LongLeftFlank

Might it be productive for Ukraine to push another Marine battalion over the Dnpr, perhaps below Oleshki? Sounds like the Ukies don't have manpower to do much more right now, but even that might put another huge strain on the Russians at the far end of their line. It would certainly force an urgent response. Mind you, they've likely mined the hell out of the entire river bank area, after Krynki. Some folks have posted about drone-AI remote detection/flagging/demining solutions but no idea whether that's still in the vapourware stage. Part of this Russian activity up on their northern front could be that their supply lines here are as short as Ukraine's, for once. Economy of effort to go with their 1930s New Model Army. Where are the horses? EDIT: I remain convinced Ukraine absolutely must retake Kinburn spit, at a minimum, to help shield their Black Sea coast from, among other things, Russian naval drones (they, or rather the Chinese, have no doubt already copied the Sea Babies etc.). Especially if He Who Shall Not Be Named pushes a ceasefire in place.

"Ayy, then those eedyots would have to find someplace else to fight..."

Well I've never been totally sure that Chinese drones-in-bamboo video is undoctored either.... (speaking as someone who has had to cut effing out-of-control bamboo-from-hell)

Lynch's Dune 1984: everyone's favourite bad movie.

Good! The slow blade penetrates the shield.

Assuming a straight translation, this cri de coeur was written by a starshina (senior NCO), so perhaps born around 1980? Say what you will about Russia sux, but.... I just can't imagine a US Army master sergeant of similar vintage (high school diploma late 1990s, maybe some college) being able to organise their thoughts in writing in this way. Compare the late Roman chronicler Ammianus (5th century AD): The affair caused more joy than fear and educated flatterers immoderately praised the good fortune of the [Emperor Valens], which unexpectedly brought him so many young recruits from the ends of the earth, that by the union of his own and foreign forces he would have an invincible army. In addition, instead of the levy of soldiers, which was contributed annually by each province, there would accrue to the treasury a vast amount of gold. TL:DR For all its dysfuntions, Russian civ clearly had some things far better to offer to the world than what they are showing now... a country where chess is a spectator sport. Those of us with Russian friends would agree with this, I suspect. (But no doubt foreigners with educated German friends thought some of the same bemused thoughts in 1941) ...I can't even begin to imagine the fury I would feel, were I a Russian, at the cynical throwing away by Putin and his mafiya of an entire generation that includes among the 'meat' many well-educated and motivated people.

Agreed. But of course, while the USMAAG bodycount metrics (e.g. 'the Five O'Clock Follies') were pants for countless reasons, the Viet Cong were indeed being steadily bled white, as everyone from Giap on down admitted after the victory. I don't know if there's a strict correlation from buckets of blood to territorial losses; we believe that the boundary fortifications built from 2014-2022 are a lot harder to replace once lost, and that seems to make intuitive sense. ...But beyond that, who the hell knows what a square km, or a shattered hamlet, is worth militarily? As @The_Capt noted thousands of pages ago, just how valuable is 'high ground' nowadays in the FPV era? A nice marshy streambed or wooded balka, otoh, is still tactically useful.

Two economics snapshots that tell interesting stories: 1. RU piped gas to EU and LNG exports have surged. While you're hitting the O&G infra, and you have all those Sea Babies lying around.... 2. EU has 'grown a pair', and is looking at slapping tariffs of up to 50% on BYD EVs, to stop their auto sector going the way of their solar and wind industry (and so many others) in the face of subsidised Chinese dumping of, well, every goddam' thing... There is of course much wailing and gnashing of teeth among Green apostles who view China-subsidised (and coal powered) everything as the saviour of the planet.

Yup, we live in hope that it is, indeed.

As my dad explained it to me 50 years ago... Association (football)* = 'soccer' Rugby (football) -> 'rugger' * e.g. the FA Cup

Sushko is not to be relied on. Also, Shoigu is no political lightweight, and I wouldn't assume the siloviki can throw him under the bus even if they wished to. I doubt Prigozhin was ever his creature; the guy simply got high on himself and went rogue when Wagner was reined in. I posted some bio on Shoigu a couple thousand pages ago. Like Putin, he was a handpicked protege of Yeltsin in the late 90s. His family background/ training is in O&G construction (with the accompanying huge self enrichment opps), more than military. He had his own political party, briefly, before throwing in with United Russia. He's NOT an army careerist, in fact Putin likes him for that very reason.

With work, I'm not reading as closely on this any more. X going behind the wall didn't help. But warm UKR bodies would seem to be the rate limiting step in executing on this plan. With its current combat cadre worn out from 2 years of high intensity warfare, and in the drone era, probably its last mile support arms as well, UKR just doesn't seem to be up today for training up and manning the '150+ hi-tech Jaeger battalions' that they would need to make this work. Don't honestly know whether it's 'can't' or 'won't', likely a bit of both. Demographically possible, perhaps, if they truly mobilised the entire population 18+, including women, at the cost of what's left of their nonwar economy. But I now doubt that any Ukrainian leader, even a military junta, could execute such a strategy. Simply saying 'you must do it because the alternative are worse' unfortunately doesn't make it happen. My cursory read right now is the Ukes are exhausted and desperate for something, anything that will make Russia quit, or at least halt in place.

Plus ca change...