Haiduk

I think this is second. Not so electricity and water - this can be delivered by volunteers (food and generators), but abscent of heating in buildings, especially in the cities and towns will be heavy problem. Nobody will repair heating systems now. Even if we will liberate this territories, also nobidy will repair this in winter. Though many locals don't want to leave. In villages they have own homesteads, cows, chickens, they can use the stove with wood. And many of locals are indifferent to question "whose flag is over". They wait only one - stop on shooting.

Situation with moving and deployment of Russian troops on south is continuosly changing, so Konstantin Mashovets offered own updated review on tomorrow. For a while here DONBASIZATION of the battle for Donbas - part 2. Bakhmut area. After Avdiika most hot place now is Bakmut, where Russian shifted own efforts after failure to breakthrough to Siversk from Lysychansk and to Barvinkove - Sloviansk from Izium. Here we can see the same "donbasization" - most of Russian troops either moving to second line or moving to south without R&R. Their place seize LDPR units. On Bakmut direction operates former Popasna grouping "East", having three tactical groups 1. Yakovlivka - Soledar direction. 3 BTGs (one of them in second echelone) - 102ns MRR regiment of 150th MRD and 6th Cossack MRR of LPR. Likely have a task to outflank Bakmut from the north, operating from Striapivka. 2. Bakhmut direction. 5 BTGs (one of them in second echelone). Most dangerous group, which already came close to the city, after capturing Pokrovske village or at least southern part of it. They will try to burst into the city directly, ramming of our defense. For this they have BTG of 26th tank regiment of 47th tank division. Other troops - BTGs of 31st air-assault brigade and 5rd MRB "Oplot" of DPR Both theese groups have artillery support from two tactical groups (likely battalions) of 147th SP-howitzer regiment of 2nd Guard Motor-rifle division. 3. Kodema direction. Have a task in cohesion with northern part of Donetsk-Horlivka group to break through from Vershyna to Zaitseve and from partillay captured Semyhirya to Kodema in order to push off UKR troops further to Kurdiumivka and outflank Bakhmut from south. This group mostly consist of PVC BTGs and elements of 5th MRB "Oplot" of DPR, which substitute Russian regulars. In villages Striapivka, Volodymyrivka and Trypillia 4 conscripts rifle battalions (RB on the map) are deployed - they don't participate in attacks yet, but they will be sent into the grinder, when group 2 will enter to Bakhmut Some update about northern part of Donetsk group, attacking from Dolomitne and Novoluhaske power plant. Yesterday I wrote in has 4-5 BTGs of 40th and 336th naval infantry brigades - already not. Marines are moved to second line and part of them already on the route to south. So, 3rd MRB "Berkut" of DPR and tank battalion "Dizel", probably with PVC.

On the Navy Day Putin signed new Maritime doctrine. According to it, national interests of Russia spread on whole World ocean and zones of theese interests divided on critical, important and other Critical: internal sea waters, territorial sea, exclusive econimic zone and it continental shelf, Arctic basin (inclusing Northern Sea Way), Sea of Okhotsk, Russian waters of Caspian sea Inportant: Black sea, Azov sea, Eastern part of Middeterranian sea, Black Sea passages, Baltic and Kuril passages, areas of world sea traffic lines. Russia has "indisputable right" for military presence and using of forces and troops for defending of own national intersts in any point of World Ocean. Priorities - development of hi-tech shipbuilding on Far East, including building of air carriers, and large ships and vessels for Arctic mastreing Like illustration of theese conceptions - the poster with Navy Day congratulation, which depicts US George Bush class carrier

Well, looks like Putun is going to open "second front" on Balakans? Top-member of Serbian "Progressive party" Vladimir Dzhukanovich write in own twitter "I guess more and more, Serbia will be forced to start denazification of Balkans. I would like to be wrong" In Kosovo meanwile tensions are raising between Albanian government and Serbs, living in northern party of country. They buid barricades and block roads. Some sources shared unconfirmed information that Serbian army is on hight alert. @CHEqTRO

