LongLeftFlank

Hot take: Less Falaise, more Korsun! (i.e. don't let these combat veterans escape the trap and become cadres to train the mobiks).

Apologies if he's a friend of yours, but this kind of stuff, however intelligent and erudite, is why I avoid 'political science' (and 'social sciences' in general). And that's in spite of IR being my undergrad major (actually it was sports, with a minor in drinking). 1. 'integrate' various (ideologically constructed) interpretations of historical events, with data, preferably drawing connections nobody has thought of before. Novelty value is important. 2. 'synthesize' -- and publish and promote! -- an explanatory/predictive framework that, well, explains and predicts. Until it doesn't. 3. To me, it all amounts to Eisenhower's famous dictum: plans are worthless, planning is everything. ....Which is to say that any 'framework' or thesis will almost surely be pants, because reasons (confounding variables) which only become crystal clear in hindsight. But by doing the exercise, you may know which levers to pull first and hardest, as you scramble to adapt to emerging reality. 4. However, in practice academics and think-tankers don't really get to pull those levers. Even when they do get to sit at the grown-ups' table (McNamara, Kissinger, Rumsfeld) they merely clamour for the occasional attention of those who do. And, on the consultant pattern, they are usually asked to provide a retroactive paper trail for what the Decider's gut feeling and experience is already telling them to do. There is no tabula rasa. One cynical old guy's opinion. YMMV. And yes, I did read it through closely, and was going to quote a few bits, but realised the entire approach was... well, what I just wrote above.

Wikimapia is also a very interesting resource, as users can annotate (Google) maps with such things as town boundaries, factories and topographical features, sometimes even military features. Notice that the Kherebets and Krasna rivers (N-S) are fed by E-W ravines (Yars....) which cut up what looks like deceptively open country. http://wikimapia.org/m/#lat=49.1497024&lon=38.056958&z=11&l=1&m=b Note also the Kreminski-Kaptazhi Hydrological Reserve (wetlands, pretty nasty this time of year), shielding the NW approach to Kreminna. To the NE there is a 7012ha regrowth zone from a 1996 wildfire. So tbh Kreminna looks a lot more like another 'flank and surround' op than a straight punch. Takeaway: 1. Especially with rasputitsa approaching, cross country maneuver is not as easy as it may look on the Google maps. Ergo UA advances will likely be roadbound, with their advances depending heavily on the state of RA disarray. 2. Key difference being that the Ukes have the infantry to flank and neutralise blocking positions, especially hasty and undermanned ones lacking artillery support.

Noted. And thanks, I think. https://kyivindependent.com/national/why-is-russia-so-vulnerable-to-himars-in-ukraine Russian supply lines depend on railway communications, which inevitably keeps them bound to railway stations and junctions. Russian military bloggers have admitted that switching to a more flexible system would take months or even years, which is not a viable solution during the ongoing war.

Wow, this thread certainly went to hell quickly (sorry to single you out)!

WarMonitor's topo from yesterday. So interesting (and telling) that the RU isn't showing any ability to organise defences in this sector beyond holing up in a few towns. You'd think a hedgehog approach would make some kind of sense for them, delay and attrite while they get their act together. But artillery to bracket the gaps is essential to making that work, and that's not much in evidence here (except on the Ukrainian side). It really looks like Russia has staked everything -- and concentrated all its remaining forces -- on holding the 'land bridge' (they know Kherson is going to fall eventually), angling for a cease fire using everything from nukes to kidnapped children as bargaining chips, and brazening out a 'win' that way. See, I have gathered in the land of Novorossiya! ****** For avoidance of doubt, I'm not saying this is going to WORK. But reducing this province in a winter offensive is going to be a new challenge for Ukraine and its allies. Dropping the Kerch bridge and blowing the Donetsk rail / roadway lines and starving them out isn't going to be enough, I think.

I skimmed over all the pages of German bashing/remonstration, but here, let me take a gratuitous shot at the Mother Country.

War of Independence, indeed. My go-to map guy (other than @Grigb) HeliosRunner has taken personal leave for the duration, so I am rooting around for decent maps (non Google). Pfarrer uses topos, but he also covers them with textboxes and little explosion doodads and Giant Blue Arrows of Doom. Anyway, will keep looking. This snip was interesting.... so clearly the Zherebets above Zarichne will NOT make a viable RU defensive line, even temporarily.

