Vanir Ausf B

New podcast with Kofman:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/08/zooming-out-on-ukraines-offensive/
ZOOMING OUT ON UKRAINE’S OFFENSIVE
MICHAEL KOFMAN AND RYAN EVANS
AUGUST 3, 2023
PODCASTS - WAR ON THE ROCKS
 

Global economy. While you do have good points regarding these chips falling into Russia, it's important to note the nature, these parts are flowing via 3rd party countries largely. Not only that, many of these parts are not considered sensitive, or consumer grade, they are in many cases produced in 3rd party countries like China, so transfer is even easier.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/russia-ukraine-war-exports-sanctions-western-technology-5a3eff69
 

Ukraine continues to cement their reputation as the Noah's Ark of military hardware.
__________
Ruslan, a Ukrainian artillery commander, said the North Korean munitions were not favoured by his troops because of their relatively high dud rate, with many known to misfire or fail to explode. Most were manufactured in the 1980s and 1990s, according to their markings.
One Ukrainian Grad unit member warned the FT not to get too close to the rocket launcher when the crew fired the North Korean munitions because “they are very unreliable and do crazy things sometimes”.
https://www.ft.com/content/96e1f526-ae3d-4cff-bc37-8f9dd7d5975f
 

Ukraine continues to cement their reputation as the Noah's Ark of military hardware.
__________
Ruslan, a Ukrainian artillery commander, said the North Korean munitions were not favoured by his troops because of their relatively high dud rate, with many known to misfire or fail to explode. Most were manufactured in the 1980s and 1990s, according to their markings.
One Ukrainian Grad unit member warned the FT not to get too close to the rocket launcher when the crew fired the North Korean munitions because “they are very unreliable and do crazy things sometimes”.
https://www.ft.com/content/96e1f526-ae3d-4cff-bc37-8f9dd7d5975f
 

https://time.com/6294670/us-strategy-ukraine-prioritizing-asia/
Caption reads "A M142 HIMARS launches a rocket on the Bakhmut direction on May 18, 2023 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine."

