisted men know how to read a map, use GPS? Are any NCO's or enlisted men even issued maps or GPS in the new Russian army? Or is this still the old school Russian army where only officers have a general idea of what going on?

Netherlands is sending 200 Stinger missiles to Ukraine. There are 2 US drone flying around Ukrainian airspace according to reports. Besides unit tactics training before the conflict the west was also providing communication gear and command and control gear and training to “better integrate”.

Wow! I'm now seeing the US is willing to evacuate Zelenskyy, but he is refusing to go. Barring some miracle Putin will take Ukraine, but will it go down as a pyrrhic victory?

Definitely egg on the face on China. As diplomatically as i can say it to keep this thread open, perhaps both Russia and China were reading too much into domestic US politics and thought they had an advantage and this was a time to make moves and mis-calculated. It happens. Just a though but in the end IDK... As for Putin's end game? I would look at google maps and mark off the urban areas, major rivers and ports and overlay that with what Putin gobbles up. There are the areas where political and economic power flow through.

Hard to say. Putin has been a smooth operator, but perhaps his success and ability to get away with murder has caught up with him. Its also time to bring up China. By aligning with Putin and allowing Putin to move forces from the flank that was guarding the front with China they should be held to some account. They are trying to play it cool and not come out completely on Putin's side and make statements to the effect that both sides should negotiate, but who are they fooling? I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and believe the report that they really didn't believe Putin would actually go forward and launch and full scale assault and are now trying to backtrack, but still some punishment is in order. I say we send Taiwan some Javelins, Stingers and dangle some F-15X's to send a message to China. They are complicit in Putin's venture into Ukraine.

I have to give President Zelenskyy the Man of the Year Award and great respect for the internal fortitude and courage he is showing in the face of overwhelming odds. Unlike others who fawn over dictators, talk tough, incite insurrection and chaos and bail when the going get tough, Zelenskyy has more than shown his meddle. This is going to change a lot of people perceptions on the cast of characters who dominate the spotlight. We've entered a new world...

Ukraine has asked for more Javelins and Stinger and as mentioned a re-supply convoy passed through Poland into Ukraine. I also saw report that aside from US conventional forces being used in Ukraine to train Ukrainians, the special forces and CIA was also present training Ukrainians. My guess is the SF and CIA was training select individuals in unconventional and guerrilla techniques. I also saw a fairly recent youtube video report that on the informal militia like groups present in the Ukraine that were not officially sanctioned by the Ukrainian government at the time. Quite honesty they looked like some of the militia groups you see in the US and what I also found interesting was they were packing what looked like AR15s with modern rail systems and optics. With Javelins and Stringers these militia groups and other guerrilla fighters could really make a real headache for the Russians. I just hope that some sort of settlement can be reached, but I doubt anything satisfactory to both sides can be agreed upon. Wars are easy to start but difficult to end.

The British have supplied the Ukrainians with NLAW systems. It has a different attack profile than Javelin from what I was able to see

Just saw report Ukrainians have recaptured Kyiv airport.

Those brave enough to be protesting in Moscow have real courage and fortitude given what the consequences will probably be if arrested. I just saw an article about crowdfunding and other ways you can help support the Ukrainian military. Didn't want to post link as I don't know if it would be ok to do so. It was on Quartz-How to donate to the Ukrainian Army.

I don't put much faith in wargames as indication of how the real thing will play out. Before the 1991 Gulf War it was estimated we would suffer 10s of thousands of casualties based on wargames. Former Def Secretary Gates mentioned the extensive wargaming that predicted outcomes and said its unreliable. We're talking about an amphibious invasion from a nation that has little practical combat experience, let alone amphibious invasion experience. The would be tasked with not only carrying out one of the most difficult military operations-an amphibious invasion, but would also have to gain and maintain complete air and naval dominance over s sustained period. That's a big ask of a force with no practical experience. On the other hand the defending force only have to delay and disrupt. That's a easier task. Once ashore they will have to be able to resupply a large force. The terrain of Taiwan heavily favors the defenders and the island was already heavily fortified and Taiwan has undoubtedly enhanced what was already there. The huge urban areas would be a massive proposition to take and while on paper the Chinese Army dwarfs Taiwan, there is only so much China can deploy and actually keep supplied to Taiwan. Taiwan would have the advantage of being the defender in favorable conditions and have the advantage of interior line of communications. They also have an ample stash of sophisticated portable weapons. Invading Taiwan also carries huge political risks internal and external for any Chinese leader who launches an invasion. In any event there is no indication China is mobilizing for an invasion of Taiwan and Taiwan has put its military on high alert so the element of surprise in not present.

That would be perfect for the US. Inspite of its reputation for being anonymous, transactions on the blockchain can be tracked. Perfect target for US Cyber Operations.