TheVulture

Does it protect from counter-battery fire if it slides far enough?
...
Anyway, any expectations of anything changing due to weather? How well do minefields work when frozen? Can vehicles cross rivers now? Do drones work worse in the cold? 
Of course the currently spicier part of Ukraine is in the south and that one isn't frozen because the temperatures are more stable near the sea.

It's one of the most common failure modes in foreign policy: we (for which ever country you are talking about as 'we') tend to anticipate other countries actions in terms of what we are most afraid of them doing, not in terms of what their interests are and what they are trying to achieve. (That, and viewing all unfriendly nations as being mutually co-operating rather than having their own tensions and conflicts with each other).
Hence all the silly talk last year about "is the Ukraine war going to prompt China to invade Taiwan?" No - China isn't remotely ready to do that (I'm of the view that China views invading Taiwan as very much a last resort option when all the better ideas have been exhausted), and nothing about Russia invading Ukraine makes China's chances any better. It's just that America's sense of crisis would be hit most acutely by a China-Taiwan conflict, so that's what they start to anticipate.

It's one of the most common failure modes in foreign policy: we (for which ever country you are talking about as 'we') tend to anticipate other countries actions in terms of what we are most afraid of them doing, not in terms of what their interests are and what they are trying to achieve. (That, and viewing all unfriendly nations as being mutually co-operating rather than having their own tensions and conflicts with each other).
Hence all the silly talk last year about "is the Ukraine war going to prompt China to invade Taiwan?" No - China isn't remotely ready to do that (I'm of the view that China views invading Taiwan as very much a last resort option when all the better ideas have been exhausted), and nothing about Russia invading Ukraine makes China's chances any better. It's just that America's sense of crisis would be hit most acutely by a China-Taiwan conflict, so that's what they start to anticipate.

Im conviced the only way to really win this is completely outproduce russia in the drone department. If the monthly fpv strikes happened per week/..day across the front, the war would quickly become unsustainable, even in the manpower department. 
If there is a drone or three for every little hideyhole, no trench can be held and reinforced and the mines dont matter all that much anymore.
Bonus point Id get to watch a lot more russians blow up instead of the occasional F16 flyby.
 

If you want to get a reaction just say “we will spend 2% on defence, as soon as you spend 2% on stopping climate change”

Pal, sometime when I read your last posts I recall Denetor, who looked at palantir during a siege of Minas-Tirith %) Of course, we had very hard year and broken hopes, but I not shure that all go to complete bad scenario. What I fully agree - when Russia asks "Iran, give me 1000 Shakeds!", Iran answers "here you are!", when Russian asks N.Korea "Kim, give me 10000000 shells", N.Korea (China) answers "Here you are". But when Ukraine asks "Allies! Give me... Patriots, Leos, Abrams, shells" aliies answer "well, we will support you till the end! But... we need to gather Ramstein through two months, conduct discussions, discuss all pro- and contra... And memento escalation of course" 
And only small Denmark silently says "Psss... I heard you need arty? We have some cool stuff. Take all wahat we have. We anyway will not make war with Norway or Germany"

Ya, I gotta agree.  His track record would make him one helluva deep plant if we is working Russian side. 
No, I think we got a guy who is just wrung out and really tired of being tired, and scared all the time.  I mean from his viewpoint maybe it is all doom and gloom.  We do need to keep trying to use and source facts though.  This cannot simply become an opinion pulpit.  In fact if he has corroboration I would very much like to see it.  We do need to accept that if Russia has a breaking point then Ukraine has one too.  I am not seeing it but he definitely is - I am just not sure how he got there.  

Again about sanctions and bypassing...
 

Ease up there, bud. No need to slash and burn. I'm a liberal,  with conservative views on certain things.  I know a very liberal woman who is quite emotional and now apparently also very gullible (she's starting to spout that the Oct 7th attacks were fake). Full bore liberal going full bore tinfoil hat wearing. 
It's like that old chestnut by people who say they're relaxed,  don't get upset and are always rational.  Sure, until someone finds their button - that particular thing they truly care about - and mashes down hard.  Then Mr Cool Dude becomes Mr Raging A$$h*le real fast. 
Isn't everyone emotional,  across all spectrums? And everyone is gullible to what they want to hear that satisfies their psychological state, be they liberal conservative, fascist,  libertarian,  etc., no?

Before this nuke topic reheats for the gazillions time, it changes nothing about minefields, artillery and fpv drones. 
A tac nuke will kill a company or so of infantry and irradiate the sturmoviks riding into the minefield.. 
All the while crossing a red line that has promised NATO air strike retaliation written all over it. So please spare this pointless could russia win by nuking some atgm waste heap position discussion.
 
As for gas, both sides have used it in several instances, not systematic because even when dropped into a dugout, it still only works somewhat well at flushing it out, incendiary works better and has 0 international baggage.