UKR troops after conducting stabilizing actions on Borova direction could more push back Russians to the east. Villages Nadiya and Novoyehorivka came to grey zone (other info says UKR controlled these villages again). Indeed all three captured villages are very small per 50-100 inhabitants (pre-war info). Red dotted lines mark maximal Russian incursion on 24th of July (DeepState depeicted even worse situation, but it was recognized wrong and unconfirmed)
Here is a story from Russian side, from participant of 15th motor-rifle brigade, how developed their offensive from 20 to 24th of July, when Russians achieved most success on this direction.
In Russian news recent tactical success of Russian army is known as "Karmazinovka offensive", though main strike was conducted from Kovaliovka village, which almost merge with Karmazinovka, but situates some to north on the bank the same Zherebets river.  Units of 2nd CAA of Central military district since October 2022 settled defense positions along Zerebets river. The river itself lіes in lowland on 100 m above sea level. Estern bank, which we seized has heights 150-160 m above sea level, the western bank, where the enemy has 160-170 m. All terrain is represented with fields of winter crops and sunfloweres with rare tree-lines on our side and the same fields with small forests from the enemy side. Zherebets river is several meters in wide only and in many places you can ford it. But banks of the river are soft and muddy on dozen meters in both directions and impassable for vehicles without engineer preparations.
Defense line from Raihorodka to Karmazinovka seized 15th motor-riflre brigade of 2nd CAA, Central military district [this is so-called "peacemaking brigade", which in 2014-2015 fought on Donbas with blue UN colors. Brigade has BTR-82A, some BTR-80 and MTLB and unclear T-72 modification]. Our troops expecting enemy attack dug in up to eyes, except dragon teeth and usual mines, we deployed chech hedgegogs and radio-controlled IEDs. 
At the beginning of July the "Storm" unit of our brigade conducted reconnaissance in force with support of our recons. As a result of several days fighting we could capture small forest west from Karmazinovka, where except our "Srorm" operated "Storm" unit of 21st motor-rifle brigade [I supopse, author is wrong, because 21st brigade fought further to the south in Ploshchanka village area]. Losses of our stormers were serious, especially "Shtorm-Z" [convicts] company of "Storm" unit is suffered. This company was almost totaly wiped out with mortar fire. Most of victims were wounded, bud it had also many dead enough. After this the enemy tried to counter attack twice to recapture the lost ground, but they failed. Both times they attacked during the rain. 
At last on 20th of July general assault began by forces of motor-rifle battalions of our brigade. Artilley barrages began at 3:00 of night. Grads, barrels 152 mm, tanks with semi-direct fire, mortars, but most importanty - TOS-1! All artillery had been working up to mid of the day. On next day dawn assault groups of our infantry had beenn moving forward, they crossed the river with it swampy banks on foot, carring the weapon over the head. Assault was pure infantry, because all bridges were destroyed and all fords, suitable for vehicles were mined as far as in past autumn. 
For first day we have advanced on 2,5-3 km from our positions. Two enemy mortars, which stand in front of our way were supressed as far as at the morning. Resty of enemy artillery by unknown reason kept silence. Beacause of this we had small losses, mosly by booby-traps and machine-gun fire. In the places, where the enemy snapped, we were withdrawing and their position were shelling with tanks and mortars. The fire ajusted with quadcopters. This was continuing continuing endless. One enemy unit still resists fiercely despite our shellings, so we decided to bypass it, lefting this problem for later.
Enemy, of course, tried to pull reserves, but first group on pick-ups was disassembled by our tank. The second group we already expected - as their infantry dismounted from BMP, they got mortar fire and were eliminated, alas BMPs had time to flee.
Next day intanse shower began. This caused problems to our infantry, who was under open sky and for our drone teams, which can'r fly to adjust fire. First day brough us dozens of captured. Ememy also lost many killed. Several his grops were spotted fleeng to west. One time we spotted even whole platoon in 18 men, but couldn't reach them. 
Next day we continued our advance, though several men couldn't stand the stress and "enlisted to 500th" [unauthorized abandoning the unit] - they returned back to our start positions. One our wounded squd leader lost own radio, but this didn't have any consequences, because it has only one frequency of his company. We again, using the quadcopters cought enemy reserve and destroyed it with tank fire. To the mid of day we overcame 4 km. Company commanders reported about reached lines. 
The same enemy group, which turned out in our rear,  we offered to surrender, but they rejected, so we drop on them dozen 120 mm mortar shells, them came on their position and shot out remained wounded in order they not to suffer.
Bridgehead was seized. The work of moles [sappers] has started of mineclearing and setting the crosses through the river. To forward lined moved ammo and food, to the rear - POWs, tophies and wounded. In companies of our battalion were about dozed wounded in each. Killed either weren't at once, or just several men. Among trophies were pick-ups, several AGS, equipment, ammo, radios etc. Artillery of the enemy started to work only in the mid of the day. It worked mostly on roads and crossings. This was unpleasnantly, but didn't play any significant role. 
On next day throug the new crossings new fresg battalion of our brigade came - they already had armor, including tanks. Infantry of the second battalion came to reinforce the first battalions, which advance some stalled near Raihorodka. We continues to move forward, relying on tank and artilelry support under eyes of our quadcopters. 
On this moment we enetered to Novoyegorovka, strange village - it present on maps, but there no houses here. Interaction between two our batatlions allowed us to breach enemy strongpoint near Raihorodka and approach to Nadiya village. So in this time [24-25th of July] we control three villages - Nadiya, Novoyegorovka and Sergeevka in the middle. 
The cause of our success became surprise factor. The eneny knew about assault, but though only "Storm" units would be participate as usual. But we launched attack on wide front and they couldn't maintain support by reserves - it's turned out they just didn't have it. All other likely went to Bakhmut and to Zaporozhye. I told my opinion that "Shtorm" units are only for harassing actions and alignment of frontline, but when it will be need all infantry will go forward simultainously.  And yes, mobilized soldiers also went to the battle and fought not worse than contractors and voluntreers. 
Exellent showed themselves the chain quadcopters - mortars - tanks. Drone operators were experienced, crews of tanks and mortars too. Infantry got some experience as far as in autumn clashes. The radio communication, built on "Combats" and "Motorolas" didn't fail, as well as commanders and HQs. We did all as in field manual - came, kill them all and took bridgehead. Many soldiers didn't believe in such success, taking into account negative experience of past. 
Konstantin Mashovets, commenting developments of this axis told next things:
- significant enemy advantage in artillery and amount of ammunition, collected here for long time
- Russians have enough reserves here to reionforce own efforts
- Russians had better level of combat control over own units, than UKR side, represented mostly with units of 66th mech.brigade. According to words of our soldiers from there, our defense system was saved by the miracle and timely samrt decisions of battalion-company level commanders.
- very weak battlefield AD of brigade. Not only Russian fixed-wing drones, but usual copters felt free in the air and allowed the enemy to adjust fire without problems.
 
