TheVulture

"No, to try and force Russia and its population in his mindset. He is turning everyone into a hardcore nationalist. This is probably one of his main goals with this war, to forever drive a wedge between the west and Russia in the Russians minds. So that the only future left is one that aligns with his vision. So that everyone who disagrees with this vision is seen as a traitor. Propaganda and hate speech work miracles. Those that disagree either leave or are afraid to speak out"
I found the above quote on Reddit very accurate and I see Putin and his war in the same light. The most important reason why Putin attacked Ukraine is that he wanted a war to unite his people and burn their bridges, to get rid of the people who oppose him and to make sure there's no way back for Russia, much like Germany in ww2. In that sense Putin has already reached his main goal. The only thing Putin is afraid of is peace.
 

If it's spinning upwards, that's bad.

If it's spinning upwards, that's bad.

If it's spinning upwards, that's bad.

Would that be standing looking down drain or up?

Margaret MacMillan echos a lot of this in 1919.  The treaty was punitive but it is a bit of a myth that it somehow drove Germany into WW2.  It was a large part of Hitlers narrative - along with blaming the Jews for everything.  But in reality she notes that the real impact of the treaty was fairly limited in the grand scheme of things.
All war is certainty.  A collision of certainty.  So in this respect, sure Ukraine made this war happen.  They did so because their certainty- a free sovereign nation - was irreconcilable with the Russian position of Ukraine=client/vassal state.  The West did not somehow force Russia or Ukraine into all this.  In fact a major criticism (from the direction of the same crowd as whatever he is calling himself now) was how badly Obama botched the job by not showing Russia some teeth.  We really did not do much when Russia re-took Crimea or the Donbas regions.  We made quacking noises and slap a few sanctions on individuals but it was tepid as hell.  Now the same crowd are all “Elites pushed them into this”…the entire thing makes zero sense.
As to Russia itself.  We did a lot more than accept it back with open arms.  We bankrolled it coming out of the fall of the Soviet Union.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis
Hell at one point we were doing military cooperation and funding de-nuclear-ization.  Pretty odd behaviour for western compression.  Would it have been better to get Russia into the western sphere…definitely.  All that energy going east won’t do anyone any favours with respect to competition with China.
But our strategic options spaces collapsed as of this war.  Were we to say “hey no problem, go ahead and illegally invade another nation?”  Drop the Baltics out of NATO so Putin could take them too?  Sweet Jebus, since when did appeasement become a viable strategy with Russia?  Russia pushed everyone into this position.  And to this day no one has been able to point to the Russian crisis point in all this.  At best Ukraine would have had a decade to get into NATO or the EU.  We hadn’t even started the process.  Was Ukraine about to accept western troops en masse?  Western  nukes?  Was Ukraine massing military forces on the Russian border?
No bizarro logic to justify a contrary position is going to change what this whole war really was - a bafflingly poorly thought out land grab that turned into a nightmare quagmire by Russia.  There was no external forcing function.  Why go in freakin Feb? Worst time of year to do it?  It was likely the largest strategic blunder of the 21st century (so far).  If it was forced by the West it was a brilliant strategy but I do not give us that sort of credit.
What is breaking my soul is just how incredibly soft we have become.  Ukraine has one disappointing summer offensive - hell they did not even lose ground.  And now it is the end of days.  Pull the funding and run away!  How can we be the grandchildren of the generation that fought and won WW2?  Worse, there is a clown show of people trying to score points on all this.

I would not dispute that, but that is beside the original point. The original point was whether Ukraine deserves support solely because 1) the attack on it is a Russian land grab in Europe and that kind of political move should be resisted in principle; and 2) the attack on it is indirectly aimed at and would have the effect of undermining NATO, and NATO should indirectly defend against it; or , as a conditio sine qua non, in addition to the preceding points 3) Ukraine also has to display moral superiority over Russia in some ways (democracy, human rights, corruption, adherence to LOAC, whatever else).
In my view 1) and 2) are entirely sufficient reasons.

Well, no. Russia is expressly threatening NATO and trying to rebuild Soviet Union which threatened all non-communist countries with nuclear war. It is a self-declared enemy of all NATO countries - which probably includes yours (apologies if I assume incorrectly). Ukraine is a country fighting a defensive war against that enemy and Ukraine's win can undermine that enemy, allowing NATO years or decades of peace, without balooning defence budgets.
There are more than enough reasons to support Ukraine even if they go completely tit-for-tat with the russians and shoot a prisoner for every Russian attrocity. And use antipersonnel mines, cluster munitions and thermobarics which apparently are plenty effective. That moral high horse does not need to grow any higher.

Not that I would want to sit down and have a beer with this guy, but I kinda agree with what he is saying here. One of the goals of Russia's invasion from the very beginning was to attack not just Ukraine but also attack our rule-based world order.
I wish more people who support appeasement or don't think this war is worth spending money on, could hear this guy talk. As someone who follows this war on social media to get all those war clips that I post here, I still feel a lot of people just don't seem to get it. 

