LongLeftFlank

Sorry, after hanging out in Bohemian bars in Toronto, NYC, DC and San Fran in my younger years, and in married middle age, simply walking by the Czech airlines check-in counters at any airport (filled with long-legged blonde stunners), I can tell you that any guys left alive in.... the Artist Formerly Known as Kaliningrad should be crawling on their knees to achieve this Anschluss!

Ride to the sound of the guns....

OK, plain language explanation of what just happened in the Kherson bridgehead... https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update-for-october-2-3 On October 2nd, Ukraine launched a massive armored attack down the T-403 highway that runs roughly parallel to the Dnipro river. This attack occurred during stormy conditions that limited Russian air cover and the use of drones and coincided with an electronic warfare attack that jammed all Russian communications. Ukraine charged down the highway, shattering the first line of defenses and rolling down to Havrylivka and Dudchany, over 20km from their starting positions. Russia reportedly blew the bridge in Dudchany, hindering the Ukrainian advance.

1. Defmon tends to be dead on, but also about 1-2 days behind actual developments these days. So we'll soon be getting photos and vids from Rubizhne suburbs.... 2. Know your enemy and know yourself, and in a thousand battles you will never be in peril... (some old Chinese guy) Related, from Pat Lang's blog.... https://turcopolier.com/putin-should-be-worried-about-ukraine-capturing-one-of-russias-new-t-90m-tanks/#comments I used to have an office that was devoted to bringing thingies like this back to CONUS for reverse engineering. My lads paid good money for “the Bear’s spares.”

Sad there is no button!

So... I know the Finns are about as non-imperialist-minded as any white people who ever lived. But would there be any interest up there in, umm 'sponsoring' Karelia and Petsamo? Extending remarks: at a guess, the ancient Arctic peoples of.... the entire Arctic shoreline, Uralia and maybe around to Sakhalin would jump at a chance to (re)join Finland and the EU, as a Eurasian version of Nunavut? Given, frankly, that the alternative for them is brutal Chinese colonisation a la Uighurs, and they know that perfectly well. Russian-majority Murmansk, Archangel and Yekaterinburg could also be open to reasonable offers. (St. Petersburg would seem better aligned with a 'Novgorod Republic', under Baltic sponsorship) ***** No, seriously guys, I have had to skim pages and pages of 20 flavours of nuclear doomsday and Russian orcish Götterdamerung. ....But what if Putin orders the Rocket Forces to press the button, and the generals (maybe including Shoigu btw, who is no fool) decide that no I don't want everyone I ever loved to vanish in a nuclear fireball, storm the Kremlin, shoot his ***, massacre his chef and Halal Tiktok boy, and all the various other chekists, mafiyas and Praetorians, announce complete and unconditional withdrawal from Ukraine and then abjectly throw themselves on the mercy of the West. War is over. What happens then? Note that in 1986, the above would have seemed like crazy talk. Until it happened.

Yes, as you guys know I am about the last regular on this thread to be overoptimistic, but this starts to look like the 8th Army operations on Luzon in 1945, where every attack no matter how whacky simply couldn't seem to go wrong. Until they hit urban Manila Hey, let's drop a battalion of paras on the west tip of Corregidor at the exact moment we take the boat landing; Hold my beer! Let's airdrop another battalion flawlessly along the rim of the Tagaytay volcano crater, cutting the one road to the Nasugbu beachhead. That's nothing! How about we and a bunch of newly recruited (but extremely enthusiastic to kill Japanese) Filipinos launch a night raid across a lake to secure a POW camp)? .... At this point, announcement of an amphibious coup de main seizing Sebastopol or Perekop wouldn't even surprise me.

Martin anticipates an eventual third Ukrainian counteroffensive, one that launches from Zaporizhia—midway between Kherson and Donbas—toward Mariupol, an historic port city that the Russians destroyed and occupied this spring. The idea, Martin explained, is Ukraine “using its strategic reserve to sever the Russian armed forces in Ukraine into two pieces that cannot mutually reinforce.” I dunno mate, at this point it seems like the UA is simply dismantling the RA opportunistically wherever it encounters them, kind of like the Red Army during the Lvov-Sandomierz operations that culminated in the Brody pocket (Steve @Battlefront.com, that being one pocket the Germans did *not* break out of in any good order). Whether the Ivans attack, hedgehog, dig in or fall back simply doesn't seem to make a difference. Collapse?

T.E. Lawrence, Orde Wingate, Popski, and all the other oddballs are giving UA a cheer from Valhalla! And Guderian nods (although Schneller Heinz still has some time to serve in Hell).

Sorry to be so bloodthirsty, but the VDV units north of the Dnepr need to be aggressively cut off and destroyed -- as in KIA or prisoners -- not allowed to escape, even weaponless, across the river. Is mining the Dnipr -- letting a steady stream of magnetic mines drift down -- fair play? The paras will likely sell their lives dearly, like cornered animals, but it is best that they do not furnish veteran cadre for new formations, whether for purposes of a future war, or for internal repression on behalf of the next set of thugs who take control in Moscow.

