LongLeftFlank

Perfect. They can load the cartridges into these..... We all remember the legends from Vietnam days that AKs had such loose tolerances that they could shoot under any conditions. So they can walk the talk now.

Yup, and Yampil is a good place. UKR has more and better infantry, so once the town falls, clearing the (mined) forests is straightforward. That puts them on the Lyman-Kreminna highway far enough east not only to fully cut off Lyman but to flank Torske, which anchors the next north-south river line on the Zherebets river. The Russians would need to divert serious forces to (maybe) halt a further advance on northern Luhansk Oblast.

Yampil is a tough nut to crack, it would seem. Dug up an old (April!) topo map from HeliosRunner, who is offline. Yampil is that village nestled at the edge of the forest in the southeast quadrant. UKR has been attacking it since at least 10 Sept. A future CM scenario? I like these maps because unlike the 'solid mass of green' Google maps, they clearly contrast the wooded and built up areas from cultivated zones, showing readily how defensible Lyman is, from either direction -- it took RU 7 weeks to take it in the spring. The flanks are well anchored so any envelopment needs to be large.

Umm, nice photo but that's YOUR country that's burning in the background (assuming these are UA troops). Maybe you want to make yourself useful? @sburke

Hey you, get back to your beautiful bride! It's ok just to lurk here for a while. PS I read somplace that UA are attacking tactically around Kupyansk to ensure they keep optionality to hit that 'hinge'. Will post if I find it WarMonitor sometimes gets a little RUMINTY, but fingers crossed.... About 15km NE of Kupyansk! So, looks like they're pushing out, if true.

Exiled Russian economists see very dark days ahead for the Rodina. It won't be the first time in their history though that there are demographic 'missing millions'.... "Our cursed capacity for suffering" Oh, and Galeev not bullish on draft riots leading to regional insurrection leading to his 'National Divorce', at least not in the near term. ....He could be wrong though, particularly about the Caucasus. And the West has at least one client (Georgia) able to stir the pot there.

From WarMonitor3, situation dated 13 Sept, but topo map shows how if Yampil -- in the center of that map -- falls (it's been under attack for 3 days or more and UA seems to have a foothold in town), Lyman is cut off and the UA is through the forests and onto the Kreminna road. The whole front line moves from the Oskil to the Zherebets river (that long blue reservoir), but Torske (south end of reservoir) is already flanked.... So Kreminna, with its key rail line supplying Luhansk, could well be under threat in as soon as a couple of weeks, assuming the UA can keep punching holes and flanking RU towns.

OK, noted, and no longer disagreeing. But might you and kraze possibly find it in yourselves to contribute something about the actual war here, just now and again?

...Well, excepting their occasional (?) habit of driving mounted IFVs right up to within 50 metres of the enemy foxholes. That works for me in CM (new or old) pretty much never! But who knows, it might work for them sometimes/usually? (in video non veritas)

...I've mainly steered clear of the periodic The Tank Is Dead / No It Isn't do loop, but these Luttwak tweets (and fine, EL is better at strategy than pure military) seems topical. Question: what makes heavy tanks more valuable in the south? I take it he is assuming a break-in to prepared positions, as opposed to shredding an undermanned front.... - superior cross country ability - ability to shrug off flank shots and near miss 152mm - high velocity direct fire cannon - [what else] What would a brigade of M1s or Challies, say, bring to a 'breaking up' of the Kherson bridgehead, using the referenced scenario as an example?

Great reporting and imagery, as always mate! For RU, shifting substantial forces (and their all-important artillery) to these now hot zones, including the north (remember, Kupyansk was the primary LOC hub) has got to be a real headache. Hence, they are risking (costly) TacAir strikes. Ivan still seems to be on the back foot! HeliosRunner took a mapping break today, but he seems convinced Yampil is firmly .

Alakazam!!!! But let's please leave that discussion over there. A

https://sadefensejournal.com/spirit-of-the-bayonet-bayonet-charge-in-basra

The bang in Odessa, from a Russian cheerleader.... I assume they blurred most of the image because it did in fact hit something important. Fine, pretty large column, but it could be anywhere, from any time. Hey, whatever gets you through the day....

Our maps are better than their maps.... Did they hire John Madden to do their mapwork, or what?

Looks like Lyman is surrounded, or at least outflanked and untenable. UA about to take another bite off the elephant and move up to the next river line. Liberate Rubizhhne by October? Bring in some more (gently used) Russian guns, by all means. If nothing else, decoys until the Saheed problem can be solved.

Paging 617 Squadron. Not the bouncing bombs, the 'earthquake bombs': Tallboys and Grand Slams. Now, if the boffins can just work on how to deliver the package.... Kherson Cat "The gap just under 20m is narrow enough to bridge using mobile bridges."

"500s"

I wonder how long before the Saheed factory in Iran has a smoking related accident? By the look of it though, the guidance package is the key bit (Chinese electronics?). Otherwise, it really seems to be a V1 level technology.

(Charest, but I'm nostalgic). Hey, the way global currencies are plunging against the 'cleanest dirty shirt' (USD), the cryptonomicons could have a point.... but sorry, OT. Someone might meme me.

Catch up with today's new forum vibe, Daddy-o. We're all groovy now.