hcrof

Murz posted that he had a difficult talk with his military superior (brigade commander) and removed the post under direct order/threat. Next, he wrote something that may be considered a suicide note. But he did post something that looked like soldier's report. Looking into it.

You make it sound like the border is a binary issue, which just plays into extremist talking points:
"Biden wants millions of brown trans rapists to cross the border because he is an evil person who hates white America - trump would shut it all down" 
Vs
"The fashists want to shoot Mexicans on sight so the solution is to not come up with any solution to the border because if bad people want something we should do the opposite "
Not helpful.

You make it sound like the border is a binary issue, which just plays into extremist talking points:
"Biden wants millions of brown trans rapists to cross the border because he is an evil person who hates white America - trump would shut it all down" 
Vs
"The fashists want to shoot Mexicans on sight so the solution is to not come up with any solution to the border because if bad people want something we should do the opposite "
Not helpful.

You make it sound like the border is a binary issue, which just plays into extremist talking points:
"Biden wants millions of brown trans rapists to cross the border because he is an evil person who hates white America - trump would shut it all down" 
Vs
"The fashists want to shoot Mexicans on sight so the solution is to not come up with any solution to the border because if bad people want something we should do the opposite "
Not helpful.

China would never ever do anything that jeopardized international waterways. This would directly cut into their trading revenue and they would bleed themselves.
 
Even if Putin wouldn't for once been lying and the pipe were operational tomorrow: a pipe has two ends and one end is closed. And it won't open again (at least not for natural gas).
Germany has long term contracts with other suppliers. We don't need Russian gas anymore. Even if it were politically possible to buy Russian gas again, it would take years before we would. That ship has sailed, working pipeline or not.
Drones of this size usually use Lithium-polymer (Lipo) batteries. Fully charged, they have 4.2V. If you care about the longevity of your batteries, you don't discharge them below 3.5V. If you go below that, you get a  'low battery' alarm (the threshold is of course adjustable).
If you don't care (and you don't for kamikaze drones) then you can suck them dry. But if the voltage gets too low, your control electronics will fail. Much of these electronics run at 3.3V so 3V is really close to the edge of losing the drone.

I don't spend time with drones, but I do spend time using the "wrong" type of batteries in things.  It's possible that the drones are all on low battery, or it could be that they're using batteries that run at a little lower voltage than whatever the drone was designed for.  There are lots of batteries that are "direct substitutes" with slightly different chemistries that run at lower cell voltages.  Some devices care a lot and won't work, while other devices just say "low battery" from the time you put it in to the time it runs out.

Interesting, it appears that the RU Nats (not Army) are coming to the conclusion that using flak suits with partial protection in addition to regular armor is currently optimal method to reduce assault infantry casualties caused by drone attacks. The suite consists of Kevlar sections that cover a large part of the body's non armor protected surface.  
They tried flak blankets (ineffective), flak shields (too cumbersome for assault troops), and flak suits with complete body protection (too heavy and uncomfortable).
 

You make it sound like the border is a binary issue, which just plays into extremist talking points:
"Biden wants millions of brown trans rapists to cross the border because he is an evil person who hates white America - trump would shut it all down" 
Vs
"The fashists want to shoot Mexicans on sight so the solution is to not come up with any solution to the border because if bad people want something we should do the opposite "
Not helpful.

Murz posted comment of his colleague
[EDIT] Funny story: Murz earlier declared that unless some RU propagandists (from the Guardians faction that badmouth him for several days) met his demands, he would publish the paper of the soldier (who attempted to submit it to the RU military prosecution office) today at 17:00. Guardians were ignoring him.
It is 18:12, and he is quiet. I'm really worried for him.

A notable detail in this video that’s gone viral this morning is that every single drone feed shows that each on is down to about 3% of power. It’s a fair guess that the Russians imagined this warehouse to be beyond the range of FPV: 
 

RDK just published post that they were working on freeing Navalny. 
They described a rather detailed plan. It looks reasonable for me.
 
[EDIT] for example here webcam shots


[EDIT 2] Looks like these guys are more powerful than we thought.
A foreword by RU partisan group
 

Not a, BMPT, a BREM. 
 

Hm, haven't found much about this in German news, except this article (in German):
https://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine--taurus-kehrtwende--ampel-fraktionen-erhoehen-druck-auf-scholz-34473170.html
 

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0QPb2M/sverige-skickar-stridsbat-90-till-ukraina
The new Swedish military aid package includes ($700 million )
▪ 10 Stridsbåt 90-class amphibious assault boats;
▪ 20 amphibious assault boats;
▪ underwater weapons (mines and torpedoes);
▪ a number of anti-aircraft systems such as Robot 70;
▪ anti-tank robots of the TOW model;
▪ grenade launchers with ammunition;
▪ artillery ammunition;
▪ hand grenades;
▪ Carl Gustaf grenade launchers;
▪ medical equipment;
▪ ambulances.
In addition, 
▪ $100M be spent on the purchase of military equipment through the funds, 
▪ $100M will be spent on new Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles for Ukraine.

https://t.me/censor_net/45708
 
 

Some analysis on the Battle of Irpin River (Feb-March 2022) by the British Army Review (54 page PDF). As well as the historical analysis it looks like it would be valuable for campaign designers.
Battle of Irpin River
I found it on Mick Ryan's twitter
 

From my limited observation 60-100 kmh helps to decrease the chance of hit There are unverified RU claims that with 100-120 kmh you can drive away from FPV  The second video  shows Avenger escaping from Lancet Keep in mind that piloting FPV is not easy - you need to compensate for example for the wind etc. Even tanks can benefit from speed, but I mostly see wheeled vehicles escaping attack. Here is quadracycle at full speed escapes the attack and we also can compare it with successful attack. RU claims that the current typical suicide FPV that operates at frontline has just 25 minutes (at longer range UKR use different noticeably slower drones). It does not mean that speed is 100% protection, but it does mean that speed helps.  [EDIT] Another good video of RU drone that was too slow.

