hcrof

Civilian "Girkin" about RU Fuel and Energy Complex
 

I would expect that tin roof to be torn off by the overpressure wave (or subsequent suction), even if the blast was directed upwards by soft ground, but those guys do seem to be reattaching it so maybe that did happen. But the facade of the red building is spotless! 

Found RU AF assessment by sort of well know RU analyst Kramnik. I would not trust him with anything foreign but regarding RU he is ok (he does have connection to RU forces and tries to be impartial, for a Russian)  

Regarding Belarus Nukes discussion, here is quote from recent Putin-Luka meeting:
 

Civilian "Girkin" about RU gold industry
 

Part 2

Girkin fresh assessment. part 1

Dang, the guy wrote a book in Tweet form. Well worth reading though, many thanks.

New assessment from Murz. I think he shows what @The_Capt already explained.
 

The State Duma proposed to allow military contracts immediately after the draft
They are preparing to send kids to the fight. Well, not to the fight, just very close, to the areas UKR is going to pass after penetration of forward line. 
 

@Battlefront.com
Here is some recommendations from UKR frontline soldier for your collection
ATTENTION TO ALL, WHO FIRST TIME COMES TO EASTERN FRONT
1. Enemy has significant advantage in aviation and artillery.
2. There are no more stupid conscripts, but really trainned murderers, whick know own work
3. Our positions have been betraying by locals and drones ajust fire
4. Vehicles are target #1
RECOMMENDAIONS FOR DOGFACE
1. Dig in deep, but never wide.
2. Dig in in the places with additional protection (tree) or with obstacles for enemy artillery (hill,railwau embarkment)
3. Dig several positions, join its after in the trench (if enemy allow you to do this)
4. Do not concentrate many people in one shelter - no more 2-3
5. For rest and cover to dig a grave. Yes, a grave with steps (on the photo) for two. While the first on position, the second rests in the grave, then change.
6. Evacuation point must be maximally hidden, to make a pathway and the hole for aid. In the hole only combat medic have to work, you shouldn't be there.
7. Do not bring with you neither too much ammunitions nor any other supply - its betrays you. Get out the trash - bury even cigarette butts.
8. Prepare good off-road jeep, take away all superflous, take away lights and give NV device to the driver. Let he stays in 5 km from your positions. This will save most of your WIAs.
9. Ammunition and supply delivers when jeep drives to take WIAs or if you have a need in resupply. Two days reserve of ammunition and supply for comany have to be always near the jeep. 
10. BMPs and BTRs are also have to be in the rear, dug in deeply and disguished or hidden. They drive to the battle only and dont's carry people! Your trucks you can shot out yourself, thus will be less victims. But better hand over its to artillerists. 
11. Comms, steady encriptes comms and interaction with tanks and artillery. Infantry finds targets, recons ajust arty with drones, arty fires. But artillerists are people too and they also primary target for the enemy. They will not stand-by continuously and they also have a limit of ammunition and supply. 
12. Do not deploy on infantry positions ATGMs or MANPADs. Deployits aside or behind, but never on positions. If this stuff works at least once, your position will grounded.  
13. Most important!!!! The time for supply it's twilight (dawn or dusk). Safe time you will understand yourself.  And do this with jeeps with engine volume no more 2,5 l
14. Despite on written above, the war is dictating own rules. At this war the best are speed and mobility. And remember - they don't know how much of you, until you expose yourself. And during this time eliminate as more of orcs as possible, while they will be probe. Best way - to shot, when you see the enemy, and not hear his bullets. In this way they check your nerves. When the come close, try to kill as more as possible in order they will not call or adjust own artillery, because without accurate adjustment their arty is skew and only something random can hit your positin.   
 
The "grave with steps" for R&R
 

Their drill and locker layouts will be up to scratch at least 😉

RU started to feel pain of NATO Arty
 

So, Ukrainans instead to gather 5 millions $ for three Bayraktars for a week, gathered 6 millions $ for three days, so Serhiy Prytula fund will order four TB2 Bayraktars
But Back-and-Alive fund suddenly strikes back!  In this day they claimed about finishing a gathering of 8,5 millions $ for ordering of 10 UKR PD-2 UAV complexes of UKRSPETSSYSTEMS company (one PD-2 complex is control station and two UAVs), so 20 PD-2 UAVs soon will target Russian logistic hubs and artillery positions in deep rear for our PzH2000 or HIMARS. Reportedly UAvs already ordered and probably partially produced.
PD-2 was developed in 2020 as deep modernization of PD-1, which already use in UKR units (mostly in recon battalions). PD-2 can fly up to 220 km under operator control or up to 1000 km on preset route or 10 hours on 5000 m of ceiling. It equipped with thermal camera with 5x zoom and day camera 30x zoom, both are gyrostabilzed. Except optic equipment it can carry up to 3 kg of bombs load (2-3 RKG-1600, for example), so can be used as light bomber, but with more long range, than octocopter R18, using for strikes.
 
 

Russian propaganda pearls:
23rd of June. In red circle a number of destroyed UKR artillery/mortar systems

24th of June.

3002 - 2088 = 914 artillery systems for one day!
 

