LongLeftFlank

I keep coming back to the laconic Dowding (Olivier) quote from late in the film 'Battle of Britain': I'm not very interested in propaganda, Minister.... If we're right, they'll give up. If we're wrong, they'll be in London in a week. [Click]

My best guess is that the Kilburn spit raid is a lure to draw out the Russian fleet again. Also forces them to garrison and fortify the coast down at least as far as Perekop. Keep them stretched thin.

Note!

Agreed. But I think they've been doing the regrouping for at least a month now, while continuing to train up on new equipment and kit out for winter. So by the first hard freeze in the south, it could well be the UA that throws the first new punch. ....Not to underestimate the costs of the war over the past 30 days, but it seems to me the pushes on Kherson, Svatove and the high intensity defence against Wagner in the Donbass zone has been conducted by rotating UA forces in place, not committing reserves. But most of what I 'know' has been from passively reading here (cuz work). Last comment, recovering the 2nd largest city after Mariupol (?) to fall under the Russians in a fairly undamaged state is a big nonmilitary win; it seems to be the key civil hub for that entire area. Of course, it still lies on the front lines so its suffering isn't over yet. P.S. I love Armenian and Georgian wine, and also dessert wines, so I am going to make a point of putting some of my wine money into Ukraine's wine industry as soon as I can get it here in Asia.

Isn't it supposed to be yaks? No, I'm far past being surprised by this kind of mythomania. In any case, I have far better things to do with my San Mig Lights. What hasn't already been said? ... you'd think the Old Left might have learned from the horrid example of all-time Useful Idiot, George Bernard Shaw, who visited Moscow in 1931 and following a fine banquet smugly pronounced the Russians to be 'uncommonly well fed'. But no, pace Talleyrand, they have "forgotten nothing and learned nothing." Tankies have joined the paleos in the ancien regime they spent their lives despising.

General Winter will destroy our enemies! So with the 'November surprise' (elections) gone, Russia apologists (and their source material is basically RT) have piled on to their newest copium theory. It seems winter in Ukraine is going to utterly confound and defeat an army made up of people who freeking *live there.* Although it looks like the Third Romer -tankies are crawling up their own nether regions even further and have convinced themselves that it's not really Ukrainians (and their cokehead president) fighting now, but nefarious Polish and British mercs. Who will perforce crawl into a hole and die the moment it snows. Plus, Ukraine's freight rail and overland transportation are mainly electric, ergo all offline now, or sumfink. Bummer. https://strategic-culture.org/news/2022/11/10/sun-tzu-walks-into-a-kherson-bar/ So why are the Americans desperate to offer a deal? Because they may be sensing the next Russian move with the arrival of General Winter should be capable of conclusively winning the war on Moscow’s terms. That would include slamming the Polish border shut via a long arrow move from Belarus downwards. With weaponizing supply lines cut, Kiev’s fate is sealed.

1. For those keeping score at home, the Winnah! Our Holy Thread, page 10. Day One. 2. Honourable mention to @CHEqTRO though, who was skeptical and posting tweets of RU bungling from very early on. And @The_Capt was like, 'wtf is Putin thinking of here, if he doesn't pull out some insider KGB coup angle, he's actually quite hosed', starting Day 2. Our host didn't participate, at least not on this thread, until page 29 (Day 3). But his second post (page 30) did not mince words. Ukraine doesn't have to defeat 190,000 Russians, it only has to significant degrade the first line forces in the initial attack. If it can do that, the Russian attack will ultimately fail.... I expect this war will be decided by tomorrow at the latest. The war, however, will last only so long as Putin keeps it going or he is deposed by someone who will end it. Steve ... and outright called it on page 32 (same day). Especially if Russia starts turning Kiev into Grozny. Which, I'm afraid, is what is planned now that the ground war has pretty much failed. For the record!