Maybe these young people are climate change zealots because they have to live with the catastrophe that our generation chose to mock & ignore.  Did you see the temperature data from this summer?  This september?  -- Off the f--ing charts.  Things are getting bad much, much faster than projected a decade ago.  

This was in Amsterdam and referencing Israel and Gaza. What has it got to do with Ukraine? Given your wording, it sounds like you are just trying to shoehorn a personal bugbear.

2. Tokmаk direction...
Over the past few days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping operating in this direction has clearly, let’s say, “cast some doubt” on the thesis that is now quite widespread among experts that it has allegedly “run out of steam.”
And although the volume of this activity clearly does not entail any drastic changes and does not exceed the tactical level, the very fact of this already indicates that it is too early to put a “bold” end in this direction, at least formally. ..
In particular, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had limited success in the direction of the village of Novopokrovka, north-west of the village of Verbovoye, and also west of the village of Rabotino, in particular:
- The enemy’s 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade, obviously, was forced to leave its forward positions in at least two forest belts to the west of the village of Rabotino...
- North-west of the village of Verbovoye, Ukrainian units, apparently, finally managed to knock out the enemy from one important height from a tactical point of view (elevation - 140)
- Ukrainian units, also operating along the N-08 road, apparently came close to the western and southwestern outskirts of the village of Novopokrovka. In fact, the enemy on this side continues to hold only one forest belt south of the village.
Also, it is worth mentioning that in the most important area in the area of the village of Novoprokopovka and east of it, the enemy was also forced, after a series of counterattacks, to retreat to their fortified positions at the first position of their main line of defense, where the advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had not yet overcome it.. including in the area of two key heights for this direction with elevation. – 160 and 170.
As we see, the meaning of the extreme activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units in the Tokmak direction is 2 things.
- expanding its penetration on the flanks...
- and also, the solution to the “Novoprokopovka issue”
The Russians understand all this well, therefore... they are holding on with all their might to those sections of the first position of their main line of defense between Novoprokopovka and Verbove, which they still hold... forcedly concentrating their main forces and means here.
It is obvious that they clearly do not like the alternative, in the form of Ukrainian units bypassing the village of Novoprokopovka from the east...
Another feature of this direction that is worth mentioning... is the presence of a "real horde" of Russian formations of territorial troops, read - mainly "mobs"...
There are 6 such formations (meaning regiments of territorial troops) deployed here at once, + another 4 semi-combat-ready battalions of the BARS type, as well as a Rogozin unit together with the 249th motorized battalion "Akhmat-Yug" ... and some DPR police from the "Cascade" battalion...
As far as I understand, the enemy’s main “defensive” force here is the units and subunits of his 42nd Motorized Rifle Division from the 58th Army, as well as its headquarters controlling them. The rest are helping them... including a couple of regiments of the 7th, 76th Airborne Division and the 44th Airborne Division of the Mobilization Reserve...

Interesting (if long) video of a talk on nuclear escalation in Ukraine and deterrence stability. Some interesting stuff about nuclear threats in October 2022 too.
 
 

...

Of course it doesn't, and yes it will be painful for them. But not terminal and not in a way that precludes significant and destabilizing future Russian menacing of the west. There are plenty of painful economic changes we in the west endure yet somehow we often come out of it stronger. Let's not get sucked into "Russia sucks" beliefs about this. We hooted and scoffed about the ruble collapsing, crippling sanctions, unmaintained planes falling from the sky, freezing of finances and corporate pullouts. And here they are, adapting as hardy humans do.
Sure, but they will have the means--they will feel the brain drain and economic difficulties sure, but Russia is populous, resource-rich and has a heavier war industry than most other countries, and has a heavyweight financial sponsor to its east. Say what you will about demographic decline and economic projections; all I said is still true. We all know how anxious the current Ru military leadership is to squander opportunities, but for a country like this on paper, having been evacuated of their old tanks and legacy military equipment is practically an invitation to rebuild according to the new ways of war. The impact of losing 3000 tanks becomes almost a blessing than a curse. Very possible we see some shuffling of leadership to enable such rebuilding in the next 10 years, depending on how things go politically.
I don't think history will remember the catastrophic losses and the dead peasants so much as It will remember that Putin looked on a map and said, "That's mine now." And so it was. It's a symbolic victory and a (im)moral victory of strategic significance. Despite the answers to your questions about whatever practical advantages Russia has won and at which cost, I believe the optics of history will above all capture the image of Russia taking what it wants. A strategic corridor no less.
That would be a Total Victory, not just a strategic one. As when Hitler conquered France.
I do not have your experience, education or analytical skill. I love reading your posts and thank you for them. This post is a manifestation of my deep wariness of those that keep increasing the tint of their rosy glasses (not saying you are). Hubris comes before the fall and our societies have become fat with it. I can only trust that our institutions are still staffed by talented and committed individuals like yourself, and are refreshing themselves adequately as times change and entropy takes its toll.
I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic, I'd say I'm advocating for sober and serious preparation.