This is Alchevsk, Luhansk oblast, occupied since 2014. Russian AD works, but missile failed.
This night several UKR missiles (Tochka-U? HIMARS?) hit another large ammunition storage in Stakhanov (new name Kadiivka), Luhansk oblast, occupied since 2014, on territory of SVZ (Stakhanov railway carriage works). Locals reported about all-night detonations in that place
 

 

I think it was a political decision. RU started to spread info that UKR command intends to sacrifice the defenders and that the situation of defenders is hopeless. It seem UKR command countered RU claims with a clear public statement.
RU propagandists like to play on UKR public mistrust of UKR officials. I personally believe that at least half of the internal conflict between government and people as well as corruption image of UKR government is caused by incessant RU propaganda. It is like one of their main propaganda strategy - Yes, our RU government is corrupt but yours is worse, here is tons of fakes to back it up! That's why all RU channels as well as RU sites must be blocked everywhere you have sizable RU population.  
 

Found interesting attempt of LDNR volunteers to publish first version of drone manual. I roughly translated it so you can get a snippet at LDNR drone operations. AFAIK originally it was UKR tactics but LDNR learned them and adopted. BTW as you can see, they started an unofficial program of training RU regulars. In square brackets my own comments.
@Battlefront.com FYI
 

Assessment regarding current RU push from Murz
 

Sorry, I have not figured out how to embed tweets here yet. So, here is the link to interesting quote.
For a month RU arty is noticeably decreasing volume of fire DNLR D-20 now doing most of the work Looks like majority of Msta guns either run out of tube resource or got broken.

It does have a certain feel of adjusted reality to better suite her narrative. Shortages of all there mentioned goods - buckwheat, sugar and pads are well known internet memes. They are similar to western toilet paper shortage meme.
It looks like dissatisfied by overall situation liberal woman decided to let steam off and poke nationalists with the problem of shortages. But for some reason she decided to improve her story with a bit of fiction.
My personal assessment is the situation in RU is like in this picture

RU consumer situation is relatively better than we expect given the circumstances.  Everything else is much worse than we expect. 
RU government considers the consumer situation to be critical for overall political stability (you can lie about everything else far longer than about what consumer see himself).  So, it employs various tricks and gimmicks to keep the situation above water. 
Everything else is much worse because I was told that almost every RU aspect of economy relies heavily on imported goods from West.
For example, I have close contact - top IT guy who works in RU Food industry (he did not manage to escape die to family reasons). He worked from sausage production to distribution of bottled water drinks and everything in between for top RU companies. 
Back in March he told me that RU Food Industry depended on Wester import like at least 80% and up to 90% in some cases. It simply cannot exist without West imports. He said right now industry was running on accumulated reserves and RU government pouring money and resources to patch it somehow. He expected that the whole situation would not last longer than August. 
Important disclaimer - take it with the grain of salt because while there is no question about his professional competence and knowledge, he is a [RU] liberal guy and he most probably massaged facts to better suit the [RU] liberal narrative. Still the RU economy dependence on western import is much greater than anybody thinks. As such, the overall situation is much worse than we expect.

Lost Armor talks. Fighter of LDPR forces tells he has seen 4 of 5 Ka-52 sorties only with incendiary rockets. Then he tells LDPR forces have a lack of ATGM missiles, so even too low number of videos of its usage in comparison with Stugna-P (diring position war 2016-2021 they posted much more ATGM launches, than now). Further he says artillery reduced own activity (unknown is he meant Russian or LDPR), D-20 of LDPR still work enough actively, when 2A65 Msta-B either knoked out or shot out own barrels. In comments somebody wrote Msta has 7500 shots resource, but this howitzers in UKR service did 9000 shots during 2014-2015 campagn and many of them had because of this the same accuracy like MLRS (dispersion increased too much)
  

We can reasonably, from an operations perspective, say "crazy" and "insane" but to (mis)quote another famous Russian leader, "Quantity has a quality all its own".

It's only really crazy if it somehow leads to an overall collapse or general failure of the (recast) objectives, which one could see if the concentration was leveraged by UA in counter-battery or the like (resulting in unsustainable losses of the concentrated RA artillery), but it appears that the RA is learning / adapting and that UA drone ops used to support destruction of RA artillery are waning in the main effort area due to more effective / more concentrated Russian air defense.
The arty concentration doesn't appear to be hurting the RA in other areas; they aren't advancing elsewhere but aren't materially losing ground either.
It seems to me that the RA is finally playing to its strengths, one of which is arty, and if inching gets the job done, then Putin gets harder to dislodge, like a tick burrowing in a little at a time.
Not trying to be argumentative, just thinking that when we use descriptions like the above we tend to underestimate how much fight is left in an opponent, leading to complacency.  
 
 

Translation: Izium area, Kharkiv obvlast, Ukraine. Our troops tried to attack with new-formed forces. It's turned out fu..d up. Those, who have seen yesterday numerous of helicopters from Valuyki toward Izium [means evacuation of heavy injured] - yes, this is it. No proofs [in sense "don't expect from me official confirmations, videos, sources, names etc"]

Translation:
So, what was it in the end? 
Kantima [Kantemirovskaya division] in big trouble
Several days ago UKR volunteer Roman Donik issued in own twitter documents of killed or captured Russians from this division - all 2001-2003 years of born. Looks like "elite" tank division replaced losses with very young soldiers. 
 

Hmm. I don’t really want to play paper, scissors, doctrine, but I’m not seeing it. There is no simultaneous  - or even sequential - effects being applied here. The Russians receive some artillery fire, and that’s it. There is no tactical dilemma for them to solve being described - they just have to avoid a bit of artillery fire then they can go back to having a snooze or a brew or whatever. It’s basically just harassing fire, or maybe immediate neutralisation but with no follow up.
In terms of a 21st Century version of anything, it seems like just a slightly modern take on All-Arms Call-For-Fire: recce dudes with a (tres moderne) pair of binos called in a few rounds on a target of opportunity, then went home.