Back to war assessment.
Let's have a look at battle damage of RDK M113 from Avdiivka. The M113 got hit by 1-2 RU FPV drones.
00:50-00:56 damage to fuel tank from fragments 01:00-01:10 damage to engine compartment from fragments 01:10-01:20 damage to heater from fragments There are a lot of floor shots to show blood from the wounded they were transporting 01:20 other vehicle (again damage from fragments) M113 was able to return to base Interesting, but the damage comes from fragments, not HEAT. It's possible that HEAT warheads aren't often used at that location or that the FPV drone trajectory isn't always optimal for HEAT, or it missed due to pure luck.
Conclusion
FPV damage is primarily caused by fragmentation and HEAT from 40mm grenades and RPG-7 type-rounds (in hindsight it is kind of obvious). The damage is moderate and may be considerably reduced by standard methods such as bar and ERA armor, as well as spall liners.
The most significant distinction between FPV and conventional rounds is that FPV may hit anywhere on the vehicle, whereas current militaries are primarily concerned with up armoring vehicles against standard Grenade and RPG trajectories.
Reasons for extreme effectiveness of UKR drones
If we look at RU AFVs there are three distinct groups:
Highly flammable tanks and BMPs Low flammability yet weakly armored MT-LB Completely unarmored wheeled vehicles The exceptional success of UKR drones is due to the inherent vulnerability of RU vehicles and the RU's virtually total lack of a mass uparmouring program.
Let's see agent Murz opinion
Other reason for FPV effectiveness
Unlike in low-intensity combat, once a vehicle is disabled, it is effectively gone due to arty fire. So, FPV drones just need to disable the vehicle, not to inflict major damage.
And the FPV drone does not even need to disable the vehicle; instead, it may damage the sights, external electronics, and unmanned turret. In low-intensity conflict, such damage is not critical; in this war, it is effective mission kill because there are many other weapons systems around.
What is the point of your top-of-the-line unmanned turret if drone with the cost of 400 bucks can destroy it quickly. 
New paradigm of AFV up armoring
Apart from other things (APS, AD, Drone EW) we need to change the paradigm of uparmouring.
As much of the vehicle's surface as feasible should be armored to survive a 40mm grenade Engine must be protected even better than other compartments (withstand RPG-7) External components, such as electronics, turrets, and weapons, should be resistant against 40mm grenades or have the ability to be moved inside the vehicle quickly. Spall liners is a must. Crew members may benefit from a full-body flak suit. Previously, there was a possibility of receiving few RPG strikes during missions. Now you may be struck by dozens of FPVs. Each of them may do small damage, but fragments could eventually strike, for example, the driver leg, making the vehicle temporally immobilized and vulnerable to arty fire. Wheeled light vehicles
Let's look at RU recommendation for wheeled and unarmored vehicles 
So, the speed of the vehicle increases survivability. That means steps must be taken to ensure that logistics and unarmored wheeled vehicles can travel at the highest possible speed. Roads need to be improved and fixed. Drivers need to be trained. Vehicles need to have better accident protection (due to obvious decrease of safety).

I wonder if precision artillery rounds like Excalibur are going to get rarer - a drone can do the same job for a tiny fraction of the price. But dumb artillery, especially mortars, will be around for a while. 

Murz is seriously upset now.
Military production - Russia is winning that part.

Meanwhile UKR colleague of Mashovets reports that RU become active along the whole front and are not planning to make operational pause after capture of Avdiivka.
It certainly looks like The main battle started just now.

A bit of Murz hysterics (he was talking to close friend)
The Russian celebration of Avdiivka's capture is in full swing.

Airplanes. RU demonstrated extreme sensitivity to airplane losses. 
 
They pulled WW2 howitzers out of storage. RU mil reporter Saponkov reported on Feb 3
Also, UKR claim that RU are replacing losses with mostly towed guns (not necessarily with D-1s) slowly downgrading to WW2 level.
 
The infantry is best transported by up armored APC. Even MRAP is ok as it can get in out quickly Close support is best provided by AFV with automatic weapon. The best is Bradley with two men crew. MRAP with 50 cal will do the job Tank (preferably with HESH rounds) provides long range (2-3 km) fire support against hardened targets (concreted bunkers) using drones for adjustment The assault technique is as follows
FPV drones take out crew manned weapons (ATGMs, HMGs etc)  around objective 155mms pound the objective Tank demolishes bunkers and other hardened targets APCs with Bardleys arrive at objective and clear out remains of the enemy The biggest difference is APS with ability to counter drones. No APS, no difference. Well, crew survivability of modern AFVs increases overal AFV formation morale and aggressiveness.