Does it protect from counter-battery fire if it slides far enough?
...
Anyway, any expectations of anything changing due to weather? How well do minefields work when frozen? Can vehicles cross rivers now? Do drones work worse in the cold? 
Of course the currently spicier part of Ukraine is in the south and that one isn't frozen because the temperatures are more stable near the sea.

It's one of the most common failure modes in foreign policy: we (for which ever country you are talking about as 'we') tend to anticipate other countries actions in terms of what we are most afraid of them doing, not in terms of what their interests are and what they are trying to achieve. (That, and viewing all unfriendly nations as being mutually co-operating rather than having their own tensions and conflicts with each other).
Hence all the silly talk last year about "is the Ukraine war going to prompt China to invade Taiwan?" No - China isn't remotely ready to do that (I'm of the view that China views invading Taiwan as very much a last resort option when all the better ideas have been exhausted), and nothing about Russia invading Ukraine makes China's chances any better. It's just that America's sense of crisis would be hit most acutely by a China-Taiwan conflict, so that's what they start to anticipate.

It's one of the most common failure modes in foreign policy: we (for which ever country you are talking about as 'we') tend to anticipate other countries actions in terms of what we are most afraid of them doing, not in terms of what their interests are and what they are trying to achieve. (That, and viewing all unfriendly nations as being mutually co-operating rather than having their own tensions and conflicts with each other).
Hence all the silly talk last year about "is the Ukraine war going to prompt China to invade Taiwan?" No - China isn't remotely ready to do that (I'm of the view that China views invading Taiwan as very much a last resort option when all the better ideas have been exhausted), and nothing about Russia invading Ukraine makes China's chances any better. It's just that America's sense of crisis would be hit most acutely by a China-Taiwan conflict, so that's what they start to anticipate.

Im conviced the only way to really win this is completely outproduce russia in the drone department. If the monthly fpv strikes happened per week/..day across the front, the war would quickly become unsustainable, even in the manpower department. 
If there is a drone or three for every little hideyhole, no trench can be held and reinforced and the mines dont matter all that much anymore.
Bonus point Id get to watch a lot more russians blow up instead of the occasional F16 flyby.
 

If you want to get a reaction just say “we will spend 2% on defence, as soon as you spend 2% on stopping climate change”

Pal, sometime when I read your last posts I recall Denetor, who looked at palantir during a siege of Minas-Tirith %) Of course, we had very hard year and broken hopes, but I not shure that all go to complete bad scenario. What I fully agree - when Russia asks "Iran, give me 1000 Shakeds!", Iran answers "here you are!", when Russian asks N.Korea "Kim, give me 10000000 shells", N.Korea (China) answers "Here you are". But when Ukraine asks "Allies! Give me... Patriots, Leos, Abrams, shells" aliies answer "well, we will support you till the end! But... we need to gather Ramstein through two months, conduct discussions, discuss all pro- and contra... And memento escalation of course" 
And only small Denmark silently says "Psss... I heard you need arty? We have some cool stuff. Take all wahat we have. We anyway will not make war with Norway or Germany"

Ya, I gotta agree.  His track record would make him one helluva deep plant if we is working Russian side. 
No, I think we got a guy who is just wrung out and really tired of being tired, and scared all the time.  I mean from his viewpoint maybe it is all doom and gloom.  We do need to keep trying to use and source facts though.  This cannot simply become an opinion pulpit.  In fact if he has corroboration I would very much like to see it.  We do need to accept that if Russia has a breaking point then Ukraine has one too.  I am not seeing it but he definitely is - I am just not sure how he got there.  

Again about sanctions and bypassing...
 

Ease up there, bud. No need to slash and burn. I'm a liberal,  with conservative views on certain things.  I know a very liberal woman who is quite emotional and now apparently also very gullible (she's starting to spout that the Oct 7th attacks were fake). Full bore liberal going full bore tinfoil hat wearing. 
It's like that old chestnut by people who say they're relaxed,  don't get upset and are always rational.  Sure, until someone finds their button - that particular thing they truly care about - and mashes down hard.  Then Mr Cool Dude becomes Mr Raging A$$h*le real fast. 
Isn't everyone emotional,  across all spectrums? And everyone is gullible to what they want to hear that satisfies their psychological state, be they liberal conservative, fascist,  libertarian,  etc., no?

Before this nuke topic reheats for the gazillions time, it changes nothing about minefields, artillery and fpv drones. 
A tac nuke will kill a company or so of infantry and irradiate the sturmoviks riding into the minefield.. 
All the while crossing a red line that has promised NATO air strike retaliation written all over it. So please spare this pointless could russia win by nuking some atgm waste heap position discussion.
 
As for gas, both sides have used it in several instances, not systematic because even when dropped into a dugout, it still only works somewhat well at flushing it out, incendiary works better and has 0 international baggage.

