LongLeftFlank

Yes, either my usual OSINT go to sources are honouring OPSEC, or the source report on this counterattack is a little over the skis. ...That said, the UA wouldn't blow a weir if they had nothing at all in mind.

Posting the bigger topo from HeliosRunner here, for those who like poring over maps....

Many thanks for this. I also recall that a major problem for the BTGs during the 'mobile phase' of the war was that they were massively short of infantry to do things, oh, like screening AFVs and LOCs, or later the gaps between fortified villages. Part of that was (what turned out to be) a weakness in the TO&E itself. But ISTR it was even more a function of most 'contract' (i.e. career) soldiers having graduated from ordinary grunt into specialty arms (e.g. gunners, mechanics). On the legacy Red Army pattern, the infantry units, as well as the skeleton 'third battalions' of each MRD, were expected to be fleshed out during mobilisation with lower skilled conscripts (мелкота) and reservists. ....BUT said mobilisation never occurred prior to Putin's 3 day 'SMO'. So except for the VDV and marines, the BTG infantry mainly rolled into Ukraine with skeleton staffs.... and quickkly consumed what starshini and junior officer cadres they did have. Along with whatever specialists could be poached from other parts of the unit, issued rifles and told to learn on the job. Next genius move, as I recall, was cannibalising their training units for experienced infantry (so they now have to find their DI's in brick-bashing Belarus). In the waning days of the Kherson bridgehead, Afgantsy-Chechnya veteran General Surovikin began attaching VDV platoons to mech BTGs to beef them out. This visibly helped their effectiveness on defence and let them dish out some nasty tactical defeats to the Ukrainian mech. Not least, I suspect, because the paras felt free to tell their officers to eff the eff off when given suicidal or nonsensical instructions. So they could fight a little like Ukrainians. ....By fall, as we know, they were finally getting mobiks in volume. Without many veterans left to show them the ropes though. Or it went something like that, anyway.

I've wondered about this too. Is it just Wagner's thugs screwing up the RA's already shaky organisation?

Yanqui go home lol

Hmm, so their divisions are basically taking all their best cadre and throwing them into high casualty close assaults? Essentially a form of organisational autophagy.

Tire grog extraordinaire Trent T writes an interesting thread on (absent) Russian logistics. Here's the punchline, may be a little OTT but I know little about this area. Kill all the trucks! *** OTOH, Philips O'Brien seems to support his thesis.... https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/russia-ukraine-war-one-year-national-identity/673192/ By overlooking Russia’s systemic weaknesses, Western analysts helped create the mess that democratic nations find themselves in today.... The presumption, based on weaponry counts, that Ukraine was far too weak to resist Russia in open combat delayed the provision of significant military aid.

OK, I am now picturing General Secretary Lugnuts putting a bandage on his head and bringing to life the full glorious spectacle of 'Gumby Theatre'!

Good stuff, cheers. This looks like that 'belly formation' UkraineVolunteer is describing in his latest post. Except in that case, the Russians don't have a firm fix on the Ukrainian defensive scheme in the woodlands. And they can't neutralise the UA artillery. Author reply to a comment on the thread: As far as I know 1st and 2nd corps, VDV, and some motor rifle brigades are doing this. They usually just form few of these "assault units" within the brigade/regiment. The quality and longevity really depends on the unit, but overall it's not great

Holy old codger! @Kinophile (and other believers), too mean to die UkraineVolunteer is back on the grid, after being missing for 19 days. His squad is operating in the teeth of the Russian winter push, in the new Forest of Assassins between Kreminna and the Seversky Donetz. https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/02/24/they-are-scared-of-this-forest-as-they-should-be/ We underwent about six Russian attacks. Mostly people, but heavy artillery and even two airstrikes. 'Belly formation', a lagging push between two flanks. In this case to provide for supply and manpower reserves. The main difference is accurate artillery. We have it, they do not. The Yooks split their attack and drove them back, leaving a mess behind.... my count was 80 or so in the area we walked back through. Our task was basic forward combat patrol.... First time our drones got jammed completely out. The Yook military might be, pound-for-pound, the most lethal fighting force on the planet at this point. [A PW] told us that experienced soldiers tend to stay clear of tanks, since they are valuable targets and the Yooks would take a lot of risk to destroy them. He also said it had a detrimental impact on combined arms.

I am assuming nothing about US politics, including one faction or the other being All the Bad Things Under The Bed. That tangent will need to proceed without me, thanks. **** But hey, look over there, Berlusconi! https://www.politico.eu/article/european-conservatives-berlusconi-ukraine-war-conflict-zelenskyy-putin-epp/

Alison..... Is that a dude's name now? I am so confused. Of course, back in the day it used to be a radial engine.

Then the Anglosphere (US-Canada-Britain) sponsors a new 'Amber Alliance*' taking in Norway + Sweden + Finland + Baltics + Poland + Ukraine... keeping a seat warm for a free Belarus. Pass the pickled herring.... * IIRC, amber was a key commodity traded down the Dnipr, from Neolithic times. @Beleg85?

