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LongLeftFlank

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Everything posted by LongLeftFlank

  1. ACHTUNG! this is RU TV footage (posted by pro-UKR source), and there is some dispute over which army this actually is (some folks swear they see a Z on one wreck). But the shellfire is hellishly intense, and concentrated. P.S. One would think however, that since the Russians now seem to control the area of this battle, there would be all kinds of gruesome closeups, trumpeting Wagner's massacre of hohols...
  2. Sorry DF, that slot's taken You can challenge for the title once you draw at least a half-page sized text Wall of Exasperation from @The_Capt.
  3. For the CM next gen special effects files: Shades of Ortona
  4. Good response, thanks, especially on cheap Chinese kit, although here in Asia I notice there are some really high quality Chinese consumer brands, like Xiaomi (Mi). But sounds like you're in the business. I am really just trying to challenge the 'Time Is On Ukraine's Side' folks. The bar goes up over time, don't count on Russia rotting in place while Ukraine prepares the Big Push. However, I think we will have to disagree on how large a role luck (and timely Western-provided ISR?) played in 'shaping' those opportunistic counterattacks. To me your take reads like 20/20 hindsight; especially in the early days, nobody was in a position to set cunning traps. While signs of Russian incapacity were there from the start, for those here with eyes to see it, nobody knew yet just how universal it was and how long it would last without serious attempts at remedy.
  5. Thanks for at least writing a proper reply, but with regard to my point, it isn't really much more responsive than Jon's (which didn't even rise to the level of sophistry). ....You both are effectively talking down: be still Grasshopper, such things are all far too complex and unknowable (OPSEC), and it is pure alarmism to be bringing it up at all, nuffink to see here. Just put your trust in the All Knowing UA Generalstabs and wait to see what they unleash. Meanwhile, enjoy scrolling another hundred 'Dumb Mobik' Tweets and Western political handwringing, or wev, while we await the Big Push. **** ....So one more time, let me restate my hypothesis: (1) Based on the vast preponderance of evidence presented in this thread since Feb 2022, the 'correlation of forces' in this war strongly favours the Defence. With the exceptions in point (4) below, large scale set piece attacks by either side have been pyrrhic, at best eking out positional gains not exploitable and not justified by the costs. (2) While at an operational level the Russians are still (stupidly) attacking, with results that continue to support point (1), strategically speaking they are the Defender. (3) To 'win' the war (as defined by themselves), Putin must now Defend most of the lands his army holds until a cease fire is finally declared (a la Korea). That could take years, but Russia doesn't just dissolve away. (4) To date, Attackers have retaken territory only when (a) Defenders have vacated it, due to overextending or a supply crisis, or (b) when Defenders were caught in the process of redeploying, as happened in the Izium-Oskil sector in late summer. UA has done brilliantly at seizing these openings, full marks. (5) BUT to this day, neither side has solved for large scale Attacks against well-manned, prepared and supplied Defences. (6) Opinions vary as to what Attacking force is required for the modernising UA to solve for this conundrum, at the land bridge or elsewhere. (Your post, and your priors, lists out some of these and many thanks). But whether it's combined mech, or jaegers, or combat sappers, or what, overmatching and breaking the Defenders is going to take a large number of additional fresh, well-trained and kitted out troops. The force must suffice to break through, exploit and secure the gains. (7) The number of required troops is open to much debate, but seems to be in the nature of 40,000 - 65,000 (3 divisions + support)? ....and I am very open to your (or anyone else's) views, or credible links, on that topic. [And ok, fine, it isn't just a raw Number X = Success! it's quality, skillsets, deployments, all the other factors, as you duly note. But it sure as hell isn't ZERO, i.e. about the same number as fighting now, just better and moar techie]. (8) It also seems to me that in spite of OPSEC, the Ukrainians are having some difficulties generating that offensive capable force, of whatever size. Hence, 'behind the curve' (and no, I'm not about to write a trig function for those who claim ignorance of this idiom). ....Evidence remains anecdotal, fine. Hell, we're just a bunch of gamers reading twitter and reading the tea leaves. But since the UA is struggling to hold Bakhmut (I don't buy that they're yielding it willingly) and (anecdotally) throwing in raw recruits, it signals to me that that their new army is still a long way from being ready to disembowel Wagner, 76th VDV or the Russian naval infantry, even though all these units now seem ripe for a counterpunch. So let's say we find ourselves slipping back to May or June. And it turns out the Russians have, e.g. amassed 10,000 Chinese Lancets and another 10,000 NLAW/Jav knockoffs, in addition to all their other defensive works, with time to train mobiks in their use. How does the Big Push go then?
