Haiduk

Russian attacked large targets - plant facilities or some large buildings. Two missiles launched on Kremenchuk factory exploded one in 500 m from other. One locked the mall in 100 m from factory wall, other hit near one of factory facilities. In other known case missile hit very close to 9storey building and directly in pension in Serhiivka, causing 21 deaths. So, their accuracy enough to hit large objects or area objects, for which they were designed.

Result of Sunday strike on pension "Chaika" in Lazurne, Kherson oblast. Pinpoint accuracy - destroyed Russian low-altitude radar 48Ya6K-1 "Podlyot" for S-300/S-400 And how it looked

In that time our AD Command claimed this is our SAM work. They wrote enemy Su-35 attcked a pair of our Su-25 in Nova Kakhovka area, but was shot down. Let's see what type this jet was indeed.

Almost the same role played our seals from 73rd Maritime Special opeartions Center in 2014. Though, during Debaltsevo battle they worked in one episode by own speciality - they destroyed the dam on small river, conducting some underwater works. When our forces landed recently on Zmiinyi island, teams of 73rd MSOC and 801st Detachment to Combat Underwater Sabotage Forces used micro-submarines to reach the shore and search approaches to the island for landing groups on Willard RIBs. On the photo - this group before or after Zmiinyi landing - micro-submarine in right lower corner and Willard, armed with M2 behind them

Here about 500 m CEP of Kh-22M/MA generation in comparison with Kh-22 generation: https://military.wikireading.ru/hOIyKWeQCi Missiles of second generation little outwardly changed, but with enchanced homing system CEP of Kh-22MA reduced from 1000 m to 500 m, and the speed increased up to 4265 km/h And here about CEP of Kh-22N/NA: https://topwar.ru/37561-krylataya-raketa-h-22.html The feature, of missiles, adopted in the mid of 70th became new homing systems. They maintained significantly better accuracy of hit. So, CEP of Kh-22N didn't exceed several dozens meters.

Kh-22 had three generations and this one of first generation, which can use radar only against large ships already decomissioned from service. In present time Tu-22M3 bombers use third N-generation: Kh-22N (active), Kh-22NA (inertial with course corrections by relief) missiles, which has CEP 100 m (for Kh-22N, for NA I didn't found, but it СEP should be worse). Though, some number of second M-generation with CEP in 500 m also could be used. Since May 6, when was first launch, Russian Backfires launched 46 Kh-22 missiles and 8 newest Kh-32 (latter all were launched on May 6 on Kramatorsk area). According to some sourcs USSR produced about 1000 Kh-22 of all modifications. Kh-32 was designed for Tu-22M3M usage, but since 2016, when it was adopted Russia allegedly produced (upgraded from existed Kh-22 to be precise) 30 of theese missiles. Because Kh-22 has too high speed (4-6M) we havn't AD assets, capable to intercept it with good probability. Only our S-300V1 has some small chanses to intercept it close to the target on final section of trajectory. Reportedly 3 Kh-22 were shot down, once even was a reportage how a soldier shot Kh-22 with MANPAD, but this is ridiculos. I think, all theese three Kh-22 rather just crashed due to technical reasons, than were intercepted. Also active types of Kh-22 work on single frequency, so can be supressed by EW assets, but how to know which target Russian will choose next time?

Usually battalion level ammo dump deployed in the rear of battalion and some number of ammunition shared between companies ammo dumps. In the companies and battalion HQs exist a duty of officers, which responsible for accounting of ammunition level and it timely supply. From platoons level reports about wasted ammunition go to comapny HQ, from there - to battalion HQ and battalion ammo dump, from where the chief of the dump (comamnder of battalion supply unit) gives ammunition according to the order of battalion HQ. Delivering of ammunition to battalion ammo dump is a task of regimental/brigade supply unit, which takes it on regimental/brigade ammo dump Number of needful ammunition calculates by higher officer of RAV service (RAV - missile and artillery armament). I don't know how it's in Russia, probably their RAV officers this is a level of regimental/brigade HQ, but in Ukraine at least since 2019 each battalion HQ has own RAV officer.