Vadaturksyi was never actively involved in big politic, limiting himself by Mykolaiv oblast. On background of other oligarchs he looked much better. He didn't exploitate old Soviet actives, he created almost from zero own sucessfull business in shipbuilding, grain storages, grain logistic. He actively sponsored development of Mykolaiv oblast and towns, where he established own enterprises. Since 2014 he actively support UKR army. Of course, he wasn't an angel, because in 90th and further it was impossible to make big money in Ukraine without evading of taxes, corruption and ties with criminals. But if at least half of our reachmen were like Vadaturskyi, we would be live in completely other country. I read an opinion, that Vadaturskyi developed new logistic for Ukrainin grain export in war conditions. Hard to say either his death was deliberated or accidental. Russians shelled Mykolaiv with Smerch or Tornado-S unguided missiles. So doubtly this was precision strike to kill businessman. And on the place of cottadge site, where is Vadaturskyi's house, in Soviet times located military unit, which was removed and cottadges were built there instead. So, Russians could worked out again with outdated maps.

Large explosion and fire somewhere in Kherson oblast. According to Arvelleg twitter geolocation this is filming from the left bank of Dnieper and a fire and smoke probably in the area of Kachkarivka village on the right bank, 39 km NE from Nova Kakhovka

"Kartograf", "Orlan-20", "Ptero" - conditional names of this Russian UAV with 80 Mp cameras for detail terrain recon in FSB service. It's only knowingly this device was developed by AFM-Servers company as mulipurpose UAV and one of modifications was developed for FSB. But this UAV wasn't officially introduced, so nobody knows it real name. The name "Ptero" is derived from the system of automatical guidance and control PteRobot, developed by the same company and used in this UAV family. During war on Donbas Russia visually lost 6 such UAVs, and since Feb 24 they lost two other, including this one. Also two "Kartografs" were shot down by Turkey's F-16 in 2015 and 2019, and one crashed in Lithuania in 2016. Photo of probably "Kartograf" remains after this shot How it looks. This one was emergency landed or supressed and landed by UKR EW in 2017

Russian journalust, staging repaired bridge in Nova Kakhovka, accidentally filmed destroyed Russian communication vehicle Redut-2US (digital radio relay comm and wireless broadband networks) Previously it was mistaken for EW assset Repellent-1

Russians hold some repair works on Antonivskyi bridge

The second strike on Melitopol for today. The first was at 1:30 of night on the city outskirts, locals have wriiten about detoation sounds. The second was about hour ago on the airtfield. Alchevsk, Luhansk oblast - yestrdays evening the second strike at yacht club area, being struck day ago. Russian missile strike from Alchevsk this night - Iskanders on Bakmut, Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk. 13 missiles total, according to local reports

Maybe. But Russian generals can think so too. I believe our General Staff knows what they do, because taking into account what forces Russians are moving now to the south, the bear can tear off the trap and to catch the hunter himself...

Iraq media Sabreen News issued information, that Azerbaidzhan could give to Ukraine 32 guided bombs QFAB-250LG (upgrading of dumb bomb FAB-250), which they used with success during Nagornyi Karabakh war as Su-25 payload. But there is no official confirmation. Also it is doubtly UKR Su-25 can use guided bombs, because even on upgraded version Su-25M1 wasn't any upgrades of laser targeting system "Klyon" which useful only for Kh-25 and Kh-29 guided missiles. More likely they can be dropped from Su-24M bombers, but I don't know about compatibility of their inbuilt Kayra-24 laser/TV targeting system with this equipment In Ukraine also was an attempt to make upgrade of dumb FABs to guide bombs (I can't recall when exactly), but MoD rejected this program, because "too expensive".