  6. You are so very clever, Socrates (or Pythagoras, if you prefer). Things are so much clearer now thanks to your incisive contribution.
  7. ...So in addition to the usual thread 'whataboutism' (i.e. Russia is coming unglued far worse and far faster, so why worry?), the consensus was: Ukraine is doing "force generation" just great, while Russia caun't, and the enlarged force all be in place for spring (with or without Leopards). The last official number quoted for AFU manpower including TDD as of July 2022 is 700,000. Frontline strength is usually cited around half that (290 prewar + 60k reservists) + 100k TDD now 'regularised' This 700k is still the standard figure cited (e.g. Gen. Hodges on CNN last week). There was also a Ukraine MoD announcement in around October I can't find now about a targeted expansion of c.60,000 (frontline troop strength). I'll keep digging. Flash forward.... https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/26/ukraine-finds-stepping-up-mobilisation-is-not-so-easy In December [Zaluzhny] told The Economist there was no immediate need for massive mobilisation; his main problems were armour and munitions. ...“You can’t mobilise 6,000 if your training ranges can hold only 3,000.” But force ratios, which once favoured Ukraine, have since tilted back towards Russia, which has mobilised at least 250,000 men since ordering partial mobilisation in September. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military leadership has been charged with building a reserve in advance of an expected counter-offensive. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/11701#:~:text=By law%2C all physically-fit,are potentially subject to conscription. Yuriy Butusov, a high-profile Ukrainian war correspondent and frequent critic of inefficient Ukrainian government, said in Jan. 31 Vlog comments that Kyiv’s manpower policies are sloppy and acknowledged that draft-dodging by a significant minority of draft-subject men is chronic. [WARNING to casual Googlers: there is a *lot* of disinformation (17 year old Ukrainian PWs, a million Uke draft dodgers in EU, etc.) being cranked out nonstop by the Russian prop machine. Case in point (Polodyaka is a quisling in RU pay): https://www.easternherald.com/2023/02/20/what-is-the-real-size-of-zelenskyys-army/]
  8. DefMon3 RTed this piece but I didn't post it, not knowing the source. But now it's here.... There's a Butusov video a few dozen pages back of some frontline grunts pointing out that the pretty medic has 'bigger b@llz' than the viewers back home. Clearly this is a real thing and the guys up front are noticing. WTF, Ukrainian civil government? 1. Why hasn't every citizen (male and female!) between 16 and 38 been training 1-2 days a week in care and feeding of basic small arms, squad tactics and tank busting? Since like, last June. 2. Where is that standing establishment of 700 - 800k trained up personnel that was supposed to be waiting in the wings by last fall? Sure, they may not be fully kitted out for some time, but they need to be ready for the call, whenever it comes. 3. The days of young men like our poor physics student here being free to let 'commoners' do the hard fighting are done. Piles of Oxfordians, Yalies and Toronto Blues died in the trenches or burned alive in aircraft. That is the CORE social contract in Western civ. Ruling class and bougies fight up front, alongside the proles! Leave it to mercs or a 'military caste' then you soon get Lombards, Yuans and Mamluks ruling you. And imperial boondoggles like Boer War/ Vietnam/ Stanbox. This has been bugging me since last fall. I can't dig for the posts right now, but it looks like Ukraine is badly behind the curve on the National Mobilisation. Their amazing army, taking advantage of Russia's endless blunders, bought them time. But has the nation used that time properly to create the additional human material that they may well need to win?
  9. https://turcopolier.com/the-extraordinary-train-lifeline-behind-ukraines-rail-force-one-ttg/ Ukraine’s vast rail network, at nearly 15,000 miles, is the 12th largest in the world. Ukrzaliznytsia is the sixth largest rail passenger transporter in the world, and seventh for freight. First constructed in pre-Soviet times, its network is predominantly a broad gauge railway – different to the standard gauge, which most of Europe uses....over the past year they have rebuilt sections of previously defunct lines to neighboring countries. In 2022, 28.9 million tons of grain were transported via the railways, most of which was exported. In total, just under 60 million tons of goods were exported from Ukraine. The network also transported nearly 336,000 tons of humanitarian aid. [Russian] smart missiles aren’t accurate enough to hit a moving train. They can’t even take out the Dnipro bridges. And the much vaunted Spetsnaz seem equally impotent.
  10. Fair enough Steve, it's your living room. ...But having reread the thread in detail, I believe your (and others') impressions of UV to be mistaken. However remarkable, his story hangs together IMHO. Also, unlike 'Canadian UV', there is no sign whatever here of profiteering, 'fundraising', disinformation, or personal publicity seeking, by him or his correspondent. But, never shall hear Herald more.