Russian blogger 'Sladkov', quoted at length on Pat Lang's blog. https://turcopolier.com/combined-arms-tactics-ttg/ Ukrainians do not take Liman and other villages head-on. There are forests and swamps around [them]. They operate in maneuverable groups, up to a platoon, three jeeps, one “Kozak” (something in between our “Typhoon” and “Tiger”). That’s it. And there are many such groups going forward. There is no big collective goal, they do not accumulate in one place. Their comms are reliable (stable closed communication between groups and headquarters, use of large and small UAVs). They inspire fear with their appearance (who knows, maybe it’s a regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine coming towards you). These groups envelop the villages, block them. The same way the militants in August 1996 took Grozny. Everything from the fact that we [Russians] lock ourselves in our bases, do not pierce the entire space around with tentacles, do not have the active defense initiative, give it to the enemy.... If there is a city in front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and operational space around, they will go the same way, in front of the “Cossack patrol” then large groups, but also enveloping the city. And then, figuratively speaking, the bend of the arm behind the back, followed by strangulation. **** From the comments “In the war with Ruin, the bureaucracy wins." Serdyukov laid a mine under the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation”. It includes a quoted passage from a DPR commander complaining that he is drowning in paperwork (machine translation): “I don’t see or hear any personnel. Organized the shooting — couldn’t attend. I prepare bottled “forms”, personnel security clearances, a patient record book, an evening verification log, training plans, platoon logs. I don’t have any company equipment — there are reports on fuel and lubricants, receiving and writing off ammunition… There is a war going on, and I don’t see people: meetings, papers, reports, offices.” The author ends with this staggering claim: During the Great Patriotic War, a combat order took up half a page and was often issued after the fact, to avoid wasting time and losing operational understanding of the situation. Now the order is 10-20 A4 sheets for the simplest task and is issued before its oral delivery. And, God forbid, it will not comply with the governing documents invented by Serdyukov. And there is always someone to report “inconsistencies” in the actions of real commanders https/katyusha.org/vojna/v-vojne-s-ruinoj-pobezhdaet-byurokratiya.-minu-pod-mo-rf-zalozhil-serdyukov.html (in Russian) ...I dunno, sounds to me like Serdyukov actually had some fairly sound ideas, even though he and his Amazon girlfriend took a nice slice for themselves. Paying off the greater thief at least protects you from the lesser thieves ... a pattern of corruption as old as human civilisation.

Cooper can be a bit hit or miss (or his own sources are) when it comes to situation reports, but I agree this is pretty good synthesis, many thanks. Whether motorised or airborne, the Russian infantry is ‘vehicle tied’. Its troops rarely venture more than 100 metres away from their vehicles. Because these vehicles are easy to detect and track — whether by radars, by infra-red or low-light TV systems — the Russian infantry is quite easy to find, too. On the contrary, Ukrainian infantry is frequently operating ‘miles away’ from its supporting vehicles. I.e. ZSU infantry is much harder to find.

Kreminna Remember 1200 pages back when we were all counting Russian BTGs?

I guess if I were an LPR soldier, I'd be looking for some chemical escape too.

Gonna be a mainly infantry operation. Hydrological reserve of local importance in Ukraine. Area: 3900 hectares.... a unique underground water deposit in the Pishchany Yeryk stream (Krasna River valley). It is of karst origin, in the Upper Cretaceous zone, in which there is a system of karst cavities. Many water sources come to the surface as lakes, among which the largest is Lyman (1.5 km in diameter). It is the source of water supply for the city of Kreminna. Water supply: 9,300 m³ per day. Here are also the forest massif (mainly pine) and large meadow-swamp areas.

Formation locations, as of 1 Oct (MilitaryLand.net) RUMINT Amazon special delivery....

I challenge you to back up this assertion with credible documentary sources beyond your 'chat' group. If not, you are entirely sh*tposting at this point.

Source? I got a dressing down from @The_Capt a while back when I dared suggest UA ought to use AP mines, since the RU clearly wasn't observing the treaty (to be fair, they never signed). BTW, I listened to the first 8 minutes of the McGregor podcast with Napolitano, which was about all I could take. The Colonel is... sane acting and appearing. He also seems tired. Evidently 80% of the Russian army is still in Russia, thanks to the forbearance of dear, kind Mr. Putin. No, he didn't want to cause excessive local hardship by having too many Russian soldiers come in in February. Against the advice of his own general staff. But after Ukronazis murderously shelled thousands of freedom loving future Russian referendum voters queued in front of polling stations, Good Saint Vlad reluctantly changed his mind. The gloves are off now. Oh, and all those middle aged drunken mobiks are merely relieving the 'Laaarge Number of Combat Ready Professional Soldiers In The Greater Niagara Falls Area' that will now be free to redeploy to Ukraine. ...Yeah, that's 8 minutes I will never have back again. But I reckoned I'd give him a listen, once, in case there was something to learn. So you don't have to (You're welcome). Nope.

1. Good question. 2. What air defense doing? Just wait and see, b*txhez.... (My bet is behind the Dnipro front, waiting for RU jets from Millerovo)

For the future scenario design files.

I was just thinking about that. Great Helmsman Xi could probably use a hundred billion in USD denominated overseas assets right now, although only a fraction of that would likely be practically recoverable.

Exactly. Bottom line: it ain't their motherland, no matter how much the keyboard warriors say it is. So why the hell should they dig? If it turns out the 'hohols' have you zeroed (again), you run the hell away.

Yup. Our revels now are ended. 1. Decapitation, or near as dammit.... Thread shows how all the targets were selected. This is an *urban area*, and well behind enemy lines. Just amazing C4ISR! I am the eye in the sky, looking at you.... 2. French media is chuckling about General 'Lapin', Russia's fearsome 'Killer Rabbit.' ...There's a double entendre around lapin: cuckold / complaisant / clueless / feckless, etc., but I'll leave that to an actual Frenchman to explain. 3. Looks like some TikTok fedayeen finally ran across some traffic lights that shot back... Run through the jungle.... 4. Good old American snark

Hoom haroom! Also, the Entwives didn't go far....