Hypothetical map of UKR progress near Izium from WarMonitor twitter. There are no official confirmations, and only hints in some our twitters, but from reports of General Staff from this area we can see, that combat actions are developing near villages, which were occupied by Russians several weeks ago

@Battlefront.com "DONBASIZATION" of battle for Donbas (based mostly on selections from Konstantin Mashovets review and slightly on my vision) Now we are entering in new phase of war. Russian offensive on Donbas with goals of capturing Sloviansk and Kramatorsk almost failed. This happened because of strong resistance of UKR troops on Izium axis and on Siversk direction, which foiled Russian plans to conduct combimed strike by Izium and Lyman groups (latter should cross the Siverskyi Donets after seizing of Siversk and Raihorodok). They, of course will continiue this operation but even they will achieve some goals and push off UKR troops from Donbas, this will not lead to that political outcome, which expect in Kremlin. By analogy with "vietnamization" of war in 70th in Vietnam, now we can see "donbasiztion" of battle for Donbas. Russia is shifting own military goals and now moving own troops on other direction, leaving LDPR froces now as main component of Donbas offensive. Of course, Russian troops will be also present, but their support now mostly will be in artillery, aviation and air defense. Their regular ground troops now will play more role of assistants, than leading force. Russian offensive, main efforts of which directed on Avdiivka and Bakhmut, shows, that mainly the enemy now use LDPR troops and PMCs. Enemy continue attacks on next directions: Maryinka - recently assaults didn't bring the enemy nothing except heavy losses. Maryinka is ruined, but stands. And in last weeks UKR troops even pushed off DPR forces almost to limts of Olexandrivka village. For three days of intensive airdtrikes, artillery shellings and assaults DPR/Russian troops could retake about 400 m of land (there was a video from their side). Also enemy activated own shellings and attack norther from Maryinka operating from Staromykhaylivka to UKR controlled Krasnohorivka town. Avdiivka - unlike in previous times, when the enemy initially assaulted the town directly through industrial zone (so called "promka") from Yasynuvata direction and in second time tried to break through northern from the town, in that time they are trying to outflank Avdiivka from the north, attacking from Novoselivka Druha area through N-20 road to Krasnohorivka village (not to be confused with Krasnohorivka town from above), and from the south, attacking from Spartak-Vesele line on Opytne, Vodiane and Pisky - since Donetsk airport battle in 2014-2015 UKR positions didn't move a meter back there. Despite of heavy bombardments and artillery devastation, for three days DPRs have too minor sucess, causing lamentationds of Khodakovskiy, which were posted by Grigb. Some our sources wrote, UKR forces in first day have limited number of artillery and ammunition to it, so Russian/DPR advantage was total (they even claimed they destroyed almost all UKR arty and ammo dumps). But from next day situation became better, UKR arty has struck several targets in Donetsk and prevented DPR troops from further advance. On this two directions involved next forces: DPR: 1st "Slavianskaya" MRB, 100th Republican Guard brigade (mix of VDV anf National Guard), 9th naval infantry MRR, 11th MRR "Vostok", 15th international brigade "Pyatnashka" (indeed about reinforced battalion strength, formed mostly from Russian/CIS volunteers, many from occupied Abkhazia), artillery brigade "Kolchuga" (former "Kalmius"), 1st separate tank battalion "Somali" (before 2022 it was motor-rifle assault battalion), 4th separate tank battlion "Avgust" (this one from LPR forces), 1919th special forces battalion "named after of Alexandr Nevskiy", 1539th battalion "Arkhangel Mikhail" (latter two are not conscripts, but reservists and volunteers) and other units, including conscripts and some special police and MGB units. Russia: 3 BTGs from 114th and 143rd MRR of 127th MRD (Far East) of 5th CAA, Eastern Military District Bakhmut - here we can see two enemy groups wich assaulting our positions from east and south in Semyhirya direction. Southern enemy group operates from Dolomitne - Novoluhanske area and consists of elements of 3rd MRB "Berkut" and 2nd separate tank battlion "Dizel" + 4-5 BTGs of Russian 40th naval infantry brigade (Pacific Fleet) and 336th naval infantry brigade (Baltic Fleet) + 2 PMC BTGs. Eastern group operates from Vidrodzhennia - Myronivskyi section to Vershyna - Semyhirya in composition of 2 PMC BTGs + some Russian ground forces, probably also from 127th MRD. For weeks of heavy fights Russians could push off UKR troops from power plant and partilally capture Vershyna village. All what northern - Soledar and Siversk directions already other grouping, actions of which are out of this article. I just can say on that directions we can see almost the same tendetions - LPR+PVC gradually substituting Russian troops. So, where all Russian forces are departing? To the south. There will be huge Russian offensive and decisieve battle of this war. About this tomorrow Because of the fronline of this actions is more than 100 km I can't post full map, just only most intensive part - Maryinka - Avdiivka (40 km)