So in other words, hiding in the bushes, or in imperfectly covered holes, is becoming disintermediated? The tactical rock-paper-scissors game continues to evolve. ....I'm starting to think there's actually some sense in my crackpot idea of replacing or augmenting (anti-bullet) infantry body armour with some kind of heavy man-covering/knee-length multilayer kevlar cloak sufficient to repel grenade fragments from most directions. Ideally, also combines anti-IR and ghillie suit camou features, as well as providing shelter from the elements. Back to the Viking days, Ukraine! ...It would reduce the lethal range of the frags, force the drone bombers to use heavier charges and also help defenders fully 'roof' their foxholes against small charges dropping in. Or maybe that's still crackpot for reasons I haven't thought of. I have spent enough time in deer blinds though to appreciate the value of a good windbreak and groundcloth, in spite of the extra weight.

Z beatings will continue until.... Catch-ZZ?

https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/sayonara-okinawa-us-is-sending-its-f-15s-home/ Meanwhile, the US Air Force has announced it will support Kadena with rotational squadrons of fighter aircraft. The first will be F-22s coming to Kadena from Alaska; they will stay at Kadena for six months. https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-taiwan-arms-production-plan-seeks-to-deter-china/ This May, Taiwan announced a years-long delay for the delivery of 40 US M109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers, pushing back the delivery date from 2023 to 2026. Apart from those big guns, in the same month, the Taiwan Defense Ministry also announced that the US may delay a shipment of Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft missiles until 2026. ...the price for Taiwan’s first batch of 11 HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS), which have been used with devastating effect in Ukraine, has increased by US$12.5 million, with delivery starting in 2024. The first batch of 11 HIMARS launchers was initially priced at $300.9 million but the price tag has since bulged to $313.3 million

Please use the Editor to set Ground conditions to WET before playing Makin. That should suitably nobble the tanks. Aquila just cut them loose and let them run riot. That is nothing like what happened, although historically one of the (halftracks modded as) LVTs lost its brakes and careened through the coconut groves to end up stranded on the opposite beach.

Wait, wut??!!!! Pskov is up north next to Estonia, and IMHO a prime candidate to break away from Russia as its own free republic postwar (land border with Baltics + dense taiga/lakes + huge population of disgusted ex-paratroopers => a local militia that would quickly chew and spit out any intruders from Moscow) Did I miss something big while I was away (work travel)?

@danfrodo in action!

1. From some simple messing around, back when I had time for such things.... 2. Came an entire mod set, mainly done by others than myself, which I based on CMBN Polish forces, together with some other speciality mods. This was all well before the current texture swapping and the uniforms don't work with the current wireframes. 3. And finally a scenario (I chose Makin because it was US Army, super well documented, included tanks -- I used Shermans for Lees -- and flamethrowers were not used in the historical action owing to a logistical snafu, which was ok by me because CMBN didn't yet offer them in 2012) And before you ask, why not CMFI? answer is the giant unsplittable Italian squads are unsuitable for IJA/rikusentai defenders which are 3-4 well camouflaged guys with Nambus (Brens) and grenades. But hey, knock yerself out. And no, I am not available for any contributions, sorry. That was another rabbit, long ago. Good luck!

LOL, 101st Airborne sitting directly opposite Crimea is an even more direct FA->FO signal. Notice Uncle Sam doesn't even *bother* putting naval assets into the Black Sea (are you taking notes here, China?) ***** Winter is, umm, Here.... https://turcopolier.com/allies-dig-in-to-give-ukraine-winter-edge-over-ill-equipped-russians/ Also read the comments by the bloggers (Pat Lang and TTG).

When something mysteriously shows up in the Caspian and shoots down a bunch of TU95s as they lazily maneuver to release their ALCMs at Ukrainian cities.... then vanishes just as mysteriously, without trace.... THAT will be one for the record books! Philadelpia Experiment, anyone?

yeah, Kilcullen has had a few holes shot in his various boats on the CMSF boards over the years. He's a super smart guy, spent enough time getting shot at to have cred, and also a good writer. But his papers also tend toward that 'just so' Journal Article Unifying Theory, which I guess ensures a lucrative career for him. Not a condition unique to the MIC by any means.