Russians are moving further to the rear their large ammunition dumps out of HIMARS/Tochka-U ranges. Also they now trying to disperse own command centers, creating false and reserve command points, also new field command centers they will be dig in deeply. Of course, redeploying of ammunition dumps in the deep rear will demand more trucks, more fuel for continuous supply of BTGs Here the assesment of DefMon how will increase the time of supply on different directions

Probably Russians really hve some trubles with own pontoon raiway bridge and railways near Kupyansk

ITV news reportage from frontline near Sloviansk: - T-72M1(R) fire indirectly - DSHKM-TK HMG work (though, gunner do it not very good) - 82 mm mortar - Javelin

This An-12 belonged to commercial air company. I think, despite the war, they continue to work according contracts. Russian airlifters havn't access to EU airspace, and UKR airlifters prices obviously more attractive than western. It's enoug long way for logistic to deliver mortar shells to Ukriane via Bangladesh. Though, all can be possible

Locals from seashore settlement Lazurne in Kherson oblast report two missiles at 1:30 of night hit "Сhaika" (eng. Gull) pension, where about 350 Russian servicemen were deployed. Also they write as if Russians in previous day was launching missiles on UKR-controlled territory from their settlement. Reportedly all Lazurne in dense smoke because of the fire, but this is very strange because FIRMS doesn't show any fire in this place. But maybe update will be soon. Also now appeared reports about explosions in Chornobaivka and Chaplynka (the village almost on the boundary with Crimea), but should be confirmed

Indirect evidens that Russians managed to catch some element of UKR 19th missile brigade, armed with Tochka-U (and now partially likely with HIMARS). Senior lieutenant, officer-psychologist of this brigade, Olha Tymoshenko has died from burns in hospital in Zaporizhzhia on 5th of April. The car, in which she drove was hit. She was 27. Signed contract in 2019.

Russians "invented" our territorial defense battalions ver.2014. Though, our TDB-2014 had several BRDM-2 in recon platoon. I wonder, Russia has hundreds stored old BTR-70 and not so old BTR-80, which recently were substituted by BTR-82A and Tigrs. Why not arm theese battalions with theese APCs?

I havn't account on twitetr, so can't watch the video. But this is fact - BTRs can survive several RPG, western light AT-wepon (like Matador and other) or even ATGMs, because they just a metal box with engine and without dozens of powder charges for several-kg HE rouds inside. If HEAT doesnt' hit engine or 30 mm gun ammunition, there is just nothing to burn inside APC. You can recall Russian video from Mariupol, when the tank tried to pull damaged BTR-82A - it got three RPG-7 in front full, but didn't set fire. Also you can recall a video how UKR forces ambushed BTR-80 with some light western AT-weapon. BTR got two hits, but kept capability to move and only third hit to rear part caused fire.

If they will use "missile terror", they can launch missles in any "suspicious" targets in such way to inflict sensitive "collateral damage" among civilians. For example to target some facility in the center of some city, causing new dozens of victims and to claim they hit "place of nationalists deployment". Since Syria bombardments it's knowingly, where Russian bomb or missile explode - there was ISIS HQ. Russsians have enough old Kh-22 missiles for such terror. 450 kg of HE, 500 m CEP, interception almost impossible. Or Kh-101, Kh-555, which they can safely launch from unreachable ranges.

@sburke @Kinophile He has artillery signs, probably he was not deputy comamnder, but regimental artillery chief.

Not one Murz. Several Russian propagandists in social media started "to push in masses" narratives that victory is impossible without heavy strikes on civilaian infrastructure, big losses among civilians - because this can cause unrest and pressure on Zelenskyi to accept Russian terms for the sake of deaths and destructions stopping. This is first "throw in", next I, think, "heavy artilery" on TV will start to pump this opinion among wide masses of population. Among this message "we have to kill civilians" propagandists push another - "Russia can't loss the war, because prestige of country and army at stake, so we must acieve the victory with any methods and any cost" So, I think, in nearest time we should be ready to "missile terror". Today, for example, Russians deployed Grads on the territory of nuclear plant in Energodar and shelled Nikopol' city through the Kakhovka reservoir on Dnieper (9 km). 13 houses were damaged, 2 civilians killed, 1 wounded. Also was shelled town Chuhuiv in Kharkiv oblast - 3 killed, in the town Kostiantynivla, Donetsk oblast two ballistic missiles ruined two dozen rural houses, 2 killed. Not only propagandists sound this message. Here the audio from the meeting of colonel Oleg Korotkevich, acting commander of 41st CAA with parents of servicemen of 35th MRB (which lost own BTG during Siverskyi Donets crossing) I translate some of his sentences: - Can our president say tomorrow on TV: "Yes, I made a decision to stop special military operation" ? Yes, he can. But what then happens? All that is done, is all in vain? This is first. And all this nationalism, which will remain unfinished, will come here through the year. And it will be here, in Aleysk, Novoisibirsk, Tomsk, Tyumen', Moscow, anywhere... Only just because our state, like a beaten dog will have to leave from there, do you understand? We canno't afford it to ourselves, no matter how hard it is. Also he told that after heavy losses, 261 servicemen of brigade rejected to fight and they already dismissed, they will not receive own money and they will not get status of combat participators, which allow to have some privilege. Also, Korotkevich blamed paretnts and familiars of servicemen, issuing of information in internet about brigade losses - because of this they can't to form new battalion, because many people, who want to sign a contract, go to other brigade in Yurga (74th MRB)