I find MacKay's constant use of non-English native speaker propaganda words like 'rashist invaders' to be an annoying affectation. Is would be more amusing if fake Scotsman guy spoke mock pidgin Russiaglish, like 'Boris Alotovkrap' who used to troll (the other trolls) on ZH. Death to moose and squirrel....

Another propaganda bullseye.... Bonus

From 'Map Sketcher'. Note the soft ground anchoring the left and the woodlands on the right. EDIT: Per the below, it looks like the UA has broken through in force further east, directly threatening Kreminna, so this is now just a face of a larger cauldron. ...Posting as a useful reminder of the major N-S arteries in Luhansk.

Interesting, if true.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2_Black_Panther#Current_operators https://web.archive.org/web/20220729165048/https://cdn.defence24.pl/2022/07/29/b8a347b7-2dc4-4ddb-82dc-b49174860aa2.pdf Yes, bird in the hand, etc. But could deliveries be accelerated and then, ahem, rerouted? With a second set of training and maintenance courses, hosted iin Poland and conducted in Ukrainian?

Yes, the UN has always been a talking (and posturing) shop whose effectiveness at bottom relied on the postwar Pax Americana. That hegemony began decaying (like some radioactive element I'm too lazy to Google) almost instantly, for many reasons. The SC was as much a sop to the fading imperial powers as to the (delusion) that China and the USSR could be coaxed into the responsible community of nations, and that the Big 5 could collectively keep the rest in line, fed, etc. (The Four Freedoms). Greece 1946+, Israel 1947, Berlin 1948 and Korea 1950 put that idealism away pretty quickly, as did Suez 1956. EDIT: It was also a convenient way for (mainly African) dictators to get their political opponents out of the country, with their families. Here, here's a plush office, a brownstone and free parking in Manhattan. Now go away.

Perfect. They can load the cartridges into these..... We all remember the legends from Vietnam days that AKs had such loose tolerances that they could shoot under any conditions. So they can walk the talk now.

Yup, and Yampil is a good place. UKR has more and better infantry, so once the town falls, clearing the (mined) forests is straightforward. That puts them on the Lyman-Kreminna highway far enough east not only to fully cut off Lyman but to flank Torske, which anchors the next north-south river line on the Zherebets river. The Russians would need to divert serious forces to (maybe) halt a further advance on northern Luhansk Oblast.

Yampil is a tough nut to crack, it would seem. Dug up an old (April!) topo map from HeliosRunner, who is offline. Yampil is that village nestled at the edge of the forest in the southeast quadrant. UKR has been attacking it since at least 10 Sept. A future CM scenario? I like these maps because unlike the 'solid mass of green' Google maps, they clearly contrast the wooded and built up areas from cultivated zones, showing readily how defensible Lyman is, from either direction -- it took RU 7 weeks to take it in the spring. The flanks are well anchored so any envelopment needs to be large.

Umm, nice photo but that's YOUR country that's burning in the background (assuming these are UA troops). Maybe you want to make yourself useful? @sburke

Hey you, get back to your beautiful bride! It's ok just to lurk here for a while. PS I read somplace that UA are attacking tactically around Kupyansk to ensure they keep optionality to hit that 'hinge'. Will post if I find it WarMonitor sometimes gets a little RUMINTY, but fingers crossed.... About 15km NE of Kupyansk! So, looks like they're pushing out, if true.

Exiled Russian economists see very dark days ahead for the Rodina. It won't be the first time in their history though that there are demographic 'missing millions'.... "Our cursed capacity for suffering" Oh, and Galeev not bullish on draft riots leading to regional insurrection leading to his 'National Divorce', at least not in the near term. ....He could be wrong though, particularly about the Caucasus. And the West has at least one client (Georgia) able to stir the pot there.

From WarMonitor3, situation dated 13 Sept, but topo map shows how if Yampil -- in the center of that map -- falls (it's been under attack for 3 days or more and UA seems to have a foothold in town), Lyman is cut off and the UA is through the forests and onto the Kreminna road. The whole front line moves from the Oskil to the Zherebets river (that long blue reservoir), but Torske (south end of reservoir) is already flanked.... So Kreminna, with its key rail line supplying Luhansk, could well be under threat in as soon as a couple of weeks, assuming the UA can keep punching holes and flanking RU towns.