   

Ukraine continues to cement their reputation as the Noah's Ark of military hardware.
__________
Ruslan, a Ukrainian artillery commander, said the North Korean munitions were not favoured by his troops because of their relatively high dud rate, with many known to misfire or fail to explode. Most were manufactured in the 1980s and 1990s, according to their markings.
One Ukrainian Grad unit member warned the FT not to get too close to the rocket launcher when the crew fired the North Korean munitions because “they are very unreliable and do crazy things sometimes”.
https://www.ft.com/content/96e1f526-ae3d-4cff-bc37-8f9dd7d5975f
 

Not necessarily true. I don’t know how the Russian Aviation operations are set up, but the U.S. Military’s aviation mission rotation includes ALL Flight Officers. Unlike in ground units where the Battalion Comanders tend to not be on the “front lines,” Aviation Officers are expected, in fact are required, to be part of the combat mission rotation. I suspect the combat rotation of aircrews in Russian Aviation are the same.

Russians captured damaged by RPG shot CV90 from the video, posted here in recent days. It's unknowm could Russians evacuate it or it's just a photo near abandoned vehicle
 

Significant lose for the enemy, according their reports. Commander of 123rd motor-rifle brigade of 2nd Army Corps (former 2nd motor-rifle brigade of LNR) colonel Denis Ivanov was killed on 17th of July in own car by UKR FPV drone of 10th mountain-assault brigade. It's unclear when it became LNR brigade comamnder, to this time his name wasn't knoewn,even in Russian news and on Skabeeva TV-show he appeared only under own callsign "Tashkent". He had a reputation of "legendary commander", which could acomplish any task with minimal losses. Became knowingly, recently Ivanov was a commander of 138th motor-rifle brigade
 

Hm... I never heard about these units. I'm no clue what is MTR "Yug" and 38th detachment. Maybe they meant ELINT center "Pivden' " (rus. Yug, eng. South). 
600th use only by SOF, as I know and they not often issue own work. By feedback 600th are exellent weapon, unlike 300th, which by words of operators had very poor TV picture quality, unstable control and weak explosion effect, because of "antiterror" feature of warhead, which created directed explosion to eliminate the target, reducing of collateral damage around. But terms of conventional warfare demanded exactly "collateral damage around". Alas, we had few 600th to make the same mass effect like Lancets.
Though, even Russians say, depending on frontline conditions only about 30 % of Lancet launches finish themselves with attack at the target. All other launches  are unsuccessful due to operator can't find a target and drone crashes after out of fuel or Ukrianians shot down it (more rarely, but it happens). Mashovets in own last post wrote Russian Lancet units (also from composition of Spetsnaz) try to support own Lancet stockpile in 20-25 drones, using 5-7 for a day (during intetse fighting this number can rise up to 15)

This guy has confused National Guard and Territorial Defense. If he meant 7th battalion "Arey" as "national guard/TD", which raised only in Feb 2022, then he is wrong. "Arey" exists since 2015 and had enough combat experience and motivation. This battalion of Ukrainian Volunteer Army just was included to 129th Territorial Defense brigade, but by quality it was on a level better. And probably even equal to forces of 35th marines brigade. 
BTW term "elite" in current terms is conditional, except SOF troops. Yes, marines and air-assuult units have more strict selection of conscripts (but not always and you can meet 45+ man with health problems as air-assault rifleman), they have more better weapon (but also not always) and better training. But in average they often just slightly better than usual mech.unit. Under artillery fire all are equal.  