About 12 000, before some developments, about which I will write tomorrow

I posted about Kherson about week ago. In short - main forces there 7th air assault division (mountain) - at least 5-6 BTGs, then 205th MRB almost in full composition, BTG of 34th MRB (mountain), 11th air-assault brigade (at least 2 BTGs), 126th coastal defense MRB (also 2 BTGs), 127th recon brigade, about 1-1.5 BTGs ot 42nd MRD, moved from Zaporizhzhia, elements of 98th VDV division, moved from Donbas, at least four battalions of LDPR conscripts. Other lesser units, artllery, AD. In last days Russia moved many troops to Kherson and I will write about this. Up to 12-15 BTGs total, not counting LDPR conscripts

It is hard to say. It is obviously Zelenskiy's team after Russian "dress rehersal" in 2021 understand that war is close, and as consequense of this became Zaluzhnyi appointment instead Khomchak, which openly "pacificated" and "optimized" UKR army, openly told that UKR will never win in the war with Russia, entered money awarding for "truce executing" in JFO and had a conflict with Minister of defense Taran, which failed State Defence Ordering program in 2020-21. I more than belive that in 2020 Zelenskyi and Yermak could have some secret preliminary agreements with Russia how to finish the war (his strange visit to Oman has born many conspiracy), so in this time Ukraine was making several tactical concessions to Moscov, which summoned angry in society (like "Wagnergate"). But contray to expectations of Zelenskiy's office, Russia kept tough position and didn't want make any concessions from own side. So, I think exactly in 2021 during big Russin "maneuvers" Zelenskiy and Yermak understood, that any peace agreements with Russia will be impossible, so "hawks" were assigned, and active dipomacy work has begun for westren AT-systems receiveing and future support. There is other problem - there are more than rumors that direct access to Zelenskyi is possible only via President's Office (Yermak). So, Information, which president receives, initially interpreted by President Office. Former chief of SBU Bakanov, for example, using personal friendship with Zeklenskiy, could bypass Yermak and this caused hidden conflict between him and Yermak for influence on president. So, main reason of Bakanov dismissal is result of Yermak's victory, than real fails of service. Zelenskiy maybe understand the war is close, but he is not politic, and completely relies on own "grey cardinal". In 2019 he apperared as naive pacifist whith words "I already have finished the war in my mind" or "I never will give order to solve Donbas question in military way", "I have to look in Putin's eyes and I believe we can make a deal". I can't judge is Yermak is Russian influencer or not, but he is obviously was a source of scepticism of prsident about NATO, EU and US warnings. Some people in President's Office had a duties diring Yanukovich times and by their support (and of course by "yes" of Yermak) influent lawer Andrey Portnov, strong opponent of western course of Ukriane and bright enemy of Maidan returned to Ukraine. So, I think not so "pro-Russian", but "pro-System, anti-Maidan" wing of President's team was forning mistrust of Zelenskiy to western organizations, by mesages about "western interfering in Ukraine" (relating to corruption) and "external control over Ukraine". So, Zelenskyi to the last wanted to believe that he can avoid the war and all warnings is a games of the West, which wanted to use Ukriane in own geopolitical goals. But, I think this opinion at least partially has a right for life. There is no friends between states, there is only matching of interests.