Places to store pickled herring are very important!

Good info, thanks, and there are similar reports from as far away as Portugal (Croatia just declined to participate, while stating support). Probably sums to well over 25,000 all-in although don't hold me to that. ... But it seems like the overseas programmes are more for 'upskilling' the existing 1 million force (those who aren't at the front now). That would seem to make more sense in terms of impact and force integrity. I'd think they'd have the new recruits do their basic in Ukraine; giving newbs the advanced training they'd get in the West seems suboptimal. Otherwise, integrating a cadre with state of the art Western training but NO combat experience with seasoned combat veterans who know only the old system seems... problematic. But I have no personal experience with any of this. Just seems like Ukraine would want to have another 250 - 500k guys (and gals) who at least know how to handle a rifle on tap in the event they might be needed (and I don't mean poor old guys like the Russians are pulling in -- that's a desperation move).

Many thanks. OPSEC is all very well and good, but you'd think they would make SOME kind of high level 'we must gird our loins' statement to the populace. 5 million under arms is of course well beyond what would be needed here. I'm thinking more like 1/10th that number. **** https://jamestown.org/program/lessons-of-the-ukraine-war-thus-far/ This piece from late Sept is interesting, although like most think tank pieces it's very handwavy high level and doesn't give specific answers as to what they're doing NOW: The idea of a peacetime small contract army was quite popular in Ukraine before 2022... Developments since the February 24 invasion have made clear that the peacetime strength of 215,000 troops in the Ukrainian Armed Forces was not enough... In 2021, reform of the territorial defense forces (TDFs) was quite popular. This was done through institutionalization of a separate command chain responsible directly to the commander in chief, with each region having its own brigade [but] deployment of TDFs was [only] completed during the actual fighting. In the end, TDFs enabled the addition of approximately 200,000 troops to regular formations quickly. Currently, Ukraine has a government-estimated 1 million men and women under arms that include the defense and security sectors.... Ukraine needs an enlarged peacetime contract army numbering approximately 300,000 to 350,000 men...it is telling that Poland decided to increase the strength of its armed forces from 143,000 to 300,000 in the next five years. An increased number of regular contract troops demands an overhaul of the Ukrainian army’s command structure. One possible variant might be the creation of an intermediate level of command similar to the use of military districts during peacetime. **** https://harpers.org/archive/2022/07/searching-from-the-ukrainian-foreign-legion/ I also ran across this long form colour piece from July, relating the misadventures of the many Western volunteers who showed up in Ukraine in March and April. Hemingway stuff.

Request: Does anyone have any coherent and current info on Ukrainian manpower readiness and buildup? (Written sources much preferred, svp) 1. It seems things are going all right with the volunteer army they've built up (MacGregor's fever dream of 400k casualties/100k KIA aside). And anecdotally, volunteers have been turned away. 2. But you'd think that with 1/5 of your land still under invasion from a much larger neighbour also threatening to exterminate your people, you'd want a bit more safety margin. 3. With a manpower pool of about 5 million men, say, half a million additional lads trained up to TD standard and ready to go, just in case? 4. I can't imagine the UKR wartime economy is offering scads of job opps right now... be keen to hear more about that as well. So even if they're not needed on the fronts, it might seem wise to get them organised, just in case? even as 'weekend warriors'? 5. Zelenskiyy 'canceled the fall draft' according to some recent reports, but I don't know what to make of that. As in, replaced it with something else? or doesn't need new recruits? Google search is drowning in the usual stuff about Russia's recruiting woes. What gives here? ***** ....This is from July-Aug, which is about an aeon ago in this war. https://www.npr.org/2022/08/15/1117605630/ukrainians-express-worries-over-conscription-following-russias-invasion https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/world/middleeast/ukraine-soldiers-recruitment-draft.html Cheers!

Pairing this thread with Mick Ryan's latest on the practicalities (for RU) of evacuating the Kherson bridgehead. Great synthesis here. We might expect the later stages of their withdrawal to be chaotic.