Alchevsk, Luhansk oblast was HIMARSed. Reportedly two missiles struck the building and trolleybus depo, where Russian troops were deployed.

I've seen this info on other resourses, so I can't say Gerashchenko was first. So this info can be reliable.

Interesting news of local Russian media - 100 cossacks reinforced volunteer cossack detachment Kuban', operating in Ukraine. Knowingly, that Kuban' went to front on 4th of May in the strenghth of 400 cossacks. And in at the end of artilcle information issued that 52 cossacks already lost and 200 wounded. There is unknown either this information about Kuban' or about all cossack volunteers, participating in operations. At the end of May there was knowingly about four cossacks volunteer detachments (400-500 men each): - Don (formed on the base of 21st MRB and having BMP-2M). Since April were involved on right flank of Izium axis - Kuban' - since 12 of May were deployed in Zaporizhzhia oblast, then moved to Lysychansk direction - Tavrida - since 24th of April were on Donbas - Yermak - since 15th of MAy were in Luhansk oblast. Since the mid of June Don-2 detachment began to form. And here is typical personnel of cossack units - some of them returned for rest to Samara In addition about volunteer units, which substitute real mobilization So called "BARS" battalions, formed from retired servicemen of Soviet and Russian army (BAttalion of ReServists), as well as from veterans of war on Donbas - in present time there is knmowingly abot at least 20 such battalions, which have names BARS-xx, so last known unit has #20. According to some information sucj battlioins already 40, but probably rest 20 are forming now. From theese 20 battalions three formed by SDD (Donbas Volunteers Union), rest - under control of MoD. SDD battalions have own names - Oryol (Bars-9), Ryurik (Bars-13), Grom (Bars-20) On the photo - chevron of BARS-12 battalion. Also looks like each Russian region have to form own battalion. Mostly this is autonomous repuplics, like Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Northern Osetia etc, but theese battlions were formed and in some "pure Russian" oblasts. Some republics like Tatarstan already formed two battalions, so we have estimate +85 battalions more in the strength about 450 men each. But more realistic maybe the number 50 battalions.

Kherson area two days ago - FIRMS layer on Deepstate map. Dark Red dots - fires within last 6 hours. Yes, Russians have satellites, but they can't monitor situation real-time. There it's need a time to recognize satellite shot, to asses the threat, to develop some counter-measures, to send orders down. etc. Also Russian military machine is very slow-reacting. But anyway, don't expect large offensive in WWII style. At least to the mid of Autumn, when lend-lease will work, when we will saturate our troops with armored vehicles, artillery, when more trained and re-trained units can be moved to frontline. Until this you will hard positional withstanding, artillery shellings, counter-battery fire, strikes on enemy ammo depots and command centers - all this, which allow to grind as much enemy as possible, to reduce their artilelry potential and to harden logistic. On the background of this will be possible some tactical offensive actions, which if successful can develop in "semi-operative". But until the Autumn - only all "infiltrate, disrupt, strike with small armord forces, consolidarte, repeat". I would be add before "infiltrate" the word "hammered with artillery".

At the dawn next Russian ammo dump was HIMARSed in Skarhivka, Luhansk oblast (27 km north from Siverodonetsk). Locals write at 3:20 they heard BOOM and about 30 minutes of intensive detonations, then level of explosions became low, but they was lasting until 7:00 of morning

Kraken detachment raid in Bilohorivka village 12th or 13th of July, Luhansk oblast. The same village on Siverskyi Donets, which became mass grave after Russian river crossing - there is other Bilohorivka on the road Bakhmut - Lysychansk. According to this video Kraken claimed they engaged elements of 24th Spetsnaz brigade. They captured two Russians (thoug, red tapes on one fighter likely shows he belongs to LPR). Also one fighter of Kraken was injured

This guy is civil volunteer, supplying SOF units and he claims German MARS-2 launchers already two days work in Ukraine