Alas, not. He is real "ruler" when Zelenskyi is only "reign". Yermak appoints own people on key duties and this is concerning situatin. Though, on other hand Zaluzhnyi and Reznikov were appointed by Zelenskyi also from Yermak offer. I think he is not so "pro-Russian agent", but "pro-System agent" in worse meaning of this word (corruption, "own people" on fund sterams, mutual responsibility between politics, larege business and law protection structures etc). But in current terms his skills in protecting the System can ne useful. What we will have in the future - this is a question.

You should take into account that Kryvonos is not only military, but also political figure in Ukraine, and he has tensions with Zelenskiy's team, so he can be politically biased in own assesmnts. I believe, that in Zelenskiy's office really can be enough maybe not direct Russian agents, but influencers, but the words of Kryvonos about "no reactions on warnings" this is not true. For some reason he didn't say that most troops since 8th of Feb already moved to appointed areas as if for "maneuvers". And of course evacuation of our aviation obviously weren't separate decisions of aviation brigade commanders. From other military carefuly told in own interviews, we can tell not about "oversliping the war", but about mistake in assesments of probable Russian strike. Our politics as if considred Russians will attack only on Donbas and probably on NE - Kharkiv-Sumy and couldn't maintain invasion from many directions. Why politics so stubbornly though that Russians will attack only on Donbas, it's a real question. Because military really warned that Kyiv and Crimea directions will be active with high probability too. Kryvonos also warned about Hostomel, like a weak point of Kyiv for two weeks before invasion. Though, on 24th Feb some screen forces anyway were deployed north of Kyiv and they delayed Russian offensive, so this is wrong to say "lidership did nothing and ignored all".

This night strikes: 1. Pervomaysk, Luhansk oblast, occupied since 2014. Ammo dump Translation of local TG : There is impact in the town, the fightres of Pervomaysk Emergency service arrived, but dentonation doesn't allow to extinguish the fire. 2. Alchevsk, Luhansk oblast, occupied since 2014. Maybe deployment of troops/vehicles and small ammo dump on the territory of local yacht club. Military medic buses came to evacuate wounded 3. Energodar, Zaporizhzhia oblast. Russian vehicles destroyed on the parking near local hotel. Probably loitering munition strike or diversion. Russians claimed "humanitarian cargo for citizens" was destroyed, but this is likely popcorn is detonating on the video %) 4. Bruskine, Kherson oblast, Inhulets bridghead area. General Staff claimed Russian BTG HQ of 34th MRB was hit by artillery. 5. Video of Kherson railway bridge damages

Nova Kakhovka now Mospyne, Donetsk oblast, not far from Ilovask railway node, being struck yestreday

Lack of time, so briefly about objects being struck yesterday: Shymshynivka, Luhansk oblast (this one probably was two days ago). Transshipment vehicles base 12 km east from Alchevsk town, using since 2014. No photos, but FIRMS showed a fire there Ilovaisk, Donetsk oblast. Main railroad node for ammunition for DPR forces. Military train with ammunition destroyed after arrival. Oil base struck too. Ralways damaged. Video filmed from Khartsyzk town. Brylivka, Kherson oblast, 45 km SE from Kherson, right bank of Dnieper. Ammunition dump Klimovo, Bryansk oblast Russia. Looks like Grad or some heavier hit the area of Russian military unit Komysh-Zoria, Zaporizhzhia oblast, railway between Tokmak and Mariupol. Diversion of resisstance, railroad damaged.

Has Deepstate language choice at last? Useful map, but I could't post it here because it hadn't English language

Interesting twitt about commercial drones vs EW and anti-drone rifles from our SOF fighter Translation of this and comments: My air recons with Autels now slightly in the ass. The powerful drones, but have a problems with "head". EW has been killing them. Curiously enough Mavics (DJI) show better survivability... Yes, during the tests with antidrone rifle, Mavics just loss a picture, but keeps a control. But Autels are immediately turned on landing mode or return to home mode (But anyway anti-drone rifles are BS). 79th brigade's Autel had just altitude control failure and fu..ck hit on the ground.

Kalmyk, not Buriat. 15th territorial defense battalion "Brianka/USSR" of LPR. Citizen of Russia