Maybe these young people are climate change zealots because they have to live with the catastrophe that our generation chose to mock & ignore.  Did you see the temperature data from this summer?  This september?  -- Off the f--ing charts.  Things are getting bad much, much faster than projected a decade ago.  

This was in Amsterdam and referencing Israel and Gaza. What has it got to do with Ukraine? Given your wording, it sounds like you are just trying to shoehorn a personal bugbear.

2. Tokmаk direction...
Over the past few days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping operating in this direction has clearly, let’s say, “cast some doubt” on the thesis that is now quite widespread among experts that it has allegedly “run out of steam.”
And although the volume of this activity clearly does not entail any drastic changes and does not exceed the tactical level, the very fact of this already indicates that it is too early to put a “bold” end in this direction, at least formally. ..
In particular, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had limited success in the direction of the village of Novopokrovka, north-west of the village of Verbovoye, and also west of the village of Rabotino, in particular:
- The enemy’s 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade, obviously, was forced to leave its forward positions in at least two forest belts to the west of the village of Rabotino...
- North-west of the village of Verbovoye, Ukrainian units, apparently, finally managed to knock out the enemy from one important height from a tactical point of view (elevation - 140)
- Ukrainian units, also operating along the N-08 road, apparently came close to the western and southwestern outskirts of the village of Novopokrovka. In fact, the enemy on this side continues to hold only one forest belt south of the village.
Also, it is worth mentioning that in the most important area in the area of the village of Novoprokopovka and east of it, the enemy was also forced, after a series of counterattacks, to retreat to their fortified positions at the first position of their main line of defense, where the advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had not yet overcome it.. including in the area of two key heights for this direction with elevation. – 160 and 170.
As we see, the meaning of the extreme activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units in the Tokmak direction is 2 things.
- expanding its penetration on the flanks...
- and also, the solution to the “Novoprokopovka issue”
The Russians understand all this well, therefore... they are holding on with all their might to those sections of the first position of their main line of defense between Novoprokopovka and Verbove, which they still hold... forcedly concentrating their main forces and means here.
It is obvious that they clearly do not like the alternative, in the form of Ukrainian units bypassing the village of Novoprokopovka from the east...
Another feature of this direction that is worth mentioning... is the presence of a "real horde" of Russian formations of territorial troops, read - mainly "mobs"...
There are 6 such formations (meaning regiments of territorial troops) deployed here at once, + another 4 semi-combat-ready battalions of the BARS type, as well as a Rogozin unit together with the 249th motorized battalion "Akhmat-Yug" ... and some DPR police from the "Cascade" battalion...
As far as I understand, the enemy’s main “defensive” force here is the units and subunits of his 42nd Motorized Rifle Division from the 58th Army, as well as its headquarters controlling them. The rest are helping them... including a couple of regiments of the 7th, 76th Airborne Division and the 44th Airborne Division of the Mobilization Reserve...

Interesting (if long) video of a talk on nuclear escalation in Ukraine and deterrence stability. Some interesting stuff about nuclear threats in October 2022 too.
 
 

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Of course it doesn't, and yes it will be painful for them. But not terminal and not in a way that precludes significant and destabilizing future Russian menacing of the west. There are plenty of painful economic changes we in the west endure yet somehow we often come out of it stronger. Let's not get sucked into "Russia sucks" beliefs about this. We hooted and scoffed about the ruble collapsing, crippling sanctions, unmaintained planes falling from the sky, freezing of finances and corporate pullouts. And here they are, adapting as hardy humans do.
Sure, but they will have the means--they will feel the brain drain and economic difficulties sure, but Russia is populous, resource-rich and has a heavier war industry than most other countries, and has a heavyweight financial sponsor to its east. Say what you will about demographic decline and economic projections; all I said is still true. We all know how anxious the current Ru military leadership is to squander opportunities, but for a country like this on paper, having been evacuated of their old tanks and legacy military equipment is practically an invitation to rebuild according to the new ways of war. The impact of losing 3000 tanks becomes almost a blessing than a curse. Very possible we see some shuffling of leadership to enable such rebuilding in the next 10 years, depending on how things go politically.
I don't think history will remember the catastrophic losses and the dead peasants so much as It will remember that Putin looked on a map and said, "That's mine now." And so it was. It's a symbolic victory and a (im)moral victory of strategic significance. Despite the answers to your questions about whatever practical advantages Russia has won and at which cost, I believe the optics of history will above all capture the image of Russia taking what it wants. A strategic corridor no less.
That would be a Total Victory, not just a strategic one. As when Hitler conquered France.
I do not have your experience, education or analytical skill. I love reading your posts and thank you for them. This post is a manifestation of my deep wariness of those that keep increasing the tint of their rosy glasses (not saying you are). Hubris comes before the fall and our societies have become fat with it. I can only trust that our institutions are still staffed by talented and committed individuals like yourself, and are refreshing themselves adequately as times change and entropy takes its toll.
I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic, I'd say I'm advocating for sober and serious preparation.