That dovetails with what "the academics" (well, some of them at least) have been saying:
This war also reinforces the importance of experience. Ukraine’s army is now one of the most experienced in the world, but it still lacks experience co-ordinating offensive action on a large scale. What on paper is an attacking brigade of several thousand men is, in practice, a couple of reinforced companies of no more than a few hundred men each—a smaller force that struggles to establish superiority over entrenched defenders. Although Ukraine can conduct combined-arms assaults at the level of a platoon, this begins to come apart when attempting to scale up to the level of a company or battalion.
Ukraine’s armed forces remain uneven because of losses and several waves of mobilisation. Experienced brigades can correct artillery fire and conduct reconnaissance and suppress enemy positions in advance of an attack. Newer units are unable to put those pieces together even when provided with the best Western equipment.
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/07/28/franz-stefan-gady-and-michael-kofman-on-what-ukraine-must-do-to-break-through-russian-defences

I don't think that what the Russians want is a discussion. They want to manipulate and brainwash. They actually want what you propose: us censoring ourselves for fear that we might do their work by having the wrong thoughts.
A (meaningful) discussion? Nah, I actually think that's the very last thing they want. Yes, we might come to the conclusion that the Ukrainian offensive isn't going so well, doubt the Ukrainian ability to advance or whatever. If that would reflect reality then what do we gain by putting on our rose tinted glasses? What does Ukraine gain?
Sure, there is the very real risk that at some point the West will pull the plug. I don't think we are there, yet. On the other hand too much (unwarranted) optimism may make us blind for what kind of stuff would really help Ukraine.
Sure, what we discuss here has only a small impact on what is happening "on the ground". But not none! In a democracy public opinion is important and each little discussion contributes in shaping that opinion. Our politicians rarely say: "Oh, screw public opinion I'm just going to do whatever I please."

I was reading not one time from soldiers, that Western training good in basic, but completely doesn't reflect reality of our war. Western armies didn't fight in such type convential war since Korea. Current western doctrine is "Jets&Tomahawks". Many Western experts now say "NATO would never make offensive like Ukrainain army". Germans say (it's Bild article, but...) UKR offensive if bogging, because Ukrianian army doesn't stick to their training and instead to attack with whole battalion, they divide own atatcks on atatcks of small assault groups (well, everydody could see, how finished "battalion column attack" of 47th brigade in June). You can remember interview of UKR tanker, when they asked German instructor what he have to do if a minefield in front of attack and instructor answered "You should bypass minefield" (the man just can't imagine, that minefield can be kilimeters in lenght and hunderd meters in depth) 
Western 5-weeks training also can't bring up good officer "from zero". So, western tarining for civilian conscripts is good "young soldier school", more effective, than most of our training centers, but you sholdn't exaggregate it capabilities. 

Tbf to Russia....does anyone like being surrounded?

Russian Mi-26 heavy helicopter is out of service likely for long time. Yakutia Repuplic.
 

Estimated UKR progress for yesterday

But price is high. It's example why idea of initial involvemnt of tough Bradleys was right. New brigade, which should develop success lost seven vehicles on battlefield abandoned and destroyed close to main enemy trenches. This is 2,6 km from eastern outskirt of Robotyne. BMP-1 detanated after ATGM or RPG hit in side hull
 

One of forts times in this war when we can observe situation vehicles vs. antitank ditches/"dragon's teeth". It is not the first line, though according to maps.
 