Look, I sound like a China basher here. No, I just loathe the CPC (and Communists in general). I love the Chinese people; after a freeking awful 150 years (mainly self inflicted, although they do love blaming it on opium and Brits), they are just back to doing what they've always done: getting rich (well there is that despoiling the planet thing, but that's a species wide problem)..... So here's the interesting thing, true all through history: the moment Chinese get out from under the full grasp and control of the Emperor in Beijing (or you have an enlightened Emperor who gives up a little control, always temporarily though), that's when they do REALLY well. Exhibits A,B,C.... Taiwan, Singapore, HK, the entire overseas Chinese diaspora. So fine, China Inc. sets up shop in Mexico, Vietnam, etc. What you just described is multinationals. Beijing doesn't get to sock puppet all these organisations, no matter what kind of spyware they put on their phones. The mountains are high and the Emperor is far away. And btw, the waters in between are still owned by the US Navy.

This thread is once again 'writing its name in the river', but the only hubris I see is on the part of BRICS (plus a few Western white guilt types, Marxist retreads and declinist gold bugs). First, they ain't anything like a bloc: Brazil and India play their own game, and South Africa is far more likely to become Yugoslavia or Iraq than the capital of Africa. So we're really talking about China. Talk about hubris, these guys in Zhongnanghai are 1910 Kaiser-Wilhelem-just-fired-Bismarck level self-centered, arrogant and stupid. China has yet to enforce hegemony in its own coastal waters, still less along any other trade route, sea, land or air. It's sporadically fighting its supposed cohort India in the Himalayas, and Pakistan is eyeing other options when last seen. Its other nearby 'allies' are a grab bag of misery (DPRK? Myanmar? Laos?), and as for the rest its support lasts exactly as long as its massive flows of subsidised white elephants and baksheesh. None of this adds up to anything close to an alternative power bloc that credibly challenges the Western order in the here and now, or for at least 2 decades.

Sure, I kinda see where you're coming from, but I'm here to discuss the Ukraine war. ...So if you have a hypothesis that the BRICS and 'Global South' are now strong enough to defy/frustrate the West and help Russia achieve victory or a stalemate (frozen conflict) before this war ends, go ahead and outline the mechanisms. Otherwise, it's OT. And saying well, they are the future, etc. is kind of handwavy. I live and do business in developing Asia, and what I see is that regardless of what US-bashing local press and pols may spout, there is simply NO comparison between the influence of Western capital and cultural exchange and that of China et al. The latter's influence and popularity is presently limited 100% to what it can buy. ...When I see thousands upon thousands of top quality Indian engineers emigrating to Moscow, Shenzhen or Joburg instead of California and Toronto, I'll start to worry.

Thanks for responding. ...But if you're determined to believe the BRICS economies outweigh the G7, I can't really help you further. Have you spent time in any of those 5 countries? (3 for me).

and therefore.... what?

Yes, I agree with this, with the caveat that 76th is conducting live fire OJT for its mobiks. Autocannon sieving buildings.... ...Once Steve rotates Charles' brainjar back from content to features, I hope in the next CM 'bump up' we can see a lot more 'gunsmoke' and dust rising off weapon strikes, especially 12.7mm and above.

Not so sure about that. Opsec is tight, but this seems like more of an even fight among infantry groups, with better Ukrainian artillery offset by RU air support (RUAF bases like Millerovo are closer to this front). The Ivans (76th VDV) look like they've learned to fight more like the Ukes. Due to the river lines, there's little threat of a strategic breakthrough here; worst case would be they push as far as Yampil-Liman (a vulnerable salient for them though, with one road to supply it). So UA is likely economising its force commitments here. Topo map, though dated last week. "City of Light"

In the central Luhansk sector, it seems like the Russians are again able to use the north-south Troitske-Svatove-Kreminna highway. They've largely pushed the UA back to the Zherebets river line. 'UkraineVolunteer' hasn't checked in since early Feb, and his SOF group was (for those who believe in him) active in the woodlands SW of Kreminna.

L'histoire est que le modèle de pantoufles de soie descendant les escaliers pour le tonnerre de bottes cloutées escalade de bas en haut. (But wealth helps, yes)

Yes, very much so. I know which side I'm on personally (like you ), so not about to elaborate. Look at a map.

Sure, except for the smug 'fallacious reasoning' ad hom. If he'd stuck around long enough to elaborate or provide some supporting facts, I might have let that slide.

Yeah, the only meaningful goad to industrial policy in the US of A has always been a military threat. So forget Bill Gates buying up farmland, look for Blackstone or someone seeing a buy opportunity in blighted (and in some cases, lightly dioxin coated ) US industrial zones with the potential and 'bones' (rusted rail tracks, retirees not too far gone to teach trades, etc.) to be revivified as defence plants. All subsidised by moar debt. Money printer go brrrrrrrrrrrr.....