  11. Russians upping their game? (2 posts) https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/02/27/he-also-is-a-bit-dodgy-about-me-using-c4-to-boil-water/ In our AO, with the heavier Russian push and more capable troops in-play, we have to look at some things carefully. There is not much you can do per a more capable enemy, except be more careful, make sure you have solid support in place, and carry a heavier weapon and ammo load, usually meaning more grenades. Jamming is an ongoing issue... Russians have moved a substantial quantity of EWS equipment into our area. It was obvious that some systems were already in-play, and with my rig I can detect the Zhitel system by its characteristic emissions, so I know it was working the area.... We mainly use (satellite–ed.) phones. We do carry a radio, but rarely use it unless we are under heavy jamming. Air attacks are increasing. We have had that discussion, and if we can find one, plan to take a Stinger with us next time out, assuming someone will carry it. We have cancelled several [missions], or rerouted to a different area. We are pretty good at getting through their lines at night, but if they have enough depth, it becomes just too risky. At one point firefights were not that usual for us – by design – now they are becoming the norm. We have less space to operate in per bad guy population.... our chances of being whacked by a mine is a lot higher than enemy gunfire or artillery.... We try to use the terrain resources to plan our formations so we can react as needed, but this is hit-or-miss. ....I'm rooting for UV, but the way he describes things going, it feels like his luck could run out soon. One constant I'm noticing in much of the tactical reporting: movement is risky, riskier than it's ever been in the history of warfare. (Staying put, of course, can also be risky).
  12. Thanks, Steve, for actually addressing my intended subject matter, as opposed to whatever whacked out 'Incel' / Beach Blanket Bingo theory of warmongering other luminaries here seem to have glommed onto. Can Russian society as a whole, and its resource rich / population poor regions specifically, bear current and anticipated losses? As you say, what happens when too many journeyman pipefitters get killed or maimed? How do they back and fill? (Migrants? Chinese?) What's happening in the minds right now of plain folks in Pskov, rock-ribbbed forest home of the 76th VDV (dark red on the death map, go figure)? Adjacent to the Baltic states, contact with relatives across the border (who now increasingly identify with their new countries and with Europe, especially now they see what the Rodina has in mind for them). Nobody really knows the 'breaking point', or just what that 'breaking' means in practice, but the Home Front -- Will as @The_Capt hath taught us -- is fairly central to this 'War of Choice'. And it isn't just Putin's will here, or those in the Moscow Beltway or the Petersburg mafiya, et al. ....Everyone agrees the USSR hit such an inflection point in Afghanistan, intermixed with their wider systemic crisis. Their withdrawal surprised the Western intel establishment. And that's worth discussing.
  13. OK, so by that logic China where the one child policy led to huge numbers of aborted girls and a huge surplus of men should be the angriest horniest country on earth. OK, I think I'm done with this line of discussion.
  14. OK, yes, homo sapiens tends to breed about 102 boy babies per 100 girl babies. But come on, nobody can seriously look at that curve and see ample surplus male human material for human wave assaults, sorry. This is a red herring (or blue herring lol). Now THIS curve might argue that case. It's Syria, but probably reflects other poorer Muslim areas like Dagestan and Chechnya. And that's how Russia used to look.
  15. Hmm, where do you see that in this dataset? ...Unless 40 somethings are 'young' to you?
  16. (I searched back a dozen pages to see if this was previously posted). I love these kinds of infographics: rather than land area, each square is 15,000 Russian citizens. So the vast oblasts of Siberia show here as tiny, while metro Moscow and StP..... For comparison (from Galeev), population growth in these oblasts... red means aging/ emigrating/ not breeding. Notice Ukraine also has a demographic problem.... **** 1. So let's set aside the obvious item about Putin sending (rural) non-Slavs to die while sparing his metropolitan core base. Entirely true, but they haven't rebelled yet. 2. The above map shows 15,000 identified KIA. Actual KIA are thought to run about 10x. Let's assume regional distribution about the same (if the ID'ed are mainly officers, that may undercount non-Slavic areas). We also need to ignore non-Russians (conscripted Tajiks, Syrians). 3. So in the high casualty 'red' zones, that's 200-500 KIA out of 50,000 males (half). So up to 1% of all males in each oblast have been killed in the last year, with an additional c.2% disabled physically or mentally. 4. Military aged males (say, age 18 - 52) are (eyeballing), about half that 50,000? keeping in mind that this is an all-Russia dataset. 5. So in the 'red' areas, that's up to 500 x 3 per 25,000 = 6%. In other words, about 1 male in every 20 in their economically productive/family years is effectively lost to the Rodina. At 1 in 20, pretty much everyone in the red oblasts personally knows/of somebody in this group. Not a tipping point yet, as I'd guess everyone in these oblasts also knows of a man who has died/is nonfunctional from alcohol related causes. Also, some (20-40k?) of the dead are convicts, whom relatively few will miss. 6. But once KIAs hit 300,000 (x 3 = 10-12%), pretty much everyone in these areas has lost someone dear to them. Do they rebel then? Probably not, but at that point I suspect nobody is buying the cheery Great Russia Ultimate Victory line, or putting Z stickers on their cars. (Yes, this math is crude. Have at it)
  17. Given that the entire economy of Transnistria (and Moldova for that matter) since 1990 has been smuggling and trafficking in stolen goods, I feel like the solution involves an additional pallet, of crisp 20 Euro notes. It is 100% certain there are no-neck gentlemen in Odessa who can handle that transaction with very little fuss, to the profit and satisfaction of all parties concerned, save Mr. Putin.