An interesting and in-depth interview with a Ukrainian sniper on the equipment, roles and tactics of snipers in the war - https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/25/stopping-the-modern-hitler-snipers-hold-the-line-in-ukraines-battle-for-survival/
 
 

The map of visually geolocated destroyed artillery/MLRS/air defense assets since starting of UKR offensive from 9th of May. Russians, commenting this, complain that Russian industry is unable to replenish quickly such losses in artillery, when UKR will give replenishments for destroyed armor and soon can achieve 1:10 rate of losses in artillery and this threaten to catastrofical consequences for motorized troops

I just put most of Mashovets writings on this map.
According to him Russian group on Kupiansk direction divided on two groupments - northern, which will advance on Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi and southern, which already started own offensive to Borova town. Each groupment in own turn has per two subgroups. The border of responsibility of both groups is probably along the road Svatove - Borova
Main goal of southern group - to reach Borova and in this way to cutt off northern group of UKR forces and then to smash them with nortehrn group attack from east and southern group attack from south to north along Oskil river. Their objectives - not only capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi (and maybe Kupiansk on right bank of Oskil), but completely eliminate UKR troops on left bank of Oskil. Now southern group is trying to acomplish nearest task - to come on the line Pershotravneve - Iziumske (vertical red dotted line)
Southern group approx since 17th of July could push off UKR forces of 66th mech.brigade from Zherebets river oppose to Kovalivka - Karmazynivka villages line and established there bridgehead. Using huge advantage in artillery and especially in MLRS, they for three last days significantly expanded this bridgehead up to 5 x 4 km area. Soldiers say, Russian MLRS fire even at small size units like half-squad. To stop this breakthrough, UKR command was forced to send rerverves. Now situation there is unknown. Against us here are 423rd MRR of 4th GTD and elements of 15th MRBr and 30th MRBr 
Also in interests of southern group two battalions of 21st motor-rifle brigade of Lyman groupment are operating. They try to attack on Makiivka, but without success. 
Between groups "borderline" Russians threw into the battle two units of reserves, keeping near Miluvatka (my bug on map) - 12th and 13th tank regiments of 4th GTD are in the battle on Dzherelne - Raihorodka line, but without significant gains.
Norhern groupment makes probe actions in Novoselivske area. All their success for now - they pushed off UKR troops about on 1 km and again captured railway stattion between Novoselivske and Kuzemivka. 
Mashovets also put intersting question - why Russians HQ have started this offensive now? Either they are trying to force UKR command move reserves from south here or they are already confident that UKR offensive on the south ALREADY failed. And from answer will be depend many things.
 

Leopard 2A6 being hit by Lancet- according to Wolski, white cloud means fire suppression systems started working, which means that explosion reached crew commpartment, later corroborated by black smoke.
Generally in last month Russians ramped up their drone warfare very visibly, both in quality and quantity. Lancet attacks are conducted deeper within UA-controlled territory and are more precise. Muscovite superiority in EW warfare also started to kick in, according to several military observers here- Ukrainians lack modern jamming systems and AA sets in numbers necessary to counter it. Yesterday new videos of UA SP artillery being destroyed during ammo loading and additional tanks also surfaced.
 

The Wall Street Journal, and the NYT have declared the Ukrainian counter offensive to be more or less hopeless. I am all but certain this means Ukraine will achieve a massive breakthrough very soon. Whatever bit of the "Foreign Policy Blob" that is briefing them has been wrong about every other stage of the war, hard to believe they will start being right all of a sudden.

ATACMs are off the table again. Or maybe they were never on it.
_________
But U.S. defense and administration officials familiar with the issue said that despite what one called a growing public perception of “some sort of slow, gravitational pull” toward approval, there has been no change in U.S. policy and no substantive discussion about the issue for months.
The Pentagon believes that Kyiv has other, more urgent needs than ATACMS, and worries that sending enough to Ukraine to make a difference on the battlefield would severely undercut U.S. readiness for other possible conflicts.
The number of ATACMS in American stockpiles is fixed, awaiting replacement with the next generation, longer-range Precision Strike Missile, called the Prism, for PrSM, which is expected to enter service by the end of this year, officials said. Lockheed Martin still manufactures 500 ATACMS each year, but all of that production is destined for sale to other countries.
“The problem now is not their ability to strike deep” into Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, Kahl said. “They have that ability. They are doing it now. The Russian command and control, their logistics, have been disrupted in the deep.”
“The problem is not a hundred kilometers away, it’s one kilometer in front of them with the minefields”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/22/ukraine-us-long-range-missiles/