Dude, good lord.  As Steve has signalled we are getting way off track here but if you are going to take a position…how about some proof before we turn all the way into an INCEL echo chamber?
Here are counter points that took about 10 seconds to find:
https://www.cfr.org/womens-participation-in-global-economy/#
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/09/27/sp092722-ggopinath-kgef-gender-korea
https://eige.europa.eu/newsroom/economic-benefits-gender-equality?language_content_entity=en
As to demographic trend…yeesh been hearing this old song for forty years.  People don’t have fewer children because women get jobs.  They have fewer children because they can’t afford them.  So we are at distribution of wealth.  A living wage.  Social program and a bunch of issues that basically hold a society together.  Immigration (oh let’s light that fuse).  And a bunch of other stuff that really drags this thread sideways.
Move along now.  Nothing to see here.

 

It's modified from from "Life, the Universe and Everything" by Douglas Adams - third part of the Hitchikers Guide to the Galaxy (where a bunch of advertising executives are trying to invent fire in a suddenly stone-age society)

What's interesting is that those that are constantly harping about democracy and freedom being destroyed are the ones actually destroying democracy and freedom, at least in the US.  In 2020 (and coming in 2024) we faced the end of american democracy.  A giant mob of these brainless idiots even attacked and captured the US capital!  First time in over 200 years for that!  And what is said of this on the right?  "oh, was a little dustup!".  And these same people generally think religion should be more in charge in the US, while at the same time constantly harping about the constitution which very clearly says "hell no" to that.  
The enemy of democracy is ignorance and demogogery.  Fox news in the US being the primary source of this.  Fox news viewers have no idea what's actually happening.  It's news & infotainment for people that literally can't handle the truth.  They think the 2020 election was stolen, yet have no evidence other than "some black people were seen.."  (do they even know that Fox CHOSE to settle out of court and pay out ~$750M in a civil suit because of their election lies??)   They think climate change is a hoax despite their own thermometers.  They think Trump didn't didn't do anything wrong while the rest of us have actually seen the indictments and the mountains of damning evidence.  They think Jan 6 was everything except what it actually was -- a mob induced by Trump to try to overthrow the duly elected govt of the US -- it was an atttemped coup.
So western society is not being destroyed by gays or transgenders or atheists.  It's being destroyed by ignorant, nationalist, rage-filled fools who listen to rightwing propaganda to the point where they can't even stitch two thoughts together about reality yet think they are saving america while actively trying to destroy it, through their utter stupidity.

I was going for a more mocking angle to be honest.  Since the dawn of time people - usually old people - have somehow hooked whatever social ills they see onto a crisis.  “Moral decline”, “Hippies”, “Homosexuality”, “Women who can vote”!
Human social systems are naturally a mix of progressiveness and conservatism.  And rarely, if ever, does a war start based solely on whatever social issue means most to you.  We did not start wars because “the church” since the Crusades, possibly the Middle Ages - and even then there was a whole lotta money and power at play.  We sure as hell have never started a war over any of the rest of “damn kids these days” stuff.
The West is not going to fall over the obsolescence of religion or LGBTQ issues, or whatever you are worried about.  Why?  Because it didn’t last time with “women voting”, “civil rights” and “rock and/or roll”.  In fact since those End Times, the West has continued it rise in power and wealth.  
If anything does destroy the West it will be power hungry egomaniacs that leverage all that social angst into something really dangerous.  They aren’t doing it because they really care about our church/mosque/raccoon ratios - they are doing it to take more power.  The dismantling of democracy, social divisions that turn cancerous, deep corruption and greed- this is how empires die.  Not because we decide to stop going to freakin church and start this strange new thing called “meditation”.  

My uninformed speculation is to wonder if the recent spate of friendly fire incidents is due to some new cyber or electronic warfare capability becoming available that's enabling Ukraine to feed dodgy information to Russia AD to encouraging friendly targeting. But that's based on wishful thinking with no evidence to back it up (and if it was true, I[m pretty sure no-one would be talking about it in public anyway)

The fuss, bother and denial that is coming over capital fleets is going to make the tank and helicopter hand wringing look freakin quaint by comparison.
 “A 10 billion dollar ship can be taken out by drones?  Well so can infantry and you don’t see us getting rid of them!”

Same pattern on both sides.  Try big, get hammered…go small.  Have western commentators go “silly [insert side], why are you going small?  Be more manoeuvry!”

One minor bit of good news: a deal via intermediaries in Qatar to return four abducted children from Russia to Ukraine. It is apparently a trial deal in the hope of a much larger scale return of children.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67121574