  18. From TERRA, CM worthy 17 minute video of UA mech "raid" SW of Bakhmut (date unknown). One of those rare gems with long takes allowing the viewer to follow the tactical action as it unfolds. English subtitles plus editing to 'tag' the various UA vehicles. First half is artillery spotting (120 mortars and 777s deeper in). Ground advance begins at 8:50. ...This 'raid' tactic, with 3 BMPs + 1 or 2 tanks crossing an open field to bombard enemy positions (well within RPG range!), then withdrawing again the way they came once the enemy mortars start dropping, seems quite risky. Is it worth the payoff in (entrenched) enemy killed? The Ukes must have high confidence that the Wagnerite grunts don't have ranged ATGW. Anyone else care to comment? Geolocation and (less coherent) highlight reel here:
  19. Ah ok, got it thanks. I'm miles off my baseline. Buy the fake and sell what's real.... Been doing the rounds trying to validate this 'backhand blow' at Bakhmut (General Sirsky was just there, so I want it to be real), hence the flurry of posts. I'll just leave you with this one and stand down for a bit: https://turcopolier.com/tales-from-the-witch-of-ukraine-ttg/ We learned how to use our M-60 machine guns in an indirect fire mode during an exchange tour with the Royal Australian Regiment. They used a standard mortar sight attached to a tripod mounted M-60, aiming stakes and a firing table. It was the same technique used in firing mortars. I haven’t seen that taught in any US military schools, although it’s not a new technique. It was used with Vickers guns in WWI, WWII and elsewhere.
  20. French analyst HeliosRunner (who is pretty reliable) confirms nothing especially transformative is going on in Bahmut. See thread. **** But it looks like "Official Social Media War Influencer Chuck P" didn't get the memo lol. Here's an Indication and Warning for you: give this self-promoting shill a wide berth. Also, his maps are filled with what (self-promoting shill who at least knows something) Edward Tufte calls 'chartjunk'. The kind of crap you used to look at in Newsweek (when there wasn't much other way to know what was going on outside Khorramshar) and know it was BS. LIke I really need to see all the highway route markers? WTF? I miss @Grigb. [Removed]
  21. Sobering read from Adam Tooze (whom I have actually met, briefly); one of the better strategists out there IMHO. I can't get to his FT piece (paywall), but this support is on his blog Chartbook: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-197-the-ukraine-aid-reality We [Westerners] have not only a cynicism problem (bad faith) and a problem of means and ends (a policy problem), but something deeper: A reality problem.... The figure proposed by Kyiv for its [nonmilitary] financial needs is in the order of $3.5 billion per month. The United States and Europe have committed to providing enough to cover that. But as the monthly data show, those payments do not arrive in a steady or reliable fashion. The modesty of the support provided by its Western allies, leaves Ukraine’s war effort precariously balanced and the course of the war in 2023 highly uncertain. Ukraine may pull through. Its military are fighting remarkably well. Perhaps Russia will crumble. But if it does not, we should likely expect the “reality gap” to close in the direction of greater financial and military aid. More like this at Chartbook.
  22. Ukrainian EOD bro. Stay cool, light fingered and safe mate! P.S. Yes, Vladimir V. Putin does literally use ''quote fingers" in this interview!
  23. Yes, either my usual OSINT go to sources are honouring OPSEC, or the source report on this counterattack is a little over the skis. ...That said, the UA wouldn't blow a weir if they had nothing at all in mind.
  24. Posting the bigger topo from HeliosRunner here, for those who like poring over maps....
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